Devonte Graham vs Dallas Mavericks: NBA Prop Predictions 12/3/21
What is up Karma Nation! With the NBA in full swing, I will now be introducing my prop predictions article for the NBA and the NFL. Last week, we hit last week with Brandon Ingram over 3.5 assists but we are here again this week to see what edges we can find tonight. Today we will be looking at my prop prediction for Devonte Graham vs Dallas Mavericks; an assist prop I love tonight.
My first step in the research process is taking a look at how Vegas is projecting these games. Where the high-scoring games are and where the low-scoring games are. You must be aware of one thing for NBA props if you are betting an over in a game that could blow out. Games I normally avoid are ones that have a double-digit spread. Usually, those are the ones with a higher chance of a blowout. Honestly, any game can blow out. All it takes is a hot-shooting third quarter from one team and a cold-shooting third quarter for another team for these games to get out of hand. That is the issue with living and dying by the 3 which teams are more likely to do nowadays. Even the best scorers can miss wide-open shots, in some games, your shot just isn’t falling and defense doesn’t matter.
Highest total: Nets vs Timberwolves 222
Lowest Total: Heat vs Pacers 206.5
Highest Spread: Jazz (-8) vs Celtics
This is mainly a play I am looking at on Prizepicks to avoid the juice that books offer. If you have not heard of Prizepicks it is a great alternative to sportsbetting which therefore is legal in states where sportsbetting is not legal. Use promo code KARMA if you are not signed up yet to get a deposit match up to $100. So you can bet on Devonte Graham vs Dallas Mavericks on prizepicks or a sportsbook take you pick.
We have him projected as a B graded prop tonight against the Dallas Mavericks. Projecting him for 4.42 assists.
Graham and the Pelicans have not had a friendly schedule leading to a plethora of blowouts skewing stats for these players. Graham has been involved in three blowouts since returning to the lineup five games ago.
This is mainly a minutes equals assists play. In games where he has played at least 29 minutes, he has gone over this total in 14 out of 19 games this season. In the two games, he has not played more than 29 minutes he has gone under in both of those games.
Graham also gets a boost from the loss of Josh Hart. Subtracting another ball-handler and high assist guy will always lead to more assists. With Hart off the floor and both Ingram and Graham on the floor, Graham is averaging 4.8 assists per 30 minutes this season.
Although, the Pelicans are coming off a blowout loss to the Mavericks' last game. I do not expect the same outcome tonight as the Mavericks will be without Porzingis and last game Luka dropped over 20 points in the first quarter, an unsustainable outcome moving forward.
As always, all prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Join today and get a bonus deposit match of up to $1,000! Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook. Check out where to bet to find other sportsbooks in your state.
I’m sure a majority of my following is familiar with the prop sites Prizepicks, MonkeyKnifeFight, and Underdog Fantasy. If you are not familiar, click on the links and use promo code KARMA for a deposit bonus. If you are a new sign-up for the site, send me a DM in discord and I can get you access to all our premium plays for FREE!
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