JP's KBO June 11 - 12 Writeup

June 11th – 12th

KBO NOTES – DAY 20

OVERALL RECORD: +67.68U (107-75-5) – $100 bettor up $6,780 in 20 days

Record on 4U MAX Plays: 4-0 (+16U)

Record on 3U Plays: 17-5-1 (+29.8U)

Record on 2.5U Plays: 3-6 (-8.37U)

Record on 2U Plays: 44-22-3 (+32.5U)

Record on 1U Plays: 32-30-1 (-4.05U)

Record on .5U Plays (nearly all +200 or greater): 7-10 (+1.8U)

 

 

G1: NC Dinos (-260) VS Kiwoom Heroes (+175) O/U 11

DISCLAIMER: THE ODDS ARE NOT GOING TO BE THE SAME AT TIME OF PUBLISHING, BUT PICK PUBLISHED EARLIER ON TWITTER REFLECTED THESE ODDS

Dinos:

SP: Chang-mo Koo

            2019 ERA: 3.20

            2020 Stats: 0.66 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 41 IP, 20 H, 44 K, 9 BB

Happy Koo Day!!!! I’ve bet on the lefty in every one of his six equally outstanding starts, and you bet I’m doing it again here. Koo didn’t have his best stuff last week against Hanwha, struggling a bit with early contact in counts, but he’ll adjust and he still managed to stifle the Eagles offense, striking out six and giving up 1 ER in 6 IP. Koo has dominated against the best and worst competition in the league, including a prior outing vs Kiwoom, where the lefty put up the following statline: 7 IP / 3 H / 1 ER / 7 K. This line is terrific on its own, and Koo didn’t have his best command, walking four but still clearly controlling the narrative of the game. Koo should have better command and retain the platoon advantage against two of Kiwoom’s best hitters, and the fact that 4 of 9 hitters in their starting lineup are lefties further contributes to my comfort in this matchup. Koo’s terrific stats are supported by the peripherals, as his K% (29.7) and FIP (2.11) are both first in the KBO. Furthermore, Kiwoom just came off a road series where they were absolutely locked down by Samsung, who limited the Heroes to 3 runs/game despite throwing a multitude of lower-end arms. The opposite will be the case tonight against the Dinos, who will be operating with their number one arm, meaning if it’s close, they can work matchups the rest of the game despite forced bullpen exposure last night.

NC HITTING: 1st in runs, average, and OPS

Heroes:

SP: Seung-ho Lee

            2019 ERA: 4.48

            2020 Stats: 7.39 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 28 IP, 33 H, 17 K, 14 BB

Lee’s rough start to 2020 has included both good teams and bad, as he’s turned in poor starts vs Samsung, NC, KT, and LG, looking respectable only against the putrid Hanwha and SK offenses. The lefty was decent in 2019 – a 4.48 ERA and 4.36 FIP aren’t anywhere near the worst in the KBO – but his command problems and lack of strikeouts have predictably led to regression this season. His peripherals include a 4.50 BB/9 (being awful), 5.46 K/9 (just regular awful), and 6.31 FIP (one of the worst of any qualifiers in the KBO). I’m not sure about you, but none of this – coupled with his pitiful more typical stats – jumps out to me as someone who I want to start against the Dinos. He does have some advantage being left-handed, but we saw just how far that took Chad Bell last week en route to him getting torched by the elite-hitting NC squad. While home-field advantage doesn’t matter as much in the current COVID era, NC is playing their fourth game in a row at home tonight, whereas Kiwoom is traveling from Samsung and suiting up for another road one. In Lee’s appearance vs NC earlier this season, he struggled to the tune of 6 IP / 6 H / 4 ER, recording just three strikeouts and two walks. Kiwoom’s pen is lackluster, and combined with an ice-cold offense facing the best pitcher in the KBO, it’s hard to feel like they have much of a chance tonight.

KIWOOM HITTING: 6th in average and runs, T-5th in OPS

Game Plays:

1: NC -1.5 (-140) 4U MAX

2: Kiwoom TT UN 4 (-120) 3U

3: NC 1H -1 (-135) 3U

  

 

G2: SK Wyverns (+110) VS Kia Tigers (-145) O/U 9.5

Wyverns:

SP: Jong-hoon Park

            2019 ERA: 3.88

            2020 Stats: 3.44 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 34 IP, 30 H, 34 K, 13 BB

Park is a guy who has gradually progressed from a back-end KBO arm to a mid-to-upper-tier starter in the league. From 2012 to 2020, he’s improved from ERAs in the high 4s, 5s, and even one in the 8s, to two consecutive years with ERAs in the 3s and a 2020 FIP of 3.98 that supporters this progression. Importantly, Park has succeeded against a mixed range of talent, with three of his six starts coming against teams in the upper half of the KBO, including a terrific seven-inning start vs Doosan where he struck out 8 and allowed just 1 ER. He’s lasted 5+ innings in every start and allowed at most 3 ER, utilizing a combination of limited power (just 5 XBH in 34 IP) and improved K-rate (24.1%) to help make up for a very poor 3.44 BB/9. Command has been a nagging issue for Park for years, and until he does make that jump to the next tier, it’s unlikely that his ERA will ever creep into the lower-3 range, and he won’t be considered an elite caliber arm. That being said, he faces a Kia team tonight that doesn’t bring a ton of potential juice, meaning that even if he does walk a few hitters along the way, it’s unlikely that the Tigers are able to punish him to the point where he has a blowup outing. I do think it’s entirely possible that the Tigers put up a few runs along the way – they profile similarly to an LG team that put 2 runs and 6 hits on the board over 5 IP, and are advantageously starting five lefties – but I don’t see this being a game where either team scores over five runs.

Tigers:

SP: Drew Gagnon

            2019 ERA: 8.37 (Mets in MLB)

            2020 Stats: 3.48 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 33.2 IP, 29 H, 40 K, 7 BB

Gagnon has a severe case of up-and-down-acitis. Let’s peek at his six starts: between three of them, he combines for 19.1 IP / 10 H / 1 ER / 20 K. This includes Doosan, KT, and Lotte, three teams that are not at all slouches. The other three starts combine for 14.1 IP / 19 H / 12 ER / 20 K. There are a few things to potentially make of these games, coming against LG and (bizarrely) Hanwha and Samsung. Since he has only allowed one HR the entire year, my personal theory is that he got unlucky with a few poorly timed walks and fortunate doubles that resulted in runs being scored. This idea is supported in part by a very high .322 BABIP, particularly high for someone with so few HRs allowed, likely indicating not much hard contact. Furthermore, Gagnon’s 2.49 FIP ranks at the very pinnacle of starters in the league, a stat that reinforces his incredible K% (29.0) and BB/9 (1.87). I have a ton of faith in Gagnon in this spot tonight as he faces his easiest matchup of the season following starts against KT, LG, and Doosan, three of the best offenses in the KBO. I would be shocked if he didn’t put forward a very quality start, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him pick up 7+ strikeouts along the way. SK’s two big bats are righties, so there’s no platoon disadvantage to worry about, and I think Gagnon is in a great position to top 7 innings in a start for the first time this year.

Game Plays:

1: UN 9.5 (-110) 3U

2: 1H UN 5 (-115) 2U

3: SK TT UN 4 (-130) 2U

4: Kia ML (-145) 1U

 

G3: LG Twins (-140) VS Lotte Giants (+115) O/U 9

Twins:

SP: Tyler Wilson

            2019 ERA: 2.92

            2020 Stats: 4.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 35.2 IP, 33 H, 27 K, 8 BB

Just for funsies, let’s calculate Wilson’s season-long stats based on an exclusion of his disastrous debut vs NC, which directly followed a 14-day quarantine and a long period of COVID-based uncertainty in the United States that more than likely created a horrendous pitching environment. Doing that, we get the following line:

2.89 ERA / 0.96 WHIP / 31.1 IP / 26 H / 25 K / 4 BB

That’s simply absurd, and reflects the difference one bad appearance makes in a relatively small sample size of five starts. I will write this writeup with the assumption that that start never happened. If you want to incorporate it, fine. I’m giving the proven KBO arm a fresh start. Wilson has overall been terrific this season as a whole against good teams and bad, with his “worst” start coming in a 6-inning appearance vs Kia where he gave up 4 ER over 6 IP. Otherwise, he hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a game this season, including a strong 6.1 IP / 2 ER / 6 K start against Kiwoom. Perhaps the opponent he’s faced this season that most closely resembles Lotte is SK, a team with a similar run production, batting average, and proportion of right-handed to left-handed bats. In his matchup vs SK (also at home), Wilson put up the following excellent statline: 6 IP / 4 H / 2 ER / 7 K, including one of only three HRs he’s given up this season. I expect something very similar or better tonight against a Lotte team that doesn’t impress me much with the bat, as they squandered a ton of chances vs a lifeless Hanwha team these last few days. Lotte strikes out at a decent pace and doesn’t have much power, so that combination plus Wilson’s ability to limit walks (1.02 BB/9, not including NC start) should put the Giants at a severe disadvantage in the box. Furthermore, this game is coming off a tight double-header yesterday, so I’m expecting some serious fatigue from both starting lineups, and potentially bench players to appear early and often.

Giants:

SP: Dan Straily

            2019 ERA: 9.82 (Orioles, MLB)

            2020 Stats: 2.23 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 40.1 IP, 34 H, 43 K, 15 BB

Safe to say, Straily has enjoyed far more success in the KBO than he did last year in the MLB. Out of his seven starts this season, only one can possibly be considered bad, a 5-inning disaster vs Kia that saw a combination of lack of command (4 walks), too much contact (6 hits), and an untimely home run result in a poor 5 IP / 5 ER. Otherwise, Straily has looked outstanding, lasting 6+ in three of his six starts, including two 7-inning scoreless starts against KT and SK, respectively. He’s looked progressively more impressive as the season has drawn on. Over his last three starts (KT/Doosan/Samsung), Straily has put up the following lines:

18.1 IP / 1 ER / 15 H / 18 K / 5 BB

That’s good for a 0.50 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, not bad for a stretch that includes two of the top-three offensive teams in the league. Straily’s matchup tonight against LG isn’t necessarily easy, but they’ve struggled as of late, topping 4 runs just once in their last 6 games despite facing mediocre pitching. They’re not the same caliber team as Doosan or KT, and Straily is just hitting his groove, so I love his potential ability to limit the tired Twins to just a run or two here. Though he could do better in the command department, that too has improved of late, with just one walk in his last 12 IP. Overall, a FIP of 3.21 and a K-rate of 26.1% suggests that he’s here to stay, and continuing to improve that poor 3.35 BB/9 will only continue to do him more favors. While he’s looked better at home, Straily has been proficient on the road as well, particularly in last week’s appearance vs the Bears. I support him heavily in this spot.

Game Plays:

1: UN 9 (-115) 3U

2: 1H UN 4 (+100) 1U

3: Lotte TT UN 3.5 (-110) 1U

 

ADDITIONAL PLAYS:

Parlay 1 (.5U)

NC ML (-260)

Doosan ML (-290)

Kia/SK UN 9.5 (-110)

Wiz ML (-220)

(+417)

 

Parlay 2 (1U)

NC ML (-260)

Doosan ML (-290)

(-116)