Justin Jefferson vs Detroit Lions: NFL Prop Predictor (Week 13)

What is up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another week of my NFL Prop Ticket Article this week. In this article, I will break down my top 5 props of the week. We have an exciting week 12 on our hands. There is plenty of solid matchups and mispriced props this week to take advantage of including Justin Jefferson vs Detroit Lions.  To gain access to the rest of my prop bets join our discord for FREE. We continue in the sweet spot of prop betting outside of dealing with the bye weeks. I can’t believe it is already week 13 of the NFL season and we are coming to the end of the regular season. The good news, there is still money to be made all the way through the playoffs. On top of my free play, click the link to get access to all our premium tools on our site. Top props have been fantastic this year. If you locked in all the A- or better props you would be up 10.73 units if you bet one unit on plus money props and to win one unit on minus money props. It has a record of 228-197 (53.6% hit rate).

Justin Jefferson vs Detroit Lions
Justin Jefferson Over 84.5 Rec Yards -115 1.15u tw 1u:

Just like Mattison, Jefferson gets the advantage of another game against the Lions without Dalvin Cook. This could be part of the reason his splits with and without Cook are so drastic in his career.

 

As you can see by the graph he has at least 118 receiving yards in all four games he has played without Dalvin Cook since entering the league last season. He is averaging 82 receiving yards in his career with Cook and 135.3 yards without Dalvin Cook. This comes from getting three more targets per game which have led to 3 more targets per game.

The Lions have been destroyed by WR 1s all season and it should continue this week. Outside of the week they played the Eagles, they decided to run all over them instead of passing, the Lions have allowed a WR to get 97+ yards on them in all but three games this season. Two were against the Steelers and the Browns which happened two of the last three weeks. One team was starting Mason Rudolph and the other had Baker without Odell struggling to even walk off the field. The Steelers were still able to get Johnson 83 yards. The other under was Marquise Brown who dropped 3 touchdown passes leading to only 53 yards. I expect another huge game from Jefferson this week.

Prizepicks has him at 80.5 Rec Yards

Alexander Mattison vs Detroit Lions

Alexander Mattison Over 80.5 Rushing Yards -115 1.15u tw 1u:

 

As you can see Mattison has gotten the luxury of playing the Lions 50% of the time when Cook misses the game. Now guess what? He plays them again this week. Somehow Cook continues to miss games against the Lions. This makes it so much easier to plug and play Mattison since he gets an elite matchup every time.

On the season the Lions are allowing the 4th most rushing yards per game with 133.9 yards per game. This coming just after they only allowed 68 rushing yards against the Bears on Thanksgiving. So, this number may be a little skewed. Struggling on the ground should not come as a surprise as the Lions allowed the 5th most rushing yards per game last season at a similar total of 134.9 yards per game. There is a huge Oline/Dline matchup mismatch for the Lions. They allow 1.57 yards before contact that ranks 6th most in the league. On the other side, the Vikings help the RBs get 1.72 yards before contact ranking 4th best in the league. This means the Vikings should have no issues controlling the trenches and helping Mattison run with ease to this over.

On Prizepicks he is down at 74.5 Rushing yards

Joe Mixon vs LA Chargers

Joe Mixon  Over 90.5 Rush Yards -115 1.15u tw 1u

This general rule will help you win money each week. Take the running back rushing yards over against the Chargers as a favorite. I saw favorite because this helps the running back get increased volume on top of efficiency. The Bengals are coming into this game as 3-point favorites and one of the hottest teams in the league. If you remove the 34-31 loss to the Jets on Halloween. They have outscored opponents 189 to 67. With the average score being 37.8 to 13.4. Mixon is coming off back-to-back 100-yard rushing games against two tough run defenses in the Steelers and the Browns. Expect a much easier road to 100 yards for Mixon this week.

The Chargers are allowing 145.3 rushing yards per game, dead last in the league. They only trail the Texans allowing 2.1 yards before contact per rush attempt. This is due to the defensive scheme the Chargers run. They run nickel and two high safeties to prevent big plays. This is going to be the game plan for the chargers as the Bengals have one of the best-receiving cores in the league and a top deep threat in Ja’Marr Chase. I expect the Chargers to allow Mixon to beat them this week.

On Prizepicks he is down at 86.5 Rush yards

Elijah Mitchell vs Seattle Seahawks

Elijah Mitchell Over 87.5 Rush Yards 1.15u tw 1u:

It had seemed last week that Deebo Samuel was becoming Christian McCaffrey 2.0 and taking way too much of the running workload. Over the last two weeks, Samuel had 145 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns but only 27 receiving yards on two receptions. This is an insane number for a WR. Especially for a WR that was on pace for 1740 yards and to average more than 100 yards per game. During week 11 against the Jags, I figured he was getting a large workload in the running game because Mitchell was out but that was not the case running the ball six times last week when Mitchell was active.

With Deebo out of the lineup this week it is Mitchell’s time to shine again. Not as important but just as encouraging, Trey Sermon is also out this week. That means the 49ers are left with Mitchell and Jeff Wilson to carry the load. Clearly, they do not have a ton of faith in Wilson this season since they are giving Deebo this massive workload in the rushing game. Potentially due to his bad games against the Jaguars where he only had 50 yards on 19 attempts in a blowout win 30-10.  

This is also an elite matchup for Mitchell. The Seahawks are allowing 2.08 yards before first contact as well as allowing 124.9 rushing yards per game. It also helps that the Seahawks have been on the decline with Russ struggling so game script should be in the 49ers' favor.

On Prizepicks he is also at 83.5 Rush yards

TY Hilton vs Houston Texans

TY Hilton Over 33.5 Rec Yards -120 1.20u tw 1u:

This is more of a fun narrative bet instead of a research-based bet. TY Hilton is known for going off against the Texans in his career. We even saw him go off against them earlier in the year. I am sure we can all agree Hilton is not having a great season. He has 155 yards and 13 receptions on 21 targets in five games played this season. Interestingly enough, he has faced the Texans already once this season and has gone for four receptions and 80 yards on four targets. So that means over half his yards came during one game this season.

Now let’s compare it to years past. He has faced the Texans 19 times in his career, he has eight 100 yards games and one 200 yard game against them. He has at least 70 yards in 14 out of 19 games played against them. Although, you may tell me he’s not the same as he used to be. He is no longer that elite talent as he was in years past. While I do agree with that even last year where he averaged 44.7 yards in games outside of the Texans and averaged 90.5 yards in the two games against the Texans. He just loves destroying the Texans, let’s see if that trend continues again this week.

Prizepicks has Hilton at 29.5 Rec Yards

As always, all prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Join today and get a bonus deposit match of up to $1,000! Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook. Check out where to bet to find other sportsbooks in your state. 
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