NFL Week 9 - David's Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” game bets series.

Each week I'll be bringing you my favorite plays (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet, please utilize our easy-to-use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 8 Record: 2-2-1 / Overall: 19-20-1 (48.7%)

• I went to the well on Tomlin and the Steelers (+2) one too many times.  The Jags are legit, and they were able to slug through a comfy win in the Steel City.
• The Packers (+1) stink.  That’s the recap, they’re very bad.  Awful pick.
• The Cowboys (-6) was one of the easiest bets of the season and there’s nothing better than hitting your #1 pick of the week without breaking a sweat.  The Rams are crumbling and as injuries continue to build, they may totally fold.
• I’m not sure Giants (+3) fans can ever forgive Brian Daboll for coaching this season like a neutered dog.  To not go for a 4th and 1 to win in a truly disgusting football game with a billion punts and no points was sad.  Graham Gano too, he can take a walk.  PAINFUL push here.
• We hit our #2 pick of the week in what was a sloppy but good game in Seattle (-3.5).  Don’t look now but the Hawks are 5-2 and atop the NFC West.

 

Week 9

5. New York Giants AT Las Vegas Raiders (UNDER 37.5 -108) – 4:25 PM – FOX

In our “Dave, I really don’t want to watch this” Game of the Week, we travel to Sin City for Giants/Raiders.

Vegas finally fired that bloat face Josh McDaniels this past week.  He gets to boast many things: Super Bowl rings as a coordinator, a two-time failed head coach, and the only team in history to not hit their team total over in 8 straight weeks to open a season.  How do you have Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers and never score 3 touchdowns in a game?  McDaniels found a way.

Ok, enough about Josh (hopefully forever).  Enter new head coach and former Giant great, Antonio Pierce.  I’ve always been a fan of Pierce as a player and listening to some sound bytes this week, there is no doubt the boys are going to play hard for this guy.  Unfortunately, the Raiders have burned me too many times to get to the point of betting their side. 

But then I saw this under.  This truly grotesque, morbid, filthy under… 37.5. 

Listen, is it fun?  NO!  ZERO FUN!  But the Giants may be the only offense that can compete with Vegas in “Shield your eyes” status.  QB Daniel Jones is likely to return but that certainly won’t light up the scoreboard.  Darren Waller is out, Saquon is limping again and the WRS stink. 

Stat time – Giants games are 7-1 to the under this season including seven straight.  All three Raiders home games have also gone under the total this year. 

The Raiders will play hard like I said, but there will undoubtedly be some miscues and confusion with the new staff settling in and a first-time head coach.  I fully expect a 13-10 “barnburner”.

 

4. Indianapolis Colts AT Carolina Panthers (+2.5 -110) – 4:05 PM – CBS

Sorry everyone, the slop continues at #4 as we travel over to Charlotte for a tantalizing Colts/Panthers matchup.

Carolina isn’t very good; we know that hell they know that.  But gosh darn it are they giving it their all.  Coach Frank Reich has relinquished the play calling to young upstart OC Thomas Brown.  This move proved fruitful last week in a win against the Texans.  Brown put QB Bryce Young in shotgun for 96% of the game and operated solely out of 11 personnel.  The beauty of this move is that it kept things simple for Young with no substitutions and confusion allowing him to just play ball.  This strategy earned Carolina their first win and Coach Brown got the game ball.

Now, obviously there’s tape on this now for the Colts to analyze but I’m betting that won’t matter.  Indy was a fun story for a couple weeks behind Gardner Minshew and his “Magic” but that well has run dry to the tune of NINE giveaways, under 60% completion percentage and an 0-3 record since becoming a full-time starter.  The plucky underdog of Indy is over in my opinion.

Speaking of underdogs, here’s our fun stat for this one: Teams that have gone from underdogs to favorites throughout the week are 43-88 ATS since 2019.  Essentially if you open as a dog and get bet up all week long, you ain’t covering.  That’s the Colts. (Action Network)

I see Bryce continuing to thrive in this new offense, make enough plays to keep this thing tight and maybe win it outright.

 

3. Dallas Cowboys AT Philadelphia Eagles (-3 -108) – 4:25 PM – FOX

Alright, we bounce back entertainment wise with what I feel is the game of the week in South Philadelphia.

These teams don’t like each other, and their fan bases have true hatred.  That’s all well and good but this isn’t about that.  This is about being the best team in the NFC East and more so the entire conference.  The winner of this game will be in the driver seat for both.

Dallas has had a very “Cowboys” like season.  They have absolutely smashed bad teams at home, lost by 100 in their biggest test at San Fran, and had a complete brainfart in Arizona.  This is what they do, every year.  So here we are again in a massive spot with the world’s eyes on FOX against the defending NFC champion Eagles. 

I’m sure you’ve seen the Dak Prescott stats in division this week and they are impressive.  He’s smashed the NFC East throughout his career.  However, this is shockingly the first matchup in the last 2 seasons where both teams come in with the star QBs healthy and scorching hot.   When Dak was hurt, Philly won at home and when Jalen was hurt the ‘Boys won on Christmas Eve 2022.  There is no excuses Sunday, and this game will rule.

Philadelphia is top 10 in every overall metric on both sides of the ball except pass defense.  The secondary has been shaky to say the least, especially last week when they made Sam Howell look like Joe Montana.  However, they have another week of former All Pro safety Kevin Byard getting comfortable and I expect them to play much better in this game.

This always comes back to the trenches for me in these big games and the Birds have the best offensive and defensive line tandem in football.  Want more?  They also have the best 3rd and 4th down offense in the league.  Oh, and they’re top 5 in time of possession as well.  They just dominate up front.  They also dominate at home and enter this game 3-0 on the season and 12-2 over the past two including the playoffs.

The Cowboys shockingly have the fewest big plays (plays of 25 or more) in the league and the run game has been nonexistent since moving to Tony Pollard full time. 

I expect the Eagles to punch Dallas in the face for 60 minutes and Dak to be “Dak against good teams” as Philly puts their stamp on the conference Sunday afternoon.

 

2. Los Angeles Chargers AT New York Jets (+3.5 -110) – MONDAY  8:15 PM – ESPN

I don’t usually put the Monday night game in the Top 5 but I love this bet so much I had to make an exception.

The Chargers are a public darling.  The Chargers just beat the Bears by a million on national TV.  The Chargers have Justin Herbert who looks healthier by the minute.  But let us not forget, the Chargers are also perennial teases, and this team is exactly like the many before it that fail when the world is ready to jump aboard.

The Jets are quite possibly the luckiest team to ever exist.  You can point to key moments in all their wins that could have gone the other way easily.  But sometimes, you make your own luck and maybe this team is destined to do something special.  Ok, let’s not go that far, but clearly things happen for the green team in MetLife Stadium.  Especially under the lights. 

Don’t look now but QB Zach Wilson has played better of late with no INTs in 4 of the last 5 games.  They’ve won 3 in a row and have been in every game this season except the beating they took in Dallas the week after Rodgers went down. 

LA is 0-3 straight up and against the spread against winning teams this season.  The defense is atrocious when they’re not getting to the quarterback.  They give up 6 yards a play for God sake including 8 (EIGHT!) plays of 40 or more.  They are always a play away from letting an opposing team pop the crowd and I expect Jets Nation to be LOUD in this one.

I just don’t see any scenario where this game isn’t tight late in the 4th quarter, and I want the home team who is on a roll AND getting the 3.5 points in that scenario.

 

1. Buffalo Bills AT Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5 -110) – 8:20 PM – NBC

We finish up the Top 5 back in Cincy for one of the most intriguing matchups of the season.

Right off the top, you will be reminded about Damar Hamlin all day and what he went through in this game, in this building just 10 months ago.  I wrote about Hamlin last year and I just want to say I'm so happy that he continues to live his dream.  

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Some may tell you that this matchup has lost its luster since both teams have three losses just 8 weeks into the season.  All that does is make me MORE excited.  This is a massive game for these teams and fan bases.  The winner will use this victory as a springboard to being the team we all thought they would be.  The loser has a true hole to dig out of with teams like the Dolphins and Ravens above them respectively in division. 

Cincy is back baby.  They have forced eight turnovers in the last three games.  Joe Burrow is on FIRE completing 78% of his passes since Week 5.  They come into this tilt after handling the 49ers in their house by two TDs.  I took that game as a true statement to the rest of the league that the Bengals have indeed, returned.

Buffalo has serious issues on both sides of the ball.  Mainly on defense where injuries have piled up as high as a skyscraper and getting a stop in key spots has been a chore.  Offensively hasn’t been the Bills we know and love either.  QB Josh Allen is clearly banged up and has 8 INTs to his name so far.  The run game goes in and out and they make a lot of mistakes. 

Stat of the game = The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games.  That’s their longest ATS losing streak in the past 40 (Forty!) seasons (courtesy of ESPN).    

I love this spot for Cincy to peel themselves away from the middle of the AFC pack and start their ascension towards the top of the division as that Ravens matchup looms large 11 days from now in Baltimore. 

 

Good Luck!

 

Written by David Costabile

Follow me on X!: @davecostabile