Mountain West 2023 Win Total Picks

Welcome back to College Football Win Totals. So excited to be back for my second year with BetKarma and make everyone some money! I am back with my second win total conference of the 2023 season with the Mountain West Conference. Make sure if you missed it to look back at my picks for the MAC conference. This season should be electric with a very top-heavy conference race. Let’s discuss which teams are flying over and soaring under their win totals.

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1. Boise State Broncos- OV/UN 8.5 wins:

                 The Boise State Broncos are back and will rise to the top of the Mountain West. The schedule is demanding out-of-conference with key matchups at Washington, vs UCF, and at Memphis. I think that screams 1-2 and road dates at Fresno State and Utah State will be challenging. I think taking the extra juice for the under is the right move. The Broncos will still win the conference but responsibly hammer the under.

The play: Under 8.5 

2. Air Force Falcons OV/UN 8.5 wins:

                   I love the service academies. The Falcons of Air Force once again will be a force in this conference. Returning eight starters on defense will make the Falcons the best defensive unit in the conference. Looking at their non-conference schedule I love this Over! I think they are the best service academy this season and should also beat their other two opponents. Ride with me with this heavy unit play for the over.

The play: Over 8.5

3. San Jose State Spartans- OV/UN 5.5 wins:

                   Call me crazy but I really do believe the right things are going on at San Jose State. They will get third in this conference because I believe they win the home date against Fresno State. The non-conference schedule is crazy hard that’s why they have a small win total. I believe they will go 6-6 and reach a bowl game. I like the over and don’t be surprised if San Jose State gives Oregon State trouble early in the season.

The play: Over 5.5

4. Fresno State Bulldogs- OV/UN 8.5 wins:

                    Fresno State loses their two biggest playmakers including star quarterback Jake Haener. There will be some regression with the Bulldogs, but they have enough pieces to still be very good. Another Mountain West team challenging themselves out of conference with road dates at Purdue and Arizona State. Looking only at their win total I love the under 8.5. The main reason why is they play all the other top conference teams on the road except for Boise. The schedule is too difficult for me to bet the over.

The play: Under 8.5

5. Wyoming Cowboys- OV/UN 6 wins:

                        The Wyoming Cowboys are the sleeper team in the Mountain West heading into 2023. With the return of 15 starters, Wyoming is prime for a strong season. I like this over mainly because even if they get six it will be a push. I am predicting five conference wins followed by one or two wins out of conference. If they beat App State at home expect to cash this ticket.

The play: Over 6

6. San Diego State Aztecs- OV/UN 6.5 wins:

                         The Aztecs are in a little bit of a transition phase. New offensive coordinator Ryan Lidnley will look to revamp an offense from 2022 that was absolutely abysmal. Returning only two starters on offense will be challenging and the schedule doesn’t give SDSU any favors. Facing two PAC-12 opponents with playing in the top four of the conference will be difficult. I love this under and think it becomes a lock if they lose to a quality Ohio team in Week 0.

The play: Under 6.5

7. Utah State Aggies- OV/UN 5.5 wins:

                          The Aggies of Utah will look to get back to the conference mountain top where they were two years ago. The defense is the main issue losing a lot of talent to the portal. The offense will be good quarterback Cooper Legas, running back Robert Briggs, and receiver Terrell Vaughn. I think the Aggies will be 4-4 in the conference and the win total comes down to facing James Madison. I don’t love either side but plus money I would definitely look at taking this over.

The play: Over 5.5

8. UNLV Rebels- OV/UN 5.5 wins:

                           The Rebels of UNLV might not be great but worth a watch in 2023. The Rebels will score points and give up points making for video-like scores throughout this upcoming season. I do think UNLV will squeak the over going 6-6 and reaching a bowl game. If they can win at UTEP they will go bowling. This win total I would stay away from in all honesty.

The play: Over 5.5

9. Colorado State Rams- OV/UN 4.5 wins:

                            The Rams of Colorado will hope to improve under year two of head coach Jay Norvell. The offense was a joke last season and will need to drastically improve if they want to compete for a bowl game. The out-of-conference schedule is hard playing two PAC-12 teams including rival Deon Sanders and Colorado. I like the under in this spot as I expect Middle Tennessee to complete the home-and-home sweep from last year.

The play: Under 4.5

10.  Nevada Wolfpack- OV/UN 4.5 wins:

                            I want to take a flyer on the Nevada Wolfpack. I think their out-of-conference schedule provides an opportunity for an early-season surprise. A home game against Kansas and a road affair at Texas State are winnable in my eyes. If they were to split those two games I believe they will reach the over. Returning six starters on defense including key offensive transfer pickups will be the difference in cashing this over.

The play: Over 4.5

11. Hawaii Warriors- OV/UN 3.5 wins:

                            One of the best parts of college football is late Saturday night on the island. As of late, however, it has been favorable for the road opponents and I don’t expect much to change in 2023. I do love the over though because I believe they will take advantage of New Mexico State and Albany. That would mean just winning two games for the rest of the season. I see this Warrior team winning at least four games because of the long travel time for road opponents. 

The play: Over 3.5

12.  New Mexico Lobos- OV/UN 3.5 wins:

                             Shield your eyes away from the worst team in the Mountain West. I have them going winless in conference play this season. They have a lot of departures from last year's bad Lobo squad and should expect another tough season in the Land of Enchantment. I love this under as this will be a heavy unit bet for me this season. 

The play: Under 3.5

 

Conference Championship Exact Matchup: Boise State vs Air Force (+300)

Conference Champion Winner Future: Air Force (+360)

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