NFL Week 10 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 9 Record: 2-2-1 / Overall: 19-23-3 (42.2%)

Let’s get this out of the way early.  The Packers STINK at football.

I called this in my very first article I wrote for Bet Karma.  However, I’d be lying if I said I’d hit my under 11-win total by mid-November.  The Lions/Packers Over 49.5 pick was dead by the end of the first quarter when there had already been THREE redzone turnovers.  Two of which by Aaron Rodgers who very much looks like he’d rather be anywhere else than a football field.

We travel down to Atlanta where the covering king Falcons (+3) provided us a heartbreaking push.  Tied up with a few minutes left, Atlanta picked up a fumble and rumbled the other way only to have the linebacker fumble the ball BACK to LA.  The Chargers would then kick the winning field goal as the clock hit zeroes.  Sad.

The 4 PM slate was very good to us starting with the scorching hot Seahawks (+2) who beat the lowly Cardinals outright in Arizona.  Pete Carroll has done an incredible job with this team. 

In a matchup from last year’s divisional round the Bucs (-2.5) and Tom Brady orchestrated a vintage yet surreal comeback win.  Down 4 in a complete snoozer, the Rams couldn’t muster one first down after a goal line stand giving Brady the ball back with 40 seconds left.  You know how that story ends.  Huge win for the Bucs and cover for us.

I’m ice cold on Monday night picks and the Saints (+2) made sure I stayed that way with a putrid effort in front of their fans.

We have hit the double-digit weeks and the season feels like its moving at warp speed!

 

Week 10

 

5. New Orleans Saints AT Pittsburgh Steelers (+1 -110) – 1 PM – FOX

I can’t believe I’m betting the Steelers in 2022 but this is the spot to do it.

Pittsburgh is coming off a bye where future Hall of Fame coach Mike Tomlin is 11-4.  He also has an insane record ATS as an underdog.  I’ve seen conflicting numbers during my research but it’s well over 65% as a dog.

The Saints are going nowhere fast after getting blown out at home on national TV last Monday to the Ravens.  Their QB play is just nowhere near good enough to threaten defenses in the NFL.

Speaking of defenses, the Steelers are getting the reigning defensive player of they year back TJ Watt.  He is a complete game changer in this league and for this team.  I expect him and that d line to come early and often at Andy Dalton and force him into mistakes.

Speaking of mistakes, the Saints are tied for the league lead in giveaways with 17 and are last in the league in turnover differential.  I see this one coming down the wire with the Steelers winning the game at home.

 

4. Seattle Seahawks VS Tampa Bay Buccaneers (UNDER 45 -110) – 9:30 AM – NFL Net *Game played in Munich, Germany

No-one knows what to expect in this one, the first game ever in Munich, Germany.

Here’s what I do know however, the Bucs can’t score points.  It’s a miracle they even made it all the way up to 13 last week against the Rams.  Here’s what else I know; the Bucs defense still has stars who fly around.

As you all know, I LOVE the Seahawks.  No team in the league has made me more money than Seattle.  And I absolutely think they can win this game.  Unfortunately, the line was +2.5 and that spooked me over to the under.

I think Seattle is going to be able to control the clock with their stellar run game and the efficiency of Geno Smith will provide sustaining drives.  On the other side, Tom Brady is going to carve out first downs and produce the field goals he has all season long. 

London games always go under so why not play that game in Germany as well.  I just don’t see any way this game reaches 45.

 

3. Denver Broncos AT Tennessee Titans (-2.5 -115) – 1 PM – CBS

I’m back on my west coast team traveling east game again!

This one is a bit different with the Broncos coming off a bye but the fact remains, when mediocre to bad west coast teams travel for 1 PM games, they usually go down. 

The Titans meanwhile are coming off a devastating loss in Kansas City last weekend.  They had the Chiefs on the ropes as a two TD underdog and couldn’t hold off Patrick Mahomes for the win.  QB Ryan Tannehill is back this week and although he won’t make you jump for joy, he at least can complete passes to WRs.  Something rookie Malik Willis was unable to do in his two games at the helm.

The Broncos labored their way into their bye week with a disappointing 3-5 record.  I can’t see them covering a short 2.5-point line against an experienced and extremely well coached Titans team in their building.

 

2. Indianapolis Colts AT Las Vegas Raiders (-4 -110) – 4:05 PM – CBS

The Colts are the epitome of a dumpster fire.

The season has been marred with injury, controversy and now firings.  Former head coach Frank Reich was ousted mid-week and with one of the most head scratching decisions these eyes have ever seen, Colt legend Jeff Saturday was named head coach.

Saturday has, checks notes…

ZERO coaching experience at the NFL or collegiate level.  He was sitting on ESPN last week arguing with Stephen A. Smith over Tom Brady’s divorce.  Now, he finds himself with the headset on leading men in the greatest league on the planet.

Even typing out that paragraph is wild to me.

The Raiders stink too but if there was ever a chance for them to turn their season around its this game, at home, with their much-maligned head coach going against the team he spurned just a few short years ago.

This is a principal, “have to bet against the guy who was an ESPN analyst last week” bet.

 

1. Detroit Lions AT Chicago Bears (-3 +100) – 1 PM – FOX

After years of futility, the Bears may have found themselves a Quarterback.

Justin Fields has found his groove of late and using his legs as lethal weapons.  He ran for over 170 yds last week against Miami and was an absolute nightmare to contain.

That hasn’t translated to wins… yet.

I believe this is the week the Bears do enough to beat a division foe in their building.  The Lions are coming off an incredibly emotional and wacky win vs the hapless Packers.  But credit to Coach Dan Campbell and his team.  Unfortunately for them, they’re just not very good.

Campbell is a crazy 0-11-1 on the road as head coach of the Lions and has lost six straight games coming off a win.  The Bears boast the #1 rushing offense in the entire league.  The Lions are the 2nd worst rush defense.  This is clear strength on weakness and I’m not going to overthink this.  Take Da Bears.

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on Twitter!: @davecostabile