PGA Expert Picks: Sentry Tournament of Champions

Welcome to the 2022 PGA Tour season! It feels good to be back and brinigng Karma Nation with premium golf content to aid in your betting picks each week. The Tour starts this week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawaii. This is a unique and small field as it features the winners of each tournament from last season. Kapalua Plantation Course is the host course and is a rare Par 73 that these golfers will be scoring on all week--the winning score will likely be between -20 and -30. Kapalua is a fairly open course and shorter course that will leave golfers with shorter approach shots and plenty of chances to score. The greens are not difficult to hit so GIR should be rather irrelevant this week while SG Approach and Proximity should be key stats to look at this week. Let's take a look at a few of the best bets for this week. Please note that I will be identifying a few outirght bets with the smaller field so Top 10s and 20s will not be as much of a focus this week.

 

Course: Kapalua Plantation Course -- Maui, Hawaii 

Length: 7,515 yards

Par: 73

Defending Champion: Harris English

Purse: $8.2 Million

FedEx Cup Points: 500 Points to the Winner

Key Stats: SG Approach, SG Ball Striking, Proximity, SG Putting Bermuda

 

Xander Schauffele | Outright +1200 (1 Unit)

Xander won this tournament back in 2019 and had a 2nd place finish in 2020 and a T-5 finish in 2021. Xander thrives in smaller field events setting him up for success this week. Kapalua has some wide open fairways where he will be able to let the driver loose and gain some extra distance allowing him to display his superior iron play and take dead aim at the pins. I like his odds in this smaller field as he will have similar odds later in the year in much bigger fields and bigger tournaments, Go ahead and take advantage of this number this week. 

 

Jordan Spieth | Outright +2000 (1 Unit)

Spieth finally showed life last year and vaulted back up the world golf rankings and ended his winless drought at the Valero Texas Open. The wide fairways should also benefit Spieth as he is not the most accurate driver off of the tee. Spieth is still one of the best iron players in the world, and anyone who tries to tell you differently is suffering from recency bias or just isn't a fan because his approach game is elite and his putting has come back around. A few years ago you went from automatically assuming Spieth would make anything inside of 10 feet to hoping he wouldn't three putt from 8 feet. His irons are back. His putter is back. I think Spieth is ready to show everyone that his all-around game is back and he will want to make a statement and get off to a fast start this year.

 

Billy Horschel | Outright +7000 (1 Unit)

Looking down the list of golfers I wanted to find someone with longer odds that appears to be a good course fit. I landed on Horschel here at 70-1 odds. His win equity and chances to win are much higher than some of the golfers priced with shorter odds. He did win the Dell Match Play and the BMW PGA Championship last year and absolutely loves putting on Bermuda greens. His putting ability on Bermuda paired with his iron play from short distances should have him competing late on Sunday afternoon. 70-1 odds for a guy like Horschel in this small of a field seems like a steal. Bet him with confidence and for a large potential payout.