Samsung Lions (55-69, +130) @ LG Twins (69-56, -160) O/U 9 (-115)

My Pick: First 5 Inning Under 5 (-105) 4U MAX

It&rsquo;s been a while since I&rsquo;ve done a major writeup for MLB or KBO (been pretty busy with work), but I figured I&rsquo;d do one for this max tonight to give an insight into the process I took to not only this pick, but others like it. Quickly, here are my YTD unit counts including both the free plays I gave from April to July as well as the Premium plays I&rsquo;ve done over the last two months.

MLB: +28.1U (strong rebound after a tough stretch to open one of the strangest seasons in recent memory)

<div>
KBO: +185U (stayed consistently strong since full free plays ended; +45U via Premium plays)
</div>

Moving into the pick (stated above), there are a few key things that I want to cover, so I&rsquo;ll probably just lay it out in that format to make it easily readable. Some items are applicable to both teams, others just to one, or even one particular player. I&rsquo;ll start with one of the big ones for me that I tend to focus heavily on in KBO, given that I don&rsquo;t really think Vegas does.

<ol>
	<li>Chae-heung Choi (Samsung&rsquo;s starter) is elite vs lefty-heavy teams</li>
</ol>

One of the better left-handed pitchers in the KBO, Choi enjoys his favorite matchup of the season tonight vs an LG team that typically starts 4 lefties, though they will likely only be starting three tonight due to an injury to MVP candidate Roberto Ramos (more on that later). Importantly, those three lefties aren&rsquo;t just anyone in the lineup &ndash; they&rsquo;re currently three of the four best hitters on the team, and practically the only source of any power, especially with the crucial bat of Ramos missing. LG ranks second in the KBO with 135 HRs, but nearly 70 of those should be strongly negated tonight (38 in the form of Ramos, 32 among the other three). The bat of Ramos is already irreplaceable and picking up the slack will be far more difficult against a pitcher of Choi&rsquo;s pedigree. Examining his work this season, we&rsquo;re clearly seeing a guy who excels vs teams such as LG, Doosan, and Kia, who all feature lefties as their best hitters. Choi had one absolutely abysmal start vs Doosan at home where he got annihilated to the tune of 17 hits, but that likely has to do with a combination of him seeing the Bears five days prior to that and just not having his best stuff on the next given day. Supporting that, Choi stifled Doosan in his most recent outing, where he gave up 3 runs in the first inning before practically being untouchable over the next 6, striking out 5 as no more hitters crossed the plate. I&rsquo;m really excited about Choi carrying that momentum into this start today, particularly against an LG team that he has simply dominated. Here are his three starts this season vs the Twins:

5/20/20 (at Samsung): 6 IP / 4 H / 1 ER / 2 K

7/5/20 (at Samsung): 5 IP / 2 H / 0 ER / 4 K

9/13/20 (at LG): 9 IP / 4 H / 0 ER / 10 K [best outing of the season]

Choi has a track record of excellence vs this team and should only be in a better spot with Ramos. LG was mystified last night by another Samsung lefty who is several tiers below Choi, and I&rsquo;m excited to see what Choi can do over the first five tonight. For the record, here are the game logs of Chan-heon Jung (LG&rsquo;s starter) vs Samsung:

6/4/20 (at LG): 7 IP / 3 H / 0 ER / 11 K [best outing of the season]

7/5/20 (at Samsung): 6 IP / 7 H / 2 ER / 7 K [both runs coming on a 2-out, 2-run HR in the second]

<ol start="2">
	<li>Analytical support for both pitchers</li>
</ol>

As much or more so than MLB, a crucial component of examining KBO arms is looking beyond the base stats like ERA and WHIP. Because the KBO is such a contact and small-ball oriented league, pitchers can often escape from innings that include a walk and multiple hits simply because the majority of hitters don&rsquo;t have the power to put a ball over the fence and punish a lack of command. However, most good luck comes to an end quickly for these guys, so three critical things I look at to make sure I&rsquo;m not betting on one of them are the following stats: FIP, BB/9, K/9, and hard-hit ball rate (when available). Going through the list, the first obvious thing that stands out to me positively is that both pitchers have (relatively) strong FIPs, especially as compared with other arms in the KBO. Due to an injury earlier this season, Jung falls just short of the innings qualification for a leaderboard position, but if we were to include him, he would rank 9th in the league with a 4.02 FIP, just ahead of Choi (10th) with a 4.10 FIP. As far as K&rsquo;s go, Choi and Jung both average a touch more than 7.5, putting them 11th and 12th in the league. Finally, perhaps my most valued stat is walk rate, as the true disaster of unders in the KBO is when a pitcher just can&rsquo;t find the zone. Fortunately, that shouldn&rsquo;t be a serious problem if our starters pitch to their season averages. Jung ranks within the top-15, and Choi sits at 22nd, but has improved significantly over his last 7 outings. While these aren&rsquo;t necessarily eye-popping stats compared to Major League Baseball, the fact that they are all consensus top-15 reflects the fact that pitching can be hard to come by in the KBO. Additionally, we have to understand that this is a league severely top-heavy in terms of hitting quality, so matchups and situations dictate whether that level of arm is an appealing option or one to stay away from. As mentioned previously, LG is clearly a positive matchup for Choi, and Samsung has scored a combined 7 runs in their last 4 games &ndash; including 3.3/game over their last 10 &ndash; shaping up to be an equally solid option for Jung.

<ol start="3">
	<li>Location of the game</li>
</ol>

The fact that this game is being played at LG&rsquo;s stadium (Jamsil) cannot be undervalued. Jamsil, shared between LG and Doosan, is far and away the most pitcher-friendly park in the league. With dimensions at 330 to the corners and 415 to dead center, Jamsil is a cavernous field and plays extremely deep, and it&rsquo;s extremely clear that that trend has manifested itself with the Twins. They average 6.48 R/G on the road, compared to 4.78 R/G at home. In games LG plays at home, an average of 1.37 HR/G are hit, which is astonishingly low considering LG has the 3rd-most HRs in the KBO. This speaks to the difficult of putting a ball out here. Furthermore, Samsung has had serious problems scoring runs on the road, with an average of 4.47 away compared to 5.20 at home. This power dampening could be even bigger tonight, as LG will have to contend with the loss of Ramos and the left-on-left problems at the top, and Samsung ranks 9th in the KBO with HR/G on the road at 0.65. Furthermore, Samsung&rsquo;s pitching has excelled on the road, as they boast the 2nd-best ERA among starting pitchers (3.96) of teams playing away from home. Choi in particular has cruised lately, putting together an extremely impressive 1.86 ERA on the road in his last 5 starts. Stringing hits or walks together is typically a hard task against these two pitchers, so avoiding a setback HR is a key component of the play and huge for our guys.

Other Notes

If you&rsquo;re looking for any other angles to this game, here are a few I&rsquo;d suggest:

<ul>
	<li>LG TT UN 4.5 (+100)</li>
	<li>Full Game UN 9 (-105)</li>
	<li>Live Second Inning UN 0.5 (odds TBD, if you&rsquo;re awake for this one)</li>
</ul>

GOOD LUCK!!!!

 Samsung Lions (55-69, +130) @ LG Twins (69-56, -160) O/U 9 (-115)My Pick: First 5 Inning Under 5 (-105) 4U MAXIt&rsquo;s been a while since I&rsquo;ve done a major writeup for MLB or KBO (been pretty busy with work), but I figured I&rsquo;d do one f

JP's Samsung LG Writeup

Game of the Day: Boston Red Sox (+160) @ New York Yankees (-180) O/U 10.5

Red Sox:

SP: Ryan Weber (RHP)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 Quick Look: 5.09 ERA / 4.56 xFIP / 6.42 K/9

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 14.73 ERA / 9.48 xFIP / 3.2 IP / 0 K

Well, let&rsquo;s begin by saying this not the classic Red Sox &ndash; Yankees matchup we are used to. With legends on both sides either retired or moved on to other teams, we&rsquo;re looking at a completely different lineup than we would have seen a few years ago. For New York, this is a great thing. They boast arguably one of the most terrifying lineups in Major League history, with DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, and Giancarlo Stanton making up the core of a downright scary top four. Each of these perennial All Stars &ndash; and really perennial MVP candidates, when healthy &ndash; can change the game on their own at any moment, as we saw twice last night with a 5-run Yanks first inning and 3-run 9th inning, anchored by an absolute nuke from Aaron Judge. There was some concern that Torres would miss today&rsquo;s game after Orioles SP John Means drilled him in the elbow, but all X-Rays came back negative and he&rsquo;s right back in the 3-hole. Gary Sanchez is getting the night off, but the way he&rsquo;s been hitting, it may not be the worst thing in the world to have an unfamiliar face in the order. As far as Weber goes, this isn&rsquo;t someone I&rsquo;m afraid of in the least. He&rsquo;s a low-strikeout, bottom-tier right-handed starter, AKA the kind of guy who typically doesn&rsquo;t last for long stints in the Major League or deep into games, particularly against the Yankees. He got torn apart by the Orioles last week (statline read: 3.2 IP / 6 H / 3 BB / 6 ER / 0 K&hellip; sheesh), and now will go from facing a bottom-three lineup to the best lineup in baseball. This is not a spot where I&rsquo;m super encouraged with his prospects, to say the least. Weber split time between AAA and MLB last year, throwing just 40.2 innings in the big league to the tune of a 5.09 ERA / 4.56 xFIP. He almost certainly wouldn&rsquo;t have a Major League job right now if the Red Sox hadn&rsquo;t lost David Price, Eduardo Rodriguez, Chris Sale, and other key arms to injury/trade. The Sox threw almost every one of their regular relievers for 30+ pitches in a near collapse against the Mets last night, and I expect them to be turning to their lower-end bullpen arms in a game that could get ugly in a hurry.

Yankees:

SP: Jordan Montgomery

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 Quick Look: 6.75 ERA / 3.20 xFIP / 4.0 IP (coming off injury)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Steamer Projection: 4.71 ERA / 4.85 FIP / 45 IP

Montgomery is certainly a bit of an unknown, but where Weber is a known (bad) commodity, Montgomery provides some intriguing upside. He was actually borderline outstanding as a rookie, posting a 3.88 ERA / 4.07 FIP in 29 starts for the Yankees, but injuries limited his subsequent two seasons and he&rsquo;s finally making his way back to the bigs. He looked healthy and extremely effective in both Spring Training and Summer Camp, suggesting that he&rsquo;s not only moved past the injury woes, but is regaining the form that carried him to a spot in the Yankees rotation as a rookie. Boston is known for hitting lefties well &ndash; especially Bogaerts and Martinez &ndash; but the rest of their lineup looks so awful right now that it&rsquo;s difficult to place any trust in them at all. They looked pretty timid vs Steven Matz last night, with the only damage coming off the bat of Christian Vazquez and very little other than that. Rafael Devers looks lost at the plate, and a bottom of the order with Verdugo and Bradley Jr. left-on-left isn&rsquo;t particularly scary, especially when coupled with Jose Peraza. These Red Sox just aren&rsquo;t the same as the group we have a mental image of, and they&rsquo;re honestly lucky to be sitting at 3-4 after the Mets failed to capitalize on about 25 combined baserunners over two games. Furthermore, the Yanks should have top-tier relievers Adam Ottavino and Zach Britton available again tonight, as both have only thrown twice this season and threw just 12 pitches in the game against the Orioles last night. This season is too short to be wasting games, so if it&rsquo;s close going down the stretch, you can expect to see Aaron Boone bring in the big guns to finish the game off. Montgomery has been throwing extended outings in scrimmages and exhibition games, and it wouldn&rsquo;t shock me to see him go 6 in this one before turning it over to the pen. If he is that effective, this game won&rsquo;t even be close. New York will provide ample cushion to give Montgomery some margin for error, so a gem from him is just icing on the cake.

Game Plays:

1: Yankees -1.5 (-105) 3U

2: Yankees TT OV 5.5 (-130) 2U

3: F5 OV 6 (-120) 2U

 Game of the Day: Boston Red Sox (+160) @ New York Yankees (-180) O/U 10.5Red Sox:SP: Ryan Weber (RHP)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 Quick Look: 5.09 ERA / 4.56 xFIP / 6.42 K/9&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nb

JP's Game of the Day 7/31

5U KBO PLAY OF THE YEAR #3 

Kiwoom Heroes (+110) @ Doosan Bears (-145) O/U 10.5 (-115)

Doosan Bears Starting Pitcher: Hui-kwan Yu

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.25

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 5.21 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 74.1 IP, 99 H, 31 K, 24 BB

Anyone who has tailed my KBO plays over the last few months knows my attitude towards Hui-kwan Yu: Auto Fade. Throughout his career, Yu has undergone stretches of fairly decent effectiveness, even bordering on upper-tier pitching. However, as he stretches into his mid-30s, any shred of productivity has been replaced by a proclivity to be shelled.

Here&rsquo;s a game-by-game log of the opposing teams runs/game in contests where Yu is the starter:

&nbsp;<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/07/30/big-chart.png" style="height:578px; width:584px" />

This chart tells me two &ndash; first, that teams facing Yu are averaging nearly 7 runs per game. Second, Yu has faced on average teams well outside the top five in OPS.

Here&rsquo;s Yu&rsquo;s game log vs top-five OPS teams (one of which is Kiwoom).

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/07/30/table-for-poy.png" style="height:226px; width:262px" />

In short: Yu is getting absolutely torched by the better KBO offenses. Kiwoom, while ranking fifth in OPS, has surged offensively and is only getting scarier with the acquisition of former Cubs SS Addison Russell, who was activated a few days ago and went 2/4 with 2 RBI and 1 R in his debut. Russell, who fell out of grace in the United States after a case regarding domestic abuse, still arguably has the talent to compete on a Major League roster, which suggests his skillset will absolutely dominate the KBO. Over a full season, I very realistically could see Russell running away with the MVP Award in the league. He&rsquo;ll be an anchor in the Kiwoom offense for as long as he stays in the league, and I honestly think his spot on the roster makes the offense the best in the KBO. Over the course of his Major League career, Russell was better against left-handed pitching than right-handed, posting a .717 OPS against lefties. This makes him a perfect addition to the Kiwoom offense, which is significantly better against lefties than righties, with their regular players posting a .275 AVG / .445 SLG / .174 ISO against lefties vs a .274 AVG / .412 SLG / .148 ISO vs righties. Add a strong righty like Russell to the equation and you&rsquo;re looking at an order of mashers. Furthermore, Yu has gotten absolutely thrashed by righties, with RHH posting a ridiculous .298 AVG / .500 SLG / .202 ISO line against him. To add to all of this, Doosan has a 5.42 bullpen ERA, which isn&rsquo;t exactly inspiring confidence in the latter innings of the game. As the away team, Kiwoom will have nine full innings to hit, and my guess is they need around four to break their team total. 4.5 is a ridiculous line, and they&rsquo;ll get there with ease.

&nbsp;

5U MAX: HEROES TEAM TOTAL OVER 4.5 (-120)

 5U KBO PLAY OF THE YEAR #3 Kiwoom Heroes (+110) @ Doosan Bears (-145) O/U 10.5 (-115)Doosan Bears Starting Pitcher: Hui-kwan Yu&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.25&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp

JP's KBO 5U PLAY OF THE YEAR

Welcome to the fourth edition of JP&rsquo;s MLB/KBO Picks! In this article, I will be writing up my favorite MLB Bet of the day. You can find all my plays &ndash; including both the United States and South Korea &ndash; through Bet Karma&rsquo;s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium">MLB Premium Package</a>. Let&rsquo;s get it going!

&nbsp;

Game of the Day: Arizona Diamondbacks (+105) @ San Diego Padres (-125) O/U 8.5

DBacks:

SP: Luke Weaver

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 Stats: 2.94 ERA / 1.073 WHIP / 3.87 xFIP / 64.1 IP

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Steamer Projections: 4.26 ERA / 4.25 FIP / 62 IP

The 2018 and 2019 versions of Luke Weaver look completely different on practically every statistical level. We&rsquo;ll start with a small table to compare the two:

<table cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse:collapse; border:none">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; border-left:1px solid black; border-right:1px solid black; border-top:1px solid black; vertical-align:top; width:104px">
			&nbsp;
			</td>
			<td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; border-left:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-top:1px solid black; vertical-align:top; width:104px">
			xFIP
			</td>
			<td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; border-left:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-top:1px solid black; vertical-align:top; width:104px">
			K%
			</td>
			<td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; border-left:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-top:1px solid black; vertical-align:top; width:104px">
			BB/9
			</td>
			<td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; border-left:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-top:1px solid black; vertical-align:top; width:104px">
			wFA
			</td>
			<td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; border-left:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-top:1px solid black; vertical-align:top; width:104px">
			wCH
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; border-left:1px solid black; border-right:1px solid black; border-top:none; vertical-align:top; width:104px">
			2018
			</td>
			<td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; border-left:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-top:none; vertical-align:top; width:104px">
			4.46
			</td>
			<td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; border-left:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-top:none; vertical-align:top; width:104px">
			19.9
			</td>
			<td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; border-left:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-top:none; vertical-align:top; width:104px">
			3.56
			</td>
			<td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; border-left:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-top:none; vertical-align:top; width:104px">
			-1.4
			</td>
			<td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; border-left:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-top:none; vertical-align:top; width:104px">
			-5.8
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; border-left:1px solid black; border-right:1px solid black; border-top:none; vertical-align:top; width:104px">
			2019
			</td>
			<td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; border-left:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-top:none; vertical-align:top; width:104px">
			3.87
			</td>
			<td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; border-left:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-top:none; vertical-align:top; width:104px">
			26.5
			</td>
			<td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; border-left:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-top:none; vertical-align:top; width:104px">
			1.96
			</td>
			<td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; border-left:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-top:none; vertical-align:top; width:104px">
			3.4
			</td>
			<td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; border-left:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-top:none; vertical-align:top; width:104px">
			6.5
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

&nbsp;

It&rsquo;s pretty clear that there&rsquo;s been a holistic improvement in Weaver&rsquo;s performance over the last two seasons, and all of these stats tie together in terms of explaining at least part of that improvement. Perhaps it all boils down to the fact that he&rsquo;s inducing far more swings and misses, getting chases outside the zone, and overall striking out more batters and walking fewer, in addition to slicing his HR/9 nearly in half. The two columns on the right reflect roughly how many runs above average a pitch is (higher number = better for the pitcher), and within a season Weaver has seen massive improvement in the two pitches he throws around 76% of the time combined. The difference in the changeup performance be understated, as that&rsquo;s clearly his number two option and gives him an impressive change of pace in situations necessitating an off-speed pitch. His matchup vs the Padres isn&rsquo;t necessarily the greatest of all time, but while San Diego has flashed some improved numbers so far (and I think will be better overall), most of their damage has come at the back end of DBacks starters appearances or against the so-so pen, with just 4 of the Padres&rsquo;s 15 runs so far coming before the fifth inning, and not a single one before the third. Weaver looked really solid in all three appearances vs the Padres last year, posting two lengthy starts for a combined line of 12.1 IP / 4 ER / 15 K, as well as a short appearance consisting of 2 IP / 0 ER / 1 K. Both bullpens are pretty shot, so we&rsquo;ll be rolling with a first half line, but more on San Diego&rsquo;s pen later. &nbsp;

Padres:

SP: Joey Lucchesi

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 Stats: 4.18 ERA / 1.222 WHIP / 4.36 xFIP / 163.2 IP

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Steamer Projections: 4.33 ERA / 4.40 FIP / 54 IP

Lucchesi, a big lefty relying mostly on a low-90s sinker, is a pitcher with the potential and projectability to be a high-end starter, but he&rsquo;s just not there yet at this point and his career. Lucchesi nearly lost his spot in the rotation with a horrendous Spring Training 1.0 followed by a bad ST 2.0 (concluding on July 23rd with a 4-inning, 3-run exhibition start against the Angels), he hasn&rsquo;t shown any indication of a breakout on the horizon in 2020, and arguably has taken a step backwards since his rookie year. While his ERA remained relatively consistent (4.08 to 4.18), his xFIP tumbled from 3.45 to 4.36, a move that likely corresponded with a decreased strikeout rate plus increased walk rate. While he&rsquo;s by no means a gas can, he fits the profile of around a number five pitcher in a rotation with a medium ceiling and low floor. He doesn&rsquo;t strike out enough hitters to ever be overwhelming, so his success will be entirely dependent on inducing soft contact and limiting free passes. Unsurprisingly for a guy with his build and profile, he&rsquo;s way more affective against lefties than righties, posting a .245/.304/.451 line vs righties and a .231/.311/.332 line vs lefties (clearly he&rsquo;s limiting left-handed power). The DBacks are extremely well positioned for this kind of matchup &ndash; they absolutely mashed left-handed pitching last year, ranking fifth in the Major Leagues in both wRC+ and wOBA, posting lines of 119 and .356 respectively. They have seven projected RHB in the lineup today, including budding superstar Ketel Marte, who is 6/14 career against Lucchesi. Additionally, the Padres bullpen will likely be a patchwork of lower-end arms for today&rsquo;s game, as San Diego was forced to use six relievers last night, including burning closer Kirby Yates and setup Emilio Pagan, and possibly late-inning arm Drew Pomeranz as well. This will leave them staring deep down the depth chart, and as the away team, Arizona will have nine full innings to capitalize.

Game Plays:

1: DBacks Team Total OV 3.5 (-130) 3U

2: DBacks 1st Five Pickem (-115) 1U &nbsp;

LEAN (NOT OFFICIAL)

First Five UN 5.0 (-140)

 Welcome to the fourth edition of JP&rsquo;s MLB/KBO Picks! In this article, I will be writing up my favorite MLB Bet of the day. You can find all my plays &ndash; including both the United States and South Korea &ndash; through Bet Karma&rsquo;s&nbs

JP's Baseball Bets 7/27

G1: Colorado Rockies (+125) @ Texas Rangers (-145) O/U 8.5

Rockies:

SP: Kyle Freeland

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 Stats: 6.73 ERA / 1.58 WHIP / 5.07 xFIP / 104.1 IP

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Steamer Projections: 5.17 ERA / 4.95 xFIP / 57 IP

Looking at Freeland&rsquo;s body of work in 2019 and his projections for 2020, it&rsquo;s easy to assume that this is an auto-fade pitcher, or at least one entirely worth staying away from. But there&rsquo;s much more to Freeland than his base stats might suggest, beginning with the fact that so much of his damage came at home in the Colorado elevation, a stark contrast to the environment he&rsquo;ll be pitched in today. For starters, we can compare a few relevant stats from his 2019 home and away splits.

Home: 47.2 IP / 9.25 ERA / 5.32 xFIP / .678 SLG / .428 wOBA

Away: 56.2 IP / 4.61 ERA / 4.86 xFIP / .442 SLG / .324 wOBA

Now, to further break it down, let&rsquo;s take a peek at his platoon splits, as lefties compose 33% of the Rangers lineup and arguably three of their four best hitters (one of whom, typical leadoff Shin-soo Choo, is forced to sit today to avoid the platoon disadvantage)

Vs LHH: &nbsp;20.1 IP / 3.79 xFIP / .452 SLG / .331 wOBA

Vs RHH: 84.0 IP / 5.38 xFIP / .579 SLG / .383 wOBA

It&rsquo;s pretty clear that all of this points to Freeland having an advantage both on the road and against left-handed hitters, and he&rsquo;s firmly in position to have both of those today. After that disastrous 2019, Freeland re-worked his delivery and looked good in Spring Training, and although we all know that Spring Training is not the greatest indicator of future success, it&rsquo;s at the very least a good start. Combine Freeland&rsquo;s progress on the mound with the Rangers struggles against lefties, and you&rsquo;ve got an opportunity for the Rockies LHP to start the 2020 season in a far more positive manner than he ended 2019.

Rangers:

SP: Corey Kluber

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 Stats: 5.80 ERA / 4.06 WHIP / 4.88 xFIP / 35.2 IP

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Steamer Projection: 4.01 ERA / 4.08 xFIP / 68 IP

By all accounts, an injury-shortened 2019 season was a letdown for Kluber, who has been one of the premier aces in the Major Leagues for years. But after an offseason trade to Texas and a successful rehab, it appears Kluber is back to nearly full strength and primed for a return to action. He grabs a favorable matchup in his first start back, taking on a Colorado Rockies team with significant historical struggles both on the road and against righties, as they procured a wRC+ of just 83 against righties last year, and looked tepid on the road. Colorado starts 7 lefties, but the reality is that with the exception of Charlie Blackmon, none of them are really all that threatening, as seen in Lance Lynn&rsquo;s blanking of the Rockies on Opening Day. Their best two hitters are Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story &ndash; both righties &ndash; and they really don&rsquo;t have much in the lineup other than that. Kluber certainly shouldn&rsquo;t have a problem stifling the lower end of the lineup &ndash; consisting of Raimel Tapia, Sam Hilliard, and Tony Wolters &ndash; and the Rangers bottom three are perhaps even less threatening, with Robinson Chirinos, Willie Calhoun, and Rob Refsnyder. Two low-scoring games have resulted in some bullpen usage, so it may be wise to look more towards the first five under than the game under, but neither team has shown any potency against practically any arm throughout this series. I don&rsquo;t see there being a whole lot of fireworks early in this one, particularly on the Rockies side as we see a combination of Kluber making a strong return from the IL and the Rockies continued struggles on the road, as the former Cy Young contender should return more closely to the form he was pre-2019 than last season.

Game Plays: 

1: 1H UN 5 (-145, bought up from 4.5) 2U

2: Rangers 1H ML (-115) 1U

PARLAY:

Rangers/Rockies UN 10.5 + Astros ML (-113) 1U 

&nbsp;

GAME 2 TO COME LATER ON

 G1: Colorado Rockies (+125) @ Texas Rangers (-145) O/U 8.5Rockies:SP: Kyle Freeland&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 Stats: 6.73 ERA / 1.58 WHIP / 5.07 xFIP / 104.1 IP&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Steamer 

JP's Baseball Bets 7/26

Welcome to the second edition of JP&rsquo;s MLB/KBO Picks! In this article, I will be writing up my favorite MLB Bet of the day. You can find all my plays &ndash; including both the United States and South Korea &ndash; through Bet Karma&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">MLB Premium Package</a>. Let&rsquo;s keep it going! 

KBO Season Record: 266-197-17, +140U

MLB Season Record: 3-1, +4U

<hr />
Game of the Day: Detroit Tigers (+150) @ Cincinnati Reds (-170) O/U 9.0

Tigers:

SP: Matt Boyd

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 Stats: 4.56 ERA / 1.230 WHIP / 3.88 xFIP / 185.1 IP

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Steamer Projection: 4.36 ERA / 4.47 xFIP / 68 IP

Boyd, who was by most accounts a thoroughly average pitcher last year, is likely lined up for another campaign in that realm. He&rsquo;s neither an ace nor a blowup waiting to happen, and an Opening Day start is far more reflective of the calamity ongoing in Detroit rather than Boyd&rsquo;s skillset. Practically all projection systems line him up in the same place, and I believe that consensus will be true. Boyd is a very situational pitcher, and this is just not a great situation for him or his team. The Reds have completely revamped their roster, going all-in on talent with the acquisitions of Japanese superstar Shogo Ikayama, righty slugger Nick Castellanos (Detroit), and three-time All Star Mike Moustakas (Milwaukee), who mashed 35 home runs for the Brewers last season. These bats will compliment high-end prospect Nick Senzel, who smashed minor league pitching and assumed a starting big-league role last year, and is a candidate for continued improvement this season. I would expect to see Philip Ervin in the starting lineup today as well. Though Ervin may not end up being an everyday player, he absolutely torched left-handed pitching, putting up a .349/.411/.628 statline against lefty hurlers. While the Reds will likely end up being stronger against right-handed pitching, Moustakas is highly capable of hitting left-on-left, and Suarez, Senzel, and Castellanos are all absolute machines vs lefties, so the split shouldn&rsquo;t be drastic. The middle of the Reds order has the potential to be sneakily terrifying &ndash; Moustakas, Suarez, and Castellanos should provide consistent heavy power, and if Akiyama adjusts positively to the United States, Votto bounces back a touch, and Senzel lives up to expectations, we could be looking at a very threatening lineup. Boyd is overweight on a fastball that&rsquo;s not particularly effective, throwing it 49.9% of the time in 2019 and averaging around 92.3 MPH, inducing a far below-average .354 wOBA. A Reds team newly equipped for power should be able to capitalize on plenty of opportunities, particularly since Boyd&rsquo;s command is nothing more than average, and he&rsquo;s expected to regress in terms of strikeouts. Moreover, Detroit&rsquo;s bullpen is an absolute disaster, as closer Joe Jimenez may be the brightest light while still carrying a 4.66 FIP in 2019. Detroit won&rsquo;t run Boyd past 100 pitches, so if Cincinnati creates some early chances, they&rsquo;ll have at least 3 innings to face a bottom-five bullpen in the Major Leagues.

Reds:

SP: Sonny Gray

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 Stats: 2.87 ERA / 1.084 WHIP / 3.65 xFIP / 175.1 IP

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Steamer Projections: 4.16 ERA / 4.06 xFIP / 65 IP

After a down year with the Yankees in a situation that clearly was uncomfortable for both Gray and the New York organization, Gray returned to dominance with a terrific 2019 campaign for the Reds, securing his spot as the ace of a high-end pitching staff. Grey finished 7th in Cy Young voting and made the All Star team for the second time, enjoying arguably the best season of his career. Now, with a Reds team primed for contention after a busy offseason, Gray will look to start the season strong against a Detroit Tigers team that, to put it simply, just can&rsquo;t hit. The core of Detroit&rsquo;s order will likely consist of Niko Goodrum, Jonathan Schoop (offseason addition from the Twins), Miguel Cabrera, and CJ Cron. This is&hellip; um&hellip; not ideal. Using 2019 numbers, this core four would COMBINE for an offensive WAR of 3.5, which, for reference, is less than Eugenio Suarez&rsquo;s alone (4.5). Detroit&rsquo;s offense just carries absolutely no promise, and to make matters worse for tonight&rsquo;s matchup, four of their projected top six hitters are right-handed. Right-on-right has proven to be Gray&rsquo;s specialty, as he enjoyed a 3.28 FIP against righties vs a 3.59 FIP against lefties (regardless, both are excellent). Having lost Castellanos and Suarez in the last two years, Detroit has perhaps the worst active roster in the Major Leagues, living alongside the likes of the Giants and Orioles as near-locks for bottom feeding. Finally, the Cincinnati bullpen should be very adequate in their relief of Gray, particularly if Raisel Iglesias and Pedro Strop perform up to expectations. Though both had down years ERA-wise in 2019, neither of their xFIP&rsquo;s were dangerously off-pace, and I expect them to positively regress and form a potent late-inning trio alongside the dynamic Michael Lorenzen.

Game Plays: 

1: Reds -1.5 (+110) 3U

2: Tigers TT UN 4 (-135) 2U

PARLAY:

Reds ML + Phillies ML (+138) 1U

&nbsp;

KBO Free Play of the Day:

Hanwha TT UN 3.5 (-120) 3U

 Welcome to the second edition of JP&rsquo;s MLB/KBO Picks! In this article, I will be writing up my favorite MLB Bet of the day. You can find all my plays &ndash; including both the United States and South Korea &ndash; through Bet Karma&rsquo;s MLB

JP's Baseball Bets July 24th

Welcome to the first edition of JP&rsquo;s MLB/KBO Picks! With Opening Day upon us, we&rsquo;ll be getting picks from both South Korea and the United States, a combination that I anticipate being extremely profitable. You can find all of Bet Karma&rsquo;s staff bets through our <a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">MLB Premium Package</a>. Let&rsquo;s get it going! 

&nbsp;

G1: New York Yankees (-135) @ Washington Nationals (+115) O/U 7.5

Bales has written an excellent summary of this game that encompasses most of what I would have to say, and I&rsquo;m on the exact same angles, so I&rsquo;m going to build off what he has to say for the purpose of brevity, and focus the majority of my personal writeup on the Dodgers &ndash; Giants game. I recommend you read his writeup for more information, but I&rsquo;ll quote some personally relevant points here that I would cite as well:

<ul>
	<li>Both teams are significantly worse against right-handed pitching:
	<ul style="list-style-type:circle">
		<li>Nationals vs Righties: &ldquo;In 2019, their batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS all dropped a total of .025, .024, and .043 points against right-handed pitchers as opposed to lefties&rdquo; &ndash; Bales 

		<ul style="list-style-type:square">
			<li>Side note: the losses of Anthony Rendon (free agency) and Ryan Zimmerman (COVID concerns) will significantly hurt their offensive output as well</li>
		</ul>
		</li>
		<li>Yankees vs Righties: Saw decline in batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS against righties (unsurprising, since their projected starting lineup consists of: R R R L R R L R; see a trend?)</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
	<li>Both starters are at or near the top of their class in MLB:
	<ul style="list-style-type:circle">
		<li>Scherzer vs Righties: &ldquo;He was elite against right-handed batters, holding them to a 2.22 xFIP with a 0.65 HR/9, a 38.6% strikeout rate, and a 2.7% walk rate in 2019. For more base-level numbers, he held right-handed batters to a .193 average with a .307 slugging percentage and a .223 wOBA&rdquo; &ndash; Bales </li>
		<li>Cole: otherworldly stats include ranking 1st in xFIP (2.48), FIP (2.64), K/9 (13.8), K% (39.9), and ERA+ (185), among other metrics; Fangraphs ranked his fastball as the most valuable pitch in baseball in terms of run prevention</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
	<li>Both bullpens possess the arms necessary to limit damage late in games:
	<ul style="list-style-type:circle">
		<li>Yankees: arms include Aroldis Chapman (LHP, OUT OPENING DAY), Zack Britton (LHP), Adam Ottovino (RHP), Tommy Kahnle (RHP)
		<ul style="list-style-type:square">
			<li>Even with Chapman inactive due to COVID, this is simply a stacked array of pitching, with a hilariously high average velocity around 95 MPH. Britton, Ottovino, and Kahnle lead the charge, all ranking within the top-8% of MLB in statistics such as xSLG and wOBA in 2019. These arms are built for late-game domination.&nbsp;</li>
		</ul>
		</li>
		<li>Nationals: arms include Sean Doolittle (LHP), Daniel Hudson (RHP), and Will Harris (RHP)
		<ul style="list-style-type:square">
			<li>Though not as deep as the Yankees pen (no one is), there are no obvious holes in this group. Doolittle is a serviceable closer, and if he regains his pre-2019 form, he&rsquo;ll be a force to be reckoned with. The addition of Will Harris from the Astros should prove tremendously helpful, and Daniel Hudson will again serve a late-inning role.</li>
		</ul>
		</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ul>

Even without any of the COVID factors, this game screams under. Now, combine everything cited above with limited real-game exposure for hitters who now have to face two proven Opening Day veterans in the 99th percentile in the league in most stats, and you&rsquo;re looking at a low-scoring game.

Game Plays:

1: UN 8 (-130, bought the half-point from 7.5) 1U

2: Nationals TT UN 3.5 (-135) 1U

3: Yankees -1.5 (+110) 1U

PARLAY:

Nationals/Yankees Alternative Total UN 9.5 + Dodgers ML (-115) 3U 

&nbsp;

G2: San Francisco Giants (+260) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-320) O/U 8

Giants:

SP: Johnny Cueto

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 Stats: 5.06 ERA / 1.250 WHIP / 4.89 xFIP / 16 IP

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Steamer Projections: 4.45 ERA / 4.87 xFIP / 64 IP

Cueto, who was MIA for most of 2019 due to Tommy John Surgery recovery followed by back issues that derailed the tail end of his season, will be making his 2020 debut against the team he ended 2019 against. That start, Cueto was shelled for 5 ER over just 2 IP, being pulled after 47 pitches (over the course of which he allowed 3 HR, a 2B, and a 3B). While this start will likely go better than that, I can&rsquo;t find much room for excitement about Cueto&rsquo;s potential, as he&rsquo;s staring down a Dodgers order that will compete with the Yankees for the spot of top roster in baseball. The acquisition of Mookie Betts from the Red Sox simply solidified an already absurd positional group notably consisting of reigning Cody Bellinger (reigning NL MVP), Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Corey Seager, and Joc Pederson, which will be augmented by a DH (possibly AJ Pollock for Opening Day). One thing you&rsquo;ll quickly notice about the Dodgers is how stacked they are with left-handed hitters, and they were predictably far better against righties than lefties in 2019. The addition of Betts will help balance that in the long run, but for tonight&rsquo;s matchup vs Cueto, I&rsquo;m all-in on the lefties. Here&rsquo;s a quick rundown of their splits (calculated against left-handed and right-handed starters):

<div>
2019 LAD vs left-handed starters: .243 AVG / .319 OBP / .439 SLG

2019 LAD vs right-handed starters: .264 AVG / .346 OBP / .488 SLG
</div>

It&rsquo;s pretty clear where the advantage lies, and equally importantly, the Dodgers will have an opportunity to roll out their A-Team against Cueto, since they typically will sit Pederson rather than have him work left-on-left. It was easy to get excited about this Dodgers lineup before the Betts acquisition, but with the 2018 AL MVP involved, anything short of a World Series Championship may be considered a disappointment. Bringing the attention back to Cueto, we&rsquo;re looking at a guy who hasn&rsquo;t had an xFIP below 4.45 since 2017, and has clearly seen significant regression over the last three seasons, coupled with some injury history. His K% has fallen below 20, he&rsquo;s started to face command issues, and is generally just dealing with the adverse effects of age. Neither ZiPS nor Steamer see much positive regression heading Cueto&rsquo;s way, and the fact that he&rsquo;s San Francisco&rsquo;s Opening Day starter is concerning for the Giants as a whole. Behind Cueto, the Giants have completely flipped the script on their bullpen, losing star closer Will Smith to free agency and setup man Mark Melancon to the Braves, setting them up for complete uncertainty in the late innings. Not ideal.

Dodgers:

SP: Clayton Kershaw

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 Stats: 3.03 ERA / 1.043 WHIP / 3.50 xFIP / 178.1 IP

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Steamer Projections: 3.69 ERA / 3.94 xFIP / 75 IP

Another season, another strong year for future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. Concerns about his regression are relevant, as his ERA and xFIP slipped to career lows, but when your career low is 3.03 ERA, it&rsquo;s pretty obvious that you&rsquo;re looking at someone who&rsquo;s one of the greatest pitchers of all time. Kershaw looked every bit his vintage ace self down the stretch, as he pitched to a 2.85 ERA over the final three months of the season after posting a 3.23 ERA over the first two months. He&rsquo;ll have as soft a landing spot as you can ask for in his 2020 debut, facing a Giants squad that has arguably the worst starting roster in baseball (a case will be made for the Orioles as well). They were already horrendous before last week, but in the last seven days, they&rsquo;ve now lost Buster Posey (COVID concerns), Evan Longoria, and Brandon Belt (injuries), leaving them with, well, basically nobody. Mike Yastrzemski will lead off the order and hope to channel the magic of his famous bloodline, but he has a nightmarish left-on-left matchup with Kershaw, and I just don&rsquo;t see where the Giants expect to score runs elsewhere. 37 year-old Hunter Pence? Cleanup hitter and career 1.6 WAR outfielder Alex Dickerson, who for added pain is another lefty? I mean, come on. This is a lifeless, anemic team, and with their best three hitters unavailable, their next best two hitters lefty, their sixth-best hitter someone who&rsquo;s probably the worst cleanup hitter in baseball, and one of the worst rotations/bullpen in baseball, you can tell where I&rsquo;m going with this. It&rsquo;s not a team I think does very much in 2020, and certainly not against Clayton Kershaw. Following the lefty out of the pen will be some combination of Kenley Jansen, Pedro Baez, and Blake Treinen. Both Jansen and Treinen were frustratingly inconsistent in 2019, which moves the Dodgers into the outer edge of the top 10, but if they regain even a fraction of their potential, you&rsquo;re looking at perhaps the best bullpen in baseball.

Game Plays:

1: Dodgers -1.5 (-150) 3U

2: Giants TT UN 3 (-140) 2U

3: Dodgers 1st Inning ML (+200) .5U

PARLAY (referenced earlier):

Nationals/Yankees Alternative Total UN 9.5 + Dodgers ML (-115) 3U 

&nbsp;

KBO PLAYS:

1: LG TT OV 4.5 (-125) 3U

2: Kia 1H -0.5 (-130) 1U

3: Samsung TT UN 3.5 (-135) 2U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

 Welcome to the first edition of JP&rsquo;s MLB/KBO Picks! With Opening Day upon us, we&rsquo;ll be getting picks from both South Korea and the United States, a combination that I anticipate being extremely profitable. You can find all of Bet Karma&r

JP's Baseball Bets July 23

Welcome to another slate of KBO!!!! This is a big itinerary, with a perhaps surprising pick to lead us off. Will we really be fading the team that&#39;s made us so much money? You&#39;ll see...&nbsp;Enjoy!!!

&nbsp;

G1: Kiwoom Heroes (-205) VS NC Dinos (+140) O/U 9.5

Heroes:

SP: Eric Jokisch

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.13

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 1.41 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 76.1 IP, 58 H, 54 K, 10 BB

Jokisch has been nothing short of incredible this season, and the stats reflect the degree of dominance he&rsquo;s exuded practically every time he&rsquo;s stepped on the mound. Only once this entire season did Jokisch allow more than 3 runs in a start, which ironically came against the worst team he faced, Hanwha (back on June 4th). Since then, he&rsquo;s averaged exactly 1 run/start, pitching against Samsung twice, SK, Kia, and KT, not the highest end of teams, but not the worst. That is one criticism of Jokisch &ndash; is a light schedule cause for concern against a team like the Dinos? Maybe in a world where the Dinos are rolling and have a fully healthy lineup, but with their best hitter and potential Major Leaguer Na-sung Bum on the IL due to a wrist injury, the lineup has been forced to undergo a major reshuffle. The results so far have been scores of 6 and 1, and I would urge caution on the game with 6, where NC scored half their runs on an 8th-inning bomb off one of LG&rsquo;s worst relievers, looking relatively punchless the other 11 out of 12 innings against some subpar pitching. Last night, they looked downright lost against Jake Brigham, who was making his first KBO start in two months, as well as the rest of the Kiwoom pen, which no-hit the Dinos over the last four innings of the game. Each of these relievers will be available in full again today, as none of them topped 16 pitches, including Kiwoom&rsquo;s dynamic setup man/closer duo throwing 11 each (and striking out four Dinos). All this being said, Jokisch may be catching NC at just the right time, and his 13 shutout innings against KT (including 13 K&rsquo;s) demonstrate that he can not only pitch, but dominate, the top bats in the league. Without having to worry about the anchor Bum in the 3-hole, Jokisch should be able to find success against an NC lineup where only one hitter has had more than 40 at-bats against left-handed pitching. This is a big test not only for Jokisch, but for Kiwoom as a whole, as this series carries crucial repercussions in the hunt for the KBO regular season title.

Dinos:

SP: Sung-young Choi

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.94

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 5.16 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 29.2 IP, 30 H, 13 K, 12 BB

To put it simply, Choi&rsquo;s 2020 season has been an analytical disaster. The counting stats are bad right off the bat (a 5.16 ERA never won anyone over), but the peripherals for the lefty are even worse. He&rsquo;s currently sitting at a 7.18 FIP, which is ridiculously bad for someone with that many innings. Honestly, it really doesn&rsquo;t surprise me &ndash; his K% is an anemic 10.2%, BB/9 is a significantly subpar 3.64, and he has given up an XBH in nearly half his innings (13 over 29 IP), meaning he&rsquo;s seeing a ton of hard contact. You may look at his schedule and see Doosan twice, and think that he&rsquo;s just had a hard run of things and is due for some positive regression. I would say the exact opposite, and purport that his schedule has actually been relatively easy. Doosan against lefties is nothing more than a slightly above-average squad, Kia is far below-average against lefties, and SK is one of the worst offensive teams in the league against anyone. Those are his five starts, and the fact that he has both allowed 3 or more ER in all but one start and failed to impress any other analytics suggests to me that Choi is likely not a long-term fit in the Dinos rotation. Predictably, the combination of a high walk-rate and high hard-contact rate has the potential to become disastrous, and against a Kiwoom team that excels against left-handed pitching (.445 SLG/.176 ISO both rank well above average in the KBO), enough traffic on the basepaths is inevitably going to result in a parade of runs. Choi is going to need to BABIP his way into a good start, and I just don&rsquo;t believe that he&rsquo;ll have the command nor the luck to work his way out of the several jams he&rsquo;s likely to get into. Combine this with the fact that Kiwoom has their best arm on the mound and we&rsquo;ve got a perfect spot for the Heroes to jump out in front and ride their ace to a comfortable win over a really good team.

Game Plays:

1: Kiwoom -1.5 (+110) 4U MAX

2: Kiwoom 1H -0.5 (-145) 2U

3: Kiwoom TT OV 5.5 (-115) 1U

4: Kiwoom 1st Inning ML (+200) .5U

&nbsp;

G2: KT Wiz (-275) VS Hanwha Eagles (+205) O/U 10.5

Wiz: 

SP: Min-soo Kim

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.96

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 5.73 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 37.2 IP, 57 H, 20 K, 12 BB

If you looked at Kim&rsquo;s stats right off the bat, you&rsquo;d probably have to be insane to consider him a legit arm to bet on. And maybe I am insane, but I&rsquo;m finding some value here, particularly with the obvious in that the matchup is against a terrible Hanwha offense that just can&rsquo;t hit for power with any kind of consistency. And, believe it or not, but limiting power is what Kim does best. He&rsquo;s allowed just 9 XBH in 37.2 IP, and his FIP is nearly a full point lower than his ERA at 4.93 (it was 4.76 last year, likewise lower than his ERA). 4.93 isn&rsquo;t anything to write home about, but I think there&rsquo;s some positive takeaways here. The aforementioned ability to limit power is one, and combine that with his well above-average command (2.87 BB/9), and we&rsquo;ve got a guy that is sneaky compelling against Hanwha. Looking at his six starts, Kim took the ball against Lotte, Kia, SK, NC, LG, and Kiwoom, and actually got better over time despite facing far better teams. In fact, after two below average outings, Kim went on to post the following line against a combination of SK/NC/LG/Kiwoom: 21.1 IP / 2.96 ERA / 1.55 WHIP. Yeah, the WHIP is still bad and he&rsquo;s giving up too many hits, but giving up a touch more than a hit/inning against NC, LG, and Kiwoom isn&rsquo;t anything out of the ordinary, and he actually put up some really good efforts in all of them. Now, Kim draws his easiest matchup of the season, and while I don&rsquo;t expect 7 scoreless innings, I think he&rsquo;s doing to do a very solid job keeping KT in the game and likely out in front. This is as much a bet on Kim&rsquo;s positive regression as Hanwha&rsquo;s inability to hit the ball hard, and it&rsquo;s very feasible that a combination of decent command, limited hard contact, and fortunately placed batted balls creates a scenario where Kim gives up 6 solid innings.

Eagles:

SP: Bum-soo Kim

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 5.68

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.95 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 41 IP, 35 H, 36 K, 27 BB

The regression bug finally caught up to Kim in his last start, as his 5.84 FIP showed up in a start where he was hit pretty hard by Lotte for 4 runs over 6 IP, including two home runs. Kim had been on a pretty solid stretch, having thrown well against Doosan (twice) and Samsung, mixing in a stinker vs NC. I think a huge part of this is his platoon split advantage &ndash; Doosan regularly starts 6-7 lefties, and Samsung runs out around 4 on any given day. On the other hand, KT is a team built around a power-righty core with two lefties that are still elite left-on-left, with their leadoff sitting at a batting average of .382 against lefties and cleanup (the ferocious Baek-ho Kang) ripping off a .471 SLG/.206 ISO against lefties, which would make him one of the best hitters in the league (his statline against righties is downright ridiculous). With their seven righties and flexible two lefties, KT has had tremendous success vs left-handed pitching this year, and against a guy with clear command issues (5.93 BB/9!!!) who has dominated lefties (.333 SLG/.143 ISO) but gotten crushed by righties (.494 SLG/.233 ISO), they&rsquo;re perfectly set up for success. Hanwha&rsquo;s best relievers are left-handed as well, and if they have to go to the pen early, KT could make a mess out of this game quickly. KT beat down on Warwick Saupold last night, who is unquestionably a better pitcher than Kim, and I think that with the right combination of errant control and hard-hit balls, they could score 4+ in the early going and cruise comfortably into another easy win.

Game Plays:

1: KT TT OV 5.5 (-145) 3U

2: KT -1.5 (-125) 3U

3: 1st Inning OV 0.5 (-165) 1U

4: KT 1st Inning ML (+185) .5U

&nbsp;

Extra Plays:

1: SK TT UN 3.5 (-135) 2U

2: Doosan 1H -1 (-155) 1U

3: Doosan -1.5 (-145) 1U

 Welcome to another slate of KBO!!!! This is a big itinerary, with a perhaps surprising pick to lead us off. Will we really be fading the team that&#39;s made us so much money? You&#39;ll see...&nbsp;Enjoy!!!&nbsp;G1: Kiwoom Heroes (-205) VS NC Dinos

JP's KBO July 14 - 15 Writeup

Welcome back to KBO writeups!!! Been insanely busy the last week or two, but still riding an awesome win streak that I&#39;m looking to carry into tonight. Let&#39;s get after it!!

&nbsp;

WILL UPDATE RECORD THIS WEEKEND &ndash; DON&rsquo;T HAVE TIME TO GO THROUGH AND DO IT RIGHT NOW. THIS WEEK HAS BEEN +13U, AND LAST WEEK WAS POSITIVE ALSO.

G1: Kia Tigers (+100) VS Kiwoom Heroes (-120) O/U 8.5

Tigers:

SP: Hyun-jong Yang

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 2.29

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 5.55 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 58.1 IP, 64 H, 42 K, 16 BB

Based on his Yang&rsquo;s stellar run from 2013-2019, concluding in an absolutely terrific 2.29 ERA/2.59 FIP season last year, it&rsquo;s a little surprising that he&rsquo;s trended so far downwards this season. It&rsquo;s hard to know what exactly is going on, but Yang seems to either get shelled or dominate his starts. He has four starts of 4+ runs allowed that have definitely inflated his ERA, but also six of 2 or fewer that show some promise on the other end. It&rsquo;s hard to find any kind of rhyme or reason here &ndash; he&rsquo;s gotten shelled by the same teams he shuts down (i.e. both Kiwoom and KT, where one start was a 5-inning shellacking, and the other was dominant), and it&rsquo;s easy to think that at some point he&rsquo;ll emerge from this rut and put it all back together. However, I just don&rsquo;t think now is that time. He&rsquo;s coming off an absolute slaughter against NC, where his final statline read 4.1 IP / 8 ER / 11 H / 2 HR / 1 K, and he just pitched against Kiwoom last week in a game that could have been much worse barring some timely pitches and fortunate outs. As Yang prepares to face the Heroes for the third time this season, I&rsquo;m looking at a few things. His 4.82 FIP, fairly average strikeout and walk rates, and an increasing propensity to give up extra base hits all suggest that even if he does positively regress, he just hasn&rsquo;t had the same kind of wipeout stuff from the last few seasons. This will be present against Kiwoom, where even in a decent last start he managed just three strikeouts over six innings, leading to plenty of contact and a couple really nice chances. Kiwoom also just saw a lefty last night, so they&rsquo;re as prepared as they possibly could be for this matchup. I don&rsquo;t see Yang getting embarrassed by any means, but I think he&rsquo;ll give up at least 2-3, and Kiwoom will have several chances to add more with some situational baseball.

Heroes:

SP: Won-tae Choi

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.38

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 62.1 IP, 62 H, 44 K, 16 BB

While Choi has also had a slightly worse 2020 than 2019, I have a far different sense for his potential versus Yang&rsquo;s. His FIP, walk rate and strikeout rate are all better, and its extremely clear that he&rsquo;s giving up less hard contact (17 XBH vs 28 XBH). He&rsquo;s also had some great success against Kia, a team that&rsquo;s now in even worse shape with arguably their most diverse hitter (and KBO batting average leader) injured. Choi has the perfect combination of stuff to face a team like Kia, which is extremely top-heavy and relies almost 100% on production from the top 3-4 hitters to make things happen. Choi&rsquo;s skillset &ndash; hardly walking anyone, striking out enough to get by, and limiting hard contact &ndash; is pretty much exactly what you&rsquo;re looking for in a pitcher to support against Kia, considering he should be able to make it through his outing without having to face the top of the order more than once or twice. Kiwoom&rsquo;s bullpen is pretty shot at this point, as the top two-three relievers have thrown both of the last two days, so I&rsquo;m going to work heavier on first-half plays vs full game, but this works in the Heroes&rsquo; favor anyway, as Kia probably has the better bullpen to start with and does a pretty good job limiting late-inning runs with a few hard-throwing righties. I wouldn&rsquo;t be surprised to see Kiwoom still win behind a strong effort from Choi, but it&rsquo;s in our best interest to place a great emphasis on the first five than the whole game. Sample size isn&rsquo;t always the best indicator of future projections, but for what it&rsquo;s worth, Choi looked absolutely untouchable vs Kia last week, giving up just one soft hit and striking out six over 7 scoreless innings. Now, with Kia missing a top hitter and a critical piece of their lineup, I can&rsquo;t really see them doing much against Choi.

Game Plays:

1: Kiwoom 1H ML (-125) 3U

2: Kiwoom ML (-120) 1U

3: 1H UN 5 (-120) 1U

&nbsp;

G2: LG Twins (+130) VS NC Dinos (-160) O/U 9

Twins: 

SP: Chan-gyu Lim

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.97

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.14 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 54.1 IP, 57 H, 54 K, 14 BB

On the surface, Lim looks like a guy I&rsquo;m typically taking advantage of. He limits XBH, has a better FIP than ERA (3.99 vs 4.14), and has a high strikeout rate with decent walk rate. But this is a case of needing to understand that there&rsquo;s more here than meets the eye, and I&rsquo;m going to start with one thing: Lim&rsquo;s matchups. Somehow, he&rsquo;s completely avoided every good team in the league other than outings against KT and Kiwoom, where he was shelled both times (12 IP / 14 H / 10 ER). Other than that, he&rsquo;s had outings against SK (three times), Samsung (twice), Hanwha (once), and Kia (once), which isn&rsquo;t exactly a murderer&rsquo;s row of opponents. I&rsquo;m looking at his stats from the last few years &ndash; not a single ERA or FIP below 4.70 since 2013 &ndash; and I think this is a guy that is massively overrated based on the quality (or lack thereof) of opponents. I&rsquo;m combining the eye test with the data on this one and looking for Lim to show up and get rocked by a Dinos offense that can click in a hurry. I only consider two of his outings this year to be against opponents that can match up bat-for-bat with NC at all, and he&rsquo;s gotten absolutely rocked in both of them, so I see no reason why that trend changes tonight. LG&rsquo;s bullpen is pretty shot, having had to use 13 relievers in three days vs Doosan, and I don&rsquo;t see Lim getting through more than 5 (tops 6) before having to turn it over to a few lower-end arms in the pen. This is a great spot for the Dinos to explode, and I can see them putting 3-4 on Lim before stacking a couple against the pen in the later innings and running away with this game.

Dinos:

SP: Drew Rucinski

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.05

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 2.30 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 70.1 IP, 58 H, 65 K, 20 BB

Though Rucinski has had some control struggles that are contributing to a higher FIP than ERA (3.84 vs 2.30), it&rsquo;s not like that FIP is terrible, and he has consistently shown up to pitch well against oppponents of every caliber. Unlike Lim, Rucinski has had plenty of tough matchups, pitching against Doosan (twice), KT (twice), and Kia (twice), along with a smattering of other lower-end opponents who he&rsquo;s mostly completely dominated. LG is somewhere in the middle, and they&rsquo;ve really been slumping recently (other than taking advantage of some bad Doosan pitching), including a 2-hit shutout last night by Bears SP Raul Alcantara, who made LG look like a team that&rsquo;s never picked up a bat. Despite his stellar ERA, I&rsquo;m still inclined to believe that Rucinski isn&rsquo;t the best arm in the KBO, but he&rsquo;s been really effective recently, and has only allowed more than 3 ER in a start once the entire season, all the way back in early May. Over his last 13 IP, he&rsquo;s been spectacular, putting up 10 K&rsquo;s and just 1 ER against Doosan and Kia, two opponents that profile similarly or better than LG. I think he&rsquo;ll come out tonight extremely competitively, and potentially will have some strong backup in terms of run support that he won&rsquo;t give up. I don&rsquo;t see LG scoring more than 2-3 against him, and while NC&rsquo;s pen isn&rsquo;t much to speak about, Rucinski has consistently given the Dinos at least 6 IP, with starts frequently floating into the 7+ range. If he can go that far, they&rsquo;ll do the rest, and NC does have a solid left-handed arm or two they can use to work through LG&rsquo;s lefty-heavy lineup in the late innings. Regardless, I feel pretty strongly that NC will score enough runs that the cushion will be there, and I&rsquo;d be far more worried about LG&rsquo;s long-relief situation than NC&rsquo;s, though a blown save is always possible in this league. &nbsp;&nbsp;

Game Plays:

1: NC TT OV 4.5 (-130) 3U

2: NC 1H -0.5 (-115) 2U

3: NC -1.5 (+100) 2U

&nbsp;

Extra Plays:

1: Doosan -1.5 (-140) 1U

PARLAY:

Doosan 1H ML + NC 1H ML (+143): 2U

 Welcome back to KBO writeups!!! Been insanely busy the last week or two, but still riding an awesome win streak that I&#39;m looking to carry into tonight. Let&#39;s get after it!!&nbsp;WILL UPDATE RECORD THIS WEEKEND &ndash; DON&rsquo;T HAVE TIME T

JP's KBO July 9 - 10 Writeup

IMMEDIATE DISCLAIMER &ndash; THIS IS THE MOST FULL CARD I WILL LIKELY EVER PUBLISH, AND I DO NOT RECOMMEND BETTING EVERY SINGLE PLAY ON HERE. THESE ARE THE PLAYS I PERSONALLY AM MAKING, AND AM COMFORTABLE DOING SO BECAUSE THEY DIVERSIFY ACROSS FIVE DIFFERENT GAMES, BUT BANKROLL MANAGEMENT IS CRUCIAL, AND IF YOU ARE RISK-AVERSE IN ANY WAY OR JUST PREFER NOT TO HAVE AS MUCH MONEY OUTSTANDING, DO NOT FOLLOW EVERY PLAY ON THIS CARD. PICK AND CHOOSE WHERE YOU LIKE, OR REACH OUT TO ASK ME QUESTIONS INDIVIDUALLY. THANK YOU. 

&nbsp;

OVERALL RECORD: +87.1U (164-113-14) &ndash; $100 bettor up $8,710

Record on 5U PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-0 (+5U)

Record on 4U MAX Plays: 6-4-1 (+4.2U)

Record on 3U Plays: 30-15-2 (+37.5U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-7 (-11.4U)

Record on 2U Plays: 70-39-9 (+43.4U)

Record on 1U Plays: 54-40-2 (+7.05U)

<div>
Record on .5U Plays: 9-15 (+1.3U)
</div>

&nbsp;

G1: Kia Tigers (-315) VS Hanwha Eagles (+225) O/U 9.5

Tigers:

SP: Ki-young Im

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 5.73

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 2.91 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 43.1 IP, 43 H, 39 K, 7 BB

We start tonight with not only one of my favorite pitchers on the slate, but the pitcher with by far the best matchup. Im, who ranks 2nd in the league in hard-hit ball % (12.1, just 0.1 behind leader and teammate Aaron Brooks), 6th in FIP, and 7th in ERA, has the tremendous opportunity to face a team that ranks last (by a pretty considerable margin) in almost every possible hitting category. To put it simply, this is a match made in heaven. Im hasn&rsquo;t allowed more than 2 ER in any of his last four starts, and just once in his seven (3 against KT on May 27th). He&rsquo;s only given up 2 HR the entire season, both of which came in the same outing. Furthermore, his command is practically impeccable, with a 1.45 BB/9 that ranks 2nd in the KBO, just behind Kiwoom ace Eric Jokisch. This is a guy who&rsquo;s analytically sound and passes the eye test, with stuff that produces enough strikeouts to be high-end in a contact league. I like Im in any matchup, but Hanwha is just so bad, and anyone who thinks otherwise is being swayed by a tiny sample size of recent &ldquo;success&rdquo; that they&rsquo;ve had, which came against some of the worst pitching in the KBO (and a 9-run explosion in a game in the midst of a torrential downpour). Color me completely unconvinced. I&rsquo;d be shocked to see Im allow more than one run tonight, and I don&rsquo;t see Hanhwa scoring more than two as a whole. Kia&rsquo;s bullpen has been spotty at times, but it&rsquo;s still one of the best in the KBO, so Im will have some nice backup after he exits. This is also a terrific spot for any DFS players &ndash; he&rsquo;s an absolute no-doubter in your starter spot. Lock Im in for 6-7 IP, less than 2 ER, and an extremely quality outing.

Eagles:

SP: Shi-hwan Jang

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.95

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 6.21 ERA, 2.07 WHIP, 37.2 IP, 53 H, 46 K, 25 BB

Jang is the exact opposite of Im in that he&rsquo;s practically a model of inconsistency. His last start was dreamlike, striking out 9 over 5 IP with 1 ER, but in his prior 20 IP he had allowed 20 ER. Not ideal. In an appearance vs Kia earlier this year, Jang had perhaps the worst control outing of the KBO season, walking six batters and giving up 7 hits en route to 3 ER (4 runs total). His control is absolutely awful, as he&rsquo;s walked less than 2 batters in an outing exactly once this season and has walked 3 or more in five of his eight outings. This is extremely concerning against the Kia offense &ndash; if you recall my prior writeups, this is an offense I fade against control, and stack against a lack thereof. The Tigers don&rsquo;t have a ton of depth in the bottom of their order, but they have some mashers at the top (including two terrific lefties), and they have consistently hit better as a team against righties than lefties this season (.294 AVG/.434 SLG against righties, .228 AVG/.387 SLG vs lefties). This is an ideal matchup for them in that they&rsquo;ll have a chance to score some runs early and give Im a lead that he should have no trouble protecting. I don&rsquo;t necessarily expect Kia to score 7+, because they don&rsquo;t really have the firepower for it, but I have their magic number at 5. If they get there, consider it a cover.

Game Plays:

1: Kia -1.5 (+100) 3U 

2: Hanwha TT UN 3.5 (-110) 3U

3: UN 9.5 (-120) 2U&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G2: NC Dinos (-385) VS Lotte Giants (+270) O/U 9.5

Dinos:

SP: Chang-mo Koo&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.20&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 1.37 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 59 IP, 33 H, 65 K, 12 BB

Indulge me momentarily as I hail the return of the king, and explain to you why his last outing &ndash; 4 ER in 4 IP against KT &ndash; should mostly be discarded as null and void. He was pitching on the back end of a doubleheader (something most aces don&rsquo;t ever even do), and had been sitting in the dugout for at least 7 hours before having to get warmed up and start, not even on his own timing. The result was his only outing of the year of more than 1 ER, and let me tell you how considered I am: NOT AT ALL. Before this outing, Koo&rsquo;s stats read as the following:

&nbsp;55 IP / 0.82 ERA / 0.65 WHIP / 61 K / 11 BB

That is simply videogame like. This includes starts against Doosan (twice), KT, and Kiwoom (twice), so it&rsquo;s not like he&rsquo;s scraped by against subpar competition. Koo checks every box you could possibly look for in any arm, whether KBO or MLB. He passes the eye test as a 23-year-old lefthander sitting 90-93 with good offspeed and elite command. His analytics check out, as he sports an absolutely elite 2.42 FIP and ranks 6th in the KBO in hard contact rate, supporting the suface level stats we see above. Now, he faces a Lotte offense that may have scored 10 runs last night, but had averaged just over 3/game in the last five before that against pitching ranging from subpar to decent. If anything, this is the perfect fade-Lotte time. They&rsquo;re coming off a big extra-inning win last night and starting one of the worst pitchers on a KBO roster, so its very possible multiple starters aren&rsquo;t in the lineup in a game that&rsquo;s most likely being chalked up as a loss already. Even if the normal lineup comes trotting out, I couldn&rsquo;t be less concerned. Pitching at home, where has allowed exactly 3 ER over his last 29 innings pitched, I&rsquo;m dubbing this the Chang-mo Koo Revenge Game. There will be some weary legs coming off yesterday, and I&rsquo;d be surprised to see Koo give up anything more than 2 ER and go anything less than 7 IP.

Giants:

SP: Won-sam Jang

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 7.98

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 15.00 ERA, 3.67 WHIP, 3 IP, 10 H, 0 K, 1 BB

It&rsquo;s not an exaggeration to say Jang literally might be the worst pitcher in the KBO. He&rsquo;s 37 years old and has spent most of this season in the minors, making his only appearance in a start against Doosan and getting obliterated over 3 innings. He hasn&rsquo;t had an ERA below 5.61 since 2015, and his FIP hasn&rsquo;t dipped below 4.58 in since 2012, suggesting that this sustained period of failure is not an accident. In his prime, Jang was actually an elite KBO arm, but the last time he possessed anything resembling that form was around 2009. It&rsquo;s exceedingly clear that he&rsquo;s making an emergency start today, and if you recall, Lotte used an obscene EIGHT RELIEVERS last night. EIGHT!!! They&rsquo;re going to be absolutely shot on arms, and if I had to guess, Jang is going to be the sacrificial lamb. If things start off badly, I literally would not be surprised to see him suffer on the mound for 100+ pitches and just watch Dinos circle the bases. The key is getting going early &ndash; if the Dinos establish some offensive sentiment quickly, they could realistically score 10 runs or more, and my somewhat bold prediction is the last Lotte arm in this game is a position player after they run out of available pitching (is there a line for that?). Win or lose, this is the kind of game where you simply have to roll with the team that has the best starter in the KBO, the best offense in the KBO, is playing at home, and is facing arguably the worst pitcher in the KBO coupled with a bottom-three offense in the league.

Game Plays:

1: NC -1.5 (-165) 5U PLAY OF THE YEAR

2: NC 1H -1 (-175) 4U MAX

3: NC TT OV 5.5 (-125) 3U

4: Lotte TT UN 3.5 (-115) 2U

&nbsp;

G3: Kiwoom Heroes (-145) VS Doosan Bears (+115) O/U 10.5

Heroes:

SP: Hyun-hee Han

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.41

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.38 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 51.1 IP, 61 H, 38 K, 12 BB

Believe it or not, but I&rsquo;m about to side with another pitcher on the road against Doosan. I&rsquo;m just absolutely convinced that Han is a better pitcher than the 4.38 ERA indicates, and the last couple years of his career (where he&rsquo;s typically sat in the 3s and low 4s in FIP), coupled with a really good 3.71 FIP this year, tells me I may be onto something. Han has allowed 61 hits in 51.1 IP, but of those, only six have been extra base hits, including just two home runs. This lines up almost perfectly with his 2019, where it was practically impossible for him to give up home runs, and he pitched to the tune of a 3.41 ERA / 3.30 FIP, ranking as one of the best starters in the KBO. Honestly, after the start to his season, I could understand giving up on him; he gave up 15 ER in his first 22.1 IP, and things looked like they were steadily heading downhill. But over the next 24 IP &ndash; including starts against NC and LG twice &ndash; Han has looked like a practically different human being, putting up 24 IP / 3.00 ERA / 1.16 WHIP / 18 K / 3 BB. That being said, tonight is going to be the toughest matchup out of any of those starts &ndash; Doosan is absolutely loaded with lefties and has torched pitching on the road (outside of their massive home ballpark). I wouldn&rsquo;t be shocked to see them get to Han in pieces, but at the same time, this guy hasn&rsquo;t allowed a home run since May 21st and has looked like an entirely different pitcher over the last five starts. This will be an interesting test for both pitcher and hitter &ndash; I personally believe that Han has the ability to limit Doosan to 2-4 runs over 6 IP tonight, which would set up perfectly for Kiwoom to work matchups the rest of the way. On the other hand, if Doosan knocks him out early, they could put up 5+ runs as well. I&rsquo;m leaning towards the former being the case, and just like last night, placing in my faith in the Heroes pitching staff.

Bears:

SP: Young-ha Lee

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.64

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 6.29 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 48.2 IP, 65 H, 35 K, 27 BB

You may be asking me why I&rsquo;ve given the benefit of the doubt to one pitcher with a great 2019 and subpar 2020 and I&rsquo;m about to attack the other. Well, the answer lies in the details, where it&rsquo;s exceedingly clear that something is wrong with Lee. He started the season well, with just 3 ER over his first 11.1 IP, and since then has proceeded to give up 4 or more ER in his next five out of seven starts, including 6 to Samsung, 7 to NC, 7 to LG, and 4 to SK, the latter three all occurring consecutively in the starts prior to this one. Whether the significant falloff lies in his command &ndash; he&rsquo;s dropped from an already ugly 3.36 BB/9 to a horrendous 4.99 &ndash; or more hard-hit balls (17 XBH in 48 IP, on pace to double his XBH number from last year), something is going on here, and against a Kiwoom team that&rsquo;s been torching bad pitching, I don&rsquo;t expect him to make many positive strides. He hardly ever strikes anyone out, so Kiwoom will have the power to swing away without many restrictions and not have to worry about swing-and-miss stuff. The Heroes are making a surge for the top of the leaderboard, and actually led the KBO in wins in June, and I&rsquo;m guessing hitters eyes are lighting up when they see what&rsquo;s on the slate tonight, particularly after Doosan had to run through three relievers last night and further compound their bullpen issues. While it&rsquo;s possible that Lee regains his 2019 form out of nowhere, I&rsquo;m leaning towards that being mostly an outlier, considering his FIP was a less-than-stellar 3.96, following years of 6.75 and 5.46. The number of hitters he walks is going to be problematic tonight, and if Kiwoom can come up with a big hit or two, they can run away with this game.

Game Plays: 

1: Kiwoom TT OV 5.5 (-115) 2U

2: Kiwoom ML (-140) 2U

3: Kiwoom -1.5 (+120) 1U

4: OV 10.5 (-120) 1U

&nbsp;

OTHER PLAYS:

1: SK 1H UN 5 (-140) 2U

2: SK/Samsung UN 9 (ALT SPREAD FROM 8.5, -130) 2U

3: SK 1H +0.5 (-130) 1U

4: Samsung TT UN 4.5 (-135) 1U

5: KT 1H +0.5 (-110) 1U

 IMMEDIATE DISCLAIMER &ndash; THIS IS THE MOST FULL CARD I WILL LIKELY EVER PUBLISH, AND I DO NOT RECOMMEND BETTING EVERY SINGLE PLAY ON HERE. THESE ARE THE PLAYS I PERSONALLY AM MAKING, AND AM COMFORTABLE DOING SO BECAUSE THEY DIVERSIFY ACROSS FIVE 

JP's KBO June 30 - July 1 Writeup

I can&rsquo;t express how excited I am about this slate!! There&rsquo;s a ton of diversity in these picks, and all the games should be exciting to watch. A long recap will be coming tomorrow. For now, please enjoy the picks.

OVERALL RECORD: +83.2U (158-110-14) &ndash; $100 bettor up $8,320

Record on 5U PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-0 (+5U)

Record on 4U MAX Plays: 6-4-1 (+4.2U)

Record on 3U Plays: 29-13-2 (+42.25U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-7 (-11.4U)

Record on 2U Plays: 67-39-9 (+39.3U)

Record on 1U Plays: 49-40-2 (+2.05U)

<div>
Record on .5U Plays: 9-14 (+1.8U)
</div>

&nbsp;

G1: Kia Tigers (-240) VS Hanwha Eagles (+165) O/U 9.5

LINES ARE NOT HERE ANY MORE, I SUGGEST YOU REACH OUT TO ME FOR MORE DETAILS IF YOU WANT EARLY TIPS ON PLAYS LIKE THIS

Tigers:

SP: Ki-young Im

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 5.73

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 2.91 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 43.1 IP, 43 H, 39 K, 7 BB

We start tonight with not only my favorite pitcher on the slate, but the pitcher with by far the best matchup. Im, who ranks 2nd in the league in hard-hit ball % (12.1, just 0.1 behind leader and teammate Aaron Brooks), 6th in FIP, and 7th in ERA, has the tremendous opportunity to face a team that ranks last (by a pretty considerable margin) in almost every possible hitting category. To put it simply, this is a match made in heaven. Im hasn&rsquo;t allowed more than 2 ER in any of his last four starts, and just once in his seven (3 against KT on May 27th). He&rsquo;s only given up 2 HR the entire season, both of which came in the same outing. Furthermore, his command is practically impeccable, with a 1.45 BB/9 that ranks 2nd in the KBO, just behind Kiwoom ace Eric Jokisch. This is a guy who&rsquo;s analytically sound and passes the eye test, with stuff that produces enough strikeouts to be high-end in a contact league. I like Im in any matchup, but Hanwha is just so bad, and anyone who thinks otherwise is being swayed by a tiny sample size of recent &ldquo;success&rdquo; that they&rsquo;ve had, which came against some of the worst pitching in the KBO (and a 9-run explosion in a game in the midst of a torrential downpour). Color me completely unconvinced. I&rsquo;d be shocked to see Im allow more than one run tonight, and I don&rsquo;t see Hanhwa scoring more than two as a whole. Kia&rsquo;s bullpen has been spotty at times, but it&rsquo;s still one of the best in the KBO, so Im will have some nice backup after he exits. This is also a terrific spot for any DFS players &ndash; he&rsquo;s an absolute no-doubter in your starter spot. Lock Im in for 6-7 IP, less than 2 ER, and an extremely quality outing.

Eagles:

SP: Shi-hwan Jang

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.95

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 6.21 ERA, 2.07 WHIP, 37.2 IP, 53 H, 46 K, 25 BB

Jang is the exact opposite of Im in that he&rsquo;s practically a model of inconsistency. His last start was dreamlike, striking out 9 over 5 IP with 1 ER, but in his prior 20 IP he had allowed 20 ER. Not ideal. In an appearance vs Kia earlier this year, Jang had perhaps the worst control outing of the KBO season, walking six batters and giving up 7 hits en route to 3 ER (4 runs total). His control is absolutely awful, as he&rsquo;s walked less than 2 batters in an outing exactly once this season and has walked 3 or more in five of his eight outings. This is extremely concerning against the Kia offense &ndash; if you recall my prior writeups, this is an offense I fade against control, and stack against a lack thereof. The Tigers don&rsquo;t have a ton of depth in the bottom of their order, but they have some mashers at the top (including two terrific lefties), and they have consistently hit better as a team against righties than lefties this season (.294 AVG/.434 SLG against righties, .228 AVG/.387 SLG vs lefties). This is an ideal matchup for them in that they&rsquo;ll have a chance to score some runs early and give Im a lead that he should have no trouble protecting. I don&rsquo;t necessarily expect Kia to score 7+, because they don&rsquo;t really have the firepower for it, but I have their magic number at 5. If they get there, consider it a cover.

Game Plays:

1: Kia -1.5 (+100) 3U 

2: Hanwha TT UN 3.5 (-110) 3U

3: UN 9.5 (-120) 2U&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G2: Kiwoom Heroes (+105) VS Doosan Bears (-120) O/U 11

AS WITH PRIOR GAME, LINES ARE NOT HERE ANY MORE. I CAN&rsquo;T REACH OUT TO EVERYONE INDIVIDUALLY TO SUGGEST THESE PLAYS, SO IF YOU WANT TO DISCUSS EARLY NOTIFICATIONS, PLEASE DM ME. 

Heroes:

SP: Seung-ho Lee

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.48

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.89 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 46 IP, 52 H, 27 K, 16 BB

I&rsquo;ve done crazier things than this, but betting against Doosan on the road vs a pitcher with an ERA around 5.00 may come across as outlandish. However, it&rsquo;s pretty clear that Lee has some underlying positive tendencies that play particularly well in this matchup. By far the most important is that he&rsquo;s left-handed, and practically dominated left-handed hitting this season. His split stats read as the following (enjoy my personally created tables):

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/06/30/seung-ho-lee-table.png" style="height:128px; width:852px" />

Now, take a look at Doosan&rsquo;s platoon splits:

<img src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/06/30/image.png" style="height:55px; width:326px" />

First, let me state that I hate batting average as a statistic, and only have it in here as a frame of reference. Moving into things I consider far more important, it&rsquo;s extremely clear that while Doosan may hit for the same average (and Lee actually allows a higher batting average to lefties than righties), the run production is nowhere near close for Doosan vs lefties like Lee, and Lee vs lefty-dominant teams like Doosan. Lee&rsquo;s ISO against lefties is absolutely elite (for comparison, Chang-mo Koo&rsquo;s ISO vs lefties is 0.042), and with Doosan potentially starting 5+ LHB, I love his chances tonight. LG and NC are similarly lefty-heavy teams, and Lee&rsquo;s last appearances vs them combine for: 11 IP / 2 ER / 6 K / 0 BB. Not bad! He&rsquo;s a bold play, but I love the matchup, and think he has the potential to limit Doosan to around 2 ER over 5 innings and turn it over to a solid Kiwoom pen to work some matchups and run the game to its close.

Bears:

SP: Hui-kwan Yu

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.25

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.66 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 46.1 IP, 62 H, 17 BB

Yu is one of the most mystifying pitchers I&rsquo;ve ever seen. He literally sits 79-82 MPH, and threw a curveball around 55 MPH last weekend. I have absolutely no idea how he&rsquo;s survived this long, but he somehow has practically thrived in the KBO for 8 years. That is, until this season, where it appears Yu&rsquo;s luck has finally run dry. He&rsquo;s been roundly shelled in nearly half his outings, including a 2.1 IP / 11 H / 6 ER shellacking by SK last weekend. He&rsquo;s completely reliant on BABIP, and tonight faces the hardest-hitting team by percentage (just over the Twins) in the KBO. Furthermore, Yu is a lefty, which serves him poorly against a Kiwoom team that features 3-4 power right-handed bats, and a few speedy lefties that are equally proficient against either side. Using all the available data I could find, Kiwoom&rsquo;s splits are higher in terms of batting average, slugging percentage, and ISO against lefties than righties, data that doesn&rsquo;t surprise me given their aforementioned right-handed mashers. Honestly, I&rsquo;ll say this: Yu could somehow defy all laws of physics and induce Kiwoom to ground out softly 18 times in a row. But I&rsquo;m going to side with Heroes hitters here, who profile similarly in terms of makeup to KT, who torched Yu for 9 ER / 17 H over two starts combining to 10 IP. Yu&rsquo;s FIP is a poor 5.45, he strikes out literally nobody, and even his trusty BB/9 has fallen to fairly average at 2.27 BB/9. Kiwoom will have traffic on the bases from start to finish, and they&rsquo;ll consistently be a swing or two from cracking it open completely, which I believe they will do sooner rather than later.

Game Plays: 

1: Kiwoom TT OV 4.5 (-130) 3U

2: Kiwoom ML (+105) 2U

3: Doosan TT UN 5.5 (-120) 1U

4: OV 10.5 (-110) 1U

5: 1st Inning OV 0.5 (-160) 1U

&nbsp;

G3: NC Dinos (-305) VS Lotte Giants (+220) O/U 10.5

Dinos:

SP: Mike Wright

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: N/A, in MLB

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.60 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 50 IP, 44 H, 41 K, 23 BB

Wright is a confounding case of a former Major Leaguer who really just hasn&rsquo;t been any kind of dominant in the KBO. His command is shoddy, he doesn&rsquo;t strike out too many guys, and he gives up a decent amount of contact. However, he has done a fairly excellent job limiting runs (other than his second-to-last start, against Kia), and he ranks 5th in the KBO in hard-hit ball percentage. In general, I&rsquo;m not really super high on Wright, but I&rsquo;m extremely low on Lotte. They really don&rsquo;t have any kind of power in their lineup, and with it being majority right-handed (8 out of 9 starters), Wright will be able to beat guys inside and have a pretty high level of success. While he&rsquo;s not someone I&rsquo;m going to day-in day-out, he&rsquo;s only given up 10 XBH in 50 IP, and just one home run in his last 22 IP, which I&rsquo;m interpreting as an encouraging sign that he&rsquo;s making progress in this new league. Facing Lotte is a good spot to continue that progression, and I don&rsquo;t see the Giants putting up more than a few on the board against him, which should be easily enough for the Dinos offense to cover, given the murkiness of Lotte&rsquo;s pitching layout tonight. While I&rsquo;m not going to go heavy on Wright every night &ndash; until he demonstrates consistent dominance &ndash; he&rsquo;s got a great opportunity here to shut down a weak Lotte offense.

Giants:

SP: Dae-woo Kim

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2018 ERA: 13.50

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: N/A, wasn&rsquo;t in KBO

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.60 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 15.2 IP, 13 H, 11 K, 10 BB

Well, this is confusing. Kim literally hasn&rsquo;t started one game in his entire KBO (which bizarrely began in 2009, then he disappeared from 2010-2018), didn&rsquo;t pitch in a game last year, and has thrown a maximum of 30 pitches in his appearances this season (that game he got shelled for 3 ER in 0.1 IP, against Samsung&hellip;). I found some record of his 2019, which took place entirely in the Futures League; he was decent, pitching to the tune of a 2.57 ERA, but let&rsquo;s also consider that he threw 18 total innings, which is way too low of a sample size to judge anything (especially since it was in the Futures League, not even the actual KBO). I&rsquo;d consider this very likely to be a bullpen game for Lotte, but their bullpen isn&rsquo;t all that good, and I think the Dinos will be putting baserunners on throughout the course of the game. I&rsquo;d be pretty surprised to see NC score less than 4-5, with the potential for more if things get ugly early. I wish there was more to say about the pitching here, but without any idea what Lotte&rsquo;s plan is, it&rsquo;s hard to get a read, other than that they absolutely will not be putting anyone on the mound who the Dinos can&rsquo;t get to if the bats are working.

Game Plays:

1: Dinos -1.5 (-145) 3U

2: Dinos 1st Inning ML (+165) .5U

&nbsp;

OTHER PLAYS: 

1: LG 1H ML (-130) 2U

2: LG ML (-135) 1U

3: LG/KT UN 10.5 (-125) 1U 

&nbsp;

PARLAY:

1: NC ML (-305) / Kia ML (-240): 3U (-114)&nbsp;

 I can&rsquo;t express how excited I am about this slate!! There&rsquo;s a ton of diversity in these picks, and all the games should be exciting to watch. A long recap will be coming tomorrow. For now, please enjoy the picks.OVERALL RECORD: +83.2U (1

JP's KBO June 29 - 30 Writeup

Got a decent amount of writing ahead, so I&#39;ll save the recap and intro for a longer one tomorrow, and let you jump right in!!

Good luck!!

&nbsp;

OVERALL RECORD: +67.5U (147-106-13) &ndash; $100 bettor up $6,750

Record on 5U PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-0 (+5U)

Record on 4U MAX Plays: 5-4-1 (+0.2U)

Record on 3U Plays: 26-12-2 (+36.4U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-7 (-11.4U)

Record on 2U Plays: 64-38-8 (+35.6U)

Record on 1U Plays: 45-38-2 (-0.1U)

<div>
Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or greater): 9-14 (+1.8U)
</div>

&nbsp;

G1: Kiwoom Heroes (-150) VS Kia Tigers (+120) O/U 8.5

Heroes:

SP: Eric Jokisch

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.13

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 1.63 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 55 IP, 43 H, 40 K, 9 BB

Jokisch is the perfect pitcher to face Kia for a few reasons, and I&rsquo;ll quickly list them here. First, he limits walks, meaning that the top of the order will have fewer opportunities and the bottom shouldn&rsquo;t be hitting with many (if any) runners in scoring position. His BB/9 is an outstanding 1.46, and it hasn&rsquo;t seen any regression throughout the course of the season, as he&rsquo;s walked a combined two batters in his last 13 innings. Second, he holds a platoon advantage over three of Kia&rsquo;s best four hitters (including foreign slugger Preston Tucker, who went 0/3 against him in his KBO debut in early May), again contributing to the fact that Jokisch will force the shallow back-end of the Kia lineup to put runs on the board, which they have consistently struggled and oftentimes been entirely unable to manufacture. Kia has clearly worked at a defect against pitchers with decent command and ability to limit hard contact, and that&rsquo;s exactly what we have tonight with Jokisch. He&rsquo;s been limited to around 90-100 pitches/start, but that hasn&rsquo;t stopped him from going at least 6 in every single start this season, with the exception of his season debut against Kia (where he went 5, allowing just 1 ER and striking out 4). Jokisch dominated SK at home in his last outing, and starting again in his home ballpark he should be in a terrific position. I wouldn&rsquo;t be surprised if Kiwoom extends him a little bit given their tough slate of games recently, but that doesn&rsquo;t bother me, since he&rsquo;s been equally effective in practically every inning thus far. Jokisch&rsquo;s peripherals support this start &ndash; his FIP ranks near the top of the league at 3.23, and his aforementioned BB/9 is top-five &ndash; and I think he&rsquo;ll put together an extremely solid, and winning, start tonight for the Heroes.

Tigers:

SP: Hyun-jong Yang

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 2.29

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 48 IP, 48 H, 38 K, 13 BB

You will probably immediately notice a difference between Yang&rsquo;s 2019 and 2020. Much of his 2020 decline comes from three really bad starts &ndash; against Samsung, KT, and Kiwoom &ndash; and the rest have been decent, though unspectacular. Looking at Yang&rsquo;s 2019 stats, it seems to have been an extreme outlier in his career. Other than that season, he&rsquo;s never had a FIP below 3.71, and only been below 4.00 twice in 14 seasons. He&rsquo;s back around a 4.52 this year, which likely stems from a combination of being unspectacular with his walk rate (2.44 BB/9), strikeout rate (18.6%), and ability to limit hard contact (18 XBH in 48 IP, including 1.13 HR/9). This is a bad team to be prone to allowing XBH against, considering Kiwoom&rsquo;s calling card is their power, and they just grabbed one of their better hitters back off the injured list. For what it&rsquo;s worth, the Heroes have been hot recently, scoring 9, 7, 8, 5, 8, and 6 over their last six games, including against some semi-decent pitching. Their power is predominantly right-handed (other than their 3-hole), so the majority of the order should hold the platoon advantage, which will help even more. Until Yang starts turning things around consistently, there&rsquo;s not really a reason to bet on him. He looked bad against Kiwoom last time and is just coming off an absolute shellacking at the hands of Samsung. Kiwoom holds a clear advantage on both the pitching and hitting sides of things, and if Jokisch can get into the 6th or 7th, he&rsquo;ll give the bullpen a shot to close it out and even it up for the Heroes in the series.

Game Plays:

1: Kiwoom 1H ML (-150) 3U

2: Kiwoom ML (-150) 2U

3: Kiwoom -1.5 (+130) 1U

&nbsp;

G2: Hanwha Eagles (+150) VS KT Wiz (-205) O/U 10

Eagles:

SP: Min-woo Kim

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 6.75

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 5.36 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 40.1 IP, 41 H, 40 K, 15 BB

Kim has two things going for him: he&rsquo;s a surprisingly efficient strikeout pitcher, and he had a pretty good start to the season. Other than that, things are pretty bleak. Over his last four outings, Kim has put up a statline of: 16.1 IP / 28 H / 18 ER / 6 HR (against SK, Kiwoom, Lotte, and NC). This is not good, italicized for emphasis, and now he gets to face a finally-healthy offense that has had to battle through some really tough pitching but is still as potent as ever, especially against righties, where their dangerous 2-3-4 hitters all hold the platoon advantage. Mel Rojas and Baek-ho Kang are legitimate threats to hit the ball 110 MPH every at-bat, and all it really takes is a few runners in front of them for something to click. Kim has made it past 5 innings exactly once in his last five starts, and that was in a game where he still gave up 8 hits / 4 ER, so I wouldn&rsquo;t exactly have a problem with Hanwha lengthening him out if it means he&rsquo;s getting hit hard. Furthermore, the Eagles ran through several of their better relief pitchers last night as they held KT off down the stretch, meaning they&rsquo;ll have to rely more on younger guys who are primed for explosions at any time. KT will have runners on base, and if they manage to limit strikeouts and put the ball in play hard &ndash; which they should &ndash; they&rsquo;re going to score runs and force Hanwha&rsquo;s bullpen to enter sooner rather than later. A 5.71 FIP and 3.35 BB/9 scream disaster waiting to happen, and KT is a team that thrives off free passes that allow the top of the order to hit with RISP. Rojas and Kang will feast, and KT will score 5+.

Wiz: 

SP: William Cuevas

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.62

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 5.05 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 35.2 IP, 35 H, 28 K, 8 BB

After a terrific 2019 intro to the KBO, Cuevas has really fallen off this season, but there are a few reasons I&rsquo;m not panicked. He&rsquo;s been dealing with a hip injury since practically day one, and after finally being given a few weeks to rest, he came back with a bang, throwing 7 beautiful shutout innings vs Lotte, striking out five and throwing just 85 pitches. He should be back up to around full strength tonight, which means in the range of 100+ pitches and a limited exposure to the KT bullpen. This is terrific news for bettors, who by now are terrified of any game involving more than a few innings of this Wiz pen, which is simply horrible and never ceases to amazing (or dismay). Hanwha&rsquo;s offense has looked good over the last two games, but I&rsquo;m attributing that to a product of some pouring rain and a terrible KT starter, rather than some dramatic change in the Wiz offense. If they light up Cuevas, maybe I&rsquo;ll change my mind, but I think that he&rsquo;ll continue his strong return post-injury and shut down Hanwha. Even if he does give up a few runs, this is a game where the Wiz should score at least 4-5, and I doubt Hanwha gets close to that.

Game Plays:

1: KT Wiz -1.5 (-130) 2U

2: Wiz 1H -1 (-105) 2U

&nbsp;

MORE PLAYS:

1: Doosan 1H ML (-140) 3U

3: Lotte TT UN 4.5 (-110) 2U

4: Samsung +1.5 (-145) 1U

 Got a decent amount of writing ahead, so I&#39;ll save the recap and intro for a longer one tomorrow, and let you jump right in!!Good luck!!&nbsp;OVERALL RECORD: +67.5U (147-106-13) &ndash; $100 bettor up $6,750Record on 5U PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-0 (+

JP's KBO June 17 - 18 Writeup

Welcome to another night in the KBO!! After a monsoon nearly completely wiped out yesterday&#39;s slate, we&#39;re battling through a little more rain to try and get some games in tonight. This is a massive nine-game slate, but with starters not being released for game two of the double-headers until later on, there&#39;s really no point in even trying to write them up, which leaves us with our typical slate of five to choose from. I have two games here that I absolutely love, and while weather may or may not play a factor, it was worth the time and effort in making the writeup happen, because I think this is a terrific slate if everything is able to start. Enjoy!!&nbsp;&nbsp;

OVERALL RECORD: +85.7U (146-103-12) &ndash; $100 bettor up $8,570

Record on 5U PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-0 (+5U)

Record on 4U MAX Plays: 5-3-1 (+4.8U)

Record on 3U Plays: 26-9-2 (+41.5U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-7 (-11.4U)

Record on 2U Plays: 64-34-8 (+44.1U)

Record on 1U Plays: 45-38-1 (-0.1U)

<div>
Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or greater): 9-14 (+1.8U)
</div>

&nbsp;

Samsung Lions (-245) VS Hanwha Eagles (+175) O/U 9.5

Lions:

SP: David Buchanan

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: N/A, in MLB

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.62 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 49.2 IP, 47 H, 34 K, 13 BB

In two of his first three starts this season, Buchanan was absolutely drubbed for 5+ ER, 6+ hits, and 2 or fewer strikeouts in each. Since the conclusion that third start, Buchanan has looked a different man, putting up the following statline: 31.2 IP / 1.38 ERA / 1.12 WHIP / 23 K / 7 BB. And this hasn&rsquo;t come against bad competition either &ndash; he&rsquo;s faced Doosan (7 IP/0 ER), NC (7 IP/1 ER), and KT (6.2 IP/2ER), as well as Kia and SK, all legit teams, three of whom are arguably the best-hitting teams in the KBO. Now, the former Philadelphia Philly gets the matchup of his dreams against a Hanwha team composed almost entirely of KBO Minor Leaguers, an experiment that I would argue has failed, considering that over the course of the last two weeks they are averaging 3.4 runs/game, and practically every run over that number has come in blowouts against the back end of their opposition&rsquo;s pitching. If this game is anything close, Hanwha will be seeing Samsung&rsquo;s top couple relievers, who have had limited use recently and are some of the best arms in the KBO, including the league&rsquo;s all-time saves leader, Seung-hwan Oh. Furthermore, Buchanan is as much a workhorse as anyone in the KBO (save for maybe Dan Straily, more on him soon), throwing over 100 pitches in every outing this year other than his debut, which was a &ldquo;measly&rdquo; 97 pitches. He&rsquo;s gone 7 innings in three of his eight outings, and I&rsquo;m almost willing to bet that this at at least number four &ndash; he may go 8, and honestly, it&rsquo;s really not crazy to think he&rsquo;ll go the distance if his command is there. Hanwha just can&rsquo;t hit, and the last two pitchers they&rsquo;ve faced have been two of Samsung&rsquo;s worst arms. Samsung beat them down on Monday, and they&rsquo;re coming off a heartbreaking loss last night after their closer turned his ankle with two outs in the ninth, had to leave the game, and the following two relievers imploded and blew the lead, ending with a Samsung walk-off. It&rsquo;s hard to imagine Hanwha comes to this game in a great place mentally, and they&rsquo;re physically overmatched as well. This isn&rsquo;t a good spot to get creative &ndash; I don&rsquo;t see them scoring any more than two runs in this game, if that.

Eagles:

SP: Beom-su Kim

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 5.68

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.70 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 23 IP, 21 H, 21 K, 18 BB

I urged caution last week in Kim&rsquo;s appearance vs NC, giving the lefty with decent stuff a little credit and expecting him to come out to pitch in a big spot. He did&hellip; okay? 4.1 IP / 3 ER / 4 K isn&rsquo;t necessarily a terrible statline against the Dinos, and we&rsquo;ve certainly seen much worse, but it wasn&rsquo;t anything special, and he walked multiple batters for the third outing in a row. He&rsquo;s been given a longer leash, but this isn&rsquo;t a guy that&rsquo;s throwing more than five or six innings at most, and hasn&rsquo;t pitched past 77 (his last outing) in a KBO appearance. Hanwha may be attempting to make him a starter, but the command and hard contact issues are going to problematic over the long run in that role. Fortunately for Kim, he lands a softer appearance tonight against Samsung, a team starting multiple lefties and missing their best hitter, former Major Leaguer Tyler Saladino. The absence of Saladino clearly leaves a hole in their lineup, which Hanwha exposed for most of the game last night, putting plenty of Samsung runners on base but leaving the Lions 0/14 with RISP until the 9th-inning implosion. Samsung just doesn&rsquo;t have a ton of power in their order, and their best hitters tonight are left-handed, so this isn&rsquo;t a game I see them scoring more than 6-ish runs, unless something goes horribly wrong in Hanwha&rsquo;s bullpen or they forget how to field (either of these things are entirely possible). That being said, it&rsquo;s not a game they&rsquo;ll go scoreless, either. They just will have too many chances, and as we saw last night, the longer you tempt fate by putting runners on base, the more inevitable it becomes that runs are scored. This is the perfect time to take a look at a parlay, something I rarely post on here. I see this game being a pretty low-scoring Samsung victory, maybe in the range of 3-5 Samsung, 1-2 Hanwha (final prediction: 4-1), so it makes a lot of sense to me to do a few things. One, parlay the under and eat the moneyline juice, which means you won&rsquo;t have to worry about covering the spread. Two, bet the spread on its own around -130, which will 100% hit if the over hits, because I can almost guarantee you Hanwha is not scoring more than 4 runs (probably not even 3), meaning that Samsung has scored around 6 on their own, giving a terrific chance at a cover. In the ideal case, my 4-1 predicted victory covers everything, and it&rsquo;s not out of the question at all for this to happen. You won&rsquo;t see me post many parlays, but this makes a lot of sense in my mind, and gets you to + odds.

Game Plays:

1: Samsung -1.5 (-130) 3U

2: UN 9.5 (+100) 2U

3: Samsung ML/UN 9.5 PARLAY (+180) 2U

4: Hanwha TT UN 3.5 (-110) 2U

&nbsp;

GAME ONE OF THE DOUBLEHEADER: Lotte Giants (-200) VS Kia Tigers (+145) O/U 9

Giants:

SP: Dan Straily &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: N/A, in MLB

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 2.10 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 55.2 IP, 39 H, 62 K, 17 BB

If you&rsquo;re wondering why Lotte &ndash; a clearly inferior team to Kia &ndash; is -200 in this game, look no further than Lotte&rsquo;s starting pitcher. Straily has been easily the second-best pitcher in the KBO after prospective MVP Chang-mo Koo, absolutely dominating in every single outing this season other than a brief blip against Kia back in May (no, I am not worried about Kia beating Straily becoming a trend). His surface stats are electric &ndash; he&rsquo;s given up just 11 XBH in 55+ IP &ndash; and the peripherals support this start, as he ranks with one of the best FIPs in the KBO at 2.74, possesses the 6th-best hard-hit rate at 13.6%, and is striking out a ton of hitters at a 28.4% clip. Straily has literally had one bad outing the entire season &ndash; he&rsquo;s allowed no more than 2 ER in a single other start the entire year, and over his last three starts, he has gone at least 7 IP with 6+ K&rsquo;s in each, giving up an average of 1 ER and walking a total of two batters. This is a guy who is clearly locked in, and I don&rsquo;t see a Kia team that&rsquo;s really struggled towards the bottom of their order doing much damage here. They do get 2nd basemen Sun-bim Kim back from an injury today, but that&rsquo;s more something to watch for in the near future than the immediate present, as he&rsquo;ll have an incredibly tough matchup in the first game back, and will likely need to shake some rust off anyway after missing 15+ games. Straily&rsquo;s durability and efficiency is second to none, and he&rsquo;s only getting better, coming off an 8-inning, 3-hit, 12-strikeout, 0-walk start on the road at Kiwoom. Back in his home ballpark, and fresh off an extra day of rest, Straily is in an outstanding position to keep rolling and limit Kia to just a few runs tonight.

Tigers:

SP: Min-woo Lee

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 5.43

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 5.12 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 45.2 IP, 44 H, 30 K, 15 BB

Lee hasn&rsquo;t been all that consistent this year, but I would say he&rsquo;s been selectively good and bad, coming in fairly predictable spots. Allow me to explain.

Here are his 2020 stats vs &ldquo;top-three&rdquo; offenses (KT, Doosan, NC): 15 IP / 9.00 ERA / 1.67 WHIP 

Here are his 2020 stats vs &ldquo;other-seven&rdquo; offenses (including Lotte): 30.2 IP / 3.23 ERA / 1.04 WHIP 

Notice a difference? Fortunately for Lee, he gets a start against a true other-seven offense, one that he has already faced this year in one of his best outings. That last time against Lotte, Lee threw 6 solid innings, striking out 6 and giving up just 4 H / 2 ER. Lotte just isn&rsquo;t a team that deals a lot of damage with power, and Lee has done a terrific job limiting that, giving up just 3 HR over 45.2 innings, all of which came in his last two outings (KT/NC). Lotte doesn&rsquo;t measure up to either of those teams, and I&rsquo;d be pretty surprised if they do much damage tonight. Furthermore, Lee&rsquo;s peripherals suggest that he&rsquo;s nowhere near as bad as his ERA says over the last two years, as he rocked a 3.85 FIP in 2019 (crazily low considering the 5.43 ERA) and currently sports a 4.30, suggesting that he is likely a strong candidate for positive regression, particularly against teams that lack the offensive firepower to do much damage. This is a perfect example of a guy who is underrated by bookmakers because of his ERA, but when you dive into his game-by-game logs and other metrics, it&rsquo;s pretty clear he&rsquo;s better than someone who has an ERA in the 5s. I don&rsquo;t think either team gets over four runs tonight, particularly with both bullpens being completely rested following the rain-postponement yesterday.

Game Plays:

1: UN 9 (-120) 4U MAX

2: Kia +1.5 (-120) 2U

3: Lotte TT UN 4.5 (-115) 2U

 Welcome to another night in the KBO!! After a monsoon nearly completely wiped out yesterday&#39;s slate, we&#39;re battling through a little more rain to try and get some games in tonight. This is a massive nine-game slate, but with starters not bei

JP's KBO June 24 - 25 Writeup

JP&#39;s KBO June 22 - 23 Writeup ----- Twitter: @jpbattingprac

Welcome to Night 27 of KBO Writeups! After a crazy last week that involved games as high-scoring as 28, a multitude of extra-inning wins, and some wacky happenings, we&#39;re back for more KBO. This writeup covers 3+ games, and spans more than 5 pages, so I&#39;ll save you the intro and let you get into it!

OVERALL RECORD: +75.7U (145-102-10) &ndash; $100 bettor up $7570

Record on 5U PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-0 (+5U)

Record on 4U MAX Plays: 5-3-1 (+4.8U)

Record on 3U Plays: 26-9-2 (+41.5U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-7 (-11.4U)

Record on 2U Plays: 59-33-6 (+36.1U)

Record on 1U Plays: 43-38-1 (-2.1U)

<div>
Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or greater): 9-14 (+1.8U)
</div>

&nbsp;

G1: Lotte Giants (+135) VS Kia Tigers (-165) O/U 9

Giants:

SP: Jun-won Seo

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 5.47

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.71 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 43.2 IP, 45 H, 22 K, 15 BB

As my readership knows, I&rsquo;m extremely high on using as many advanced analytics as possible to decipher whether a pitcher&rsquo;s success (or lack thereof) is sustainable in either direction, or where I point them heading. That being said, I&rsquo;ve watched Seo pitch several times, and while I think he&rsquo;s a pretty solid KBO arm (and so do the Giants, given his signing bonus), the analytics absolutely hate him. His 3.71 ERA pales with a 5.61 FIP (consistent with a 4.98 FIP last season), and I can easily see why his FIP is that low. His strikeout rate is a putrid 11%, and a BB/9 of 3.09 isn&rsquo;t necessarily impressing anyone. Additionally, he&rsquo;s stranding runners on base at an extremely high percentage, and his BABIP is low. So, given all these things that I typically point at as extremely likely signs towards negative regression, you may be wondering why I&rsquo;m not highlighting Seo as an extremely typical candidate to fade. The reason why lies in his deceptive delivery and propensity to deliver soft contact. Pitching from a low &frac34;-slot with some velocity, Seo has done an incredible job limiting XBH, giving up just 8 over 43.2 IP. This conclusion is supported by his hard-hit ball rate, which ranks in the top 15 in the KBO, meaning that while his extremely low BABIP is likely going to regress, it may not regress all that much. The command issues are definitely there, which is what separates Seo from the elite class of pitching, but I don&rsquo;t think he&rsquo;s as bad as people would necessarily suggest, and I wouldn&rsquo;t be surprised to see him get through 5 or 6 halfway decent innings tonight. All that being said, I am still siding with the Kia side of this matchup, in part due to their offense and in part due to their pitching (more on that soon). Additionally, the Tigers clearly saw something they liked last time against Seo, as they torched him for 11 H / 7 ER over just 4 IP, hitting three home runs along the way. Unfortunately, since that outing, Seo has improved significantly, and Kia lost two of their better hitters (one of whom went 4/5 with 2 RBI in that game), so I see this being a more even affair. However, Seo&rsquo;s command issues will make it tough for him to generate consistent success, and I see Kia scoring a few runs in the early going and taking a lead they&rsquo;ll hold on to nicely, with the potential to add a couple more against Lotte&rsquo;s below-average bullpen that will most certainly be in play, considering Seo hasn&rsquo;t made it through more than 6.2 IP in a single outing.

Tigers:

SP: Aaron Brooks

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: N/A (in MLB)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 48 IP, 42 K, 8 BB

The KBO&rsquo;s leader in generating soft contact, Brooks is one of second-favorite pitcher in this league (after Chang-mo Koo) for multiple reasons. His control is terrific (1.50 BB/9), strikeout rate is serviceable (21.9%), he limits XBH (8 in 48 IP), and his FIP is nearly exactly the same as his ERA (3.01), all suggesting that he is here to stay. Brooks was extremely solid in his last outing vs Lotte, striking out five and giving up 2 ER over 6.2 IP, including shutting out the Giants through five. With a fully rested bullpen behind him, Kia won&rsquo;t need to overextend their starter, and this is a great spot for him to give 5-6 really good innings and turn it over to an above-average pen. Brooks has given up more than 3 ER exactly once in a start this season, and five of his eight starts have resulted in 2 or fewer ER, all of which lasted 5+ IP. This is all to say that Brooks is dependable for solid results, and in a very positive matchup vs Lotte here I love his potential to put it all together for a terrific outing. While they have their moments, Lotte just isn&rsquo;t a very good hitting team, and I don&rsquo;t see them scoring any more than 2 against Brooks, if that. Even if Seo brings his A-Game, Brooks is a better pitcher and Kia is a better offense. This is a game they should win around 5-2, with Brooks going six and the top Kia relievers finishing the job.

Game Plays:

1: Kia -1.5 (+100) 2U

2: Kia 1H -1 (+100) 2U

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; I ALSO DO NOT MIND A PLAY ON THE MONEYLINE HERE IF AVAILABLE; I&rsquo;VE SEEN IT AS LOW AS -155 AND HIGH AS -185; IT WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE, AND A TIE ISN&rsquo;T OUT OF &nbsp; THE QUESTION, SO DON&rsquo;T SHY AWAY FROM ML.

3: Lotte TT UN 4 (-120) 2U

&nbsp;

G2: SK Wyverns (+165) VS Doosan Bears (-225) O/U 10

Wyverns:

SP: Tae-hoon Kim

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.88

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.74 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 38 IP, 26 H, 20 K, 23 BB

After making terrific strides over the past two seasons, Kim has seen extreme regression in 2020, which matches up with his complete inability to command the ball. He&rsquo;s walked 3 or more hitters in 6 of his 7 starts this year, including five vs LG two weeks ago. This has completely negated the fact that he&rsquo;s actually done a really good job limiting hard contact, giving up just 8 XBH this season (only 2 HRs). The one thing Kim has going for him in his matchup tonight vs Doosan is the fact that he&rsquo;s left-handed and Doosan starts 5-7 lefties, and in the past, I&rsquo;ve held off on Bears plays when they lack the platoon advantage. That being said, it&rsquo;s just not possible to lay off the matchup here, at least until Kim shows some of his old ability to command the ball. Against LG &ndash; a team also built up of majority lefties &ndash; Kim presented the following statline: 5.2 IP / 3 H / 5 BB / 3 ER. This isn&rsquo;t necessarily terrible, but it&rsquo;s pretty clear that it could have been way worse, and Doosan is a better-hitting team than LG, particularly on the road outside their spacious ballpark. At some point, you just have to see that Kim is clearly struggling to put good starts together, and he hasn&rsquo;t had a quality start since his second appearance of the season. I don&rsquo;t necessarily expect Doosan to score 10 runs or anything in that vicinity, but this is a game they should for sure plate 4+, and if they start hot, the Bears could get there in the first five innings while Kim is still in the game. In an ideal scenario, he throws far too many pitches early and SK turns to the back of the pen, which could mean Doosan breaks the game open and runs away with it quickly.

Bears:

SP: Chris Flexen

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: N/A, in MLB

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.29 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 41 IP, 34 H, 35 K, 16 BB

While Flexen hasn&rsquo;t been as good of late as he was near the beginning of the season &ndash; perhaps stemming from a hamstring injury he suffered in early June &ndash; he has a perfect opportunity for a bounce-back outing tonight vs a struggling, majority-righthanded SK lineup that he looked solid against earlier this year. His ERA is supported by a 3.77 FIP, and pretty much the only thing to pinpoint about Flexen&rsquo;s season in a negative aspect is that his command has struggled significantly, including 3, 4, and 5 walks in three of his past four outings. This is clearly an issue, but he&rsquo;s still done a pretty good job at limiting hard contact, giving up just two home runs on the season. While SK does have a few power bats in their order, they don&rsquo;t have much depth, so Flexen should be able to work around those guys and isolate the rest of their order, so long as he doesn&rsquo;t run into too much command-based trouble. His best start of the season was an 8-inning, 10-strikeout, 1-run performance against NC, and while that may seem like an outlier in the strikeout category, it is an indication that he can and should compete in this league. Flexen, who I assume will be at or near full capacity pitch-count-wise today, should be in a great spot to limit SK to a run or two, and even if they get a few on the board early, Doosan has a huge mismatch vs Tae-hoon Kim, and their bats will keep them in the game. This is one they have advantages on both sides of the ball in, and I think the famous Bears road offense carries them to victory here.

Game Plays:

1: Doosan -1.5 (-120) 2U

2: 1H OV 5.5 (-105) 1U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G3: Samsung Lions (-180) VS Hanwha Eagles (+150) O/U 10.5

Lions:

SP: Chae-heung Choi

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.81

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.41 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 32.2 IP, 29 H, 24 K, 17 BB

Choi has had a pretty up-and-down season, with three of his six outings consisting of 1 ER or less, and the other three of 4 ER or more, including two disasters over his last two starts, both of which occurred 3-4 weeks ago after a head injury cost him 20 days. On a typical night, he&rsquo;s somebody I probably pass on and watch to see whether his regression is temporary or permanent, particularly after an injury. However, when you&rsquo;ve got a lefty facing Hanwha who&rsquo;s flashed some real success this year and is a former top pick, you have to look twice. It&rsquo;s pretty clear that Hanwha is in a bad place, and they just cut their only foreign hitter, leaving them with even less bang in the box. Additionally, their starting lineup consists of five lefties on a typical day (including their top-three hitters), so Choi will have the platoon advantage most of the game, something that served him well against LG, a team that also starts around five lefties. Choi may not be the most dominant arm the Eagles face this season, but there&rsquo;s definitely value here as a bounce-back start. If he manages to contain the Eagles to a few runs &ndash; which I think he 100% should do &ndash; Samsung will be in a terrific position to win, since Hanwha&rsquo;s Chad Bell has been nothing sort of a confounding disaster this season, and I don&rsquo;t expect it to turn around just yet. This is a good test for Choi &ndash; if he can&rsquo;t come through tonight vs Hanwha, he&rsquo;s in a serious slump on the mound. One of the great things about Samsung is they do have some legit arms in their bullpen, so we don&rsquo;t need Choi to go 7-8 innings; in fact, 5 good innings and out is about the best he can do on the mound, and anything more than that is purely a bonus. I think the time off will help Choi refocus and get ready for tonight, and if anything, he has the softest matchup in the league to come back to. I expect Choi to be decent at worst, with the potential for a really good start if he is locked in.

Eagles:

SP: Chad Bell

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.50

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 8.44 ERA, 2.11 WHIP, 21.2 IP, 31 H, 15 K, 14 BB

Let&rsquo;s just say that the 2019 and 2020 statlines from Chad Bell do not much resemble each other. Since he&rsquo;s returned from an elbow injury in late-May, it&rsquo;s extremely obvious that Bell is nowhere near the same caliber pitcher that he was last year, and it&rsquo;s very probably that something is wrong with him still. He&rsquo;s been absolutely blown up by SK, NC, Doosan, and LG consecutively, and while Samsung isn&rsquo;t the same caliber team as the latter three, they&rsquo;re pretty similar to SK and have a majority platoon advantage over the left-handed Bell. I was pretty cautious about betting against Bell the last few weeks, since sometimes pitchers take an outing or two to put it together, but the signs can&rsquo;t be more clear that all is not well right now, and while I hope he figures it out at some point, I don&rsquo;t see a road matchup against Samsung being the time for that to happen. The Lions faced some extremely tough pitching vs Kia last week, and I&rsquo;m guessing they&rsquo;re extremely excited about this matchup vs Kia. Bell has upped his ante to around 100+ pitches, so this isn&rsquo;t a game Hanwha will likely have to use a ton of their pen, but if it&rsquo;s at all out of reach, Samsung should dominate the back-end arms and coast to a victory. This is a great spot for them to score 3-4 in the early going and tack on 1-2 more through the game, while Choi gives the Lions 6 good low-scoring innings. Until Bell shows sign of being a competent pitcher again, there&rsquo;s really no choice but to bet against him.

Game Plays:

1: Samsung -1.5 (-105) 2U

2: Hanwha TT UN 4 (-115) 2U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

ADDITIONAL GAME PLAYS (not writing this up, but these are all official):

1: Kiwoom TT OV 5.5 (-105) 2U

2: Kiwoom 1H -0.5 (-120) 2U

3: Kiwoom -1.0 (-125) 1U

 JP&#39;s KBO June 22 - 23 Writeup ----- Twitter: @jpbattingpracWelcome to Night 27 of KBO Writeups! After a crazy last week that involved games as high-scoring as 28, a multitude of extra-inning wins, and some wacky happenings, we&#39;re back for mo

JP's KBO June 22 - 23 Writeup

This is a long writeup, so I&rsquo;ll save you the intro. Let&rsquo;s just say I&rsquo;m pumped.&nbsp;

&nbsp;

OVERALL RECORD: +81.98U (132-94-7) &ndash; $100 bettor up $8,198

Record on 4U MAX Plays: 5-1-1 (+14.4U)

Record on 3U Plays: 25-7-1 (+46.45U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-7 (-11.37U)

Record on 2U Plays: 53-28-4 (+36U)

Record on 1U Plays: 38-35-1 (-3.65U)

<div>
Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or greater): 8-14 (+0.85U)
</div>

&nbsp;

G1: Hanwha Eagles (+175) VS LG Twins (-270) O/U 10 

NOTE: THESE ODDS ARE NOWHERE NEAR THE SAME AS THEY ARE NOW; I GAVE OUT PICKS TO AT THIS SET OF ODDS EARLIER TODAY IN THE BET KARMA DISCORD AND VIA TWITTER DM&rsquo;S FOR PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN CONTACTING ME OR CONSISTENTLY SUPPORTING TWEETS. IF YOU WANT THE SAME, DROP SOME LIKES/RTS/COMMENTS OR REACH OUT TO ME

Eagles:

SP: Shi-hwan Jang (2/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.95

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 7.48 ERA, 2.24 WHIP, 27.2 IP, 41 H, 34 K, 21 BB

I&rsquo;ll start Jang&rsquo;s writeup this way &ndash; he was sent down to the minors after getting destroyed by NC on June 5th (3 IP / 7 H / 3 BB / 4 ER), and has thrown exactly one inning of competitive baseball since then. In some cases, this rest is exactly what a pitcher needs. In Jang&rsquo;s case, this accomplishes the exact opposite &ndash; he&rsquo;s been absolutely horrendous with command (6.83 BB/9, are you serious?), and practically the only way to work through those issues is with repetition, something he clearly hasn&rsquo;t gotten in weeks. And now, in his first start back in the KBO bigs, he faces a team that&rsquo;s not only scorching hot but gets Roberto Ramos &ndash; their best hitter and one of the most ferocious bats in the league &ndash; back in the starting lineup. Ramos augments a lineup that&rsquo;s already making a strong push for top-three in the league, and against a guy with a 5.70 FIP and ghastly 14.3 BB% (fun fact &ndash; Jang has had an FIP below 4.50 exactly three times in a 14-year career), they&rsquo;re in line to absolutely mash. As noted the other night, Sports Info Solutions ranked LG as the team that hits the ball the hardest on average, and they have the absolute perfect matchup for that tonight. This is a patient team that will get on base in different ways, and once Jang starts walking hitters, he&rsquo;s going to be in serious trouble with a lineup that is projected to start six left-handed batters and will have a massive platoon advantage. I&rsquo;d be shocked to see him make it through more than four innings, and after that he&rsquo;ll likely be turning the game over to the bottom of Hanwha&rsquo;s bullpen, which may or may not (probably will) get massacred. This is a game that Hanwha has absolutely no business staying in, and LG has the ability to go for the jugular in the first few innings. They have given Hanwha no chance of hanging with them the last few nights (other than a strange, almost disaster in the ninth inning two nights ago), and with one of their top pitchers on the mound, I don&rsquo;t expect Hanwha to score more than one or two, if at all. On the other hand, I&rsquo;d be beyond shocked to see LG score anything less than five runs. This is an absolute dream matchup on the hitting side (and, as we&rsquo;ll get to, on the pitching side), and there&rsquo;s no reason the Twins shouldn&rsquo;t come out raking.

Twins:

SP: Tyler Wilson

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 2.92

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.20 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 40.2 IP, 38 H, 31 K, 13 BB

Wilson has made 7 starts this season, and five have been excellent, while two have been subpar. I&rsquo;m absolutely willing to excuse the first, as it followed overseas travel, a fourteen-day quarantine, and a matchup vs the Dinos. Let&rsquo;s throw that one out. The second bad outing came on May 31st via Kia in a game where three of the four ER Wilson gave up came on a bomb in the third inning. He was still hit decently hard overall, but recovered nicely to throw 6.1 solid innings against Kiwoom, and he put up a better appearance than his statline would suggest. He held the Heroes scoreless through six, but gave up two runs in the seventh, still a very good effort overall. Looking at Wilson&rsquo;s peripherals, he possesses a 3.95 FIP and a 2.88 BB/9, both of which rank above average and suggest positive regression even with taking the Dinos disaster into consideration. In his only start of the season vs Hanwha, I&rsquo;ll tell you what Wilson did &ndash; the easiest 6 scoreless innings of his KBO career, throwing just 81 pitches while mowing down Eagles hitters and exiting with a solid lead. The crazy thing is, that was against a Hanwha offense that was better than their current form. They&rsquo;re essentially starting 5-6 KBO minor leaguers, and Tyler Wilson is a former Major Leaguer who&rsquo;s dominated this league for three years &ndash; I&rsquo;ll roll with him, all day, every day. There&rsquo;s really not much more to say about this matchup, but the nice thing about playing LG here is that they have a fully rested bullpen following the blowout yesterday, and were able to pull starters pretty early so they should have fresh legs and motivation for a sweep under them. This game won&rsquo;t be close.

Game Plays (GIVEN OUT VIA DISCORD OR PERSONAL DM):

1: LG -1.5 (-165) 5U PLAY OF THE YEAR

2: LG 1H -1 (-130) 4U MAX

3: LG TT OV 6 (-110) 3U

4: Hanwha TT UN 3 (-115) 2U

5: LG 1st Inning ML (+185) .5U

&nbsp;

G2: Kiwoom Heroes (+115) VS Lotte Giants (-140) O/U 9

Heroes:

SP: Seung-ho Lee

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.48

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 6.09 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 34 IP, 37 H, 20 K, 16 BB

Other than Lee&rsquo;s extremely surprising start vs NC last week where he diced the Dinos to the tune of 6 IP / 4 H / 3 K / 0 ER, he&rsquo;s only recorded one quality start the rest of the year, all the way back in his debut against Hanwha (of course). If Lee&rsquo;s peripherals were any good, I might look at his start vs the Dinos as an indication that he&rsquo;s going to turn things around, but the opposite is true. His K% is extremely low at 13.3, whereas his BB/9 is incredibly high at 4.24, two things that both suggest he&rsquo;ll stay around a 6 ERA, supported by a measly 5.79 FIP. That start vs the Dinos is sort of confounding, but NC&rsquo;s top three hitters are all lefties, a platoon advantage for Lee that he used to work around the rest of the lineup. He won&rsquo;t have the same setup tonight, as Lotte starts seven right-handed batters, including four of their top five. Of the teams that Lee has faced, KT, Samsung, and SK present the most similar resemblance in terms of righty-heavy lineups, and Lee was shelled by the Wiz and the Lions, and was decent over 5 IP against the weaker SK. Lotte isn&rsquo;t the strongest-hitting team in the KBO, but they&rsquo;re better than the bottom-bottom teams, and I expect them to be able to put up at least 2-3 on Lee tonight, giving them a good chance to excel against a bullpen that is worn down after two tightly-contested games in a row. Lee has walked at least 2 batters in six out of seven starts, and I expect Lotte to be extremely patient tonight, knowing that they&rsquo;re not going to score on home runs or XBH alone. I don&rsquo;t necessarily see Lotte scoring more than 5 runs, but I can see them for sure getting 3-4 on the board, and that might just be all they need with their terrific ace, former Major Leaguer Dan Straily, on the mound.

Giants:

SP: Dan Straily

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: N/A (MLB)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 2.08 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 47.2 IP, 36 H, 50 K, 17 BB

After a bit of a bumpy start to his KBO career where he gave up 9 runs over his first 22 innings (3.68 ERA), Straily has emerged as one of the more dominant pitchers in the league, locking up Samsung, Doosan, KT, and LG consecutively to the tune of 2 ER in 26 IP (0.69 ERA, nice). All of these teams other than Samsung are better than Kiwoom, and if you&rsquo;ve followed me the last few weeks you know that I&rsquo;m a huge fade-Kiwoom guy against good pitching. I think they&rsquo;re overrated because they have a few power bats, but good luck against a guy who&rsquo;s top-10 in the KBO in soft contact % and has only given up two HRs the entire season (and none since May 20th). I have a ton of faith in him on the mound in this spot &ndash; Kiwoom&rsquo;s hitters should be weary after a couple long games, and I wouldn&rsquo;t be surprised to see a few starters rest since the series is already secured in the Heroes&rsquo; favor. Even if this isn&rsquo;t the case, I love the work Straily&rsquo;s done this year &ndash; he possesses a gorgeous 3.07 FIP and 26.2 K%, and his only weakness may be his command, though he hasn&rsquo;t walked more than 2 hitters in a game since May 26th, while command was really an issue before then. If he&rsquo;s turned a corner there, too, watch out. This is a guy that consistently runs it up to around 100 pitches, and is easily capable of pitching past there, as he showed in a dominant 107-pitch, 7-inning shutout performance vs KT where he struck out six and allowed just five hits. This start vs Kiwoom will actually be easier than any of his last three, where he has allowed exactly 2 ER over 20 IP, so I&rsquo;m all over Straily here to give a Lotte team searching for a win around 7 IP and 0-2 ER. This is enough to put them in a great position to win, which I think they&rsquo;ll ultimately do, though it will be tight down the stretch&hellip;

Game Plays:

1: Lotte 1H ML (-145) 3U

2: Kiwoom TT UN 4 (-115) 2U

3: UN 9 (-105) 2U

&nbsp;

G3: Kia Tigers (+135) VS NC Dinos (-165) O/U 8.5

Tigers:

SP: Drew Gagnon

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: N/A (in MLB)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.57 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 40.1 IP, 34 H, 45 K, 9 BB

Gagnon&rsquo;s last three starts may not look that great, but I think as much as anything, he&rsquo;s gotten pretty unlucky. His hard hit rate is one of the lowest in the league (ranking at 5, just behind opposing starter Chang-mo Koo) and he didn&rsquo;t allow a HR in any of his most recent starts, likewise only walking an average of 1.2 hitters/start. So, while it may appear that this is a guy the fan-favorite Dinos are going to tear apart, be careful. He&rsquo;s way better than the eye-test on recent stats says, and believe it or not, NC has struggled against good pitching. Gagnon holds an absolutely elite 2.54 FIP, which is supported by an outstanding 27.4 K% and terrific 2.01 BB/9. Essentially, while his last few starts may suggest that he&rsquo;s gotten pieced up and is due for a beating tonight, the analytics suggest there&rsquo;s been a ton of strung-together contact that&rsquo;s finding holes despite very few walks and XBH. Unsurprisingly, the Dinos are going to get a ton of action tonight, and I don&rsquo;t blame anyone betting on them &ndash; after all, they have Chang-mo Koo, potential KBO MVP, on the mound, and Kia&rsquo;s lineup isn&rsquo;t scary vs decent pitching. That being said, I think the price is too steep at -170, as I can easily see this coming down to a 1 or 2-run game that will end up being a competition between the NC and Kia bullpens, and if this is the case, I&rsquo;m siding with the Tigers 10 times out of 10. This points to the approach I&rsquo;m taking for this game &ndash; I do think the Dinos will score a few times in the first five innings (probably not more than 2-3), and I don&rsquo;t really expect Kia to add more than 1 in that time-frame. So, while I may not be in love with Dinos for the full game, I&rsquo;m a big fan of their 1H plays, as well as the first-half and full-game under (barring any bullpen disasters, this is probably a 4-3 kind of game). I expect Gagnon to be solid, but perhaps unspectacular, and I&rsquo;m looking for absolute excellence out of Koo. I&rsquo;ll explain why below.

Dinos:

SP: Chang-mo Koo (10/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.20

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 0.75 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 48 IP, 22 H, 52 K, 11 BB

Ironically, Koo&rsquo;s start vs Hanwha on June 6th was probably the worst start of his season. He allowed one run and struck out six. Welcome to the world of the KBO&rsquo;s best pitcher. Tonight, he gets a Kia team that I think is criminally overrated. That may seem odd since last night I hammered Kia&rsquo;s TT OV, but that was more of a play on a starter I saw as overvalued and a bullpen disaster waiting to happen (which it did). I love Koo in this spot for a number of reasons, but I&rsquo;ll begin with Kia&rsquo;s lineup. This is already not a particularly deep lineup, and two of their three best hitters are lefties, which neutralizes a ton of their power in the middle of the order. Furthermore, since the loss of their starting second baseman last week, Kia has struggled to put together any sort of sustained rallies against pitchers who have decent command and stuff, both of which Koo most definitely has. Other than the 2-3-4 hitters, I really don&rsquo;t fear Kia at all, and I think Koo will be able to use his platoon advantage to carve through the heart of the order and cruise through the rest. Essentially, I see this start as being entirely dependent on how he does vs these three hitters: if he limits Preston Tucker and the other two, there&rsquo;s not a chance Kia puts anything more than one or two runs up against him. If he struggles through the heart of the order, we might be seeing more of the NC bullpen than I&rsquo;d like. That being said, my money is on Koo, as it has been this entire year. NC isn&rsquo;t afraid to stretch him out, and it&rsquo;s not like they don&rsquo;t have a single good reliever &ndash; they just don&rsquo;t have that many. It cannot be understressed that NC winning this game is entirely dependent on Koo&rsquo;s efforts; if he gives them 7-8 solid IP and allows less than 2 runs, they&rsquo;re taking this game home. If he can only give six and gives up more than that, I have absolutely no faith in the bullpen. But there&rsquo;s a reason he&#39;s the best pitcher in the KBO &ndash; this guy can absolutely deal, and he&rsquo;ll bring his A-game tonight.

Game Plays:

1: NC 1H ML (-140) 3U

2: NC -1 (-140) 2U

3: UN 9.0 (BOUGHT DOWN FROM 8.5; -125) 2U

4: 1H UN 4.5 (-120) 1U

5: Kia TT UN 3.5 (-125) 1U &nbsp;

 This is a long writeup, so I&rsquo;ll save you the intro. Let&rsquo;s just say I&rsquo;m pumped.&nbsp;&nbsp;OVERALL RECORD: +81.98U (132-94-7) &ndash; $100 bettor up $8,198Record on 4U MAX Plays: 5-1-1 (+14.4U)Record on 3U Plays: 25-7-1 (+46.45U)Rec

JP&rsquo;s KBO Writeup &ndash; June 16 - 17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; twitter: @jpbattingprac

&nbsp;

<div>
Following last night&rsquo;s sequence of bullpen implosions, this slate lacks any kind of elite starting pitching and is fairly shrouded in uncertainty. That can be disconcerting, but means that there will be angles that some can find and others don&rsquo;t. There&rsquo;s some good pitching and some really bad pitching, and I&rsquo;m going to work through several of the games to discuss where I see things playing out tonight. I&rsquo;ll save some length on the intro and dive right in.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
</div>

OVERALL RECORD: +74.83U (125-89-6) &ndash; $100 bettor up $7,483

Record on 4U MAX Plays: 5-1 (+14.4U)

Record on 3U Plays: 24-7-1 (+43.45U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-7 (-11.37U)

Record on 2U Plays: 48-26-4 (+30.2U)

Record on 1U Plays: 37-33-1 (-2.50U)

<div>
Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or greater): 8-13 (+1.35U)
</div>

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

G1: Kiwoom Heroes (-215) VS Lotte Giants (+160) O/U 10

Heroes:

SP: Won-tae Choi

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.38

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 39 IP, 38 H, 26 K, 6 BB

Choi is an example of a KBO pitcher who&rsquo;s consistently solid, but rarely elite. He had a very good 2019 in the form of a 3.38 ERA backed up by a 3.23 FIP, but has dropped off a little bit this season, following a 4.38 ERA with a 4.52 FIP, though those two numbers are tainted by a terrible start vs Samsung in his last time out. His control is consistently excellent, and with a 1.38 BB/9, he&rsquo;s making teams earn absolutely everything. The last time he faced Lotte was back in late May, where he put forward an outstanding start to the tune of 6 IP / 5 H / 1 ER. Crazily enough, he hasn&rsquo;t walked a single batter since May 19th vs SK, which points to how historically good his command has been overall. That being said, he&rsquo;s struggled to limit power in his last few outings, giving up 5 HR over the past 18 IP, a concerningly high rate, though that&rsquo;s probably due for serious positive regression, since he allowed a stunningly low 0.29 HR/9 last season. Choi is in a perfect spot here to bounce back and limit Lotte offensively, but Choi hasn&rsquo;t had a scoreless outing the entire season, so I could see them putting a few on the board by the time Choi leaves, likely around the seventh inning. They won&rsquo;t score a ton of runs, and Kiwoom has a very solid bullpen, but Kiwoom -215 seems way steep for this kind of game. Let&rsquo;s check out the other side.

Giants:

SP: Jun-won Seo

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 5.47

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.72 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 38.2 IP, 41 H, 18 K, 12 BB

While Seo&rsquo;s season has included a few bumps at the beginning of the season, it looks like he&rsquo;s turned a serious corner in his path as a KBO starter. Since a two-outing stretch where he was rocked by Doosan and Kia (16 H / 12 ER in 9 IP), He&rsquo;s allowed a combined 4 ER over his subsequent 24.2 IP, including starts vs Doosan, KT, and Kiwoom, three of the better-hitting teams in the league. The 19-year-old is confident in his stuff and Lotte has a ton of faith in him, as he picked up a $300,000 signing bonus in the 2019 regional draft, ranking as one of the higher monetary amounts given to any prospect. His start against Kiwoom was perhaps his best of the season, as he absolutely stifled the Eagles for just three hits over 6.2 scoreless IP, striking out four and walking just one. Seo has had an unbelievably difficult stretch of teams to face, as he&rsquo;s seen Doosan and KT twice, Kia once, and he&rsquo;ll see Kiwoom for the second time tonight; in fact, the only squad he&rsquo;s faced outside the top-five in offense was Hanwha, who he locked down for five scoreless innings. Though Lotte has been fairly tight on a 90-pitch restriction for Seo, unsurprising as they attempt to preserve the young righty&rsquo;s arm, they relaxed that to 101 in his dominant outing vs the Heroes three weeks ago. Pitching on the road doesn&rsquo;t seem to bother Seo much, as other than that disastrous outing vs Kia, he&rsquo;s stifled KT and Doosan to just a combined 1 ER over 12 IP. Perhaps if there was a raucous crowd I&rsquo;d be scared off by the environment, but without fans or artificial crowd noise, home-field advantage just isn&rsquo;t the same. There are a lot of positives here, it&rsquo;s important to recognize a few concerning aspects, too: his command can be at times erratic, he doesn&rsquo;t strike out many hitters, and he can at times be susceptible to the long ball (all contributing to a FIP of 5.82, obviously far worse than his ERA). That being said, it is possible that those concerns are inflated by small sample size. He&rsquo;s walked four batters in two of his seven starts, but no more than one in any of the others; he&rsquo;s had a start of 2 HRs and a start of 3 HRs, but allowed just one total the rest of the season, and even in the start where he gave up two long-balls he still put up 6 IP and 3 ER, which isn&rsquo;t a bad start at all. So, with that all being said, my conclusion on Seo is that he really can pitch, and tonight&rsquo;s game will be a tight pitcher&rsquo;s duel, rather than the easy win Kiwoom -215 suggests. The lines in this game demonstrate very clearly that sportsbooks don&rsquo;t trust Seo, and think Kiwoom will win this in a blowout. Not only do I disagree with that assessment of Seo, I think Kiwoom is overrated as a hitting team, and our young righty will hang in there very nicely. Honestly, the only reason this game isn&rsquo;t a 4U max banger is that these bullpens are so unpredictable, but Lotte and Kiwoom have two of the better pens available in the league, so at some you have to roll with a play you like and trust them.

Game Plays:

1: UN 10 (-105) 2U

2: 1H UN 5.5 (-110) 2U

3: Lotte TT UN 4 (-120) 2U

4: Kiwoom TT UN 6 (-120) 2U

5: Lotte +1.5 (+100) 1U

6: Lotte ML (+160) .5U

&nbsp;

G2: SK Wyverns (-120) VS KT Wiz (+100) O/U 10.5

Wyverns:

SP: Tae-hoon Kim

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.88

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.91 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 33 IP, 22 H, 19 K, 20 BB

Kim has always had severe command issues, but in the past compensated for that with a strong strikeout rate (above 23% each of the last two years). This season, he&rsquo;s trended in the exact opposite direction, getting worse with his command (a horrifying 5.45 BB/9) and striking out fewer hitters (down to K% at 13.8%). The only thing keeping him afloat is a .213 BABIP, which is laughably low for someone who doesn&rsquo;t have great stuff and isn&rsquo;t even in the top-10 in the KBO in soft-contact %. As his FIP of 5.30 would suggest, his counting stats extremely likely to get much worse, and we&rsquo;ve already seen that regression beginning to take place, as he struggled through five really, really ugly innings against LG in his last start, and was blown up by NC in the one before that. Now, he gets a KT team that is finally at full-hitting strength, which I believe makes them a top-three hitting team in the KBO (after NC/Doosan, though an argument could certainly be made that LG could claim the three spot). I love the Wiz to absolutely explode in this spot &ndash; if you remember a few weeks ago, KT went through a torrid stretch where they destroyed a sequence of pitchers with command issues, and this matchup with Kim brings back those memories. In his last two starts, Kim has given up 8 hits, 10 ER, and 9 BB, striking out just 3 in the process (he also hit 2 in that stretch). He&rsquo;s clearly struggling with something command-related, and that kind of issue isn&rsquo;t one that just suddenly solves itself in the middle of the season, especially against one of the best teams in the league. Having used four relievers last night, SK is in a terrible position to follow Kim out of the pen, so they might be forced to hang him out there to dry, which would be terrific for KT especially since his command should falter further down the stretch. Whether the Wiz get four rotations through the order against Kim, or see some lower-end arms out of the pen, this is a spot they should thrive in.

Wiz:

SP: Byung-wook Jo

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 2.45 (sample size composed of 7.1 IP in the Futures League)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats KBO: 4.50 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 2 IP, 4 H, 0 K, 0 BB

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats Futures League: 6.17 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 11 H, 9 K, 4 BB

Jo hasn&rsquo;t thrown more than 13 innings in a season since 2018 &ndash; when he threw 16.2 &ndash; and has looked absolutely awful this season both in the Futures League and the KBO. We&rsquo;ll start with some analysis of his Futures League appearances. He started three games, and they were all disasters. He allowed 8 ER in 10 IP, walking a hitter in every start and averaging more than hit per inning. Following that failed experiment, he was moved to the bullpen and faced just 6 hitters from May 27th to June 4th, when it appears he may have been brought to the KBO level to help fill out the back end of a horrendous pitching staff. His only appearance since then came in a 2-inning stint on June 10th, when he was the last KT pitcher to appear in a 10-0 blowout loss. Jo looked like his extremely hittable self in that game, allowing 4 hits and 1 ER to Kia&rsquo;s backups over 2 IP. Now, whether out of pure desperation, delusional faith, or some kind of belief in a miracle, he&rsquo;s getting the start tonight against SK. I&rsquo;m guessing it&rsquo;s neither of the latter two, and I had heard some other names being tossed around as KT&rsquo;s potential starter tonight (including a lefty who has neither pitched in the KBO since 2019 nor appeared in a Futures League game this season), so I wouldn&rsquo;t be shocked to see him used as a sort of opener for a longer bullpen game. That being said, even that strategy sounds pretty horrible to me; like SK, KT used four relievers in a close game, meaning they probably already burned their &ldquo;high-end&rdquo; arms, leaving the rest of the worst bullpen in the KBO to figure this game out. I&rsquo;m extremely hopeful they either ride with Jo and watch him get shellacked or follow him with a lefty out of the pen (SK has 8 right-handed batters starting, so the platoon advantage on the hitting side is dreamy). Honestly, I&rsquo;m not sure it matters what they do. They&rsquo;ve given every pitcher in that bullpen an opportunity this season, and no one has even resembled competence. This is a game that can, and should, get extremely ugly, take four hours to complete, and be a joy for the over.

Game Plays:

1: OV 10 (-130; BOUGHT DOWN FROM 10.5) 4U MAX

2: KT TT OV 5 (-120) 3U

3: SK TT OV 5 (-110) 2U

4: 1H OV 6 (-105) 1U

&nbsp;

One more OFFICIAL play (not doing a full writeup but I&rsquo;ve done the research):

1: Kia TT OV 4 (-105) 2U

&nbsp;

Here are a few additional LEANS (NOT OFFICIAL) for those so inclined to follow; they&rsquo;re approximately the value of 1U plays, but I don&rsquo;t want to go too hard on this slate tonight. Feel free to tail, fade, ignore, follow, etc &ndash; up to you!

&nbsp;

1: Samsung / Doosan 1H UN 5.5 (-120)

2: Doosan TT UN 5.5 (-110) 

3: Kia +2 (-120)

 JP&rsquo;s KBO Writeup &ndash; June 16 - 17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&n

JP's KBO June 16 - 17 Writeup

June 15th &ndash; 16th&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Twitter: @jpbattingprac

JP&rsquo;s KBO Notes &ndash; Day 23 (Overall Record: 119-84-6, +74.23U)

Welcome to Day 23 of KBO Writeups! We saw a few crazy things go down on the Sunday slate &ndash; first, Hanwha finally won a game, walking off vs Doosan in the 9th inning of a doubleheader. Then, Hanwha won again, coming from out of nowhere to secure their first series win in a looooong time. However, let&rsquo;s take these wins with a grain of salt &ndash; they were messy bullpen games, and given Doosan&rsquo;s horrendous pen, it&rsquo;s not all that surprising that Hanwha was able to hang tight in game one. If you take a look at the game two box score, you&rsquo;ll see that most of the Bears in the starting lineup were backups vs Hanwha&rsquo;s ace, hence the low-scoring affair. All of this is to say I&rsquo;m extremely unsold on the Eagles, and think that sooner rather than later they&rsquo;ll probably have another losing streak going. More on that to come.

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;The other game I bet on Sunday involved the Dinos and Heroes, a game in which I took the position of game over and both teams totals over. I came close to sweeping it, as the 9-5 final covered over 12 and NC TT OV 6, coming just short of securing Kiwoom&rsquo;s TT OV 5.5. NC&rsquo;s Kim escaped trouble a few times in his KBO debut, ending with a statline of: 4.1 IP / 4 H / 3 BB / 3 ER / 5 K. Nothing terrible, but not exceptional either. Kiwoom left their starter in for just 2.2 innings, creating an unusual bullpen affair for the final 6 innings of the game. It wasn&rsquo;t the prettiest way to end the week, but NC did avoid getting swept and losing three straight games for the first time this season. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

<div>
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Moving into tonight&rsquo;s slate, there&rsquo;s a massive disparity between the good and bad pitchers, and for the most part, the games are lined up where the aces face aces, which should make for some really good and really bad baseball. The highest end of the slate includes Drew Rucinski, Eric Jokisch, and Aaron Brooks, three guys that have been terrific all season, but &ndash; especially in the cases of Rucinski and Brooks &ndash; turned it into high gear lately with quality starts against some of the best offenses in the KBO. Oddly enough, the only start of Jokisch&rsquo;s season where he allowed more than 2 ER was two weeks ago against Hanwha. He recovered from that, however, and put another QS on the board last week against a struggling Samsung team, allowing just 1 ER over 6 IP. He has the most favorable matchup of the elite crew, facing a Lotte team that&rsquo;s taken advantage of bad pitching recently but isn&rsquo;t anywhere near an offensive powerhouse. Without further ado, let&rsquo;s dive in.
</div>

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

OVERALL RECORD: +74.23U (119-84-6) &ndash; $100 bettor up $7,423

Record on 4U MAX Plays: 5-1 (+14.4U)

Record on 3U Plays: 22-7-1 (+37.45U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-6 (-8.37U)

Record on 2U Plays: 47-24-4 (+33.9U)

Record on 1U Plays: 35-32-1 (-3.75U)

<div>
Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or greater): 7-12 (+0.8U)
</div>

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

G1: Kia Tigers (+125) VS NC Dinos (-155) O/U 9.5

Tigers:

SP: Aaron Brooks

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 5.65 (MLB)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 2.76 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 42.1 IP, 43 H, 34 K, 7 BB

Brooks has looked absolutely masterful this year, commanding a top-10 spot on the KBO leaderboard in ERA (2.76) and top-5 in FIP (3.15). He was enjoying perhaps his best start of the season last week vs a strong KT team before rain cut the game short after five innings, allowing just three hits and no runs before the cancellation. Brooks faces arguably his toughest challenge of the season tonight against NC, a team that was thriving offensively before a slower series vs Kiwoom. NC put up a combined 7 runs over the first two games of that series before putting up 9 in game three, which should be noted came against a low-end starter making his third career appearance in the KBO. I think the opinion of the Dinos became slightly inflated over the last few weeks, as pre-Kiwoom they faced in order the SK, Hanwha, and Doosan who rank 6th, 8th, and 10th in team ERA, respectively. The Dinos were particularly explosive against a Hanwha team currently in complete disarray, so while I do think NC is certainly legit, I don&rsquo;t see them as a team that is going to score 6+ runs every day. In fact, today is probably a really good test for both sides. Brooks is the first solid arm they&rsquo;ve seen in a while, and the Dinos may be the best team he&rsquo;s seen this year, so what we see here should give us an indication of where the respective sides are. Brooks isn&rsquo;t the most electric pitcher in the league, but his command is terrific (1.49 BB/9) and he is outstanding at limiting XBH (just 7 in 42.1 innings). I&rsquo;m really encouraged by the consistency Brooks has demonstrated &ndash; he&rsquo;s only allowed more than 2 ER in a start twice the entire season (3 against SK, 4 against Doosan), and has lasted 6+ innings in four out of seven starts. With the top arms in the bullpen well-rested, I think Kia will plan on sending Brooks out for six and using a few top arms to finish the job in what should be a close game.

Dinos:

SP: Drew Rucinski

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.05

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 2.23 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 44.1 IP, 39 H, 41 K, 11 BB

Looking through their respective statlines, it&rsquo;s pretty easy to draw comparisons between Rucinski and Brooks. They both prioritize command and soft contact (Rucinski has allowed just 6 XBH the entire season), and have similar resumes in terms of teams pitched against. Rucinski&rsquo;s FIP is significantly higher, sitting at 3.71, but it was 3.92 last year in a consistently good campaign, and at some point, you have to just wonder if he&rsquo;s a guy who will always have a higher FIP than ERA. Rucinski looked terrific vs Doosan in his last start, and was unfortunate that two of the only three hits he allowed were home runs. Doosan is a far better offensive team than Kia, and has more power up and down the order, so if he manages to limit contact to the same degree as he did in that game, Kia&rsquo;s lineup isn&rsquo;t deep enough to compete 1-9. That&rsquo;s been one of my consistent points about Kia this season: they just don&rsquo;t have nearly enough potential threats in the lineup, so starters that can beat the top of the order twice and don&rsquo;t walk hitters near the bottom are almost a lock to throw 5+ good innings, something I think we can count on Rucinski for. Rucinski has looked really solid over his last five starts &ndash; allowing just 6 ER over his last 33 IP &ndash; and while that did come against some lower competition in the form of SK twice, Hanwha, and Samsung, I think his most recent appearance vs Doosan shows that he&rsquo;s for real. Like Kia, NC has a few relievers that they can turn to at the end of games, and since they&rsquo;ll all be rested, I think a game flow of Rucinski for 6ish followed by a few different arms for one inning each (depending on matchups) is a very realistic way this game can, and should, go.

Game Plays:

1: UN 9.5 (-120) 2.5U

2: Kia TT UN 4 (-125) 1U

3: NC TT UN 5.5 (-130) 1U

&nbsp;

G2: Hanwha Eagles (+160) VS LG Twins (-215) O/U 10

Eagles:

SP: Min-jae Jang

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 5.43

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 7.59 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 21.1 IP, 36 H, 14 K, 3 BB

After a halfway decent start to the season, Jang has fallen off the table, getting blasted over his last three starts for a statline of 9.1 IP / 14 ER / 24 H / 5 K / 1 BB, composed of outings against KT, LG, and Lotte. It&rsquo;s unclear what the catalyst for his precipitous dropoff was, but it was possibly just natural regression, given that he has never had a full-season ERA under 4.41 (that was back in 2010). His FIP is a not-so-horrendous 4.65, but without batted ball data, it&rsquo;s hard to know whether all these hits he&rsquo;s given up were the result of hard contact or lucky bounces, two crucial aspects of evaluating a pitcher. That being said, there are a few reasons why I&rsquo;m not giving Jang the benefit of the doubt tonight. First, I&rsquo;m inclined to believe he&rsquo;s allowing seriously hard contact, given that he&rsquo;s given up 13 XBH in just over 21 IP, an atrocious line that suggests even if hitters are getting lucky and finding holes, they&rsquo;re pretty well-deserved. Secondly, Jang faces the team that hits the ball the hardest on average, as approximately 21.7% of Twins ABs result in a hard-hit ball, according to Sports Info Solutions. Perhaps this explains why in Jang&rsquo;s previous outing vs the Twins, he was rocked for 8 hits, 6 ER, and 2 HRs over just 3 IP. I&rsquo;m really not inclined to think that tonight&rsquo;s result is going to be much different, and if Hanwha plays the bullpen game, I don&rsquo;t feel any more confident about them, considering they have the 3rd-worst bullpen by ERA in the league. LG should pounce early and often, and with a massive platoon advantage over Jang, I wouldn&rsquo;t be surprised to see them put up 4-5 in the early going.

&nbsp;Twins:

SP: Chan-heon Jung

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 1.64 (as a reliever)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.52 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 23 IP, 22 H, 25 K, 6 BB

Though he has been relatively sparingly used and had to face two of the best offenses in the KBO, Jung has been pretty effective in his four starts this season, including in one against this Eagles team earlier in the season (though that roster looks completely different than the one he&rsquo;ll face today). LG has consistently given him about 9 days in between starts &ndash; likely due to this being the first time in his career that he&rsquo;s a starter, rather than reliever &ndash; and he&rsquo;ll be coming off 11 days of rest for this one. His previous start &ndash; against Samsung &ndash; was one of the best starts for any pitcher this season, as he put up seven dominant shutout innings and struck out 11, giving up just three hits. Though he hasn&rsquo;t had many appearances, the Twins aren&rsquo;t afraid to use him for extended starts, as he&rsquo;s topped 90 pitches twice (including an 107-pitch outing vs Kiwoom). Jung&rsquo;s peripherals are encouraging also &ndash; he is rocking a 3.88 FIP that ranks in the upper fraction of the KBO, and his K% is through the roof at 27.2. This should put him in a great position against Hanwha, who (other than a recent 6-run output vs Doosan&rsquo;s back-end relievers) can&rsquo;t really hit for power or average, and certainly won&rsquo;t be able to keep up with LG if they do their job and score early. This is a great opportunity for Jung to secure his place in the rotation, whether that&rsquo;s once a week or once every 10 days, and a good outing would go a long way for both the Twins and his personal benefit. Furthermore, LG will have a fully rested bullpen that should be able to stack with Jung and lock the game down. They rank first in the KBO in bullpen ERA (4.43), and I could see this game being Jung for six, followed by three relievers to shut it down. Though expecting Jung to limit Hanwha to nothing would be unfair, I do think he&rsquo;ll have an extremely productive start and easily give his team a chance to jump out and take a permanent lead.

Game Plays: 

1: LG -1.5 (-140) 3U

2: LG 1H -1 (-130) 3U

3: LG TT OV 6 (-115) 2U

4: OV 10 (-120) 1U

5: LG 1st Inning ML (+210) .5U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G3: Kiwoom Heroes (-280) VS Lotte Giants (+200) O/U 9.5

Heroes:

SP: Eric Jokisch

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.13

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 1.49 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 42.1 IP, 34 H, 33 K, 7 BB

Jokisch&rsquo;s last time facing Lotte is a very good example of the pitcher he can consistently be, with room for an even higher ceiling. In that outing, he threw 102 pitches over 6 innings, allowing 6 hits, 2 ER, and striking out 4. That game resulted in a 12-4 Heroes victory, and Jokisch did exactly what he needed to: shut the Giants down for the first three innings while the Heroes took a 4-0 lead, then proceeded to limit the damage over the next three frames and exit with a 7-2 lead, which would get even more skewed against a bad Lotte bullpen. One of the really nice things about Jokisch is that he&rsquo;s good for 6+ and less than 3 ER pretty much every start, and five of his seven starts have resulted in 1 ER or fewer. Lotte looked a little more potent offensively in their previous two series (vs Hanwha and LG), but they tacked on a ton of damage vs a tired bullpen that had to endure a doubleheader amidst five straight days of games. That will not be the case in this game, where they&rsquo;ll have to face whatever arms the Heroes choose to throw out from a decent bullpen ranking third in the KBO in ERA. Like most of these pens, the bottom-end arms are practically a travesty, but their higher-end guys are way better than just serviceable, and that&rsquo;s who we should see today (as long as Kiwoom is in the lead, or the game is close; I expect it to be the former). Jokisch&rsquo;s terrific ERA is supported by an equally dynamic 2.81 FIP, and while he doesn&rsquo;t strike out a ton of batters, he limits hard contact, shown by the fact that he ranks first in the KBO in hard hit rate (11.3%). This plays perfectly against a Lotte team that struggles to hit for power, and will have to rely on stringing long innings together to hurt Jokisch, who excels at preventing that. Kiwoom is just coming off a big-time series win vs NC, and they&rsquo;ll be hungry to take game one at home here.

Giants:

SP: Kyung-eun Noh

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.08

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 5.45 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 33 IP, 37 H, 20 K, 8 BB

Noh&rsquo;s statline doesn&rsquo;t look great, but if you take out his two absolutely dominant starts vs a Hanwha team that barely qualifies as a KBO-level organization (lol), you get the following:

20 IP / 18 ER / 24 H / 11 K / 8 BB, &ldquo;good&rdquo; for an 8.10 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. This is where Noh is at the latter stages of his career, and he didn&rsquo;t even pitch in 2019, preceding that with a stretch of seasons of ERAs between 4.08 and 11.66. I actually bet on Noh in his last start vs the Eagles, where he threw 7 innings of one-run ball, but again, we&rsquo;re talking about a team composed mostly of KBO Minor Leaguers, rather than one of the better hitting teams in the KBO. Kiwoom can be inconsistent, and they don&rsquo;t hit great pitching that well, but one thing they will do is hit Noh, who they knocked around for 5 H / 4 ER over 4 IP in late May. Lotte has a pretty middling bullpen (5.05 ERA), and if Kiwoom takes an early lead, they may just mail it in against Jokisch and save up for tomorrow night. This is a game contingent on the Heroes offense, rather than pitching staff. Jokisch will limit Lotte to three runs or less, so Kiwoom needs to step up and contribute at the plate and put this game out of reach early. If the Heroes tack on a few runs in the early innings, they can easily run away with it. Against Noh and the Giants last time out, they put up 5 by the fifth inning, but a disastrous start by Jake Brigham cost them the game. That won&rsquo;t be the case in this outing, as a fresh bullpen and elite starter provide enough momentum on their own.

Game Plays:

1: Kiwoom -1.5 (-140) 2U

2: Kiwoom 1H -1 (-145) 2U

3: Kiwoom 1st Inning ML (+190) .5U

 June 15th &ndash; 16th&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp

JP's KBO June 15 - 16 Writeup

NOTE - THESE GAMES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED, BUT I WANTED TO PUBLISH THE WRITEUP TO GIVE A RETROSPECTIVE LOOK AT PICS. NOTE THAT THESE PICKS ARE NOT (REPEAT, NOT) FOR TONIGHT&#39;S GAMES.&nbsp;

&nbsp;

June 13th &ndash; 14th &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Twitter: @jpbattingprac

JP&rsquo;s KBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 22 (Overall Record: 117-80-6, +77.03U)

Welcome to the &ldquo;new&rdquo; KBO writeup format!! Rather than include my full detailed record and jump into picks right off the bat, I decided to switch up the approach at the beginning. I do this writing entirely on my own and have (to a reasonable point) autonomy over what I publish, so I&rsquo;m taking feedback, trying some new things out, and working to keep professionalizing my writeups. My initial thought is that one thing that could be fun is to quickly recap the previous night game-by-game and discuss the bets I made and their results, and then move into a brief discussion of the current night&rsquo;s slate before diving into specific analysis, and maybe try and share a relevant KBO/MLB/general baseball anecdote as well. So, let&rsquo;s get started!

Last night&rsquo;s Doosan &ndash; Hanwha game was, in a word, bizarre. I saw the forecast included a high chance of rain around gametime, but was hoping that the weather might actually have a positive impact on our plays. First, Hanwha&rsquo;s Seung-ju Han was making his KBO debut &ndash; whereas Doosan&rsquo;s Hui-kwan Yu is in his 10th-ish season &ndash; so I figured the combination of bad weather, callup nerves, and pitching against a terrific team could significantly rattle Han. I played Bears 1st Inning ML along with a couple other Bears plays with this in mind, expecting them to come out hot. That&rsquo;s exactly what happened, as Doosan&rsquo;s first five runners reached base, and before long the Bears held a 1-0 lead with the bases loaded and no outs. Unfortunately, an untimely strikeout limited the Bears to &ldquo;just&rdquo; two runs and an early 2-0 lead. As if penance for the Bears not taking advantage of their early situation, a Hanwha bomb tied the game in B1, throwing us a terrible beat and miss on the first bet of the day, fortunately only 0.5U. After a little back-and-forth action, Doosan took a 4-3 lead in the 2nd, but storms blew in and caused a long delay, which led to Hanwha removing Han from the game. Ultimately, the writing was on the wall, as only one more inning went by before umpires postponed the game. The bet cancellations were frustrating, particularly since Doosan TT OV 7 was more than halfway there by the third inning and the offense was clicking on all cylinders, but it&rsquo;s hard to compete with Mother Nature.

The SK &ndash; Kia game was perhaps the least sweaty under of the season. I loved both starters going in, writing the following about SK&rsquo;s Seung-won Moon: &ldquo;the Tigers just don&rsquo;t have a deep lineup&hellip; so if Moon can battle his way through the top of the order twice, he&rsquo;s in really good shape, particularly for the first five innings.&rdquo; This came to fruition in full, as Moon stifled Kia to just a run over the first half, allowing only a single hit to Kia&rsquo;s 1-5 hitters combined over this span. On the other side of the ball, Kia&rsquo;s Ki-young Im dominated. Before the game, I commented: &ldquo;SK doesn&rsquo;t hit for much power or average, so the way they score runs is by taking advantage of defective command&hellip; thus, Im is an outstanding candidate for facing them, since he&rsquo;ll make the Wyverns earn absolutely everything.&rdquo; He lived up to the billing, allowing just four baserunners and no runs over six innings of work, striking out six. Neither side topped six hits, and the staffs combined for a 19:4 K:BB ratio. All three bets &ndash; 1H UN 5.5, UN 10, and SK TT UN 4.5 &ndash; hit with ease in a 2-1 Kia victory.

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Around the KBO, not much surprised me other than Kiwoom&rsquo;s massive 18-5 victory over NC, taking a 2-0 lead in that series. Despite a massive pitching disadvantage in game one, they were able to win in extras, and built on that momentum with this victory. More on that series later. Tonight&rsquo;s slate is a series of pretty brutal pitching. There&rsquo;s not one arm from a single team who I love, and some of these pitchers are downright awful. NC &ndash; Kiwoom may be particularly bad, as both teams are starting minor leaguers and the bullpens are completely drained after a series composed first of an extra-inning game then one where 23 runs were scored. With a day off tomorrow, both teams will be pushing hard to finish the series strong. NC hasn&rsquo;t lost three games in a row all year, and both sides will want to finish the weekend with a statement victory. Without further ado, here&rsquo;s my overall record (subdivided by unit size). Let&rsquo;s get going on tonight&rsquo;s plays.

&nbsp;

OVERALL RECORD: +77.03U (117-80-6) &ndash; $100 bettor up $7,703

Record on 4U MAX Plays: 4-1 (+10.4U)

Record on 3U Plays: 21-6-1 (+37.75U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-6 (-8.37U)

Record on 2U Plays: 47-22-4 (+38.5U)

Record on 1U Plays: 35-31-1 (-2.05U)

Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or greater): 7-12 (+0.8U)

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G1: NC Dinos (-150) VS Kiwoom Heroes (+125) O/U 12

Dinos:

SP: Jin-ho Kim (1/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: N/A, was in high school

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 6.35 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 10 H, 8 K, 10 BB (in KBO Futures League)

Kim reminds me a lot of Hanwha&rsquo;s starter last night, a fellow 2019 2nd-round pick who had struggled somewhat in the Futures League and was making his debut. That pitcher got rocked &ndash; giving up 3 ER in 2 IP before getting yanked after a weather delay &ndash; and while Kiwoom isn&rsquo;t the same caliber offensive team as Doosan is, they put 18 runs on the board last night, and have some legit power when they get going. This is about as good a matchup the Heroes can ask for: while Kim has looked better as of late, including 10 straight scoreless innings over two starts, his record is littered with inconsistency and worrying signs. Let&rsquo;s go through some in order. He&rsquo;s rocking a heinous 7.94 BB/9, has hit a batter in every appearance this season, his K% is a putrid 14.5, and at one point he gave up 7 ER in one inning to a team that&rsquo;s hit 11 HR the entire season. If I were able to guess, Kim&rsquo;s FIP would be even lower than his already-awful 6.35 ERA. ALSO, I&rsquo;LL REMIND YOU THAT ALL OF THIS IS IN THE FUTURES LEAGUE. This is a textbook panic-debut, and having to face one of the better offenses in the KBO without any support from an exhausted bullpen is not exactly a recipe for a successful debut. Even Kim&rsquo;s best Futures League appearances have consisted of well over a baserunner per inning, so if he&rsquo;s struggling to maintain control of these games, he&rsquo;s in for a shock at the &lsquo;big-league&rsquo; level. Kiwoom is going to come out hard and early, and with NC&rsquo;s bullpen as run down as it is, he may be stuck in the game for 5-6 innings and just endure a beating. Kiwoom has no excuse to come out and perform here with the opportunity to become the first team to sweep the Dinos this season and make up significant ground in the KBO standings.

DINOS HITTING:

Heroes:

SP: Young-gun Jo (2.5/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA KBO: 81.00 (0.1 IP)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA Futures League: 5.60

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats KBO: 4.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 9 IP, 10 H, 4 K, 5 BB

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats Futures League: 1.42 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 19 IP, 16 H, 23 K, 4 BB

At least from the Minor League level, Jo looks like a completely new pitcher this season. He was awful last year wherever he threw, giving up 3 ER in just 0.1 IP in the KBO and looking like an overmatched high schooler in the Futures League. This year, however, he stepped up and came out firing, fully earning a promotion to the KBO after starting the 2020 season 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in the Futures League. That being said, Jo is becoming an interesting case study in how solid Futures League pitchers translate to the KBO. So far, the results are pretty negative. His two starts couldn&rsquo;t have been easier matchups &ndash; Hanwha and Samsung &ndash; and he really hasn&rsquo;t looked great, giving up 10 hits and 4 walks in 8 IP, striking out just 4. He features an FIP of 5.78 and a LOB% of 80.9 (LOB = left on base; for context, this is shockingly high especially considering he hardly strikes anyone out), suggesting that regression is on its way. This on its own is enough for me to stay away from Jo, but considering the fact that he&rsquo;s pitched against the two worst-hitting teams in the KBO and now has to face the best, it swings the needle from a &lsquo;pass&rsquo; to a &lsquo;hammer the other side.&rsquo; In the same way that Kiwoom desperately wants to sweep NC, the Dinos won&rsquo;t want to lose tonight, considering they have gone the entire season without losing three games in a row, an extremely impressive feat that will carry weight in the locker room. Furthermore, since both offenses should be rocking, it should be exciting and engaging enough to keep the likely worn-down sides fighting hard. On a hunch, I calculated the average number of runs per game for each day of the week, and unsurprisingly, the Saturday night/Sunday morning slate topped the pack. This is when you see bullpens fall apart, starters make emergency debuts, and teams try to end the weeks/respective series on a positive note. I expect this game to fully follow that trend, and potentially see 15+ runs scored.

KIWOOM HITTING:

Game Plays:

1: OV 12 (-120) 4U MAX

2: Kiwoom TT OV 5.5 (-110) 3U

3: NC TT OV 6 (-130) 3U

4: 1st Inning OV 0.5 (-170) 1U

&nbsp;

G2: Hanwha Eagles (+200) VS Doosan Bears (-275) O/U 10.5

Eagles:

SP: Warwick Saupold

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.51

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.11 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 46 IP, 55 H, 24 K, 10 BB

To put it plainly, I think Warwick Saupold is an extremely average KBO pitcher. He put up solid numbers last year &ndash; that 3.51 ERA was supported by a 3.47 WHIP &ndash; but at some point, when you&rsquo;re allowing well more than a hit per inning and not doing much in the strikeout department, you just are going to get hit hard by good teams. Saupold&rsquo;s stats were aided significantly by an opening day complete-game, 2-hit shutout vs SK &ndash; since then, he&rsquo;s allowed no less than 5 H / 2 ER in a start, including the following statline over his last three appearances (vs LG, Kiwoom, and Lotte): 18 IP / 14 ER / 34 H / 9 K / 4 BB. None of these outings have featured less than 9 hits, and Lotte just put up 7 against him over 5 IP. Saupold&rsquo;s longevity is typically something that people regard as a positive for him, but in this game, I&rsquo;ll take the contrarian view and see it as a positive for Doosan. Here&rsquo;s why: Hanwha has a couple decent lefties in the pen, but they can&rsquo;t get on the field if the Eagles are busy leaving Saupold (and his platoon disadvantage vs six Doosan hitters) out there to get rocked for 5+ innings. Unless he somehow finds the BABIP lucky charm and manages to induce batted ball out after batted ball out, I&rsquo;m not particularly optimistic that he gets through the first half of the game without allowing 4+ runs. 

HANWHA HITTING: 10th in average, runs, and OPS. But they hit 2 HR yesterday!

Bears:

SP: TBD

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA:

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats:

Bears starter has not yet been announced &ndash; the most likely playout is a full bullpen game, which is extremely concerning at this point in the week, when every serviceable arm has already pitched at least two times. I will keep this updated as the night goes. 

Game Plays:

1: Bears TT OV 6.5 (-110) 2U

2: 1H OV 5.5 (-125) 1U

&nbsp;

 NOTE - THESE GAMES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED, BUT I WANTED TO PUBLISH THE WRITEUP TO GIVE A RETROSPECTIVE LOOK AT PICS. NOTE THAT THESE PICKS ARE NOT (REPEAT, NOT) FOR TONIGHT&#39;S GAMES.&nbsp;&nbsp;June 13th &ndash; 14th &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

JP's KBO June 13 - 14 Writeup

June 12th &ndash; 13th

KBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 21

OVERALL RECORD: +70.53U (114-79-6) &ndash; $100 bettor up $7,053

Record on 4U MAX Plays: 4-1 (+10.4U)

Record on 3U Plays: 20-6-1 (+34.75U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-6 (-8.37U)

Record on 2U Plays: 45-22-4 (+34.5U)

Record on 1U Plays: 35-31-1 (-2.05U)

Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or greater): 7-11 (+1.3U)

&nbsp;

Before I get going with my picks for the day, I want to welcome everyone to the three-week mark! Since I started this writeup, I&rsquo;ve already come a pretty long way. It started with me creating a Word document, printing it, and taking pictures and posting on Twitter, and after a great start and some good conversations, I was noticed by the founder of Bet Karma and hired to write for the company. They&rsquo;ve been extremely supportive and I would highly recommend checking out their Discord &ndash; it has different groups for every sport, including&nbsp;a great collection of MLB/KBO fans, and in addition to normal chatter, I provide even more background for all my picks, along with some live suggestions from time to time. I would love to continue this successful run &ndash; adding 70.53U without making a single bet larger than 4U is pretty solid/consistent performance &ndash; and I hope you guys all continue to be a part of the team. You can reach me on twitter @jpbattingprac or at my email, <a href="mailto:jpbattingprac@gmail.com" style="color:#0563c1; text-decoration:underline">jpbattingprac@gmail.com</a>

&nbsp;

Without further ado, let&rsquo;s get after this slate (also, games at 3:00 AM CST tonight, not 4:30 AM)

&nbsp;

G1: Hanwha Eagles (+220) VS Doosan Bears (-305) O/U 11.5

Bears:

SP: Hui-kwan Yu (6.5/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.25

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.60 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 35 IP, 43 H, 12 K, 12 BB

Looking through Yu&rsquo;s stats, it should almost immediately be clear that this isn&rsquo;t a guy that the analytics are going to support. His K/BB ratio is 1 (terrible), BB/9 is 3.09 (average), K% is 7.7 (worst in the KBO), and his FIP is 4.76 (below average). This is a guy who is getting slaughtered in Major League Baseball. But you know what league he&rsquo;s pitching in? The KBO, oriented entirely different strategically. Yu&rsquo;s lack of strikeouts may be exceptionally low, but it&rsquo;s not a dealbreaker in a league that places more of an emphasis on command and limiting XBHs, so the fact that he allows so many hits is okay because of teams have a very hard time hitting the ball over the fence (2 HRs in 35 IP). If this year were far out of the ordinary ERA-wise, I would be concerned. But if you look back through Yu&rsquo;s KBO career &ndash; other than a 2018 season where the league admittedly juiced the baseballs with the (successful) attempt to spike offense &ndash; this is a guy who consistently sits in the 3s and 4s, and likewise always has a higher FIP than ERA, meaning that he may just be a contact-based pitcher, and we don&rsquo;t have enough batted-ball data to come to a more accurate holistic conclusion. However, we certainly do have data on one thing: the Hanwha Eagles and their offense, which is (probably) the worst in the history of the KBO. Over the last 17 games &ndash; all losses, good lord, it hurt typing that &ndash; the Eagles have scored over 4 runs exactly twice (5 and 6), averaging 2.53 runs/game. To say that is anemic would be an insult to things that are anemic. Furthermore, their projected starting lineup &ndash; which is now composed almost entirely of minor leaguers who were promoted, more on that later &ndash; features lefties in five of the first six slots of their order, meaning that every one of their potentially decent hitters is operating at a platoon disadvantage vs the left-handed Yu. In terms of his outings this year, Yu has had two poor starts vs KT, one good one against NC, two terrific ones against Kia, and a seven-inning, five-strikeout, one-run start vs SK, the team most reminiscent of Hanwha, though still far better. To wrap this up, I&rsquo;ll discuss something that works really well in Doosan&rsquo;s favor at this point in the week &ndash; Yu&rsquo;s longevity. Having played four nights in a row, all these teams&rsquo; pens are run down, and having a guy on the mound who has lasted 6+ in four of his six starts &ndash; including two seven-inning starts of 100+ pitches each &ndash; is a great sign that he can limit the exposure Doosan&rsquo;s lower-end arms need to have. I think that Yu has done a terrific job surviving against the highest-end bats the KBO has to offer, and will thrive tonight.

DOOSAN HITTING: 3rd in average and OPS, 2nd in runs

Eagles:

SP: Seung-ju Han (1/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: N/A, in HS

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 18 IP, 23 H, 4 BB, 10 K (IN KBO FUTURES LEAGUE)

Using a deep dive into the KBO&rsquo;s Futures League database, I was able to find Han&rsquo;s stats from this season, along with a little background on the pitcher. He was a second-round pick out of HS last year and makes $22K per year, signing for just an $8K bonus last year. While this may seem like semantics, the numbers are draft position are important, because it means that he was regarded as below the elite tier of HS pitchers in that class. Han has lived up to that billing this year, looking just okay in Korea&rsquo;s minor leagues. His last two starts look good &ndash; 10 scoreless innings in a row &ndash; but they came against the 4th-worst and worst teams in the Futures League, and he still gave up a lot of contact and struggled with some control, so I&rsquo;m very unconvinced. Furthermore, in his two appearances vs &ldquo;legitimate&rdquo; opponents &ndash; teams ranked 1st and 6th in the Futures League, and in quotations because I&rsquo;m really, really skeptical that anyone in the Futures League can hit &ndash; Han was shelled to the tune of: 8 IP / 16 H / 2 BB / 1 K / 9 ER. One of those outings included an appearance vs Doosan&rsquo;s minor league team, which teed off on the young Han. Riddle me this &ndash; if Doosan&rsquo;s minor league team &ndash; ranked 7th in the Futures League in OPS &ndash; knocks Han out of the game after 3 IP, what do we think Doosan&rsquo;s major league team &ndash; ranked a close 3rd in OPS in the KBO &ndash; is going to do to him in his debut? Furthermore, Han is in the horrible position of being an average right-handed arm against a left-handed bat dominant team, so he&rsquo;ll be at a platoon disadvantage to six Bears, including the entire heart of their order. Han hasn&rsquo;t made an appearance lasting longer than 5 innings the entire season, so even in the dream scenario where he remains relatively unscathed, the Bears will then be seeing a horrible bullpen depleted by four consecutive beatdowns, and I just can&rsquo;t see a scenario where this game doesn&rsquo;t end in a pretty brutal Hanwha loss, unless the Eagles score around 10 runs, which would be more than their combined output from the last five games. All of my readers have seen me look for reasons why the Eagles can win a game &ndash; those include having a pitching advantage, playing a subpar team, and being fully rested &ndash; and not only have the Eagles not won a game, but they have none of those advantages tonight. Buckle in, and let&rsquo;s get the Doosan machine going.

HANWHA HITTING: 10th in average, runs, and OPS. I should just start copy-pasting this.

Game Plays:

1: Doosan -2.0 (-160) 4U MAX

2: Doosan 1H -1.0 (-150) 4U MAX

3: Doosan TT OV 7 (-115) 3U

4: Doosan 1st Inning ML (+180) .5U

&nbsp;

G2: SK Wyverns (-110) VS Kia Tigers (-125) O/U 10

Wyverns:

SP: Seung-won Moon

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.88

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.68 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 32.2 IP, 39 H, 33 K, 6 BB

Moon is a case-in-point example of a pitcher I target in the KBO. His 4.68 ERA may encourage people to hammer Kia and the over, but even a brief look gives us a much better sense for what&rsquo;s going on with his season, which in fact has been one of the best in the KBO. His K% (23.2) is terrific, and his 1.65 BB/9 is otherworldly. Additionally, he&rsquo;s done a great job limiting hard contact: since a debut vs Lotte that included two HR&rsquo;s, Moon has proceeded to give up just one blast over the next 27 IP. This helps us make sense of why his 3.49 FIP is a full point-plus better than his ERA, suggesting that if he keeps working with the same efficiency in strikeouts and limited hard contact, he&rsquo;ll see heavy positive regression. Furthermore, Moon has had a ton of tough matchups, facing NC twice, Doosan once, and Kiwoom once. His starts vs Kiwoom and Doosan were bad, but in one case he was hurt by bad fielding and decreased command, and in the other Doosan found hole after hole in a long fifth inning that marred his statline. Against NC, Moon was terrific, allowing just 3 runs in 12 total innings of work against the Dinos, very impressively striking out 15 in the process. Kia is a pretty decent offense, but they&rsquo;ve definitely struggled against good starting pitching. Last night, they had 2 through five innings before tacking on a few late. The Tigers just don&rsquo;t have a deep lineup, and really aren&rsquo;t much of a scoring threat outside the power bats in the 2-3-4 part of their order, so if Moon can battle his way through the top of the order twice, he&rsquo;s in really good shape, particularly for the first five innings. He&rsquo;s seen plenty of lefties this year between Kiwoom, NC, and Doosan, so he should be well-prepared to handle the Kia power lefty bats (Tucker and Choi). If he could find a way to extend and give the Wyverns seven, I would be ecstatic. As it is, we may have to settle for 6, since SK hasn&rsquo;t extended him past 100 pitches this season, but that alone should put SK in a very competitive spot.

SK HITTING: 9th in average, runs, and OPS

Tigers:

SP: Ki-young Im

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 5.73

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.34 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 32.1 IP, 35 H, 28 K, 4 BB

Im has quietly been one of the most impressive starters in the KBO this season, battling through two matchups and one vs KT to put up a statline with an ERA in the low 3&rsquo;s and a stunningly good 7:1 K:BB ratio. Other than an opening day debacle vs Samsung, Im has been really, really good, allowing a maximum of 3 ER in his subsequent five starts, including three with just 1 ER (Doosan, Lotte, Doosan). Im&rsquo;s peripherals support his breakout year &ndash; a 20.9% K% is very solid, a 3.40 FIP is terrific, and a 1.11 BB/9 is simply inhuman. SK doesn&rsquo;t hit for much power or average, so the way they score runs is by taking advantage of defective command or opportunities handed to them. Thus, Im is an outstanding candidate for facing them, since he&rsquo;ll make the Wyverns earn absolutely everything. Another thing I really like about Im is that despite not being extended past 100 pitches this season, he&rsquo;s thrown 5+ four times, including starts of 6 and 8, both against Lotte. The Giants are a pretty similar offensive team to SK &ndash; their stats were bolstered by a hot start and a recent beatdown of Hanwha, but they both lack pop and ability to string together long innings. If Im is able to continue to command the ball well and induce soft contact, he&rsquo;s got a great shot to give the Tigers 6+, and given how late in the week it is, I wouldn&rsquo;t be surprised if this ended up being Im&rsquo;s first start past 100 pitches. The Kia bullpen is up and down, but I think their end-of-game guys should be available after throwing about an inning each yesterday, and they&rsquo;re very solid threats to lock the game up. Still, I think the strongest play is in the first half, where Im should be able to slice through the SK lineup and record some great innings on the mound in his best matchup of the season.

KIA HITTING: 5th in average and OPS, 6th in runs

Game Plays:

1: 1H UN 5.5 (-120) 3U

2: UN 10 (-120) 2U

3: SK TT UN 4.5 (-135) 2U

 June 12th &ndash; 13thKBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 21OVERALL RECORD: +70.53U (114-79-6) &ndash; $100 bettor up $7,053Record on 4U MAX Plays: 4-1 (+10.4U)Record on 3U Plays: 20-6-1 (+34.75U)Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-6 (-8.37U)Record on 2U Plays: 45-22-4 (+34.

JP's KBO June 12 - 13 Writeup

June 11th &ndash; 12th

KBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 20

OVERALL RECORD: +67.68U (107-75-5) &ndash; $100 bettor up $6,780 in 20 days

Record on 4U MAX Plays: 4-0 (+16U)

Record on 3U Plays: 17-5-1 (+29.8U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-6 (-8.37U)

Record on 2U Plays: 44-22-3 (+32.5U)

Record on 1U Plays: 32-30-1 (-4.05U)

Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or greater): 7-10 (+1.8U)

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G1: NC Dinos (-260) VS Kiwoom Heroes (+175) O/U 11

DISCLAIMER: THE ODDS ARE NOT GOING TO BE THE SAME AT TIME OF PUBLISHING, BUT PICK&nbsp;PUBLISHED EARLIER ON TWITTER&nbsp;REFLECTED THESE ODDS

Dinos:

SP: Chang-mo Koo

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.20

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 0.66 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 41 IP, 20 H, 44 K, 9 BB

Happy Koo Day!!!! I&rsquo;ve bet on the lefty in every one of his six equally outstanding starts, and you bet I&rsquo;m doing it again here. Koo didn&rsquo;t have his best stuff last week against Hanwha, struggling a bit with early contact in counts, but he&rsquo;ll adjust and he still managed to stifle the Eagles offense, striking out six and giving up 1 ER in 6 IP. Koo has dominated against the best and worst competition in the league, including a prior outing vs Kiwoom, where the lefty put up the following statline: 7 IP / 3 H / 1 ER / 7 K. This line is terrific on its own, and Koo didn&rsquo;t have his best command, walking four but still clearly controlling the narrative of the game. Koo should have better command and retain the platoon advantage against two of Kiwoom&rsquo;s best hitters, and the fact that 4 of 9 hitters in their starting lineup are lefties further contributes to my comfort in this matchup. Koo&rsquo;s terrific stats are supported by the peripherals, as his K% (29.7) and FIP (2.11) are both first in the KBO. Furthermore, Kiwoom just came off a road series where they were absolutely locked down by Samsung, who limited the Heroes to 3 runs/game despite throwing a multitude of lower-end arms. The opposite will be the case tonight against the Dinos, who will be operating with their number one arm, meaning if it&rsquo;s close, they can work matchups the rest of the game despite forced bullpen exposure last night.

NC HITTING: 1st in runs, average, and OPS

Heroes:

SP: Seung-ho Lee

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.48

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 7.39 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 28 IP, 33 H, 17 K, 14 BB

Lee&rsquo;s rough start to 2020 has included both good teams and bad, as he&rsquo;s turned in poor starts vs Samsung, NC, KT, and LG, looking respectable only against the putrid Hanwha and SK offenses. The lefty was decent in 2019 &ndash; a 4.48 ERA and 4.36 FIP aren&rsquo;t anywhere near the worst in the KBO &ndash; but his command problems and lack of strikeouts have predictably led to regression this season. His peripherals include a 4.50 BB/9 (being awful), 5.46 K/9 (just regular awful), and 6.31 FIP (one of the worst of any qualifiers in the KBO). I&rsquo;m not sure about you, but none of this &ndash; coupled with his pitiful more typical stats &ndash; jumps out to me as someone who I want to start against the Dinos. He does have some advantage being left-handed, but we saw just how far that took Chad Bell last week en route to him getting torched by the elite-hitting NC squad. While home-field advantage doesn&rsquo;t matter as much in the current COVID era, NC is playing their fourth game in a row at home tonight, whereas Kiwoom is traveling from Samsung and suiting up for another road one. In Lee&rsquo;s appearance vs NC earlier this season, he struggled to the tune of 6 IP / 6 H / 4 ER, recording just three strikeouts and two walks. Kiwoom&rsquo;s pen is lackluster, and combined with an ice-cold offense facing the best pitcher in the KBO, it&rsquo;s hard to feel like they have much of a chance tonight.

KIWOOM HITTING: 6th in average and runs, T-5th in OPS

Game Plays:

1: NC -1.5 (-140) 4U MAX

2: Kiwoom TT UN 4 (-120) 3U

3: NC 1H -1 (-135) 3U

&nbsp;&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G2: SK Wyverns (+110) VS Kia Tigers (-145) O/U 9.5

Wyverns:

SP: Jong-hoon Park

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.88

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.44 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 34 IP, 30 H, 34 K, 13 BB

Park is a guy who has gradually progressed from a back-end KBO arm to a mid-to-upper-tier starter in the league. From 2012 to 2020, he&rsquo;s improved from ERAs in the high 4s, 5s, and even one in the 8s, to two consecutive years with ERAs in the 3s and a 2020 FIP of 3.98 that supporters this progression. Importantly, Park has succeeded against a mixed range of talent, with three of his six starts coming against teams in the upper half of the KBO, including a terrific seven-inning start vs Doosan where he struck out 8 and allowed just 1 ER. He&rsquo;s lasted 5+ innings in every start and allowed at most 3 ER, utilizing a combination of limited power (just 5 XBH in 34 IP) and improved K-rate (24.1%) to help make up for a very poor 3.44 BB/9. Command has been a nagging issue for Park for years, and until he does make that jump to the next tier, it&rsquo;s unlikely that his ERA will ever creep into the lower-3 range, and he won&rsquo;t be considered an elite caliber arm. That being said, he faces a Kia team tonight that doesn&rsquo;t bring a ton of potential juice, meaning that even if he does walk a few hitters along the way, it&rsquo;s unlikely that the Tigers are able to punish him to the point where he has a blowup outing. I do think it&rsquo;s entirely possible that the Tigers put up a few runs along the way &ndash; they profile similarly to an LG team that put 2 runs and 6 hits on the board over 5 IP, and are advantageously starting five lefties &ndash; but I don&rsquo;t see this being a game where either team scores over five runs.

Tigers:

SP: Drew Gagnon

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 8.37 (Mets in MLB)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.48 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 33.2 IP, 29 H, 40 K, 7 BB

Gagnon has a severe case of up-and-down-acitis. Let&rsquo;s peek at his six starts: between three of them, he combines for 19.1 IP / 10 H / 1 ER / 20 K. This includes Doosan, KT, and Lotte, three teams that are not at all slouches. The other three starts combine for 14.1 IP / 19 H / 12 ER / 20 K. There are a few things to potentially make of these games, coming against LG and (bizarrely) Hanwha and Samsung. Since he has only allowed one HR the entire year, my personal theory is that he got unlucky with a few poorly timed walks and fortunate doubles that resulted in runs being scored. This idea is supported in part by a very high .322 BABIP, particularly high for someone with so few HRs allowed, likely indicating not much hard contact. Furthermore, Gagnon&rsquo;s 2.49 FIP ranks at the very pinnacle of starters in the league, a stat that reinforces his incredible K% (29.0) and BB/9 (1.87). I have a ton of faith in Gagnon in this spot tonight as he faces his easiest matchup of the season following starts against KT, LG, and Doosan, three of the best offenses in the KBO. I would be shocked if he didn&rsquo;t put forward a very quality start, and wouldn&rsquo;t be surprised to see him pick up 7+ strikeouts along the way. SK&rsquo;s two big bats are righties, so there&rsquo;s no platoon disadvantage to worry about, and I think Gagnon is in a great position to top 7 innings in a start for the first time this year.

Game Plays: 

1: UN 9.5 (-110) 3U

2: 1H UN 5 (-115) 2U

3: SK TT UN 4 (-130) 2U

4: Kia ML (-145) 1U

&nbsp;

G3: LG Twins (-140) VS Lotte Giants (+115) O/U 9

Twins:

SP: Tyler Wilson

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 2.92

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 35.2 IP, 33 H, 27 K, 8 BB

Just for funsies, let&rsquo;s calculate Wilson&rsquo;s season-long stats based on an exclusion of his disastrous debut vs NC, which directly followed a 14-day quarantine and a long period of COVID-based uncertainty in the United States that more than likely created a horrendous pitching environment. Doing that, we get the following line:

2.89 ERA / 0.96 WHIP / 31.1 IP / 26 H / 25 K / 4 BB

That&rsquo;s simply absurd, and reflects the difference one bad appearance makes in a relatively small sample size of five starts. I will write this writeup with the assumption that that start never happened. If you want to incorporate it, fine. I&rsquo;m giving the proven KBO arm a fresh start. Wilson has overall been terrific this season as a whole against good teams and bad, with his &ldquo;worst&rdquo; start coming in a 6-inning appearance vs Kia where he gave up 4 ER over 6 IP. Otherwise, he hasn&rsquo;t allowed more than 3 ER in a game this season, including a strong 6.1 IP / 2 ER / 6 K start against Kiwoom. Perhaps the opponent he&rsquo;s faced this season that most closely resembles Lotte is SK, a team with a similar run production, batting average, and proportion of right-handed to left-handed bats. In his matchup vs SK (also at home), Wilson put up the following excellent statline: 6 IP / 4 H / 2 ER / 7 K, including one of only three HRs he&rsquo;s given up this season. I expect something very similar or better tonight against a Lotte team that doesn&rsquo;t impress me much with the bat, as they squandered a ton of chances vs a lifeless Hanwha team these last few days. Lotte strikes out at a decent pace and doesn&rsquo;t have much power, so that combination plus Wilson&rsquo;s ability to limit walks (1.02 BB/9, not including NC start) should put the Giants at a severe disadvantage in the box. Furthermore, this game is coming off a tight double-header yesterday, so I&rsquo;m expecting some serious fatigue from both starting lineups, and potentially bench players to appear early and often.

Giants:

SP: Dan Straily

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 9.82 (Orioles, MLB)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 2.23 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 40.1 IP, 34 H, 43 K, 15 BB

Safe to say, Straily has enjoyed far more success in the KBO than he did last year in the MLB. Out of his seven starts this season, only one can possibly be considered bad, a 5-inning disaster vs Kia that saw a combination of lack of command (4 walks), too much contact (6 hits), and an untimely home run result in a poor 5 IP / 5 ER. Otherwise, Straily has looked outstanding, lasting 6+ in three of his six starts, including two 7-inning scoreless starts against KT and SK, respectively. He&rsquo;s looked progressively more impressive as the season has drawn on. Over his last three starts (KT/Doosan/Samsung), Straily has put up the following lines:

18.1 IP / 1 ER / 15 H / 18 K / 5 BB

That&rsquo;s good for a 0.50 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, not bad for a stretch that includes two of the top-three offensive teams in the league. Straily&rsquo;s matchup tonight against LG isn&rsquo;t necessarily easy, but they&rsquo;ve struggled as of late, topping 4 runs just once in their last 6 games despite facing mediocre pitching. They&rsquo;re not the same caliber team as Doosan or KT, and Straily is just hitting his groove, so I love his potential ability to limit the tired Twins to just a run or two here. Though he could do better in the command department, that too has improved of late, with just one walk in his last 12 IP. Overall, a FIP of 3.21 and a K-rate of 26.1% suggests that he&rsquo;s here to stay, and continuing to improve that poor 3.35 BB/9 will only continue to do him more favors. While he&rsquo;s looked better at home, Straily has been proficient on the road as well, particularly in last week&rsquo;s appearance vs the Bears. I support him heavily in this spot.

Game Plays:

1: UN 9 (-115) 3U

2: 1H UN 4 (+100) 1U

3: Lotte TT UN 3.5 (-110) 1U

&nbsp;

ADDITIONAL PLAYS:

Parlay 1 (.5U)

NC ML (-260)

Doosan ML (-290)

Kia/SK UN 9.5 (-110)

Wiz ML (-220)

(+417)

&nbsp;

Parlay 2 (1U)

NC ML (-260)

Doosan ML (-290)

(-116)

 June 11th &ndash; 12thKBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 20OVERALL RECORD: +67.68U (107-75-5) &ndash; $100 bettor up $6,780 in 20 daysRecord on 4U MAX Plays: 4-0 (+16U)Record on 3U Plays: 17-5-1 (+29.8U)Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-6 (-8.37U)Record on 2U Plays: 44-22

JP's KBO June 11 - 12 Writeup

June 10th &ndash; 11th

KBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 19

OVERALL RECORD: +65.33U (102-71-5)

Record on 4U MAX Plays: 4-0 (+16U)

Record on 3U Plays: 16-5-1 (+26.8U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-6 (-8.37U)

Record on 2U Plays: 43-21-3 (+33.5U)

Record on 1U Plays: 30-28-1 (-3.9U)

Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or greater): 6-9 (+1.3U)

&nbsp;

G1: KT Wiz (+125) VS Kia Tigers (-150) O/U 11

Wiz:

SP: Min-soo Kim (1/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.96

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 12.19 ERA, 2.81 WHIP, 10.1 IP, 25 H, 8 K, 4 BB

Let&rsquo;s make this clear &ndash; Kim is an emergency starting pitcher at best, and the fact that KT has no one else to turn to should make it very clear what the current state of affairs are. Kim was horrible out of the bullpen before getting a spot-start vs a brutal Lotte team, and predictably struggled to the tune of 3.1 IP / 5 H / 3 ER / 2 BB, getting pulled after 60 pitches. Kia isn&rsquo;t the best offense the world has ever seen, but Kim literally hasn&rsquo;t had an outing without a hit (in short relief or as a starter) since the first game of the season. Since that 7-pitch appearance, he&rsquo;s averaged well over two hits/inning, and an XBH every 2 innings. Predictably, Kim&rsquo;s FIP is a dreadful 6.98, meaning that even if he positively regresses, he&rsquo;ll positively regress to a horrible pitcher. Kia exploded last night for 10 before a rain delay caused the game to end in the sixth inning, which may have saved KT some bullpen arms, but they really have any good arms in the bullpen. With that in mind, it&rsquo;s crucial that they have arms that can last distance into games, which is the opposite of what Kim brings to the table. Most importantly, Kia showed me that while they may not be much against good pitching, they can take advantage of starters who struggle with command and limiting heavy contact, and the middle of their order is as threatening as practically any in the KBO. Their two best hitters are lefties with a platoon advantage over the right-handed Kim, so if the top of the order can scrap their way on, don&rsquo;t be surprised to see Preston Tucker and Hyung-woo Choi each collect some RBIs tonight.

KT HITTING: 3rd in average, 4th in runs and OPS

Tigers:

SP: Min-woo Lee

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 5.43 (as a reliever)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 37.1 IP, 29 H, 26 K, 12 BB

Lee has made some tremendous steps forward this season, and while I&rsquo;m a little skeptical that he&rsquo;s as elite an arm as the 3.86 ERA / 3.24 FIP would suggest, he&rsquo;s as consistent a pitcher you&rsquo;ll see in the KBO in terms of limiting hard contact (0 home runs) and walks. The three best teams he&rsquo;s pitched against this season are LG, Doosan, and Kiwoom. He dominated LG, got hit hard by Doosan (likely in part due to bad luck on BABIP), and slightly struggled against Kiwoom, but that was all the way back in his season debut. KT is an offense more similar to Kiwoom and LG than Doosan, and Lee is in better shape now than his debut, so I like him to put up a good outing here tonight. Again, the great thing is that he won&rsquo;t have to shut out KT. Lee is a guy who is going to give us at least 5-6 innings of good pitching, and if a few balls bounce his way and he continues to limit XBH, he could feasibly give up 2 or fewer runs. KT has really struggled against good pitching &ndash; mostly feasting on slow-throwing righties with command issues &ndash; and Lee has done a terrific job of limiting damage even if he occasionally walks a batter or two. I love Kia in this spot tonight, and think they&rsquo;re in a position to score 6+ while giving up 4 or fewer, giving us some nice leeway for a win.

KIA HITTING: 5th in average, 6th in runs and OPS

Game Plays: 

1: Kia ML (-150) 2U

2: Kia -1.5 (+105) 1U

3: Kia TT OV 5.5 (-130) 1U

4: KT TT UN 4.5 (-115) 1U

5: Kia 1st Inning ML (+210) .5U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G2: Lotte Giants (-210) VS Hanwha Eagles (+155) O/U 11

Giants: 

SP: Jun-won Seo

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 5.47

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.28 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 33.2 IP, 37 H, 14 K, 8 BB

Honestly, I think Seo is getting a WAY worse rep than he deserves, and he fits exactly the mold I look for in underrated candidates to absolutely dominate. Look at who he&rsquo;s pitched against this year, in order: Kiwoom, KT, Doosan, Kia, Kiwoom, Doosan, KT. Not a SINGLE team in that group is outside the top five in hitting, including six starts against teams in the top three in hitting!! With that in mind, maybe his 4.28 ERA isn&rsquo;t lighting the world on fire, but to me, Seo is a diamond in the rough. He&rsquo;s a 19-year-old top-top prospect from the draft two years ago, so Lotte knows he has the stuff to compete. He has terrific command and limits XBH, so he won&rsquo;t be hurt by either of those, and has a matchup against a Hanwha team in obvious uncontrolled freefall. Let me tell you about a guy grateful for this matchup, and he won&rsquo;t let it go to waste. Even if Seo allows a hit or two, Hanwha doesn&rsquo;t have the power to capitalize, and he won&rsquo;t give away free passes. I could easily see him putting up 6-7 terrific innings and turning it over to a halfway-decent bullpen to get the job done. This is a great example (and test-case) of balancing the analytics with the eye-test. Yes, he has a FIP lower than his ERA. Yes, he allows more than a hit per inning and his BABIP suggests that he is a candidate for regression. Can these things be true while simultaneously understanding that his matchup is dreamy, especially compared to the dominant hitting teams he&rsquo;s faced this year? I would argue yes. If you feel inclined to lean with the analytics, be my guest, but Seo was a first-round pick for a reason, and he has managed to hang tight with the big boys this year. He&rsquo;s fully earned this matchup.

LOTTE HITTING: 7th in average and OPS, 8th in runs

Eagles:

SP: Min-jae Jang

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 5.43

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 7.58 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 19 IP, 32 H, 13 K, 3 BB

Jang is a decent command pitcher, but that&rsquo;s where the positive reflection ends. He&rsquo;s gotten absolutely battered this year, allowing 32 hits in just 19 IP, and 11 of them have been XBH, including 3 HR. He hardly strikes out anyone, and other than a 5-strikeout outing vs Kia, he has average less than 3 per start. He&rsquo;s given up 20 hits and 12 ER over his last 7 IP &ndash; coming against LG and KT &ndash; and with his team in absolute shambles, it&rsquo;s not like he&rsquo;s going to come in particularly motivated with the prospect of losing his job. Honestly, if Hanwha had any other pitching to turn to, they already would have. This is a matchup that Lotte should jump on early and often, taking advantage of Jang&rsquo;s lackluster stuff and inability to keep the ball from being hit hard. Jang plays particularly well to Lotte&rsquo;s style &ndash; they&rsquo;re a team that doesn&rsquo;t hit a ton of bombs (T-8th in KBO), but they can still score against bad pitching, especially near the top of the order. Lotte should only need to get to around 4 runs to secure a win, and if they get more than that &ndash; which I think they will &ndash; I love their prospects of covering -1.5. Jang occasionally puts together a decent start, but this is mostly based on BABIP luck, and even if he does, the Hanwha bullpen is abysmal. Seo should lock Hanwha below 1-3, so Lotte just needs to put a couple runs on the board early and coast it out for the victory.

HANWHA HITTING: 10th in average, runs, and OPS

Game Plays:

1: Lotte -1.5 (-125) 3U

2: Hanwha TT UN 4 (-115) 2U

3: Lotte 1st Inning ML (+200) .5U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

LG Twins (vs SK Wyverns):

SP: Min-ho Lee

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: N/A

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 1.10 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 16.1 IP, 9 H, 9 K, 6 BB

It was hard to know what to make of the 18-year-old at first, but Lee has really come out strong this year as a new starter for the Twins, combining for 12.1 IP / 2 ER / 9 K in his two starts. He has struggled with command, walking six over those twelve innings, but looked good in a 3-inning relief appearance against Doosan where he walked none over 3 IP. It looks like LG is now committing to put him on a more consistent spot in the starting rotation, which makes sense given his success in the role. They extended him up to 100 pitches last week, which is really encouraging since last night&rsquo;s game ran into extra innings, so both squads will be down a relief pitcher or two. Lee was a top prospect in high school, and breaks the mold of typical KBO arms who work in the 80s. He was up in the mid 90s as just a 17-year-old, and was LG&rsquo;s first pick in the draft, so he has the kind of stuff that can dominate, as long as the command comes with it. He&rsquo;s got another relatively favorable matchup with SK tonight, a team that has struggled significantly against good pitching and doesn&rsquo;t possess much power. There obviously isn&rsquo;t much data on Lee in such a short sample size, but I&rsquo;m really encouraged by his demeanor and pitchability in a league without many power arms.

Game Plays:

1: SK TT UN 4 (-115) 1U

 June 10th &ndash; 11thKBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 19OVERALL RECORD: +65.33U (102-71-5)Record on 4U MAX Plays: 4-0 (+16U)Record on 3U Plays: 16-5-1 (+26.8U)Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-6 (-8.37U)Record on 2U Plays: 43-21-3 (+33.5U)Record on 1U Plays: 30-28-1 (-

JP's KBO June 10 - 11 Writeup

June 9th &ndash; 10th

KBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 17

OVERALL RECORD: +84.00U (101-64-4)

Record on 4U MAX Plays: 4-0 (+16U)

Record on 3U Plays: 16-3-1 (+35.35U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-6 (-8.37U)

Record on 2U Plays: 43-18-2 (+40.8U)

Record on 1U Plays: 29-26-1 (-2.05U)

Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or greater): 6-9 (+1.3U)

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G1: NC Dinos (-175) VS Doosan Bears (+145)

Dinos:

SP: Drew Rucinski (7/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.05

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 2.11 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 38.1 IP, 36 H, 38 K, 10 BB

As I discussed last week, Rucinski has no doubt been aided by pitching against subpar competition (only one of his six starts has come against an offense outside the bottom three), but he&rsquo;s done everything that could be expected of a pitcher in his position, working consistently and efficiently to the tune of a 2.11 ERA and 3.08 FIP. Rucinski has produced a ton of strikeouts this year, ranking near the top of the league with a K% of 24.8. This is probably partially a product of pitching against terrible teams, but it doesn&rsquo;t absurdly exceed his preseason prediction from Fangraphs of 20.4%, so even if it regresses a little bit he&rsquo;s probably still going to be above-average. I said this last week, and Rucinski proceeded to lock down SK, but I will say it again here &ndash; I do not think he is as good as a 2.11 ERA suggests, but I do think he&rsquo;s better than most starters in the KBO, and believe it or not, Doosan has struggled against good pitching recently, producing over 5 runs just three times in their last twelve games. I don&rsquo;t expect Rucinski to put up a crazy statline and shut down the Bears for eight innings, but I do expect the seasoned competitor to put up a quality start on a big stage at home and limit damage to at most 3-4 runs. This matchup is a terrific litmus test for Rucinski&rsquo;s future in the KBO, and professional baseball as a whole. If he&rsquo;s able to prove that he can compete against the best teams in the league, he becomes far more appealing to MLB teams as well. I expect him to bring his best stuff tonight, and continue a successful analytical and results-oriented campaign.

HITTING: 1st in average, runs, and OPS

Bears:

SP: Raul Alcantara

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.01

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.63 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 35 IP, 43 H, 31 K, 9 BB

Despite being a former American professional player as well, Alcantara differs from Rucinski in many ways. On paper, the Bears starter has far better stuff. His fastball rings up to 99 MPH, and he possesses a serviceable slider and changeup. This hasn&rsquo;t translated to better results, though, and Alcantara has severely struggled this year, also against bottom-tier competition. Four of his six starts have come against offenses outside the top-five in the KBO, but despite that, he&rsquo;s only put forward one decent start, an outlier against a streaky Kia team. After an amazing 2019 in terms of BB/9 (1.41), Alcantara has significantly regressed to 2.31, which is still slightly above-average but more importantly has negated perhaps his biggest advantage last year. This likely is part of what explains a lackluster 4.35 FIP, which signals that his poor start to the season is here to stay. Other than two starts where he struck out 8 and 9, Alcantara has not topped four in a single outing, and against a stingy NC team that draws a ton of walks and doesn&rsquo;t strike out much by percentage, he&rsquo;s in trouble. Even if Alcantara does manage to strike out 7+ hitters, this doesn&rsquo;t mean he&rsquo;s escaped trouble. Last week vs KT, he K&rsquo;d 8, and in the process gave up 5 ER over 5 IP. Doosan&rsquo;s bullpen is absolutely shot &ndash; and wasn&rsquo;t good to begin with &ndash; so if they&rsquo;re forced to turn the ball over in the 5th or 6th, NC should be able to feast on their relievers. Alcantara has gotten hit hard (17 XBH over 35 IP, as compared to Rucinski&rsquo;s 4 XBH over 38 IP) so he&rsquo;s gotten hurt by worse than BABIP bad luck. With his worst matchup of the season tonight, I don&rsquo;t project Alcantara to hang with the Dinos.

HITTING: 2nd in average and runs, T-4th in OPS

Game Plays:

1: NC TT OV 5.5 (-125) 3U

2: OV 10 (-130) 2U

3: NC -1.5 (+105) 2U

4: NC ML (-175) 1U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G2: Samsung Lions (+200) VS Kiwoom Heroes (-280) O/U 11

&nbsp;Lions:

SP: Jung-hyun Baek (1/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.24

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 10.29 ERA, 2.14 ERA, 14 IP, 28 H, 12 K, 2 BB

Baek&rsquo;s ghastly counting stats pretty much do a sufficient job telling the story of his season. In three starts, he&rsquo;s gotten absolutely torched, allowing 16 XBH in 14 IP, a stunning stat in itself. Last week against LG, he gave up fourteen hits in four innings, good for 8 ER. Predictably, Baek&rsquo;s analytics reveal that he truly has been that bad, with a FIP approaching 8 and 3.86 HR/9. Baek wasn&rsquo;t that horrible last year, but he wasn&rsquo;t good either, and in all honesty, he hasn&rsquo;t been a good pitching in the KBO for a single season his entire career. His low ERA is 4.38, coming in 2017, a season in which he only started 14 games. I can&rsquo;t possibly fathom what Baek is still even doing in the starting rotation, and against a Kiwoom team that has punished bad pitching, I can&rsquo;t imagine he&rsquo;s in line for anything other than a beating. He hasn&rsquo;t had a good pitching appearance since August of last year, and I don&rsquo;t see that changing tonight. In fact, one could argue that Baek may be in for other struggles, too. He&rsquo;s only had a K/BB ratio over 3 one time in his entire career, and it sits at 6.00 right now, suggesting that regression in that respect is on the way, too. I just don&rsquo;t see how Baek suddenly turns his season around in a horrible matchup fresh off three straight abysmal starts. Plus the Heroes ace is starting? Dream come true.

HITTING: 8th in average, 6th in runs, 7th in OPS

Heroes:

SP: Eric Jokisch (8/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.13

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 1.49 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 36.1 IP, 29 H, 30 K, 5 BB

Jokisch has had an incredible season thus far, but didn&rsquo;t quite live up to expectations last week against a dumpster fire Hanwha team, giving up 8 hits and 3 ER over 6.1 IP. He did face some bad BABIP luck, though, as he only gave up 1 XBH over the course of the start, and a couple of the hits were just flipped softly into the outfield. Additionally, his manager clearly left him in too long, as he looked gassed en route to giving up two ER in the 7th inning after battling for six strong. Overall, Jokisch has pitched successfully against good teams and bad, locking down KT and LG in two encouraging starts. Additionally, Jokisch stifled Samsung to the tune of 7 K&rsquo;s, 3 hits, and 0 ER over 6 IP in his second start of the season, throwing just 83 IP. As long as he manages to keep the game low-scoring and close, he&rsquo;ll get a longer leash tonight, which will fortunately keep us away from relying on the infamously bad KBO bullpens. In terms of more advanced analytics, Jokisch&rsquo;s hot start is supported by a terrific 2.37 FIP, in addition to a strong K% of 21.4 and an otherworldly 1.24 BB/9. It is extremely encouraging that this has come against a mixed bag of teams, and though he hasn&rsquo;t yet had to face Doosan or NC, KT and LG (and Kia) are no slouches, and he&rsquo;s dominated all three of them. His home and away splits are practically identical, so there&rsquo;s not much to worry about in terms of regression there, particularly without fans involved in any capacity. I&rsquo;m really encouraged with what he did against Samsung a month ago, and what he&rsquo;s done in every start since. Combine that with the clear advantage the Kiwoom hitters have over Samsung&rsquo;s Baek, and we&rsquo;ve got a great pick on our hands here.

HITTING: 5th in average and OPS, 3rd in runs

Game Plays:

1: Kiwoom -1.5 (-160) 3U

2: Kiwoom TT OV 6 (-120) 2U

3: Kiwoom 1H -1 (-145) 2U

4: Samsung TT UN 3.5 (-110) 1U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

QUICK HITTERS FOR TWO GAMES

KT Wiz (vs Kia Tigers)

SP: Min Kim

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.96

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 7.83 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 23 IP, 26 H, 14 K, 16 BB

Of all the terrible statlines on the slates the past two nights, this may be one of the worst. Kim has been bad on every front. His BB/9 is an obscene 6.26, his K% is a miniscule 12.4, his FIP is 7.13, and he&rsquo;s giving up more than a hit per inning, on average. While he has managed not to give up much extra-base contact, which has probably saved a few runs on his ERA, his command has been an unmitigated disaster, and you simply can&rsquo;t survive in the KBO walking or hitting a batter nearly every inning, combined with allowing more than a hit per inning. Although the Kia offense has been inconsistent, they&rsquo;ve shown flashes of promise, and should be able to knock at least 3 runs across the board against Kim, which sets the stage for the worst bullpen in the KBO to have to work through the rest of the game (including the ninth, since the Tigers are on the road). Even if Kim manages to last 5 or 6 innings, I find it extremely unlikely that he escapes with less than 3-4 runs given up, and it&rsquo;s equally possible that he lasts less than four innings and Kia hits their team total (5.5) in the early goings. It has no doubt been frustrating to watch the Tigers this year, but they finally get a dream matchup, and as long as they don&rsquo;t waste too many opportunities, and convert around the ferocious Preston Tucker in the middle of their lineup, they should be able to scratch 6+ runs across the board.

Game Plays:

1: Kia TT OV 5.5 (-115) 1U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

LG Twins (vs SK Wyverns):

SP: Min-ho Lee

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: N/A

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 1.10 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 16.1 IP, 9 H, 9 K, 6 BB

It was hard to know what to make of the 18-year-old at first, but Lee has really come out strong this year as a new starter for the Twins, combining for 12.1 IP / 2 ER / 9 K in his two starts. He has struggled with command, walking six over those twelve innings, but looked good in a 3-inning relief appearance against Doosan where he walked none over 3 IP. It looks like LG is now committing to put him on a more consistent spot in the starting rotation, which makes sense given his success in the role. They extended him up to 100 pitches last week, which is really encouraging since last night&rsquo;s game ran into extra innings, so both squads will be down a relief pitcher or two. Lee was a top prospect in high school, and breaks the mold of typical KBO arms who work in the 80s. He was up in the mid 90s as just a 17-year-old, and was LG&rsquo;s first pick in the draft, so he has the kind of stuff that can dominate, as long as the command comes with it. He&rsquo;s got another relatively favorable matchup with SK tonight, a team that has struggled significantly against good pitching and doesn&rsquo;t possess much power. There obviously isn&rsquo;t much data on Lee in such a short sample size, but I&rsquo;m really encouraged by his demeanor and pitchability in a league without many power arms.

Game Plays:

1: SK TT UN 4.5 (-135) 1U

 June 9th &ndash; 10thKBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 17OVERALL RECORD: +84.00U (101-64-4)Record on 4U MAX Plays: 4-0 (+16U)Record on 3U Plays: 16-3-1 (+35.35U)Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-6 (-8.37U)Record on 2U Plays: 43-18-2 (+40.8U)Record on 1U Plays: 29-26-1 (-

JP's KBO June 9 - 10 Writeup

June 4th &ndash; 5th

KBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 17

OVERALL RECORD: +80.05 (97-62-4)

Record on 4U MAX Plays: 3-0 (+12U)

Record on 3U Plays: 15-2-1 (+35.8U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-6 (-8.37U)

Record on 2U Plays: 43-18-2 (+40.8U)

Record on 1U Plays: 29-25-1 (-0.90U)

Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or greater): 4-9 (-.25U)

&nbsp;

G1: Lotte Giants (-170) VS Hanwha Eagles (+140) O/U 9

Giants:

SP: Adrian Sampson (4/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 5.89 (MLB)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 9.39 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, 7.2 IP, 12 H, 6 K, 4 BB

With two short starts under his belt &ndash; one against Samsung, one against Kia &ndash; we still really don&rsquo;t have a specific idea as to what kind of pitcher Sampson will be in the KBO. That being said, I will work off the knowledge of watching him pitch last year in the Major Leagues, combined with the difficulty of traveling across the world and jumping in immediately, combined with the fact that his FIP (4.37) is five points better than his ERA, COMBINED with his matchup against a Hanwha team in internal and external turmoil, and use all of that to ultimately bring us to the realization that despite Sampson&rsquo;s two sub-par starts, he&rsquo;s got a terrific chance to dominate tonight. Word is that he&rsquo;ll have a full workload, which should hopefully allow him to establish a nice groove on the mound and turn in 5-6 good innings before letting the top relievers (well-rested after a day off) carry it the rest of the way. It might be a different story if Sampson were pitching against a different team in the KBO, but Hanwha could potentially be starting 4+ KBO minor leaguers tonight, so I&rsquo;m ready to roll with the former American Major Leaguer.

HITTING: 7th in average, T-8th in runs, 9th in OPS

Eagles:

SP: Warwick Saupold

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.51

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.07 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 41 IP, 42 H, 20 K, 10 BB

Saupold is a guy who&rsquo;s never going to put together the prettiest statlines, but seems like he consistently finds a way to just get the job done. Looking through his last four outings, he&rsquo;s allowed no less than 7 baserunners in any of them, but given up 4 or fewer runs and last 6 or more innings in each start. He&rsquo;s the definition of an innings-eater, and against a Lotte team bereft of any sort of power (see above, 9th in OPS and 8th in runs), he&rsquo;ll have a really productive matchup. We saw this earlier in the season, as he put up 7 strong innings of 2-run ball, despite allowing 8 hits and a walk. Sometimes, the kind of guys who rely on contact to get outs will possess a FIP much higher than their ERA, meaning it&rsquo;s likely they&rsquo;ve lucked into balls hit right at defenders (from time to time I&rsquo;ll throw around the phrase &lsquo;BABIP pitchers&rsquo; to discuss this). It signifies regression and is one of the red flags I use to deduce guys who have outpitched their potential. That is not what Saupold is, as his FIPs from the last two years (3.81 in 2020, 3.47 in 2019) and BABIPs (.300 and .295) are right in line with someone who can pitch very competitively in the KBO. I wouldn&rsquo;t be surprised at all to see a 7-inning performance tonight, as long as this Hanwha team that&rsquo;s clearly in flux can play any sort of defense behind him. In regards to the transitional Eagles, I&rsquo;m less worried about defense than other aspects like hitting and pitching depth. In a game like tonight, Hanwha will prioritize keeping the scoring low. I would honestly be very surprised to see this game top 6 or 7, so UN9 is a great pick. &nbsp;&nbsp;

HITTING: 10th in average, runs, and OPS. By a mile. They&rsquo;re horrible.

Game Plays:

1: UN 9 (-115) 3U

2: 1H UN 5 (-115) 1U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G2: NC Dinos (-180) VS Doosan Bears (+145) O/U 12.5

Dinos:

SP: Sung-young Choi (2.5/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.94

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 5.14 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 7 IP, 10 H, 2 K, 2 BB

Whether due to injury or poor projected performance, Choi has only made two appearances this season and has looked meh in one, and awful in the other. The first one came out of the pen against a decent-hitting Kiwoom team, where he threw 3.1 IP to the tune of 4 hits and 1 ER, which will unspectacular, isn&rsquo;t terrible. In the other, he was shellacked by SK, giving up 6 hits, 2 walks, and 4 runs over 3.2 IP, and also hit a batter for good measure. Between the two outings, Choi has thrown up a FIP of 8.44, which is &ndash; to say the least &ndash; horrendous. Now, he faces an elite-hitting Bears team that is coming off a tough series against the top arms in the Kia rotation. Despite only topping 4 runs once in that series, I&rsquo;m prone to believing that the Bears haven&rsquo;t forgotten how to hit, and a matchup against once of the worst arms in the KBO may be just what the doctor ordered. Choi doesn&rsquo;t strike out many hitters, and has had command issues as well, an unfortunate combination against the KBO&rsquo;s 2nd-highest scoring offense. The NC bullpen will be rested, so that&rsquo;s something to consider, but I think Doosan will manage to put up at least 4-5 runs, which sets us up nicely for the over, considering the matchup I&rsquo;m about to discuss. &nbsp;

HITTING: 1st in average, runs, and OPS

Bears:

SP: Je-yeong Jo

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: N/A (was in high school)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 5.40 ERA, 15 IP, 15 H, 10 BB, 10 K (in the KBO Futures League)

I honestly don&rsquo;t even know what to say about this guy. He&rsquo;s a part-time, below-average starter in the FUTURES LEAGUE and is now facing the best offensive team in the MAJOR LEAGUES tonight on a SHORT-NOTICE SPOT START 10 DAYS AFTER HIS LAST START. It&rsquo;s not like he&rsquo;s a top prospect either!! He was a fourth-round draft pick who signed for a small bonus, meaning he wasn&rsquo;t one of the elite arms in the high school class. Predictably, he&rsquo;s struggled in the Futures League, and a deep dive into KBO websites (combined with a handy translator tool) allowed me to take a look into a few of his starts, albeit without any advanced data. From the looks of it, the 19-year-old relies heavily on contact to translate to outs, as he features a below-average 6.00 K/9 ratio and has given up as many hits as innings-pitched, telling me he&rsquo;s not a guy who will successfully work around a lot of contact. If I had to guess, his FIP would be even higher than his ERA, as he currently sits at an atrocious 6.00 BB/9, walking at least a batter in nearly every appearance this season, including those out of the bullpen. Although XBH are not a listed stat, he&rsquo;s given up 2 home runs in 15 innings, which I&rsquo;m guessing is followed by other hard-hit balls as well. Jo may be a good pitcher one day, but there&rsquo;s just nothing to say here. He faces the best-hitting team in the league that has absolutely embarrassed pitching recently, and his start is out of injury need, rather than proven merit. His three starts came against some of the lower-hitting teams in the Futures League, so I&rsquo;m just not sure there&rsquo;s any way he&rsquo;s ready for the competition tonight. Of course, you&rsquo;ll occasionally see rookies make their debut and shock the world, but it would be irresponsible of me to look at lore, rather than the facts of the situation. There&rsquo;s just nothing I can possibly find that tells me Jo is someone I want on the mound tonight, meaning everything points towards NC taking advantage of another bad pitcher and putting up a show. Furthermore, Doosan has one of the worst bullpens in the league, so if NC jumps on Jo early and builds a lead, they&rsquo;ll see some of the worst pitching the KBO has to offer the rest of the way. If Doosan uses their higher-end relievers, it means they&rsquo;re keeping pace offensively, which means the over is likely going to hit hard and early. Let&rsquo;s hope to see some fireworks tonight.

HITTING: 3rd in average and OPS, 2nd in runs

Game Plays:

1: NC TT OV 6.5 (-125) 4U MAX

2: OV 12.5 (-115) 3U

3: 1st Inning OV 1.5 (+125) .5U

4: NC 1st Inning ML (+185) .5U

&nbsp;

 June 4th &ndash; 5thKBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 17OVERALL RECORD: +80.05 (97-62-4)Record on 4U MAX Plays: 3-0 (+12U)Record on 3U Plays: 15-2-1 (+35.8U)Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-6 (-8.37U)Record on 2U Plays: 43-18-2 (+40.8U)Record on 1U Plays: 29-25-1 (-0.90

JP's KBO June 8 - 9 Writeup

June 4th &ndash; 5th

KBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 15

OVERALL RECORD: +58.58 (83-57-4)

Record on 4U MAX Plays: 1-0 (+4U)

Record on 3U Plays: 13-2-1 (+29.8U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-6 (-8.37U)

Record on 2U Plays: 36-17-2 (+35.1U)

Record on 1U Plays: 26-23-1 (-1.7U)

Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or greater): 4-9 (-.25U)

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G1: Hanwha Eagles (+215) VS NC Dinos (-305) O/U 10

Eagles:

SP: Shi-hwang Jang (2/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.95

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 6.93 ERA, 2.11 WHIP, 24.2 IP, 34 H, 31 K, 18 BB

Jang has been an absolute mess this year, getting batted around in every one of his starts other than his debut against SK, where he managed to only surrender 2 ER despite giving up 9 hits. Practically everything has been disastrous &ndash; his BB/9 is an incomprehensively bad 6.57, he&rsquo;s getting knocked around hard (11 XBH in 24 IP), and his FIP (4.84) suggests that even if positive regression is on the way, he won&rsquo;t be much better anyway. The only thing he has going for him is his strikeout rate, but despite striking out 7 against NC in his last start, he still gave up 6 hits, 4 walks, and 4 ER in a 5-inning start that could&rsquo;ve been even worse. This time, I do think it&rsquo;ll be worse. The Dinos are coming off a 10-run outburst last night in which most of the starters were taken out in the mid to late innings, and no key pieces of the bullpen were used. Because of how grueling the KBO schedule is, this is great news and gives them another advantage over a Hanwha team that lost a hard-fought game last night against Kiwoom. Jang practically has only one hope &ndash; striking out hitters in high-intensity situations the entire game and making perfect pitches at perfect times. Given that he hasn&rsquo;t been able to do that in a single outing this year, I don&rsquo;t have a ton of faith that it&rsquo;ll change tonight. Give me the Dinos all day.

HITTING: 10th in average, runs, and OPS (yikes)

Dinos:

SP: Mike Wright (6.5/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 7.98 (MLB)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 28 IP, 22 H, 24 K, 12 BB

Wright is a little bit of a confounding case. His best two starts of the season came against the two best hitting teams in the league (Doosan and KT), where he locked down their bats to the tune of a combined 1 ER over 11 IP with 9 K. In his last appearance vs Hanwha, Wright&rsquo;s statline was the following: 6 IP / 4 ER / 2 H / 4 K / 2 BB. The Eagles were scoreless through four innings, before putting up a run in the fifth and three on a 3-run, 2-out HR in the sixth, so barring that swing, Wright was pretty decent overall. I will say this: I&rsquo;m really not as enamored as some are on Wright. His FIP is not good &ndash; 5.27 &ndash; and a BB/9 of 3.86 is really bad for any KBO starter, much less someone who we expect to be a high-end pitcher. He also possesses a LOB% of 85.5, which is really, really high and points towards regression as well. All that being said, he does have a terrific matchup vs Hanwha tonight, as long as he limits the long ball. This game is as much about NC&rsquo;s ability to put up 6+ runs as Wright&rsquo;s ability to limit Hanwha to under 3-4, and even if Wright isn&rsquo;t terrific, he&rsquo;s not the kind of pitcher who gets absolutely blown up and takes NC out of a game they should win easily. Even his worst starts have been pretty solid, and I&rsquo;m not feeling bad about rolling with him in a very favorable spot, especially since the Dinos are rested and have their full bullpen available, two things that can&rsquo;t be said for Hanwha.

HITTING: 3rd in average, 1st in runs and OPS

Game Plays:

1: NC -1.5 (-160) 3U

2: OV 10 (-120) 2U

3: NC TT OV 6.5 (+100) 1U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G2: Kiwoom Heroes (-175) VS LG Twins (+145) O/U 10

Heroes:

SP: Won-tae Choi

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.38

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 27 IP, 27 H, 20 K, 6 BB

Choi is an example of a KBO pitcher who has been extremely solid without being particularly flashy. The 3.67 ERA doesn&rsquo;t necessarily scream elite, but the guy just consistently produces quality starts and demonstrates durability, lasting 6+ innings in more than half of his starts this season. This is aided by top-tier command (2.00 BB/9, 0 HBP), limiting hard contact (6 XBH in 27 IP), and striking out enough to stay competitive, though not in the upper echelon of KBO arms. All things considered, this is the kind of guy I love in the KBO &ndash; he barely ever has bad starts, the analytics support him (3.29 FIP and .302 BABIP both suggest consistency), he&rsquo;s pitched well against quality opponents (limited KT to 2 ER over 6 IP in his last start), and combines excellent command and few hard-hit balls, all signs that point to this being a guy we can trust. He does have a tough matchup against a Twins team that has swung the bat well recently, but I don&rsquo;t think LG is anywhere near bulletproof, and just because they have beat up on bad pitching doesn&rsquo;t mean they&rsquo;re a team to always avoid. Having Choi on the mound gives me the comfort to look towards a couple different under plays, and potentially money on Kiwoom, though I&rsquo;m not as enamored with their bats as some are.

HITTING: 6th in average, 3rd in runs, 5th in OPS

Twins:

SP: Chan-gyu Lim

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.97

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.43 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 22.1 IP, 26 H, 23 K, 6 BB

Given Lim&rsquo;s history as a below-average KBO arm and his subpar surface stats this year, I wouldn&rsquo;t blame you for writing him off against the Heroes (Lim was a late replacement as the starter tonight for Woo-chan Cha, but he&rsquo;s pitching on normal rest). However, I recommend not doing that, and I&rsquo;ll give a quick look into why. I watched Lim&rsquo;s last start vs Kia, and while he gave up base hits, a lot of that was due to soft contact that found holes, and his defense was absolutely atrocious. Furthermore, he lacked his best control and strikeout stuff, but still would&rsquo;ve presented a very quality start barring two absolutely horrible errors that opened the floodgates for Kia. In fact, the score was 0-0 with one out in the fifth&hellip; before Kia scored 7 runs. Lim&rsquo;s statline from that game indicates a way uglier performance than what he actually put forth. Honestly, that game may be a small representation of Lim&rsquo;s season: looking at the peripherals, you&rsquo;re seeing a guy that&rsquo;s pitched much better than a 4.43 ERA suggests. Here are three examples: a 2.42 BB/9 represents upper-tier command, a 23% K% is very high-end for a starter, a .357 BABIP is absurdly high and suggests terrible luck (since he&rsquo;s only given up 4 XBH all season), and finally, a 2.96 FIP, nearly two points lower than his ERA, puts the icing on the cake in terms of positive regression. All that mumbo-jumbo is to say that while Lim hasn&rsquo;t been the best pitcher in the KBO this season, this is a guy who the analytics say is way underrated.

HITTING: 4th in average, 5th in runs, 3rd in OPS

Game Plays:

1: UN 10.5 (-125) 2U

2: 1H UN 5.5 (+100) 2U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G3: Doosan Bears (-125) VS Kia Tigers (+105) O/U 11

Bears:

SP: Young-ha Lee (3.5/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.64

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 5.14 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 28 IP, 32 H, 17 K, 19 BB

The first thing that stands out about Lee&rsquo;s statline is his horrid 6.11 BB/9, which is almost as bad as Hanwha&rsquo;s Shi-hwang Jang. This is clearly problematic &ndash; it&rsquo;s almost impossible to work around nearly a walk per inning, especially without nasty strikeout stuff in a league like the KBO that prioritizes hitting the ball in play. Lee has had command problems his entire KBO career &ndash; never retaining a BB/9 below 3.36 &ndash; but 6.11 is simply unsustainably bad for a pitcher that is regarded as a very decent young arm with high-end potential. I tried to separate his five starts by command &ndash; he has three decent ones (2, 2, and 3 walks each) and two horrendous ones (6 walks each) &ndash; but that doesn&rsquo;t help Lee&rsquo;s cause much, though he&rsquo;s been (predictably) slightly better in the lower-walk starts. He demonstrated intriguing durability in his last start &ndash; 7.2 IP against Lotte &ndash; but was still hit pretty hard, giving up 8 hits and 3 ER against a bad team. I don&rsquo;t have much confidence in him tonight against Kia, even though I think the Tigers offense is inconsistent and not one I&rsquo;d necessarily bet on any given night. Let&rsquo;s look at the other side.

HITTING: 2nd in average, 3rd in runs, 4th in OPS

Tigers:

SP: Min-woo Lee

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 5.43 (mostly as a reliever)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.23 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 30.2 IP, 23 H, 23 K, 11 BB

If there&rsquo;s been any pitcher in the KBO who has surprised me this season, it&rsquo;s Lee. After a few below-average seasons as a reliever, Lee has suddenly jumped out into the forefront of KBO starters this season, posting a 3.23 ERA supported by a 3.30 FIP. I wrote before his last start that I was unconvinced with his work &ndash; basing much of that on the fact that he&rsquo;d only pitched against one decent team the entire season and was shelled in that outing &ndash; but Lee looked very competitive in 7 IP, striking out 8 and giving up just 3 hits/1 ER. That being said, I watched that game, and Lee did luck into a lot of outs. LG hit a few rockets that were robbed, including three straight in one inning, so I&rsquo;m still unconvinced by his work. Kia is a trendy pick tonight on the road, and I get why, but I just can&rsquo;t shake the feeling that Lee hasn&rsquo;t faced a real challenge yet, and that his below-average 3.23 BB/9 combined with a strikeout rate that doesn&rsquo;t impress me beyond what I believe is an outlier in his last start may catch up to him here. Doosan feasts on right-handed arms with command issues, and cruised to a victory last night that allowed them to rest their starters towards the end of the game and save their better bullpen arms. Yes, Kia may win, but I&rsquo;m not going to be the one who points you in that direction. Honestly, I&rsquo;m pretty excited to see what happens tonight. If Lee dances his way to a good start here, I&rsquo;m sold. I&rsquo;m just not there yet. I won&rsquo;t play anything on either side, but I do like the overs.

HITTING: 5th in average, 6th in runs and OPS

Game Plays:

1: OV 11 (-105) 1U

2: 1H OV 6 (-120) 1U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

 June 4th &ndash; 5thKBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 15OVERALL RECORD: +58.58 (83-57-4)Record on 4U MAX Plays: 1-0 (+4U)Record on 3U Plays: 13-2-1 (+29.8U)Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-6 (-8.37U)Record on 2U Plays: 36-17-2 (+35.1U)Record on 1U Plays: 26-23-1 (-1.7U)

JP's KBO June 4 - 5 Writeup

June 3rd &ndash; 4th

KBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 12

OVERALL RECORD: +51.4U (78-55-4)

Record on 3U Plays: 13-2-1 (+29.8U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-5 (-5.5U)

Record on 2U Plays: 33-17-2 (+29.1U)

Record on 1U Plays: 25-22-1 (-.1.75U)

Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or greater): 4-9 (-.5U)

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G1: Hanwha Eagles (+185) VS Kiwoom Heroes (-250) O/U 9.0

Eagles:

SP: Min-woo Kim (3/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 6.75

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.90 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 27.2 IP, 20 H, 27 K, 12 BB

Kim&rsquo;s &ldquo;mainstream&rdquo; stats seem solid, but even a basic look into his peripherals reveal a COMPLETELY different story. I&rsquo;ll go in no particular order through a couple of them. His BB/9 is a gruesome 3.90, which is in line with his 2019 line of 3.97. This means timely hits/XBH will create runs, which is Kiwoom&rsquo;s specialty. Additionally, Kim&rsquo;s FIP of 5.44 tells us that he&rsquo;s due for extreme regression in the ERA department, which I think will come tonight against a Kiwoom team that is scorching hot, averaging 9 runs/game over their last 6 and pounding the baseball in general. Finally, with a miniscule .211 BABIP and absurd 81% LOB%, we&rsquo;re looking at a guy who has been incredibly lucky. Typically, I&rsquo;d say this would be a great spot for casual bettors to hit the Hanwha side and make the Kiwoom odds a little more favorable &ndash; starters with ERA&rsquo;s below 4 and WHIP&rsquo;s in the low 1&rsquo;s tend to attract some money from those who don&rsquo;t look at advanced stats &ndash; but with the magical Eric Jokisch on the other side, I&rsquo;m not surprised we&rsquo;re looking at a -250 line. That being said, I really like Kiwoom -1.5 and the UN 9, since I feel like Kiwoom can score anywhere less than and the under can still easily hit. Let&rsquo;s look at Jokisch.

HITTING: 10th in AVG, runs, and OPS. And it&rsquo;s not even close.

Heroes:

SP: Eric Jokisch (9.5/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.13

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 0.90 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 30 IP, 21 H, 27 K, 5 BB &nbsp;&nbsp;

Jokisch is Kim&rsquo;s analytical opposite. Where Kim&rsquo;s FIP, BB/9, and BABIP all suggest that he&rsquo;s been far worse than his counting stats suggest, Jokisch&rsquo;s support his excellence. He has a 2.33 FIP, which is slightly slower than his ERA, but 0.90 is extreme, so I&rsquo;m not worried. His BB/9 of 1.50 is in the absolute uppermost echelon of that category, and his BABIP of .259 is right in line with what I would expect from someone who has only given up 6 XBH the entire season. Not only that, but Jokisch gets by far the easiest matchup in the league tonight against an absolutely lifeless Hanwha offense, and he should be given a leash of 100+ pitches, which potentially could take him around 8 innings, since he just stifled a terrific KT team for 0 ER / 9 K over 7. I can&rsquo;t say it enough &ndash; I LOVE Jokisch and the Heroes in this spot, and while a -250 ML tag is probably too hefty, I feel very comfortable taking Kiwoom -1.5 as well as smaller plays on Hanwha TT UN 3.5 and UN 9. There&rsquo;s really just not much else to say here &ndash; you gotta role with what you love, and I love what I&rsquo;m looking at.

HITTING: 6th in AVG, 3rd in runs, 5th in OPS

Game Plays:

1: Kiwoom -1.5 (-140) 4U MAX

2: Hanwha TT UN 3.5 (-140) 2U

3: UN 9 (-105) 1U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G2: NC Dinos (-240) VS SK Wyverns (+180) O/U 9.5

Dinos:

SP: Drew Rucinski (7.5/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.05

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 2.51 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 32.1 IP, 31 H, 30 K, 7 BB

Rucinski is a case of a pitcher that everyone seems to love but me. That doesn&rsquo;t mean I won&rsquo;t bet with him, and it doesn&rsquo;t mean I don&rsquo;t think he&rsquo;s a solid arm, but he doesn&rsquo;t pop in the same way others in the league do for me. I&rsquo;ll run you through a few reasons why I consider the Dinos at -240 and the Heroes at -250 to be completely different confidence-level plays. For one, Rucinski has struggled against teams that are putting together any kind of life offensively (Hanwha, that is not you). He&rsquo;s only had one start against a team in the top-5 in the league (KT), and that went like this: 5.1 IP / 10 H / 5 ER. Not pretty. On the other hand, he&rsquo;s really stifled teams like the aforementioned Eagles, in addition to a terrific early-season start against Samsung. That all being said, I&rsquo;m a sneaky Wyverns fan tonight. They were very pesky against Rucinski in his last start &ndash; putting up 8 hits and only striking out twice in six innings &ndash; and they also pick a great place to bring that approach tonight, considering NC&rsquo;s pen has been hit hard the last few days and won&rsquo;t be operating anywhere near full capacity. Furthermore, they&rsquo;ve turned a corner offensively, scoring 6+ in each of their last six games, in the process taking a game from Doosan, sweeping Hanwha, and splitting a series with NC thus far. Rucinski&rsquo;s peripherals are good &ndash; 3.23 FIP, 1.95 BB/9, 22.6 K% - but I&rsquo;m again willing to attribute that as much to his skills on the mound as the quality of opponents he&rsquo;s faced. I could see SK scoring a few early and making this a way more competitive game than the public thinks.

HITTING: 3rd in average, T-1st in runs, 1st in OPS

Wyverns:

SP: Tae-hoon Kim (5/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.88 (as a reliever)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 24 IP, 14 H, 16 K, 11 BB

Couple things to note here &ndash; one is that this is Kim&rsquo;s first year as a full-time starter, so we&rsquo;re definitely looking at a small sample size. He has been pretty solid as a reliever the last few years, but as we&rsquo;ve seen in many cases, the two don&rsquo;t often translate. That being said, Kim has looked decent in 2020 other than a tough start against Kia, including an outstanding appearance vs NC where he put up a statline of 7 IP / 2 H / 6 K / 3 BB. Obviously, the walk rate both in this game and in general is extremely concerning, but the fact that he was able to quiet their bats that effectively was a work of art. The walks and a lack of heavy strikeouts make it hard for me to back Kim full-heartedly &ndash; and are probably part of the reason SK is such a heavy dog &ndash; but he&rsquo;s shown me flashes of a very solid KBO LHP. Looking at some other analytics, Kim possesses a 4.34 FIP, which is around average for a starter in the KBO, and suggests that he&rsquo;ll trend downward, though it&rsquo;s not bad to the point of extreme concern. As discussed earlier, Kim&rsquo;s matchup against NC is intriguing to me. The Dinos project a lineup of 4 lefties, including their top 3 hitters, which potentially could be a great advantage for the Wyverns&rsquo; starter, and is something he took advantage of in the last matchup. I&rsquo;m not pulling the trigger on SK yet, but if this moves to anything at/above SK +200, I&rsquo;m going to hit them as a dog for 1U.

Game Plays:

1: SK TT OV 3.5 (-115) 2.5U 

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G3: KT Wiz (+155) VS Doosan Bears (-210) O/U 11.5

Wiz:

SP: Min Kim (2/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.96

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 5.23 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 20.2 IP, 18 H, 15 BB, 12 K

Kim&rsquo;s last two starts have perhaps been the two most bizarre I&rsquo;ve ever seen in professional baseball. Against LG, Kim walked seven hitters in five innings, but somehow danced around contact to give up just 1 ER in 5.2 IP. The next start, against Kiwoom, Kim walked 4, hit 3, and gave up 2 hits, and somehow, someway, gave up one earned run!! By my calculations, that&rsquo;s a combined 18 baserunners in 10.2 IP for a total of 2 ER. Impressive. All that being said, I think that&rsquo;s going to catch up to him tonight. In his prior start vs the Bears, Kim allowed 7 runs over 4 IP, and practically every ball that game was scorched. Although Doosan hasn&rsquo;t been the same offensive team lately &ndash; other than an 11-run outburst the other night &ndash; it&rsquo;s not like they&rsquo;ve forgotten how to hit, and a game where they&rsquo;ll be given free baserunners should be a good opportunity to warm up the bats, as they say. Kim fits every split I&rsquo;m looking for with Doosan: a right-handed pitcher with average stuff, a higher FIP than ERA (6.34 vs 5.23), a ghastly BB/9 (6.53), and a low K% (12.4). At some point, you just have to trust the numbers and have faith in a team that&rsquo;s lit up scoreboards all year.

HITTING: 1st in average, T-1st in runs, 2nd in OPS

Bears:

SP: Raul Alcantara (5.5/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.01

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.90 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 30 IP, 38 H, 23 K, 6 BB

Welcome to my quick seminar on why Alcantara is another one of the overrated righties on tonight&rsquo;s slate. His preliminary stats don&rsquo;t look too bad &ndash; a 3.90 ERA and nearly 4:1 K:BB ratio never killed anyone &ndash; but it doesn&rsquo;t take much to find some cracks in his game. For one, he&rsquo;s pitched against the 4th, 5th, 7th, and 8th (twice) ranked hitting teams in the KBO, and has gotten shelled multiple times anyway. His season stats have a lot more luster thanks to a 9-strikeout outing vs Kia, which I&rsquo;m chucking up to nothing more than an outlier, since his other outings from the last two seasons are dotted with 2-4 strikeout games, and extremely few with more than that. Furthermore, while his command has been good, he&rsquo;s also hitting almost a batter/game, so if we recognize that factor, we&rsquo;re looking at someone with average to slightly above average command, meaning his supposed calling card really isn&rsquo;t that impressive after all. Past that, given what we&rsquo;ve discussed about Alcantara&rsquo;s propensity to allow contact, it&rsquo;s not all that surprising that his FIP is nearly a full point higher than his ERA at 4.73. KT has not been shy about picking on Doosan pitching, and after putting up 15 over the last two nights, I see them coming out firing again here. Don&rsquo;t be surprised to see a shootout here.

HITTING: 2nd in average, 4th in runs and OPS

Game Plays:

1: OV 11.5 (-120) 2U

2: KT TT OV 4.5 (-125) 2U

3: Doosan TT OV 6.5 (-120) 1U

 June 3rd &ndash; 4thKBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 12OVERALL RECORD: +51.4U (78-55-4)Record on 3U Plays: 13-2-1 (+29.8U)Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-5 (-5.5U)Record on 2U Plays: 33-17-2 (+29.1U)Record on 1U Plays: 25-22-1 (-.1.75U)Record on .5U Plays (nearly all 

JP's KBO June 3 - 4 Writeup

May 28th &ndash; 29th

KBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 12

OVERALL RECORD: +64.5U (72-44-4)

Record on 3U Plays: 12-1-1 (+31U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-5 (-5.5U)

Record on 2U Plays: 32-12-2 (+40U)

Record on 1U Plays: 25-21-1 (-.5U)

Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or greater): 4-9 (-.5U)

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G1: Samsung Lions (+200) VS NC Dinos (-280) O/U 10

Lions:

SP: Dae-woo Kim (2.5/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 5.13

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.09 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 11 IP, 10 H, 7 K, 7 BB (start vs Doosan)

Kim, mostly a reliever in the entirety of his KBO career, appears to be making a spot-start tonight against NC in what may end up being a bullpen game, since his longest appearance of the season is 4 innings and 64 pitches. Kim&rsquo;s surface stats aren&rsquo;t terrible &ndash; we&rsquo;ve seen worse than a 4.09 ERA in the KBO &ndash; but with a FIP of 6.88, and a history of giving up a ton of contact, he&rsquo;s not in a great place to succeed tonight. Additionally, the Dinos have been scorching hot, and the entire lineup seems to be clicking, including American import and former Phillie Aaron Altherr, who hit a massive, encouraging HR the other night. The fact that this lineup is cooking, combined with Samsung&rsquo;s combustible pitching, means that we&rsquo;re in a really good position to be rolling with NC here. Let&rsquo;s look at their starting pitching, but right off the bat I&rsquo;m encouraged enough to take NC TT OV 5.5.

HITTING: 9th in average, 6th in runs

Dinos:

SP: Drew Rucinski (9/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.05

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 2.49 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 25.1 IP, 25 H, 23 K, 7 BB (starts vs &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Hanwha/SK/KT/Samsung)

With the exception of a bit of a rocky outing against KT in which Rucinski gave up 3 early runs before settling down for a serviceable appearance, the Dinos starting pitcher has been terrific this year. His ERA is probably due to rise a little bit, but with a 3.65 FIP, there&rsquo;s no question that he should remain near the top of the league in pitching. This is a particularly good spot for someone like Rucinski, who hardly ever gives up XBH (just 4 in 25+ innings), and faces a team that&rsquo;s 7th in the KBO in OPS, and lower in most other hitting stats. Rucinski has already faced Samsung once this year and dominated, throwing 6 scoreless innings and striking out 6. I see no reason for anything to change here, and love him in this spot again.

HITTING: 9th in average, 6th in runs

Game Plays:

1: NC -1.5 (-140) 3U

2: NC 1H ML (-170) 3U &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; this feels like a really bad line to me and is worth eating the juice if you can get it, I&rsquo;d say it should be more like -250

3: NC TT OV 5.5 (-140) 2U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G2: Kia Tigers (-150) VS LG Twins (+115) O/U 9.5

Tigers:

SP: Aaron Brooks (8/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 5.65 (in MLB)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.28 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 25 IP, 30 H, 23 K, 3 BB (starts vs &nbsp; Kiwoom/Hanwha/Doosan/SK)

The first thing that jumps out to me about Brooks&rsquo; statline is his absurd strikeout to walk ratio, which is clearly due for some regression, but still suggests that he&rsquo;s been an awesome command pitcher this year. On the other side, a FIP of 2.76 tells us that his ERA and performance so far is not only sustainable, but probably due to improve on the raw numbers front, something that will be aided by the fact that he gives up so few XBH. He&rsquo;s started against 2 bad teams and 2 good teams, and the results have been mostly the same, with a statline of 12 IP / 16 H / 13 K / 5 ER in his two harder starts, and 13.2 IP / 14 H / 10 K / 4 ER. This is encouraging, and suggests that Brooks should be able to sustain his performance against higher-end teams, which LG is, though they&rsquo;re not jumping off the stat sheet on the hitting side. Furthermore, when you look at Brooks&rsquo; 2019 season in the Major Leagues, he really wasn&rsquo;t even that bad!! Unlike some of the Americans you see in the KBO that are coming off seasons with a 9+ ERA, Brooks&rsquo; sat at 5.65, which, all things considered, isn&rsquo;t anywhere near offensively bad. In conclusion, I definitely think that Brooks is better on the pitching side than the Twins are on the hitting front, which means I feel comfortable rolling with him and the Tigers tonight. Let&rsquo;s check out the LG starter.

HITTING: 5th in average, 7th in runs

Twins:

SP: Woo-chan Cha

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.12

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 6.00 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 21 IP, 25 H, 21 K, 7 BB (starts vs &nbsp; Doosan/SK/Kiwoom/KT)

Good news: Cha&rsquo;s starts vs Doosan and KT, by far the best two teams he&rsquo;s faced, have probably been his two best starts. Bad news: they&rsquo;re still pretty bad, and he&rsquo;s getting hit hard by every single team he&rsquo;s facing. His 5.08 FIP is better than his ERA, but it&rsquo;s really not that much better, suggesting that even if he regresses to a more positive mean, it won&rsquo;t be anything too impressive. Kia isn&rsquo;t anywhere near the most dominant offensive team in the league, but they are more than capable of putting up 5+ runs in this game, which should easily be enough to carry them to victory. Cha really just hasn&rsquo;t been effective against any of the teams he&rsquo;s faced this season, so it&rsquo;s not entirely unreasonable to think that Kia has the potential to jump all over him and end this game in the early innings. In fact, I think that&rsquo;s a really likely possibility, and I&rsquo;m rolling with the Tigers in a solid spot here.

HITTING: 4th in average and runs

Game Plays: 

1: Kia ML (-150) 2U

2: Kia TT OV 4.5 (-145) 2U

3: Kia 1H -0.5 (-125) 1U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G3: Kiwoom Heroes (-245) VS KT Wiz (+185) O/U 10

Heroes:

SP: Eric Jokisch (8.5/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.13

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 1.17 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 23 IP, 16 H, 18 K, 4 BB (starts vs &nbsp; Kia/Samsung/LG/Lotte)

Jokisch has looked nothing short of incredible this season, dominating in 3 out of his 4 starts and working to an ERA just over 1, supported by a terrific strikeout/walk ratio and a lack of XBH given up. That being said, it&rsquo;s clear that he&rsquo;s had fortune in terms of his matchups, as he&rsquo;s managed to avoid the top-3 teams in the league until tonight&rsquo;s matchup against the Wiz. Jokisch should still be able to certainly pitch well tonight, and KT&rsquo;s offense hasn&rsquo;t looked quite as dominant as of late, averaging a little over 4.5 runs/game over the last 7, as compared to 6+ in a stretch before that. The Wiz have really made a name for themselves dominating command-dormant pitching, which is not at all what Jokisch will be providing tonight. Though I&rsquo;m not expecting anything absurd out of Jokisch, but I do feel comfortable rolling with him in this spot at home, though I&rsquo;m not yet willing to commit to a -1.5 line until I look at KT&rsquo;s starter, and a -245 ML is sort of out of the question.

HITTING: 6th in average, 5th in runs

Wiz:

SP: Min Kim (3/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.96

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 6.32 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, 15.2 IP, 16 H, 11 BB, 9K (starts vs Doosan/Samsung/LG)

Well, here we see a little more about why the Heroes are sitting pretty at -245. Kim has been nothing short of terrible this season, getting rocked by Doosan, then looking bad against a horrible Samsung team, then making the most absurd 5.2 inning start I&rsquo;ve ever seen against LG, where he walked seven batters but only gave up 1 run!! That&rsquo;s an absolutely bizarre statline, and it doesn&rsquo;t give me a ton of confidence in either direction entering his next start, considering he only gave up 2 hits and 1 run, but gave up free passes at an obscene rate. I&rsquo;d profile Kiwoom just below LG on the hitting spectrum, and at risk of sounding insane, I feel like Kim could pull some magic out of his hat and limit the Heroes to 3-4 runs, giving KT an outside chance to win if they can get to Jokisch a little bit. Honestly, if Kiwoom didn&rsquo;t have their ace here, I&rsquo;d actually be willing to take a shot with KT moneyline, but because Kim likely won&rsquo;t have a ton of run support if he gives up more than a couple &ndash; and the Wiz bullpen is terrible &ndash; I have to stay away here.

HITTING: 1st in average and runs

Game Plays:

NO OFFICIAL PLAYS, LEANING KT +1.5 

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G4: Doosan Bears (-240) VS Lotte Giants (+175) O/U 11

Bears:

SP: Raul Alcantara (5/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.01

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.12 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 24 IP, 19 K, 3 BB (starts vs LG/Lotte/Kia/Samsung)

I&rsquo;ll start this off by saying I&rsquo;m really not all that sold by Alcantara, but a matchup vs a Lotte team that has imploded recently may be just what he needs to put up a nice quality start. Lotte has scored 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 9, 1, 0, 2 (average of 2.2/game) over their last 9, and provides a terrific spot for a command pitcher like Alcantara. They won&rsquo;t hit the ball hard or out of the park, and even after putting up 12 hits in their last matchup vs Alcantara, they only managed 4 runs in 5 IP in a game Doosan won 11-6. My money is on Alcantara pitching better here, since Lotte has trended downward and Alcantara has continued to look better over his last couple appearances, which should culminate in another good one here. Looking at power stats, Lotte is 8th in OPS, which tells me that even if they put runners in base, they&rsquo;ll have a hard time scoring them due to a lack of XBH, a proposition supported by their aforementioned appearance vs Alcantara this season. Based just off this, -240 seems way too high of a price to pay for Bears ML, but let&rsquo;s take a look at Lotte&rsquo;s starter before making any calls.

HITTING: 2nd in average, 3rd in runs

Giants:

SP: Kyung-eun Noh

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.55 (in Australian Baseball League)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 6.00 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 15 IP, 22 H, 10 K, 4 BB (starts vs SK/Hanwha/Kiwoom)

Noh, a longtime KBO starter who took a brief stint in the ABL in 2019, really has not been a competent pitcher since 2013, and his 2020 season has been nothing short of terrible. Other than a start against a Hanwha team that simply cannot hit, Noh has been pummeled for 14 hits and 9 ER over 9 IP, striking out just 6 and walking 4. These two appearances have been against Kiwoom and SK, two teams that are nowhere near what Doosan is. Though the Bears have cooled off recently, they&rsquo;ve also had a stretch of facing decent pitching, whereas tonight they have an old, slow-throwing righty on the docket, a dream matchup for a lefty-heavy team. Alcantara will at worst keep the Bears in the game, so combined with the potential to score 6+ runs on any given day (team total listed at 5.5, which could end up being blown out in a game where I could see them scoring 10), I really like Doosan in this spot.

HITTING: 7th in average, 8th in runs

Game Plays:

1: Doosan -1.5 (-120) 2U

2: 1H OV 6 (-115) 2U

3: Doosan TT OV 5.5 (-145) 2U

 May 28th &ndash; 29thKBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 12OVERALL RECORD: +64.5U (72-44-4)Record on 3U Plays: 12-1-1 (+31U)Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-5 (-5.5U)Record on 2U Plays: 32-12-2 (+40U)Record on 1U Plays: 25-21-1 (-.5U)Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 o

JP's KBO May 28 - 29 Writeup

May 27th &ndash; 28th

KBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 11

OVERALL RECORD: +61U (51-38-3)

Record on 3U Plays: 12-1-1 (+31U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 2-4 (-5U)

Record on 2U Plays: 31-12-2 (+36U)

Record on 1U Plays: 21-18-1 (-.5U)

Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or greater): 4-9 (-.5U)

&nbsp;

G1: NC Dinos (-210) vs Kiwoom Heroes (+155) O/U 11

Dinos:

SP: Young-gyu Kim (3/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 5.29

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.94 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 16 IP, 18 H, 6 HR (starts vs LG/SK/Hanwha)

Right off the bat, it&rsquo;s pretty clear that Kim&rsquo;s 3.94 ERA is incredibly misleading. For one, he&rsquo;s given up an astonishing 6 HR in 16 IP, which is really, really bad in a KBO dependent more on contact than power, as compared to the MLB. For another, he has a heinous 7.17 FIP, which, coupled with the fact that 2 of his 3 starts have been against terrible teams, suggests that Kim is due for extreme regression. As with many pitchers who are on elite-hitting teams, the question is whether that regression will come sooner rather than later. Eventually, he&rsquo;ll have to face another team that can really hit, but Kiwoom isn&rsquo;t quite at that level. They&rsquo;re a true middle of the road team, profiling near the bottom in batting average, near the top in runs, and right in the middle in OPS. They&rsquo;ve really struggled against decent pitching over the last four days &ndash; scoring 0, 2, and 3 &ndash; but this should be a matchup where they have a chance to break out a little bit. At worst, it&rsquo;s hard to immediately write them off at +155, but let&rsquo;s check out their starting pitching before making any decisions.

HITTING: 3rd in average and runs

Heroes: 

SP: Dae-hyun Jung

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: N/A, hasn&rsquo;t pitched in KBO since 2017

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: N/A

Well, now this makes more sense why the Dinos are -210. Jung literally hasn&rsquo;t thrown a pitch in the KBO in three years, and when he last was there, he was absolutely horrendous, starting 10 games and appearing in 17 total to the tune of a 7.06 ERA, with a 7.29 ERA the year before. Jung is, simply put, not a good pitcher, and the Dinos should be able to absolutely torch him quickly. With hardly any data on Jung, it&rsquo;s hard to write much of anything about him other than that the Dinos should be in great shape to score some early runs. That being said, I don&rsquo;t want to go too heavily on the Dinos for anything past -1.5, since I think Kiwoom should be able to score a decent amount on their own. The plays I&rsquo;ll go heavier on are OV 11.5, 1H OV 6.5, and NC TT OV 6, since both teams should be able to make an early dent into the opposition&rsquo;s starting pitcher. I&rsquo;ll also make a smaller play on NC -1.5, because I do think there&rsquo;s a very real chance they get to 8-9, which will give Kiwoom hardly any kind of shot at keeping up.

HITTING: 7th in average, 5th in runs

Game Plays: 

1: NC TT OV 6 (-130) 2U

2: OV 11 (-120) 2U

3: 1H OV 6.5 (-115) 1U

4: NC -1.5 (-105) 1U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G2: Hanwha Eagles (+130) VS LG Twins (-160) O/U 8

Eagles:

SP: Warwick Saupold

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.51

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 2.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 28 IP, 21 H, 6 BB, 15 K (starts vs SK/Kiwoom/Lotte/NC)

Saupold has been nothing short of terrific this season, producing consistent start after consistent start each of the last two years. Furthermore, he is good for distance, giving 100+ pitches in every one of his starts, meaning we don&rsquo;t have to rely as heavily on bullpens that have been terrible for practically every team. This points towards a nice potential under game, which is supported by the total sitting at a lowly 8. LG has been a solid-hitting team this year, sitting at fourth in average and runs, but they really haven&rsquo;t overly impressed me against good pitching. They&rsquo;ve produced games of 9+ runs with decent frequency, but at the same time seem to put up 3 or less oftentimes as well. I&rsquo;m really not that sold on them as a team, and think that especially in a game tonight where Hanwha should be able to count on a good outing from Saupold, we shouldn&rsquo;t look at LG&rsquo;s 15-run outburst last night as an indicator of what&rsquo;s going to happen here. I like LG to be low-scoring, but I want to look at their starting pitching before making a decision.

HITTING: 8th in average, 9th in runs

Twins:

SP: Casey Kelly

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 2.55

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 5.79 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 14 IP, 18 H, 10 K, 3 BB (starts vs NC/Kiwoom/KT)

I absolutely LOVE Kelly in this spot tonight. He&rsquo;s supremely underrated due to a few small spots this season, including an opener vs NC that can sort of be attributed to outside factors and an outing vs KT in which he gave up 4 unlucky runs in the first before throwing the next five scoreless. He finally has an opportunity tonight against a team that really can&rsquo;t hit, and I have full confidence in him not only to pitch well, but to potentially dominate the lifeless Eagles. Having already discussed Saupold, I love the under in this game even more, and think we have a very strong play on UN 8 here. I&rsquo;m also more than willing to put smaller additional plays on 1H UN 4 and Hanwha TT UN 3. These are all low lines, but tonight we&rsquo;ll be seeing two of the best starters in the KBO match up, and average/below average hitting teams. It&rsquo;s a nice combination for an under.

Game Plays:

1: UN 8 (-120) 2.5U

2: 1H UN 4 (-115) 1U

3: Hanwha TT UN 3 (-105) 1U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G3: KT Wiz (+125) VS Kia Tigers (-150) O/U 9.5

Wiz:

SP: Hyeong-jun So (3.5/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: N/A

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 6.48 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 16.2 IP, 23 H, 6 K, 3 BB (starts vs Hanwha/Samsung/Doosan)

Ironically, So&rsquo;s best start of the season came against Doosan, where he put up a very respectable 5 IP / 5 H / 2 ER statline. Since then, things have been a disaster, as he&rsquo;s allowed 18 hits in his last 11 innings of work, all coming against two of the worst teams in the KBO in the form of Samsung and Hanwha. His matchup tonight is somewhat in the middle &ndash; Kia is the very definition of middle of the road, ranking 5th in average and OPS, and 7th in runs &ndash; so the question is whether or not we&rsquo;ll see a serviceable version of So, or the one that&rsquo;s gotten absolutely hammered by two lower-tier teams. Taking a look at his more advanced stats, his FIP of 4.21 does suggest that there is positive regression on the way, and he&rsquo;s also only 18 years old, so he clearly has enough talent at a young age to be starting in Korea&rsquo;s highest league. With all this in mind, I&rsquo;m really not sure where I stand on So &ndash; I do think he&rsquo;s going to get a lot better, perhaps even in the course of this season, but I don&rsquo;t love where he is right now. Additionally, another question is whether or not all the contact he gives up will hurt him; he could potentially flash a 6+ inning start with the number of hitters swinging early in counts, but at the same time he&rsquo;s gotten pulled after less than that on two occasions. This could spell trouble for KT&rsquo;s bullpen, so we&rsquo;re in a tough situation with what we want to do here. Let&rsquo;s look at Kia.

HITTING: 2nd in average and runs

Tigers:

SP: Hyun-jong Yang

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 2.29

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.43 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 21 IP, 16 K, 6 BB, 18 H (starts vs &nbsp; Kiwoom/Samsung/Doosan/SK)

Yang was arguably the best pitcher in the KBO in 2019, and after a rocky start to 2020, he&rsquo;s been progressively better and looks to finally have regained his prior form. His most recent two starts &ndash; vs Doosan and SK &ndash; have been terrific, as he struck out 7 in six solid starts vs the Bears, and threw 6 scoreless innings with 5 strikeouts against the Wyverns. Tonight, he has another tough matchup on the slate vs a KT team that has been terrific in 2020, but after an absolutely torrid stretch they have slowed down a little bit, scoring more than 5 in only two of their last six games. Additionally, with how much their bullpen has struggled, they are extremely dependent on having a good starter, which is not as much the case tonight as their previous few wins. With that in mind, I really like the Tigers here &ndash; Yang gives them an opportunity to win any given game, and though the Wiz are no doubt a solid-hitting team, Kia should potentially only have to score around 4 to win, which I believe they&rsquo;ll be able to do.

HITTING: 5th in average, 7th in runs

Game Plays:

1: Kia ML (-155) 2.5U

2: Kia 1H ML (-150) 1U

2: UN 9.5 (-105) 1U

3: KT TT UN 4 (-110) 1U

 May 27th &ndash; 28thKBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 11OVERALL RECORD: +61U (51-38-3)Record on 3U Plays: 12-1-1 (+31U)Record on 2.5U Plays: 2-4 (-5U)Record on 2U Plays: 31-12-2 (+36U)Record on 1U Plays: 21-18-1 (-.5U)Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or gr

JP's KBO May 27 - 28 Writeup

May 25th &ndash; 26th

KBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 10

OVERALL RECORD: +46.5U (51-38-3)

Record on 3U Plays: 8-1-1 (+19U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 2-4 (-5U)

Record on 2U Plays: 30-12-2 (+34U)

Record on 1U Plays: 18-16-1 (-1U)

Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or greater): 4-9 (-.5U)

&nbsp;

G1: NC Dinos (14-3, -205) VS Kiwoom Heroes (10-8, +150) O/U 9.5

Dinos:

SP: Chang-mo Koo (10/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.20

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 0.41 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 22 IP, 25 K, 8 H (starts vs Samsung/KT/Doosan)

Everyone&#39;s favorite lefty in the KBO is BACK!! After hammering the living daylights out of every possible under in his last start vs Doosan &ndash; where all he did was throw 8 innings of 2-hit, 1-run, 7-strikeout ball against the best-hitting team in the league &ndash; you can predict where I&rsquo;m going with this article today. Before I even start looking at anything else, I&rsquo;m automatically hitting Kiwoom TT UN 3.5 &ndash; they will score&nbsp;at most&nbsp;3 &ndash; and immediately looking at every line involving Dinos winning, along with all the unders. Predictably, NC is juiced out the wazoo, but when you have a pitcher like Koo on the mound, the possibilities are sort of endless. The Dinos have been putting together really solid games on both sides of the ball &ndash; other than a 5-3 stinker against Hanwha last week &ndash; and now have a fully team with their ace on the mound. Honestly, I think the most important thing in this game is actually Kiwoom&rsquo;s starting pitcher. We know what we&rsquo;re getting from Koo, so let&rsquo;s see what we&rsquo;re getting from Kiwoom.

HITTING: 3rd in average and runs

Heroes:

SP: Seung-ho Lee (3/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 4.48

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.91 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 14 IP, 16 H (starts vs SK/Samsung/Hanwha)

Lee has been fortunate to have his first 3 starts against the 8th, 9th, and 10th worst-hitting teams in the KBO, but not only has he still been far below average, it&rsquo;s time for his wake-up call today against an NC team that has feasted against these kinds of pitchers. Lee is not bad enough that oddsmakers are making NC an absurd favorite, but I think that&rsquo;s due to his stats not being horrendous from this year, which is extremely fortunate for us bettors, since I think Lee is way, way worse than he has appeared (which already isn&rsquo;t very good). The one thing Lee does have going for him is that he&rsquo;s left-handed, which will give him a platoon advantage against a few of NC&rsquo;s better hitters, but I honestly just don&rsquo;t think it&rsquo;s going to matter here. I still want to hit the under in this game, purely because I think Kiwoom will hardly get on the board, but I&rsquo;m going to hammer NC ML, NC -1.5, and NC 1H -1 with a vengeance.

HITTING: 7th in average, 6th in runs

Game Plays: 

1: NC ML (-205) 3U

2: NC -1.5 (+100) 3U

3: NC 1H -0.5 (-130) 3U

4: Kiwoom TT UN 3.5 (-105) 2U

5: UN 9.5 (-110) 1U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G2: Doosan Bears (10-7, -250) VS SK Wyverns (3-14, +180) O/U 9.5

Bears:

SP: Chris Flexen (9/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 6.59 (in MLB)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 2.70 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 20 IP, 22 K, 4 BB (starts vs LG/Lotte/NC)

An outstanding start last week vs NC &ndash; 8 IP/10 K/ 1 ER &ndash; demonstrated in full that Flexen is going to be a legitimate force on the mound in this league. Doosan has demonstrated a full commitment to allowing him to work long into games, as he has topped 100 pitches in each of his last two starts, which works very well in our favor here, as Flexen is a great bet to give us 7+ innings of really good work, and turn it over to the best pitcher or two in the bullpen to finish the job. He&rsquo;s had to face three of the better-hitting teams in the league so far, and now gets a great opportunity to pad his stats even more against an SK team that can only be described as lifeless, ranking dead last in practically every hitting category. With this in mind, it&rsquo;s no surprise that Doosan is a light -250 favorite, but that doesn&rsquo;t mean we still can&rsquo;t find good angles to hit in this game. For example, I love Flexen to lock down the Wyverns and limit them to a run or two, putting SK TT UN 3.5 in a great position to succeed. This isn&rsquo;t juiced at all, and we have a great idea of what we&rsquo;re getting from Flexen, so I like it a lot. Let&rsquo;s look at the SK side of the matchup to see what they&rsquo;re working with.

HITTING: 1st in average, 2nd in runs

Wyverns:

SP: Jong-hoon Park (3/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.88

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 4.20 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 15 IP, 20 H, 17 K, 6 BB (Starts vs Hanwha/LG/Kiwoom)

Park isn&rsquo;t necessarily a terrible pitcher, and the 20 hits he has given up is a little misleading, as only 3 of them have been XBH, which suggests an absurdly high BABIP. That being said, Park is by no means that good of a pitcher, which places him squarely in a bulls-eye as he faces off against the best-hitting team in the KBO, fresh off a surprising shut-out and blowout loss at the hands of David Buchannan and the Samsung Lions. However, looking closer at this loss, Doosan still had 11 hits, which typically translates to at least 4+ runs for them. I&rsquo;m not worried about their hitting somehow going ice cold, and they have not made a habit of losing many games in a row, so against an average right-handed arm the Bears should be in a really good position to regain that scoring edge and come back with a vengeance tonight. Park has also had the advantage of pitching against teams that are middle of the pack on the hitting side, so the sudden rise he has seen in strikeouts won&rsquo;t be as much of a factor tonight against a team that hardly ever strikes out. Likewise, his last start against Kiwoom was concerning in that he walked 3 and gave up 6 hits over just 5 innings, meaning that the Heroes averaged nearly 2 baserunners/inning. This story is as old as time vs the Bears, in that it doesn&rsquo;t really ever work.

HITTING: 10th in average and runs. Yuck

Game Plays:

1: Doosan -1.5 (-135) 3U

2: SK TT UN 3.5 (-115) 1U

3: Doosan TT OV 5.5 (-120) 1U

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

G3: KT Wiz (7-10, -135) VS Kia Tigers (10-8, +110) O/U 10

Wiz:

SP: Je-seong Bae (8/10)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 3.76

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 0.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 20.1 IP, 21 H, 4 BB, 11 K (starts vs Lotte/NC/Hanwha)

Bae has been nothing short of outstanding this season, posting 3 straight terrific starts, including 7 shutout innings vs the hard-hitting Dinos. I think he&rsquo;s extremely underrated in the league &ndash; perhaps a factor of his miniscule strike-out rate &ndash; but that doesn&rsquo;t concern me at all since he hardly ever walks anyone. Bae was great last year too and is still 23, so it is very possible that this is a true breakout season for the young RHP. He&rsquo;s in a solid spot for success tonight against a Kia team that really hasn&rsquo;t been much more than average, and profiles in the middle of the league in practically every hitting category. They aren&rsquo;t slouches at the plate, but not necessarily threats to the light up the scoreboard either, which puts Bae in a very feasible position to succeed, especially being backed up with KT&rsquo;s dynamic offense. The total seems aggressive to me at 10, but with KT&rsquo;s bullpen it&rsquo;s hard to ever really know what you&rsquo;re going to get. Let&rsquo;s look at the Kia side before we make any plays.

HITTING: 2nd in average, 1st in runs

Tigers:

SP: Drew Gagnon

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2019 ERA: 8.37 (in MLB)

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2020 Stats: 3.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 16.1 IP, 14 H, 23 K, 5 BB (starts vs &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Samsung/Hanwha/Lotte)

Gagnon has a few pros and cons here &ndash; on one hand, he has shown flashes of brilliance this season, evident in his 9-strikeout, 6-inning shutout start against Lotte, and overall 23:5 K/BB ratio, which is nothing short of spectacular. On the other hand, he really hasn&rsquo;t been all that convincing in his other two appearances &ndash; against Hanwha and Samsung &ndash; where he gave up a combined 12 hits and 7 ER over 10.1 IP. Now, he moves out of the bottom tier of the league and has to face a Wiz team that hits the ball consistently hard, giving them a noticeable advantage over every team Gagnon has pitched against this season. The real question is this &ndash; is Gagnon for real as a legit KBO arm, or has he made a killing off taking advantage of bad hitters? I think it&rsquo;s probably a combination of the two &ndash; he might not be the best arm in the league, but he&rsquo;s not terrible, either. Even so, I still like KT in this spot tonight, though I&rsquo;ll stay away from them over the full game because their bullpen is so prone to meltdown. Two small plays for this game: Wiz 1H ML and 1H UN 5.

HITTING: 5th in average, 7th in runs

Game Plays:

1: Wiz 1H ML (-145) 1U

2: 1H UN 5 (-125) 1U

&nbsp;&nbsp;

NOTE: G4 and G5 are decent, but I wasn&rsquo;t able to find any significant advantages there as compared to the first three games on the slate. It doesn&rsquo;t make sense to force anything in a spot where these first games really jump out, so I&rsquo;m going to leave everything there alone.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

 May 25th &ndash; 26thKBO NOTES &ndash; DAY 10OVERALL RECORD: +46.5U (51-38-3)Record on 3U Plays: 8-1-1 (+19U)Record on 2.5U Plays: 2-4 (-5U)Record on 2U Plays: 30-12-2 (+34U)Record on 1U Plays: 18-16-1 (-1U)Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or gr

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