PGA Expert Picks: The Genesis Invitational
I gave this advice last week but if you are not a member of the BetKarma Discord Channel then you need to join as we hit yet another outright on Scottie Scheffler after discussion and bet recommendations! This article is a great starting place to make your weekly bets but more storylines, further statistical analysis, and additional picks are discussed and proposed in the channel throughout the week. BetKarma Nation had another profitable week and looks to cash in again at one of the most exciting tournaments of the year--The Genesis Invitational.
Riviera Country Club plays host again to Tiger Woods' Genesis Invitational. Riviera demands superb ball-striking to win here. Driving accuracy and green in regulation are usually lower than average at Riviera so I will be putting an emphasis on short game here this week. Driving distance is not necessarily a strict requirement but it will be an advantage for the longer drivers this week. I already referenced the difficulty in hitting greens at Riviera so the longer hitters should have more scoring opportunities over the shorter hitters that will have approach shots of over 175 yards into the longer and much more difficult Par 4s that play over 450 yards. I will be targeting ball strikers that are gaining strokes on approach and that can recover when these greens are missed. I am also going to factor in tournament history and experience. This is one of those courses where experience plays a role in knowing when and how you can miss the greens without bringing big numbers into play. Let's take a look at a few picks for this week.
Course: The Genesis Invitaional-- Pacific Palisades, California
Length: 7,322 yards
Defending Champion: Max Homa
Purse: $12 Million
FedEx Cup Points: 500 Points to the Winner
Key Stats: SG ARG, SG Ball-Striking, Drivng Distance, Par 4s: 450-500
Collin Morikawa | Outright +1800 (1 Unit)
Morikawa may not be in the best form over the last couple of weeks but he did have a T-5 at the Sentry TOC, T-5 at the Hero World Challenge in December, and a T-7, and 2nd place finish since October. He is also one of the best ball-strikers on the planet and gained more than nine strokes on approach here last year. His T-43 finish was due to his putting that cost him from being in contention over the weekend. He has plenty of distance and I am not concerned with his ball striking. If he is gaining strokes on approach that is similar to last year and can turn his putter around then he can win this tournament by a stroke or two on Sunday.
Dustin Johnson | Outright +1600 (1 Unit)
Two or three years ago you could barely find a number on DJ that was longer than 8-1 or 9-1. Now we get a "not as hot" DJ at a course that he has dominated in the past. He won this tournament in 2017 and has three other Top 10 finishes as well as a T-16 here since 2017. I like this number for DJ. This course is going to be frustrating and there is not a better player to put up with that frustration and overcome a few bad shots than DJ. I mentioned earlier that past experience and success at Riviera would be important this week--other than Bubba, no one has had a better run here than DJ. He's been quiet--a little too quiet--this might be the week he adds another trophy to the trophy case and claims a victory as Tiger watches on late into the afternoon on Sunday.
Thomas Pieters | Outright +7000 (1 Unit), Top 10 +500 (1 Unit)
Pieters may be a pretty popular pick this week at 70-1 odds when you look at a little bit of past success at Riviera paired with his recent form. He finished T-2 here in 2017 and has not finished worse than T-25 in his last five starts worldwide including two wins. He may not have as much success here as others in the field but Pieters is a great ball-striker and a guy that you can take a flyer on at 70-1. I will also lay a unit on a Top 10 finish. His form right now is among the best in the field.