KBO May 25 - 26 Writeup

May 25th – 26th

KBO NOTES – DAY 10

OVERALL RECORD: +46.5U (51-38-3)

Record on 3U Plays: 8-1-1 (+19U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 2-4 (-5U)

Record on 2U Plays: 30-12-2 (+34U)

Record on 1U Plays: 18-16-1 (-1U)

Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or greater): 4-9 (-.5U)

 

G1: NC Dinos (14-3, -205) VS Kiwoom Heroes (10-8, +150) O/U 9.5

Dinos:

SP: Chang-mo Koo (10/10)

            2019 ERA: 3.20

            2020 Stats: 0.41 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 22 IP, 25 K, 8 H (starts vs Samsung/KT/Doosan)

Everyone's favorite lefty in the KBO is BACK!! After hammering the living daylights out of every possible under in his last start vs Doosan – where all he did was throw 8 innings of 2-hit, 1-run, 7-strikeout ball against the best-hitting team in the league – you can predict where I’m going with this article today. Before I even start looking at anything else, I’m automatically hitting Kiwoom TT UN 3.5 – they will score at most 3 – and immediately looking at every line involving Dinos winning, along with all the unders. Predictably, NC is juiced out the wazoo, but when you have a pitcher like Koo on the mound, the possibilities are sort of endless. The Dinos have been putting together really solid games on both sides of the ball – other than a 5-3 stinker against Hanwha last week – and now have a fully team with their ace on the mound. Honestly, I think the most important thing in this game is actually Kiwoom’s starting pitcher. We know what we’re getting from Koo, so let’s see what we’re getting from Kiwoom.

HITTING: 3rd in average and runs

Heroes:

SP: Seung-ho Lee (3/10)

            2019 ERA: 4.48

            2020 Stats: 4.91 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 14 IP, 16 H (starts vs SK/Samsung/Hanwha)

Lee has been fortunate to have his first 3 starts against the 8th, 9th, and 10th worst-hitting teams in the KBO, but not only has he still been far below average, it’s time for his wake-up call today against an NC team that has feasted against these kinds of pitchers. Lee is not bad enough that oddsmakers are making NC an absurd favorite, but I think that’s due to his stats not being horrendous from this year, which is extremely fortunate for us bettors, since I think Lee is way, way worse than he has appeared (which already isn’t very good). The one thing Lee does have going for him is that he’s left-handed, which will give him a platoon advantage against a few of NC’s better hitters, but I honestly just don’t think it’s going to matter here. I still want to hit the under in this game, purely because I think Kiwoom will hardly get on the board, but I’m going to hammer NC ML, NC -1.5, and NC 1H -1 with a vengeance.

HITTING: 7th in average, 6th in runs

Game Plays:

1: NC ML (-205) 3U

2: NC -1.5 (+100) 3U

3: NC 1H -0.5 (-130) 3U

4: Kiwoom TT UN 3.5 (-105) 2U

5: UN 9.5 (-110) 1U

 

 

G2: Doosan Bears (10-7, -250) VS SK Wyverns (3-14, +180) O/U 9.5

Bears:

SP: Chris Flexen (9/10)

            2019 ERA: 6.59 (in MLB)

            2020 Stats: 2.70 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 20 IP, 22 K, 4 BB (starts vs LG/Lotte/NC)

An outstanding start last week vs NC – 8 IP/10 K/ 1 ER – demonstrated in full that Flexen is going to be a legitimate force on the mound in this league. Doosan has demonstrated a full commitment to allowing him to work long into games, as he has topped 100 pitches in each of his last two starts, which works very well in our favor here, as Flexen is a great bet to give us 7+ innings of really good work, and turn it over to the best pitcher or two in the bullpen to finish the job. He’s had to face three of the better-hitting teams in the league so far, and now gets a great opportunity to pad his stats even more against an SK team that can only be described as lifeless, ranking dead last in practically every hitting category. With this in mind, it’s no surprise that Doosan is a light -250 favorite, but that doesn’t mean we still can’t find good angles to hit in this game. For example, I love Flexen to lock down the Wyverns and limit them to a run or two, putting SK TT UN 3.5 in a great position to succeed. This isn’t juiced at all, and we have a great idea of what we’re getting from Flexen, so I like it a lot. Let’s look at the SK side of the matchup to see what they’re working with.

HITTING: 1st in average, 2nd in runs

Wyverns:

SP: Jong-hoon Park (3/10)

            2019 ERA: 3.88

            2020 Stats: 4.20 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 15 IP, 20 H, 17 K, 6 BB (Starts vs Hanwha/LG/Kiwoom)

Park isn’t necessarily a terrible pitcher, and the 20 hits he has given up is a little misleading, as only 3 of them have been XBH, which suggests an absurdly high BABIP. That being said, Park is by no means that good of a pitcher, which places him squarely in a bulls-eye as he faces off against the best-hitting team in the KBO, fresh off a surprising shut-out and blowout loss at the hands of David Buchannan and the Samsung Lions. However, looking closer at this loss, Doosan still had 11 hits, which typically translates to at least 4+ runs for them. I’m not worried about their hitting somehow going ice cold, and they have not made a habit of losing many games in a row, so against an average right-handed arm the Bears should be in a really good position to regain that scoring edge and come back with a vengeance tonight. Park has also had the advantage of pitching against teams that are middle of the pack on the hitting side, so the sudden rise he has seen in strikeouts won’t be as much of a factor tonight against a team that hardly ever strikes out. Likewise, his last start against Kiwoom was concerning in that he walked 3 and gave up 6 hits over just 5 innings, meaning that the Heroes averaged nearly 2 baserunners/inning. This story is as old as time vs the Bears, in that it doesn’t really ever work.

HITTING: 10th in average and runs. Yuck

Game Plays:

1: Doosan -1.5 (-135) 3U

2: SK TT UN 3.5 (-115) 1U

3: Doosan TT OV 5.5 (-120) 1U

 

 

G3: KT Wiz (7-10, -135) VS Kia Tigers (10-8, +110) O/U 10

Wiz:

SP: Je-seong Bae (8/10)

            2019 ERA: 3.76

            2020 Stats: 0.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 20.1 IP, 21 H, 4 BB, 11 K (starts vs Lotte/NC/Hanwha)

Bae has been nothing short of outstanding this season, posting 3 straight terrific starts, including 7 shutout innings vs the hard-hitting Dinos. I think he’s extremely underrated in the league – perhaps a factor of his miniscule strike-out rate – but that doesn’t concern me at all since he hardly ever walks anyone. Bae was great last year too and is still 23, so it is very possible that this is a true breakout season for the young RHP. He’s in a solid spot for success tonight against a Kia team that really hasn’t been much more than average, and profiles in the middle of the league in practically every hitting category. They aren’t slouches at the plate, but not necessarily threats to the light up the scoreboard either, which puts Bae in a very feasible position to succeed, especially being backed up with KT’s dynamic offense. The total seems aggressive to me at 10, but with KT’s bullpen it’s hard to ever really know what you’re going to get. Let’s look at the Kia side before we make any plays.

HITTING: 2nd in average, 1st in runs

Tigers:

SP: Drew Gagnon

            2019 ERA: 8.37 (in MLB)

            2020 Stats: 3.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 16.1 IP, 14 H, 23 K, 5 BB (starts vs            Samsung/Hanwha/Lotte)

Gagnon has a few pros and cons here – on one hand, he has shown flashes of brilliance this season, evident in his 9-strikeout, 6-inning shutout start against Lotte, and overall 23:5 K/BB ratio, which is nothing short of spectacular. On the other hand, he really hasn’t been all that convincing in his other two appearances – against Hanwha and Samsung – where he gave up a combined 12 hits and 7 ER over 10.1 IP. Now, he moves out of the bottom tier of the league and has to face a Wiz team that hits the ball consistently hard, giving them a noticeable advantage over every team Gagnon has pitched against this season. The real question is this – is Gagnon for real as a legit KBO arm, or has he made a killing off taking advantage of bad hitters? I think it’s probably a combination of the two – he might not be the best arm in the league, but he’s not terrible, either. Even so, I still like KT in this spot tonight, though I’ll stay away from them over the full game because their bullpen is so prone to meltdown. Two small plays for this game: Wiz 1H ML and 1H UN 5.

HITTING: 5th in average, 7th in runs

Game Plays:

1: Wiz 1H ML (-145) 1U

2: 1H UN 5 (-125) 1U

  

NOTE: G4 and G5 are decent, but I wasn’t able to find any significant advantages there as compared to the first three games on the slate. It doesn’t make sense to force anything in a spot where these first games really jump out, so I’m going to leave everything there alone.