Corey's 3 Favorite NFL Season Wins Bets
My 3 Favorite 2020 NFL Season Win Totals:
I want to start this article by saying it's important to make sure you understand your sportbook's rules when it comes to the 2020 NFL season. We have seen other professional sports miss games and it's important you know how your bets will be graded in a shortened/altered season. It may not make sense for you to tie up a lot of your funds in season long bets that potentially may never be settled. I have a book that has allowed me to bet almost all of my NFL futures on credit. This way I won't lessen my bankroll with bets that have a decent level of uncertainty pertaining to them. With all this being said, I truly believe the NFL will have a full successful season. Find me on twitter @PICKSwCLARS24 for all the fun and profit!
Detroit Lions Over 7 Wins (+100)
- This is a team that gets Matthew Stafford back. He’s a quarterback who was on pace to be #2 in the league in passing yards and #1 in passing yards per attempt before he got injured. His replacements last season? Driskel and Blough. You can’t look at last year’s offensive numbers and make too many assumptions. Stafford is surrounded with weapons that suit his and Offensive Coordinator Bevell’s style well. Stafford has shown to be a more aggressive QB in the NFL and he has weapons like Golladay, Jones, and Hockenson that all can make plays downfield. In addition, he has a solid possession WR in Amendola and a two headed backfield in Kerryon Johnson and D’Andre Swift out of Georgia. If healthy, this looks like a very aggressive and explosive offense.
- It’s easy to look at their 3-12-1 record last season and think 7 wins is about right. Not so fast though, let’s look at the 8 games Stafford played in:
- Week 1: Cardinals – Tie 27-27 (up 24-6 in the 4th )
- Week 2: Chargers – Win 13-10
- Week 3: Eagles – Win 27-24
- Week 4: Chiefs – Loss 30-34 (up 30-27 in the 4th)
- Week 6: Packers – Loss 22-23 (up 22-13 in the 4th)
- Week 7: Vikings – Loss 30-42
- Week 8: Giants – Win 31-26
- Week 9: Raiders – Loss 24-31 (tied 24-24 in the 4th)
The Lions played a pretty competitive schedule and went 3-4-1 with Stafford. They went 0-8 without him. And take a look at 2 of the games they lost: a competitive game vs the Super Bowl champion Chiefs and a 1 point loss to the Packers in Lambeau that was stolen by the refs. Stafford completely changes the outlook of this team.
- We’re looking at a down year for the NFC North. The Packers were the most fraudulent 13 win team in NFL history, the Bears still have Trubisky or Foles at quarterback, and the Vikings lost and didn’t exactly replace several defensive starters this offseason. On top of an easier division, the Lions have the 9th easiest SOS this season.
- This offseason the Lions focused on their main weakness from last season, their defense. They added Okudah in the draft along with Collins, Williams, Harmon, Shelton, and Trufant through free agency and trades. Several of these players are playmakers and this defense can only see improvement from 2019.
New York Giants Under 6 Wins (-105)
- Hardest strength of schedule in the entire NFL in 2020. Notable games:
- Home games: Cowboys, Eagles, Steelers, 49ers, Buccaneers, and Browns.
- Away games: Cowboys, Eagles, Rams, Bears, Seahawks, and Ravens.
Underdogs in 13 of their 16 games. Of those 13 games, they are underdogs of 5.5+ points in 7 of those 13. The 3 games they are favored in are small lines too. The Redskins (-4.5), the Bengals (-1), and the Cardinals (-1).
- Return only 66% of their snaps from last season – 31st in the NFL. They also have a new Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, and Defensive Coordinator. This is a season where continuity will be more important than ever due to a lack of a preseason and such a bizarre offseason.
- Daniel Jones is a turnover machine and easily a bottom 10 starting quarterback. This is a year where offenses might hold a stronger advantage than normal with the lack of crowd noise. I don’t think that bodes well for Daniel Jones and the Giants. He was basically the sole reason the Giants had a -17 turnover margin last year in a season where they saw a significantly easier schedule. In addition, all 3 divisional foes arguably got better on defense.
Minnesota Vikings Under 9 Wins (-105)
- As I mentioned with the Giants, continuity will be more important this season early on. The Vikings return only 68.7% of their overall snaps which ranks 5th worst in the league. Additionally, they have a new Defensive Coordinator and Special Teams Coordinator to get familiar with.
- The Vikings had turnover luck, injury luck, and field goal luck go there way in 2019. They recovered 5.3 more fumbles than expected based on average recovery rates and they were the healthiest team in the NFL.
- The Vikings are a fantastic cover and straight up team at home in their new stadium. Since their new stadium was built, the Vikings have gone 21-9-3 ATS. This advantage the Vikings usually have will be neutralized in a season with limited to no fans.
- The Vikings lost a talented receiver in Diggs to the Bills and I honestly don’t see an immediate replacement. They drafted Justin Jefferson out of LSU but early signs point to Bisi Johnson getting the starting role, a 7th round pick who had 31 catches in 2019.
- The Vikings defense will be without 5 starters from their 2019 campaign. They no longer have talented defensive lineman Linval Joseph and Everson Griffin. Additionally, Danielle Hunter has missed 12+ straight practices with an undisclosed injury. Now they did add Yannick Ngakoue but if Danielle Hunter’s injury lingers at all they will really struggle on the defensive line. At corner they have even more turnover. They lost all 3 starting corners. Although Rhodes, Alexander, and Waynes didn’t have stellar years, they’re being replaced with a cornerback rotation that is made up of half rookies.
- I look at the Vikings roster by positional group and I don’t see improvement anywhere. And that’s coming off a season in which the Vikings were the healthiest team in the league but still only managed 10 wins.
Remember to sign-up for the Bet Karma NFL Premium package to get exclusive access to our market-beating, competitor-crushing managed Sportfolio picks ????, delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel! Be sure to also listen to The Sports Trading Desk Podcast ???? on iTunes and Stitcher each week to hear our most salient handicaps, market insights, and Sportfolio performance breakdowns ????. Follow Brett (@nonrandomalpha), Zach (@betkarmazach) and Corey (@PICKSwCLARS24) on Twitter ???? to catch their latest musings, actionable intel, and sardonic commentaries - you might even find a free premium play or two ????????