Each week of the NFL season I will assign confidence ranks to all Sunday and Monday games against the spread. When there are 15 games, I will rank each game from 1 to 15. Number 1 represents my most confident spread selection. Number 15 represents my least confident. The confidence ranks do not necessarily represent how I am distributing my bets.

Note: These are not the extent of handicaps, so keep an eye out on twitter and discord to see all my takes. Some of these selections were made earlier in the week and the line posted may no longer be available. Make sure to&nbsp;sign-up for the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium">Bet Karma NFL Premium package</a>&nbsp;to get exclusive access to our market-beating picks, props, and daily fantasy plays delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel.&nbsp;And as always, find me on twitter&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24">@PICKSwCLARS24</a>&nbsp;for all the fun and profit!

Season Recap (93-71-3)

#1 ATS: 6-6

#2 ATS: 6-6

#3 ATS: 6-5-1

#4 ATS: 8-3-1

#5 ATS: 8-4

#6 ATS: 9-3

#7 ATS: 4-8

#8 ATS: 7-5

#9 ATS: 5-7

#10 ATS: 7-5

#11 ATS: 5-7

#12 ATS: 8-4

#13 ATS: 7-5

#14 ATS: 5-1-1

#15 ATS: 2-2

<hr />
<hr />
I have included&nbsp;DVOA comparisons for each and every matchup this week. DVOA measures a team&#39;s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. Each statistic is ranked 1 to 32 for the 32 teams in the NFL, with 1 being the best, and 32 being the worst. I created an offensive grade that I give them based on each of the individual matchups pictured. This is something I love to look at on a week-to-week basis in regards to how the teams stack up vs. one another. But as always, there is a lot more that goes into my selection of games from week-to-week than just these rankings.

<hr />
<hr />
<h1>Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns</h1>

<img alt="Inline image" src="https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-aeImPGlUjM7GHXeugwaPfOPr5T8dXXyc74gjUq60XI4FvhLyHTKSP40PMd3adTxzpXSQPIt7834jXjyRXCwNNg/messages/@.id==AL8aSbdhOYrUX9PetQopkNM94pc/content/parts/@.id==15/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&amp;downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&amp;pid=15" />

#1 ATS Selection: Baltimore Ravens -1

<hr />
<h1>Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills</h1>

<img alt="Inline image" src="https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-aeImPGlUjM7GHXeugwaPfOPr5T8dXXyc74gjUq60XI4FvhLyHTKSP40PMd3adTxzpXSQPIt7834jXjyRXCwNNg/messages/@.id==AL8aSbdhOYrUX9PetQopkNM94pc/content/parts/@.id==16/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&amp;downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&amp;pid=16" />

#2 ATS Selection: Buffalo Bills -2

<hr />
<h1>Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants</h1>

<img alt="Inline image" src="https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-aeImPGlUjM7GHXeugwaPfOPr5T8dXXyc74gjUq60XI4FvhLyHTKSP40PMd3adTxzpXSQPIt7834jXjyRXCwNNg/messages/@.id==AL8aSbdhOYrUX9PetQopkNM94pc/content/parts/@.id==12/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&amp;downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&amp;pid=12" />

#3 ATS Selection: New York Giants +3

<hr />
<h1>Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears</h1>

<img alt="Inline image" src="https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-aeImPGlUjM7GHXeugwaPfOPr5T8dXXyc74gjUq60XI4FvhLyHTKSP40PMd3adTxzpXSQPIt7834jXjyRXCwNNg/messages/@.id==AL8aSbdhOYrUX9PetQopkNM94pc/content/parts/@.id==4/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&amp;downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&amp;pid=4" />

#4 ATS Selection: Houston Texans -1

<hr />
<h1>New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles</h1>

<img alt="Inline image" src="https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-aeImPGlUjM7GHXeugwaPfOPr5T8dXXyc74gjUq60XI4FvhLyHTKSP40PMd3adTxzpXSQPIt7834jXjyRXCwNNg/messages/@.id==AL8aSbdhOYrUX9PetQopkNM94pc/content/parts/@.id==10/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&amp;downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&amp;pid=10" />

#5 ATS Selection: New Orleans Saints -6.5

<hr />
<h1>Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins</h1>

<img alt="Inline image" src="https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-aeImPGlUjM7GHXeugwaPfOPr5T8dXXyc74gjUq60XI4FvhLyHTKSP40PMd3adTxzpXSQPIt7834jXjyRXCwNNg/messages/@.id==AL8aSbdhOYrUX9PetQopkNM94pc/content/parts/@.id==6/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&amp;downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&amp;pid=6" />

#6 ATS Selection: Kansas City Chiefs -7

<hr />
<h1>New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks</h1>

<img alt="Inline image" src="https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-aeImPGlUjM7GHXeugwaPfOPr5T8dXXyc74gjUq60XI4FvhLyHTKSP40PMd3adTxzpXSQPIt7834jXjyRXCwNNg/messages/@.id==AL8aSbdhOYrUX9PetQopkNM94pc/content/parts/@.id==8/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&amp;downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&amp;pid=8" />

#7 ATS Selection: New York Jets +14

<hr />
<h1>Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars</h1>

<img alt="Inline image" src="https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-aeImPGlUjM7GHXeugwaPfOPr5T8dXXyc74gjUq60XI4FvhLyHTKSP40PMd3adTxzpXSQPIt7834jXjyRXCwNNg/messages/@.id==AL8aSbdhOYrUX9PetQopkNM94pc/content/parts/@.id==3/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&amp;downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&amp;pid=3" />

#8 ATS Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5

<hr />
<h1>Indinapolis Colts @ Las Vegas Raiders</h1>

<img alt="Inline image" src="https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-aeImPGlUjM7GHXeugwaPfOPr5T8dXXyc74gjUq60XI4FvhLyHTKSP40PMd3adTxzpXSQPIt7834jXjyRXCwNNg/messages/@.id==AL8aSbdhOYrUX9PetQopkNM94pc/content/parts/@.id==7/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&amp;downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&amp;pid=7" />

#9 ATS Selection: Indianapolis Colts -2.5

<hr />
<h1>Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers</h1>

<img alt="Inline image" src="https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-aeImPGlUjM7GHXeugwaPfOPr5T8dXXyc74gjUq60XI4FvhLyHTKSP40PMd3adTxzpXSQPIt7834jXjyRXCwNNg/messages/@.id==AL8aSbdhOYrUX9PetQopkNM94pc/content/parts/@.id==5/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&amp;downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&amp;pid=5" />

#10 ATS Selection: Minnesota Vikings +7

<hr />
<h1>Washington Football Team @ San Francisco 49ers</h1>

<img alt="Inline image" src="https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-aeImPGlUjM7GHXeugwaPfOPr5T8dXXyc74gjUq60XI4FvhLyHTKSP40PMd3adTxzpXSQPIt7834jXjyRXCwNNg/messages/@.id==AL8aSbdhOYrUX9PetQopkNM94pc/content/parts/@.id==14/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&amp;downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&amp;pid=14" />

#11 ATS Selection: Washington Football Team +3.5

<hr />
<h1>Dallas Cowboys @ Cincinnati Bengals</h1>

<img alt="Inline image" src="https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-aeImPGlUjM7GHXeugwaPfOPr5T8dXXyc74gjUq60XI4FvhLyHTKSP40PMd3adTxzpXSQPIt7834jXjyRXCwNNg/messages/@.id==AL8aSbdhOYrUX9PetQopkNM94pc/content/parts/@.id==11/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&amp;downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&amp;pid=11" />

#12 ATS Selection: Dallas Cowboys -3.5

<hr />
<h1>Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers</h1>

<img alt="Inline image" src="https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-aeImPGlUjM7GHXeugwaPfOPr5T8dXXyc74gjUq60XI4FvhLyHTKSP40PMd3adTxzpXSQPIt7834jXjyRXCwNNg/messages/@.id==AL8aSbdhOYrUX9PetQopkNM94pc/content/parts/@.id==13/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&amp;downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&amp;pid=13" />

#13&nbsp;ATS Selection: Carolina Panthers -3

<hr />
<h1>Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions</h1>

<img alt="Inline image" src="https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-aeImPGlUjM7GHXeugwaPfOPr5T8dXXyc74gjUq60XI4FvhLyHTKSP40PMd3adTxzpXSQPIt7834jXjyRXCwNNg/messages/@.id==AL8aSbdhOYrUX9PetQopkNM94pc/content/parts/@.id==2/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&amp;downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&amp;pid=2" />

#14&nbsp;ATS Selection: Green Bay Packers -8

<hr />
<h1>Atlanta Falcons @ Los Angeles Chargers</h1>

<img alt="Inline image" src="https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-aeImPGlUjM7GHXeugwaPfOPr5T8dXXyc74gjUq60XI4FvhLyHTKSP40PMd3adTxzpXSQPIt7834jXjyRXCwNNg/messages/@.id==AL8aSbdhOYrUX9PetQopkNM94pc/content/parts/@.id==9/thumbnail?appId=YMailNorrin&amp;downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&amp;pid=9" />

#15&nbsp;ATS Selection: Atlanta Falcons -1

<hr />
<hr />
<hr />
Remember to sign-up for the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium">Bet Karma NFL Premium package</a>&nbsp;to get exclusive access to our market-beating, competitor-crushing managed Sportfolio picks&nbsp;🤑, delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel.&nbsp;Be sure to also listen to&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/TradingDeskPod">The Sports Trading Desk Podcast</a>&nbsp;📈&nbsp;on iTunes and Stitcher each week to hear our most salient handicaps, market insights, and Sportfolio performance breakdowns&nbsp;📊. Follow Brett (<a href="https://twitter.com/nonrandomalpha">@nonrandomalpha</a>), Zach (<a href="https://twitter.com/BetKarmaZach">@betkarmazach</a>) and Corey (<a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24">@PICKSwCLARS24</a>) on Twitter&nbsp;🐦&nbsp;to catch their latest musings, actionable intel, and sardonic commentaries - you might even find a free premium play or two&nbsp;🚀🚀

 Each week of the NFL season I will assign confidence ranks to all Sunday and Monday games against the spread. When there are 15 games, I will rank each game from 1 to 15. Number 1 represents my most confident spread selection. Number 15 represents m

Week 14 ATS Confidence Ranks

Each week of the NFL season I will assign confidence ranks to all Sunday and Monday games against the spread. When there are 15 games, I will rank each game from 1 to 15. Number 1 represents my most confident spread selection, while 15 represents my least confident. The confidence ranks do not necessarily represent how I am distributing my bets.

Note: These are not the extent of handicaps, so keep an eye out on twitter and discord to see all my takes. Some of these selections were made earlier in the week and the line posted may no longer be available. Make sure to&nbsp;sign-up for the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium">Bet Karma NFL Premium package</a>&nbsp;to get exclusive access to our market-beating picks, props, and daily fantasy plays delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel.&nbsp;And as always, find me on twitter&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24">@PICKSwCLARS24</a>&nbsp;for all the fun and profit!

Season Recap (84-65-3)

#1 ATS: 5-6

#2 ATS: 5-6

#3 ATS: 5-5-1

#4 ATS: 7-3-1

#5 ATS: 8-3

#6 ATS: 8-3

#7 ATS: 4-7

#8 ATS: 6-5

#9 ATS: 5-6

#10 ATS: 7-4

#11 ATS: 5-6

#12 ATS: 8-3

#13 ATS: 6-5

#14 ATS: 4-1-1

#15 ATS: 1-2

<hr />
<hr />
I have included&nbsp;DVOA comparisons for each and every matchup this week. DVOA measures a team&#39;s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. Each statistic is ranked 1 to 32 for the 32 teams in the NFL, with 1 being the best, and 32 being the worst. I created an offensive grade that I give them based on each of the individual matchups pictured. This is something I love to look at on a week-to-week basis in regards to how the teams stack up vs. one another. But as always, there is a lot more that goes into my selection of games from week-to-week than just these rankings.

<hr />
<hr />
<h1>Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/12/05/rams.PNG" style="height:504px; width:600px" />

#1 ATS Selection: Los Angeles Rams -2.5

<hr />
<h1>Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/12/05/jets.PNG" style="height:504px; width:600px" />

#2 ATS Selection: New York Jets +8.5

<hr />
<h1>Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/12/05/colts.PNG" style="height:509px; width:600px" />

#3 ATS Selection: Indianapolis Colts -3

<hr />
<h1>Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/12/05/broncos.PNG" style="height:507px; width:600px" />

#4 ATS Selection: Denver Broncos +14

<hr />
<h1>Washington Football Team @ Pittsburgh Steelers</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/12/05/steelers.PNG" style="height:512px; width:600px" />

#5 ATS Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers -7

<hr />
<h1>Buffalo Bills @ San Francisco 49ers</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/12/05/bills.PNG" style="height:507px; width:600px" />

#6 ATS Selection: Buffalo Bills +1

<hr />
<h1>Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/12/05/eagles.PNG" style="height:505px; width:600px" />

#7 ATS Selection: Philadelphia Eagles +8.5

<hr />
<h1>New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/12/05/saints.PNG" style="height:510px; width:600px" />

#8 ATS Selection: New Orleans Saints -2.5

<hr />
<h1>New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/12/05/giants.PNG" style="height:502px; width:600px" />

#9 ATS Selection: Seattle Seahawks -10

<hr />
<h1>Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/12/05/bears.PNG" style="height:507px; width:600px" />

#10 ATS Selection: Chicago Bears -3

<hr />
<h1>Jacksonville Jaguars @ Minnesota Vikings</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/12/05/vikings.PNG" style="height:502px; width:600px" />

#11 ATS Selection: Minnesota Vikings -10

<hr />
<h1>New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Chargers</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/12/05/chargers.PNG" style="height:507px; width:600px" />

#12 ATS Selection: Los Angeles Chargers PK

<hr />
<h1>Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/12/05/titans.PNG" style="height:504px; width:600px" />

#13&nbsp;ATS Selection: Cleveland Browns +5.5

<hr />
<h1>Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/12/05/dolphins.PNG" style="height:509px; width:600px" />

#14&nbsp;ATS Selection: Miami Dolphins -11

<hr />
<h1>Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/12/05/ravens.PNG" style="height:506px; width:600px" />

#15&nbsp;ATS Selection: Baltimore Ravens -7

<hr />
<hr />
<hr />
Remember to sign-up for the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium">Bet Karma NFL Premium package</a>&nbsp;to get exclusive access to our market-beating, competitor-crushing managed Sportfolio picks&nbsp;🤑, delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel.&nbsp;Be sure to also listen to&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/TradingDeskPod">The Sports Trading Desk Podcast</a>&nbsp;📈&nbsp;on iTunes and Stitcher each week to hear our most salient handicaps, market insights, and Sportfolio performance breakdowns&nbsp;📊. Follow Brett (<a href="https://twitter.com/nonrandomalpha">@nonrandomalpha</a>), Zach (<a href="https://twitter.com/BetKarmaZach">@betkarmazach</a>) and Corey (<a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24">@PICKSwCLARS24</a>) on Twitter&nbsp;🐦&nbsp;to catch their latest musings, actionable intel, and sardonic commentaries - you might even find a free premium play or two&nbsp;🚀🚀

 Each week of the NFL season I will assign confidence ranks to all Sunday and Monday games against the spread. When there are 15 games, I will rank each game from 1 to 15. Number 1 represents my most confident spread selection, while 15 represents my

Week 13 ATS Confidence Ranks

Each week of the NFL season I will assign confidence ranks to all Sunday and Monday games against the spread. When there are 15 games, I will rank each game from 1 to 15. Number 1 represents my most confident spread selection, while 15 represents my least confident. The confidence ranks do not necessarily represent how I am distributing my bets.

Note: These are not the extent of handicaps, so keep an eye out on twitter and discord to see all my takes. Some of these selections were made earlier in the week and the line posted may no longer be available. Make sure to&nbsp;sign-up for the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium">Bet Karma NFL Premium package</a>&nbsp;to get exclusive access to our market-beating picks, props, and daily fantasy plays delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel!&nbsp;And as always, find me on twitter&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24">@PICKSwCLARS24</a>&nbsp;for all the fun and profit!

Season Recap (76-60-3):

#1 ATS: 4-6

#2 ATS: 5-5

#3 ATS: 4-5-1

#4 ATS: 6-3-1

#5 ATS: 7-3

#6 ATS: 8-2

#7 ATS: 4-6

#8 ATS: 5-5

#9 ATS: 5-5

#10 ATS: 6-4

#11 ATS: 4-6

#12 ATS: 7-3

#13 ATS: 6-4

#14 ATS: 4-1-1

#15 ATS: 1-2

<hr />
<hr />
I have included&nbsp;DVOA comparisons for each and every matchup this week. DVOA measures a team&#39;s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. Each statistic is ranked 1 to 32 for the 32 teams in the NFL, with 1 being the best, and 32 being the worst. I created an offensive grade that I give them based on each of the individual matchups pictured. This is something I love to look at on a week-to-week basis in regards to how the teams stack up vs. one another. But as always, there is a lot more that goes into my selection of games from week-to-week than just these rankings.

<hr />
<hr />
<h1>Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/20/chiefs.PNG" style="height:518px; width:600px" />

#1 ATS Selection: Kansas City Chiefs -6.5&nbsp;

<hr />
<h1>Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/20/falcons.PNG" style="height:513px; width:600px" />

#2 ATS Selection: Atlanta Falcons +5.5

<hr />
<h1>Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/20/titans.PNG" style="height:525px; width:600px" />

#3 ATS Selection: Tennessee Titans +6

<hr />
<h1>New York Jets @ Los Angeles Chargers</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/20/jets.PNG" style="height:525px; width:600px" />

#4 ATS Selection: New York Jets +10

<hr />
<h1>Cincinnati Bengals @ Washington Football Team</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/20/bengals.PNG" style="height:524px; width:600px" />

#5 ATS Selection: Washington Football Team -1

<hr />
<h1>Philadelphia Eagles @ Cleveland Browns</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/20/eagles.PNG" style="height:508px; width:600px" />

#6 ATS Selection: Philadelphia Eagles +3

<hr />
<h1>Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/20/panthers.PNG" style="height:506px; width:599px" />

#7 ATS Selection: Detroit Lions +2.5

<hr />
<h1>Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/20/steelers.PNG" style="height:509px; width:600px" />

#8 ATS Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers -10

<hr />
<h1>Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/20/packers.PNG" style="height:519px; width:600px" />

#9 ATS Selection: Green Bay Packers +2

<hr />
<h1>Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/20/cowboys.PNG" style="height:521px; width:601px" />

#10 ATS Selection: Dallas Cowboys +7

<hr />
<h1>New England Patriots @ Houston Texans</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/20/patriots.PNG" style="height:514px; width:600px" />

#11 ATS Selection: Houston Texans +2

<hr />
<h1>Miami Dolphins @ Denver Broncos</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/20/broncos.PNG" style="height:530px; width:600px" />

#12 ATS Selection: Denver Broncos +4

<hr />
<h1>Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/20/rams.PNG" style="height:520px; width:602px" />

#13 ATS Selection: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5

<hr />
<hr />
<hr />
Remember to sign-up for the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium">Bet Karma NFL Premium package</a>&nbsp;to get exclusive access to our market-beating, competitor-crushing managed Sportfolio picks&nbsp;🤑, delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel! Be sure to also listen to&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/TradingDeskPod">The Sports Trading Desk Podcast</a>&nbsp;📈&nbsp;on iTunes and Stitcher each week to hear our most salient handicaps, market insights, and Sportfolio performance breakdowns&nbsp;📊. Follow Brett (<a href="https://twitter.com/nonrandomalpha">@nonrandomalpha</a>), Zach (<a href="https://twitter.com/BetKarmaZach">@betkarmazach</a>) and Corey (<a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24">@PICKSwCLARS24</a>) on Twitter&nbsp;🐦&nbsp;to catch their latest musings, actionable intel, and sardonic commentaries - you might even find a free premium play or two&nbsp;🚀🚀

Week 11 ATS Confidence Ranks

Each week of the NFL season I will assign confidence ranks to all Sunday and Monday games against the spread. When there are 15 games, I will rank each game from 1 to 15. Number 1 represents my most confident spread selection, while 15 represents my least confident. The confidence ranks do not necessarily represent how I am distributing my bets.

Note: These are not the extent of handicaps, so keep an eye out on twitter and discord to see all my takes. Some of these selections were made earlier in the week and the line posted may no longer be available. Make sure to&nbsp;sign-up for the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium">Bet Karma NFL Premium package</a>&nbsp;to get exclusive access to our market-beating picks, props, and daily fantasy plays delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel!&nbsp;And as always, find me on twitter&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24">@PICKSwCLARS24</a>&nbsp;for all the fun and profit!

Season Recap (67-57-2):

#1 ATS: 4-5

#2 ATS: 4-5

#3 ATS: 4-4-1

#4 ATS: 6-3

#5 ATS: 7-2

#6 ATS: 7-2

#7 ATS: 3-6

#8 ATS: 4-5

#9 ATS: 4-5

#10 ATS: 5-4

#11 ATS: 3-6

#12 ATS: 6-3

#13 ATS: 5-4

#14 ATS: 4-1-1

#15 ATS: 1-2

<hr />
<hr />
I have included&nbsp;DVOA comparisons for each and every matchup this week. DVOA measures a team&#39;s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. Each statistic is ranked 1 to 32 for the 32 teams in the NFL, with 1 being the best, and 32 being the worst. I created an offensive grade that I give them based on each of the individual matchups pictured. This is something I love to look at on a week-to-week basis in regards to how the teams stack up vs. one another. But as always, there is a lot more that goes into my selection of games from week-to-week than just these rankings.

<hr />
<hr />
<h1>Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots</h1>

First off, the lookahead on this game was Ravens -6.5. The Ravens went out and won by 14 points despite being a short dog and the Patriots played a game vs the near-lifeless Jets that they should have lost despite being 10 point favorites. Now this line is only -7? This is a game I bet before the Patriots played the Jets on Monday night and I like it even more after seeing that game. This Patriots defense is bad and it shows up in the stats. We all know the Ravens like to move the ball via the run. How does New England stack up against the run? They are 31st in the league. Lamar is licking&nbsp;his chops. New England has a very forgiving pass defense&nbsp;that is allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt (worst in the NFL). This Ravens offense shouldn&#39;t struggle to score. On the other side of the ball, we all know the Patriots like to run the ball. They rank 3rd in the NFL via the run and 28th in the NFL via the pass. The problem for New England is that Baltimore boasts the #1 ranked rushing defense. Baltimore matches up really well with the Patriots. Their strengths are the Patriots&#39; weaknesses and they match any strength the Patriots have (rushing offense, coaching, etc.). The Patriots are coming into this game on a short week with their writing on the wall. They are not making the playoffs. If it wasn&#39;t for the &quot;New England Patriots brand&quot;, this line would easily be -11 in my opinion. Due to this, the Patriots have been the 4th worst team ATS this season at -5.19 average ATS margin per game. This team is a shell of themselves, meanwhile the Ravens are still a top 3&nbsp;(regular season) football team.

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/14/ravens.PNG" style="height:502px; width:600px" />

#1 ATS Selection: Baltimore Ravens -6.5/-7

<hr />
<h1>Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/14/rams.PNG" style="height:506px; width:600px" />

#2 ATS Selection: Los Angeles Rams -2

<hr />
<h1>Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/14/bears.PNG" style="height:497px; width:600px" />

#3 ATS Selection: Chicago Bears +3

<hr />
<h1>Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/14/browns.PNG" style="height:507px; width:600px" />

#4 ATS Selection: Cleveland Browns -3

<hr />
<h1>Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/14/giants.PNG" style="height:504px; width:600px" />

#5 ATS Selection: Philadelphia Eagles -3

<hr />
<h1>Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/14/panthers.PNG" style="height:508px; width:600px" />

#6 ATS Selection: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5.5

<hr />
<h1>Washington Football Team @ Detroit Lions</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/14/lions.PNG" style="height:499px; width:600px" />

#7 ATS Selection: Washington Football Team +4

<hr />
<h1>Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/14/steelers.PNG" style="height:503px; width:600px" />

#8 ATS Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers -7

<hr />
<h1>San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/14/niners.PNG" style="height:504px; width:600px" />

#9 ATS Selection: New Orleans -9

<hr />
<h1>Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/14/raiders.PNG" style="height:502px; width:600px" />

#10 ATS Selection: Las Vegas Raiders -3

<hr />
<h1>Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/14/bills.PNG" style="height:502px; width:600px" />

#11 ATS Selection: Buffalo Bills +3

<h1>&nbsp;</h1>

<hr />
<h1>Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/14/fins.PNG" style="height:508px; width:600px" />

#12 ATS Selection: Miami Dolphins -1

<h1>&nbsp;</h1>

<hr />
<h1>Jacksonville Jaguars @ Green Bay Packers</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/14/packers.PNG" style="height:499px; width:600px" />

#13 ATS Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars +14

<hr />
Remember to sign-up for the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium">Bet Karma NFL Premium package</a>&nbsp;to get exclusive access to our market-beating, competitor-crushing managed Sportfolio picks&nbsp;🤑, delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel! Be sure to also listen to&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/TradingDeskPod">The Sports Trading Desk Podcast</a>&nbsp;📈&nbsp;on iTunes and Stitcher each week to hear our most salient handicaps, market insights, and Sportfolio performance breakdowns&nbsp;📊. Follow Brett (<a href="https://twitter.com/nonrandomalpha">@nonrandomalpha</a>), Zach (<a href="https://twitter.com/BetKarmaZach">@betkarmazach</a>) and Corey (<a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24">@PICKSwCLARS24</a>) on Twitter&nbsp;🐦&nbsp;to catch their latest musings, actionable intel, and sardonic commentaries - you might even find a free premium play or two&nbsp;🚀🚀

Week 10 ATS Confidence Ranks

Each week of the NFL season I will assign confidence ranks to all Sunday and Monday games against the spread. When there are 15 games, I will rank each game from 1 to 15. Number 1 represents my most confident spread selection while 15 represents my least confident. The confidence ranks do not necessarily represent how I am distributing my bets.

Note: These are not my entire handicaps so keep an eye out on twitter and discord to see all my takes. Some of these selections were made earlier in the week and the line posted may no longer be available. Make sure to&nbsp;sign-up for the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium">Bet Karma NFL Premium package</a>&nbsp;to get exclusive access to our market-beating picks, props, and daily fantasy plays delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel!&nbsp;And as always, find me on twitter&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24">@PICKSwCLARS24</a>&nbsp;for all the fun and profit!

Season Recap (61-50-2):

#1 ATS: 4-4

#2 ATS: 4-4

#3 ATS: 3-4-1

#4 ATS: 5-3

#5 ATS: 6-2

#6 ATS: 7-1

#7 ATS: 3-5

#8 ATS: 3-5

#9 ATS: 4-4

#10 ATS: 5-3

#11 ATS: 2-6

#12 ATS: 6-2

#13 ATS: 4-4

#14 ATS: 4-1-1

#15 ATS: 1-2

<hr />
<hr />
This week&#39;s writeup will look a little bit different. I have decided to include DVOA comparisons for each and every matchup this week. DVOA measures a team&#39;s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. Each statistic is ranked 1 to 32 for the 32 teams in the NFL, with 1 being the best, and 32 being the worst. I created an offensive grade that I give them based on each of the individual matchups pictured. This is something I love to look at on a week-to-week basis in regards to how the teams stack up vs. one another. But as always, there is a lot more that goes into my selection of games from week-to-week than just these rankings.

<hr />
<h1>Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals</h1>

Let&#39;s look to fade Tua in just his second career start. Not to mention, in his first start he finished with a 25 QBR. I think Arizona comes in ready for this Miami defense and there is no way that defense will fluster Murray like it did Goff. This spread moved from Cardinals -6 to -4 after Miami played on Sunday. How? Go take a look at the Miami&#39;s boxscore last week and you&#39;ll see one of the most misleading finals if we disregard the Goff turnovers. Yes, turnovers are important, but I don&#39;t see Kyler struggling with the blitz packages that Goff did. I expect Arizona&#39;s #4 rushing offense to take advantage of the league&#39;s worst rushing defense. Huge mismatch there.&nbsp;

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/06/miami.PNG" style="height:314px; width:600px" />

#1 ATS Selection: Arizona Cardinals -4

<hr />
<h1>Chicago Bears @ Tennessee Titans</h1>

I think this is far too many points to be handing a top 10 defense going against a team that has struggled to get margin all season. Tennessee has beat the Broncos by 2, the Jaguars by 3, the Vikings by 1, the Texans by 6 in OT, lost to the Steelers by 3, and lost to the Bengals by 11. These wins have been anything but impressive. But now they are laying six and a half points vs. the Bears? I know Chicago is really beat up on their offensive line, but so was Cincinnati last week and how did that turn out? Also, to the Bears&#39; credit, Foles is a much better quarterback when facing a team that lacks QB pressure. Foles and the Bears covered and&nbsp;averaged 26.5 points vs the Falcons and Panthers, which are&nbsp;two weaker defenses. Foles has struggled vs. the Rams, Bucs, Colts,&nbsp;and Saints. These are all top 10 defenses. Where does Tennessee&#39;s defense rank? Additionally, Chicago&#39;s defense has been playing great football allowing just 20.8 ppg.&nbsp;

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/06/titans.PNG" style="height:315px; width:600px" />

#2 ATS Selection: Chicago Bears +6.5

<hr />
<h1>Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts</h1>

This seems like the ultimate buy low and sell high spot for these two teams. The Ravens are coming off a disappointing loss to the Steelers in which they outgained them by over 200 yards, and the Colts coming off a blowout win vs the Lions.&nbsp;Yes, Baltimore is beat up and struggling with Covid-19, but I don&#39;t think it&#39;s as bad as some want to believe. Their banged up offensive line may actually force Lamar to do more with his legs which is easily his biggest strength. Many handicappers will tell you how great the Colts stats look defensively, but who have they played? The Jaguars, Vikings, Jets, Bears, Browns, Bengals, and Lions. Do you see a top 10 team there? I definitely see a couple bottom 10 teams. I expect the Ravens to bounce back while the Colts may be looking ahead to a very important game vs the Titans on Thursday night.&nbsp;

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/06/ravens.PNG" style="height:302px; width:600px" />

#3 ATS Selection: Baltimore Ravens -1

<hr />
<h1>New York Giants @ Washington Football Team</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/06/giants.PNG" style="height:304px; width:600px" />

#4 ATS Selection: New York Giants +3.5

<hr />
<h1>Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/06/falcons.PNG" style="height:319px; width:600px" />

#5 ATS Selection: Atlanta Falcons -4

<h1>&nbsp;</h1>

<hr />
<h1>Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/06/texans.PNG" style="height:303px; width:600px" />

#6 ATS Selection: Houston Texans -6.5

<hr />
<h1>Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/06/chargers.PNG" style="height:305px; width:600px" />

#7 ATS Selection: Los Angeles Chargers PK

<hr />
<h1>Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/06/vikings.PNG" style="height:312px; width:600px" />

#8 ATS Selection: Minnesota Vikings -4

<hr />
<h1>New England Patriots @ New York Jets</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/06/jets.PNG" style="height:308px; width:600px" />

#9 ATS Selection: New England Patriots -7

<hr />
<h1>Carolina Panthers @ Kansas City Chiefs</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/06/chiefs.PNG" style="height:306px; width:600px" />

#10 ATS Selection: Kansas City Chiefs -10

<hr />
<h1>New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/06/saints.PNG" style="height:302px; width:600px" />

#11 ATS Selection: New Orleans Saints +5

<hr />
<h1>Seattle Seahawks @ Buffalo Bills</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/06/bills.PNG" style="height:322px; width:600px" />

#12 ATS Selection: Seattle Seahawks -2.5

<h1>&nbsp;</h1>

<hr />
<h1>Pittsburgh Steelers @ Dallas Cowboys</h1>

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/11/06/cowboys.PNG" style="height:311px; width:600px" />

#13 ATS Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers -13.5

<hr />
<hr />
Remember to sign-up for the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium">Bet Karma NFL Premium package</a>&nbsp;to get exclusive access to our market-beating, competitor-crushing managed Sportfolio picks&nbsp;🤑, delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel! Be sure to also listen to&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/TradingDeskPod">The Sports Trading Desk Podcast</a>&nbsp;📈&nbsp;on iTunes and Stitcher each week to hear our most salient handicaps, market insights, and Sportfolio performance breakdowns&nbsp;📊. Follow Brett (<a href="https://twitter.com/nonrandomalpha">@nonrandomalpha</a>), Zach (<a href="https://twitter.com/BetKarmaZach">@betkarmazach</a>) and Corey (<a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24">@PICKSwCLARS24</a>) on Twitter&nbsp;🐦&nbsp;to catch their latest musings, actionable intel, and sardonic commentaries - you might even find a free premium play or two&nbsp;🚀🚀

 Each week of the NFL season I will assign confidence ranks to all Sunday and Monday games against the spread. When there are 15 games, I will rank each game from 1 to 15. Number 1 represents my most confident spread selection while 15 represents my 

Week 9 ATS Confidence Ranks

Each week of the NFL season I will assign confidence ranks to all Sunday and Monday games against the spread. When there are 15 games, I will rank each game from 1 to 15. 1 represents my most confident spread selection while 15 represents my least confident. The confidence ranks do not necessarily represent how I am distributing my bets.

Note: These are not my entire handicaps so keep an eye out on twitter and discord to see all my takes. Some of these selections were made earlier in the week and the line posted may no longer be available. Make sure to sign-up for the <a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">Bet Karma NFL Premium package</a> to get exclusive access to our market-beating picks, props, and daily fantasy plays delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel! And as always, find me on twitter&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">@PICKSwCLARS24</a>&nbsp;for all the fun and profit!

Season Recap (55-43-2):

#1 ATS: 4-3

#2 ATS: 3-4

#3 ATS: 2-4-1

#4 ATS: 5-2

#5 ATS: 5-2

#6 ATS: 7-0

#7 ATS: 3-4

#8 ATS: 3-4

#9 ATS: 4-3

#10 ATS: 4-3

#11 ATS: 2-5

#12 ATS: 5-2

#13 ATS: 3-4

#14 ATS: 4-1-1

#15 ATS: 1-2

<hr />
<hr />
<h1>Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Rams</h1>

The Rams have the #1 DVOA ranked rushing offense and #1 DVOA ranked rushing offensive line. The Dolphins have the 32nd ranked rushing defense and the 31st ranked defensive line vs the run. This is as big of a disparity as you can have in the NFL.

Due to the expected rushing success, the Rams should see success in play action scenarios. Jared Goff and Sean McVay are at their best in play action so I think it will result in a high completion percentage. The Dolphins have two strong corners in Xavien Howard and Byron Jones but the Rams will be able to neutralize that strength with a lot of quick hitting routes over the middle and not as many throws downfield into coverage.

Although Tua may be looking great in practice, the quarterback change to him was not due to his performance in practice in my opinion. Hearing Fitzpatrick talk about the move and him saying he was shocked, sad, and hurt tells me that he was completely blindsided by the move. That is not what I like to hear coming from a quarterback that several players spoke openly about saying he was a fierce leader that the guys loved playing for.

This Dolphins team is 3-3. Having their best start to a season in years and arguably right in the mix of the playoff spot. Time to make a quarterback switch? This move seems to have been pre-planned for after the bye and that doesn&rsquo;t add confidence for me about Tua. Furthermore, the Dolphins are looking for a trading partner for their best corner and maybe best defender, Xavien Howard. Is this what a team looking to win does? Or rather is it a team that is still looking to rebuild? The writing seems to be on the wall and I question how some players may react to some of the moves being made. I totally believe the players will play hard for Tua but I have questions about the culture statements being made by the front office.

Tua is making his first career start vs one of the most dominant interior defensive lineman of all time, Aaron Donald. The Dolphins interior offensive lineman rank 20/36 at Center, and 49th and 67th out of 77 Guards. Aaron Donald is having another great year and I expect more pressure this week.

The Rams can be exploited more easily through the run than the pass. The Rams have a fringe top 10 pass defense and an average rushing defense. The Dolphins won&rsquo;t be able to capitalize on their average rushing defense. They have the 23rd DVOA ranked rushing offense and 13th ranked passing offense. And is anyone arguing that Tua will immediately be an upgrade to this passing offense? Additionally, Ramsey will be shadowing the Dolphins best wide receiver and playmaker DeVante Parker who leads the team in target share and air yards.

The Rams rank 1st in the NFL in yards per play margin at +1.1. The Dolphins rank 19th in the NFL at -0.1. Adjusted yards per play has the Rams #1 while it has the Dolphins ranked in the bottom 10.

I recognize this may be a tough situational spot for the Rams with all their recent traveling as well as coming off a Monday night game. I power rate this game at Rams -4.5 and I think the matchup advantages the Rams have heavily outweigh the situational spot.

Home Underdogs of 3 or more points coming off a Thursday night game or a bye are 1-19 ATS since 2016.

#1 ATS Selection: Los Angeles Rams -3 (-125)

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/10/30/donald.jpg" style="height:400px; width:600px" />


<hr />
<hr />
<h1>Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers</h1>

The lookahead on this game was Seattle -5. Yes, San Francisco dominated New England but San Francisco also lost several key starters to injury. And how good is New England? They&rsquo;re 2-4 and they just lost to the Broncos at home the week before. Seattle had 3 Wilson interceptions and they still were a first down away from covering vs the Cardinals. Seattle didn&rsquo;t look bad last week and they&rsquo;re only getting healthier on defense.

San Francisco is on a back to back road trip. Coast to coast from New England to Seattle.

The Seahawks defense ranks 9th vs the rush and 30th vs the pass. Seattle&rsquo;s defense is exploitable through the air. The good thing for Seattle is that San Francisco&rsquo;s strength is their run game in which Seattle ranks top 10 in defending. If the Niners want to beat Seattle through the air they&rsquo;ll have to do it without their #1 WR Deebo Samuel who got injured last week and is out.

The Niners are extremely volatile. They are 4-3 ATS and have ATS wins of 10.5, 11, 24, and 30 but ATS losses of 11.5, 13, and 34. We all know Russell Wilson seems to be a magician at times and keep every game close. So if this game is volatile, do we think it&rsquo;s more likely the Niners win by 10 or the Seahawks win by 14?

This is Russell Wilson&rsquo;s MVP year many people believe including Pete Carroll and the coaching staff. Do I smell a great bounce back spot? I think the Seahawks may have learned their lesson from their conservativeness late in the game last week. They had a chance to put the ball in Russell&rsquo;s hands to make a play but instead they ran it 3 straight times. Not to mention that Wilson had been tearing up the Cardinals secondary for most of the game. I just don&rsquo;t think they&rsquo;ll lay off the gas or let the game be decided by their defense quite so fast next time. I expect the more aggressive play calling we&rsquo;ve seen earlier this season to continue.

San Francisco&rsquo;s defense is really beat up and missing several pieces. Some would consider their defense to be a shell of what it was to start the season. They are missing several players on their defensive line as well as their secondary. I think Seattle is a team that can exploit these missing pieces much more than we saw the Patriots do so last week. The Niners have lucked out with their schedule facing the 3rd easiest opposing pass offenses.

San Francisco has shown a tendency to struggle with running quarterbacks like Kyler Murray in week 1. I think Wilson could have similar success against a now much weaker defense.

Seattle is 8-2 ATS off a loss the past 2 seasons and 18-7 ATS since 2015.

Russell Wilson is 11-4-1 ATS all time vs the Niners.

#2 ATS Selection: Seattle Seahawks -2.5 (-115)

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/10/30/wilson.jpg" style="height:400px; width:600px" />

<hr />
<hr />
<h2>Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers</h2>

#3 ATS Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5

<h2>Cincinnati Bengals vs Tennessee Titans</h2>

#4 ATS Selection: Tennessee Titans -6

<h2>Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings</h2>

#5 ATS Selection: Minnesota Vikings +7

<h2>Cleveland Browns vs Las Vegas Raiders</h2>

#6 ATS Selection: Cleveland Browns -2.5

<h2>Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots</h2>

#7 ATS Selection: Buffalo Bills -3.5

<h2>Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints</h2>

#8 ATS Selection: New Orleans Saints -4

<h2>Detroit Lions vs Indianapolis Colts</h2>

#9 ATS Selection: Detroit Lions +3

<h2>Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers</h2>

#10 ATS Selection: Denver Broncos +3.5

<h2>New York Giants vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers</h2>

#11 ATS Selection: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -12

<h2>Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys</h2>

#12 ATS Selection: Philadelphia Eagles -9.5

<h2>Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Jets</h2>

#13 ATS Selection: Kansas City Chiefs -19

<hr />
<hr />
Remember to sign-up for the <a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">Bet Karma NFL Premium package</a> to get exclusive access to our market-beating, competitor-crushing managed Sportfolio picks 🤑, delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel! Be sure to also listen to&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/TradingDeskPod" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">The Sports Trading Desk Podcast</a>&nbsp;📈 on iTunes and Stitcher each week to hear our most salient handicaps, market insights, and Sportfolio performance breakdowns 📊. Follow Brett (<a href="https://twitter.com/nonrandomalpha" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">@nonrandomalpha</a>), Zach (<a href="https://twitter.com/BetKarmaZach" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">@betkarmazach</a>) and Corey (<a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">@PICKSwCLARS24</a>) on Twitter 🐦 to catch their latest musings, actionable intel, and sardonic commentaries - you might even find a free premium play or two 🚀🚀

 Each week of the NFL season I will assign confidence ranks to all Sunday and Monday games against the spread. When there are 15 games, I will rank each game from 1 to 15. 1 represents my most confident spread selection while 15 represents my least c

Week 8 ATS Confidence Ranks

Each week of the NFL season I will assign confidence ranks to all Sunday and Monday games against the spread. When there are 15 games, I will rank each game from 1 to 15. 1 represents my most confident spread selection while 15 represents my least confident. The confidence ranks do not necessarily represent how I am distributing my bets.

Note: These are not my entire handicaps so keep an eye out on twitter and discord to see all my takes. Some of these selections were made earlier in the week and the line posted may no longer be available. Make sure to sign-up for the <a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">Bet Karma NFL Premium package</a> to get exclusive access to our market-beating picks, props, and daily fantasy plays delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel! And as always, find me on twitter&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">@PICKSwCLARS24</a>&nbsp;for all the fun and profit!

<h2>Season Recap (48-38-1):</h2>

#1 ATS: 3-3

#2 ATS: 3-3

#3 ATS: 2-4

#4 ATS: 5-1

#5 ATS: 4-2

#6 ATS: 6-0

#7 ATS: 2-4

#8 ATS: 2-4

#9 ATS: 3-3

#10 ATS: 3-3

#11 ATS: 2-4

#12 ATS: 5-1

#13 ATS: 3-3

#14 ATS: 4-1-1

#15 ATS: 1-2

&nbsp;

<hr />
<hr />
&nbsp;

Las Vegas Raiders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers


The Las Vegas Raiders come into this game off a bye. For most teams this would be a good thing and a reason you want to back that team. I&rsquo;ll argue that it&rsquo;s different for the team stationed in Las Vegas. Trent Brown tested positive for COVID earlier this week after it was rumored he was out and about on the Vegas strip for much of their bye week. It is also rumored that Trent Brown is a player who does not like to wear his mask and regularly does not wear his mask around other players. Regardless, the Raiders sent their entire offensive line home and they haven&rsquo;t practiced all week. The offensive line is a very important unit especially when they&rsquo;re about to face the #1 DVOA defense in the NFL. Even on the defensive side of the ball they&rsquo;re going to take a hit due to COVID. Star safety Jonathan Abram most likely will not play because he is listed as having contact with Trent Brown on Tuesday and most likely won&rsquo;t be cleared in time. That&rsquo;s a huge blow to a secondary that has struggled to stop any team&rsquo;s passing game. On top of that, the Raiders come into their bye week off a win vs the best team in the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs. The Raiders now sit at 3-2. You think they&rsquo;re fat and happy? Additionally, they have John Gruden as their head coach. The ultimate player&rsquo;s coach. I would be willing to bet that a lot of these players heavily enjoyed their bye week on the strip. Not only does Gruden seem like a player&rsquo;s coach but his team&rsquo;s performances after they bye week have shown it too. Gruden has coached two years with the Raiders and both years had convincing losses.&nbsp; In 2018 they lost 28-42 and in 2019 they lost by a similar score of 24-42. The Raiders as a franchise have even struggled off their bye going a miserable 3-14 straight up since 2003. I have my suspicions that this team used their bye week as a vacation and not as an extra week of preparation. On the other hand we have the Buccaneers coming off a dominating 38-10 win over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Could this be a letdown spot for the Bucs? I&rsquo;ll argue no. The Bucs already had a letdown spot just two weeks ago vs the Bears. That game from afar looks very similar to this week. Bucs -3/-3.5 on the road. I also think the Raiders are a far better matchup for the Bucs than the Bears were and I think the Bucs will remain focused like they were last week vs the Packers. Arians and Brady were extremely disappointed and frustrated after their loss to the Bears and I don&rsquo;t think they let themselves underperform like that again. Brady has one thing on his mind and that&rsquo;s a Super Bowl. The Raiders are a better team than they have been in the past but this is not a team you want to be dropping games too. I really believe the Bucs will remain focused especially after seeing the Raiders take down the Chiefs. Also to the Bucs credit, they were extremely beat up vs the Bears and they&rsquo;ll be much healthier vs the Raiders this week. In regards to their matchup vs the Bears, the Bears have a strong passing defense that didn&rsquo;t let Brady get anything easy. The Bears rank #5 DVOA. That&rsquo;s not the case with the Raiders, they rank 31st. Against the Raiders teams can dink and dunk all game long and it&rsquo;s shown on the scoreboard. The Raiders have allowed 30, 24, 36, 30, and 34 points this season. That&rsquo;s 6th worst in the NFL. I think the Buccaneers will find their points in this game rather easily especially if all three starting wide receivers are a go which it looks like they should be. On the other side of the ball the Buccaneers defense have only allowed 34, 17, 10, 31, and 10 points this season. The two 30 point performances were due to Brady pick 6&rsquo;s too. The Buccaneers still rank 8th in points allowed this season and are the #1 DVOA rated defense. The Raiders have not seen a top 10 defense this season so from a matchup standpoint I think this will be a whole different look for the Raiders offense. I&rsquo;m fairly confident the Bucs should see more success than the Raiders especially when they&rsquo;re dealing with COVID distractions. 

#1 ATS Selection: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/10/23/tom-brady-tb12-expansion.jpg" style="height:400px; width:600px" />

&nbsp;

<hr />
Los Angeles Rams vs Chicago Bears

#2 ATS Selection: Chicago Bears +6

&nbsp;

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns

#3 ATS Selection: Cleveland Browns -3

&nbsp;

New England Patriots vs San Francisco 49ers

#4 ATS Selection: New England Patriots -1.5

&nbsp;

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks

#5 ATS Selection: Arizona Cardinals +3.5

&nbsp;

Tennessee Titans vs Pittsburgh Steelers

#6 ATS Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5

&nbsp;

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

#7 ATS Selection: Los Angeles Chargers -7

&nbsp;

Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys

#8 ATS Selection: Washington Football Team PK

&nbsp;

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers

#9 ATS Selection: Carolina Panthers +7.5

&nbsp;

Houston Texans vs Green Bay Packers

#10 ATS Selection: Green Bay Packers -3

&nbsp;

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

#11 ATS Selection: Denver Broncos +9.5

&nbsp;

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

#12 ATS Selection: Buffalo Bills -10

&nbsp;

Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions

#13 ATS Selection: Atlanta Falcons -2

&nbsp;

<hr />
<hr />
&nbsp;

Remember to sign-up for the <a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">Bet Karma NFL Premium package</a> to get exclusive access to our market-beating, competitor-crushing managed Sportfolio picks 🤑, delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel! Be sure to also listen to&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/TradingDeskPod" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">The Sports Trading Desk Podcast</a>&nbsp;📈 on iTunes and Stitcher each week to hear our most salient handicaps, market insights, and Sportfolio performance breakdowns 📊. Follow Brett (<a href="https://twitter.com/nonrandomalpha" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">@nonrandomalpha</a>), Zach (<a href="https://twitter.com/BetKarmaZach" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">@betkarmazach</a>) and Corey (<a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">@PICKSwCLARS24</a>) on Twitter 🐦 to catch their latest musings, actionable intel, and sardonic commentaries - you might even find a free premium play or two 🚀🚀

&nbsp;

Week 7 ATS Confidence Ranks

Week 6 ATS Confidence Ranks

WEEK 4 ATS CONFIDENCE RANKS

Each week of the NFL season I will assign confidence ranks to all Sunday and Monday games against the spread. When there are 15 games, I will rank each game from 1 to 15. 1 represents my most confident spread selection while 15 represents my least confident. The confidence ranks do not necessarily represent how I am distributing my bets.

Note: These are not my entire handicaps so keep an eye out on twitter and discord to see all my takes. Some of these selections were made earlier in the week and the line posted may no longer be available. Make sure to sign-up for the <a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">Bet Karma NFL Premium package</a> to get exclusive access to our market-beating picks, props, and daily fantasy plays delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel! And as always, find me on twitter&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">@PICKSwCLARS24</a>&nbsp;for all the fun and profit!

Week 3 Recap: In my article last week I predicted Week 3 to be a very challenging week. It definitely lived up to expectation. I am now 22-22-1 on all selections but 11-7 on my top 6 plays each week.

Season Recap:

#1 ATS: 1-2

#2 ATS: 1-2

#3 ATS: 1-2

#4 ATS: 3-0

#5 ATS: 2-1

#6 ATS: 3-0

#7 ATS: 1-2

#8 ATS: 0-3

#9 ATS: 1-2

#10 ATS: 2-1

#11 ATS: 2-1

#12 ATS: 2-1

#13 ATS: 1-2

#14 ATS: 1-1-1

#15 ATS: 1-2

<hr />
Due to some time constraints this week I will be starting with my 2nd ranked game.&nbsp;

2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Miami Dolphins vs Seattle Seahawks

Seattle comes into this game undefeated after wins versus Atlanta, New England, and Dallas. Things are clicking in Seattle and the change of play-calling from a run focused offense to a pass focused offense has paid dividends. And honestly it is to no surprise to a lot of us as they do have Russell Wilson. On the other hand, Miami comes in after losses to New England and Buffalo followed up by a win versus Jacksonville. At 1-2 it seems like the Dolphins are meeting most people&rsquo;s expectations through 3 games this season. Seattle is trending upward quickly but I think this may be a spot to sell high. Here&rsquo;s why. Seattle comes into this game at 3-0 but they actually own a negative yards per play margin. Seattle&rsquo;s offense has been phenomenal averaging 6.5 yards per play but their defense has been even less phenomenal allowing 6.6 yards per play. That&rsquo;s good for 18th best in the league. Additionally, their defense is ranked 23rd in DVOA and 29th vs the pass. Now I&rsquo;m not acting like Seattle isn&rsquo;t good but I am hinting to the fact they may be overvalued in the market place at this point. Especially considering the fact that TWENTY-FIVE players were on their injury report on Wednesday. I do realize a good amount of these players will play but at 100%? Two key players that most likely won&rsquo;t play are Jamal Adams and Quinton Dunbar. This is only another hit to a pass defense that is already 29th in the league. Now when we look at Miami we see a team that has only beat the Jaguars. But how did they do versus two playoff teams in the Patriots and Bills? Well they traveled to Foxborough Week 1 and actually played New England pretty close if it weren&rsquo;t for three Fitzpatrick interceptions, one of which was in the end zone in attempt to cover the game late. Then vs Buffalo they actually were winning late in the 4th quarter. Both New England and Buffalo have exceeded expectations to open this season so competitive games by Miami actually look better than they did at the time. And here&rsquo;s why I think Miami may actually be underrated. One of the things I mentioned preseason was that Miami spent the most money of all time in free agency ($237 million). So what should we expect from Miami as the season progresses? Well obviously improvement as continuity grows and players become more familiar with one another. They now have three games under their belt and I think they&rsquo;ve honestly improved each of the first three weeks. Could we see even more improvement in Week 4? I think there&rsquo;s a pretty good chance when you acknowledge the fact they have 10 days to prep for this game. Additionally, Howard and Fejedelem both playing in the secondary with the outside chance of Byron Jones returning is a big bonus when facing Russ. Seattle has to travel cross country for a 10am kick in the Miami heat (upper 80&rsquo;s on Sunday). Give Fitzmagic close to a touchdown along with Parker finally being healthy and I like them to stay within the number.

#2 ATS PICK: Miami Dolphins +6 (-105) **I highly recommend watching this line up until Sunday. I predict public money will come in on Seattle pushing this line closer to 7. If you wait and I&rsquo;m wrong it&rsquo;s not a very big deal dropping from 6 to 5.5 or 5 in this matchup.**<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/10/02/davanteparker.jpg" style="height:333px; width:500px" />


&nbsp;

<ol>
	<li>Chicago Bears vs Indianapolis Colts</li>
</ol>

Trubisky is gone and it only took three weeks! I believe Foles is an upgrade for this offense and it already showed last week. If it weren&rsquo;t for an overturn and a drop then Foles could have had four or five touchdowns in just about a half of football. The coaching staff has acknowledged it also. They said this week that having Foles at quarterback opens up a lot more of their playbook. Does this not give the entire team more confidence? They now will have an offense that is better equipped for any situation the game throws at them. Some people are calling the Bears lucky to be 3-0 and I can&rsquo;t say I necessarily disagree but I don&rsquo;t think that is overinflating this line. Despite being 3-0 and exceeding expectations (based solely on record), the Bears have actually stayed exactly the same in my power ratings. Yet, my power ratings still only make this line to be Indianapolis +1. My point is that I am not overreacting to their 3-0 record or the change to Foles. Indianapolis so far this season has faced the Jaguars, Vikings, and Jets. All three teams are in the bottom 8 of my power ratings. This is important because I think this line is being somewhat built on Indianapolis&rsquo; impressive stats. Indianapolis ranks 24th this season in yards per rush and 4th in yards per pass. Their passing looks superb but they&rsquo;ve faced three inexperienced and bad secondaries in Minnesota, NY Jets, and Jacksonville. The Colts have actually faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses and secondaries. How does Chicago&rsquo;s secondary stack up? Currently their pass defense ranks 4th in the league despite having to face Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford so far this season. Quinn, Johnson, Fuller, Jackson, and Gipson Sr. for Chicago&rsquo;s secondary are all entirely healthy and will pose a problem for Rivers who will be without two of his top three weapons. He already lost Campbell in Week 2 and will now be without Pittman Jr. This significantly weakens the Colts #1 strength so far this season. I also think the loss of Malik Hooker in the Colts secondary will prove to be a bigger issue as the season progresses. It didn&rsquo;t really show last week because they were facing the Jets, easily the worst team in the entire NFL. I also found a trend about undefeated teams that are an underdog at home in Week 4. Although the trend has a small sample these teams are 9-1 ATS. This is just a sign of disrespect to a team that has found a way to win their first three weeks. Let&rsquo;s not forget that the Bears defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano coached 6 years in Indianapolis before getting fired. This is a solid revenge spot with a coordinator who also has some familiarity with the opponent. He faced Rivers twice while in Indy only allowing 19 and 22 points. Looking ahead to Sunday&rsquo;s weather I see a 40% chance of rain, winds of 10-20 mph and temperatures in the 50&rsquo;s. Advantage Chicago or advantage to the dome team Indianapolis? Grab the points with Chicago in a game where points will be hard to come by making every half point that much more valuable.

#1 ATS PICK: Chicago Bears +3 (-110) **I don&rsquo;t mind a ML play here either. Make sure to monitor Khalil Mack&rsquo;s injury.**

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/10/02/nick-foles.jpg" style="height:250px; width:500px" />

<hr />
<hr />
<ol start="3">
	<li>Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons</li>
</ol>

&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; #3 ATS PICK: Atlanta Falcons +7.5 (-110)

&nbsp;

<ol start="4">
	<li>Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints</li>
</ol>

&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; #4 ATS PICK: Detroit Lions +4.5 (-110)

&nbsp;

<ol start="5">
	<li>Las Vegas Raiders vs Buffalo Bills</li>
</ol>

&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; #5 ATS PICK: Buffalo Bills -3 (-110)

&nbsp;

<ol start="6">
	<li>Washington Football Team vs Baltimore Ravens</li>
</ol>

#6 ATS PICK: Baltimore Ravens -13.5 (-110)

&nbsp;

<ol start="7">
	<li>Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars</li>
</ol>

&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; #7 ATS PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-110)

&nbsp;

<ol start="8">
	<li>Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals</li>
</ol>

#8 ATS PICK: Arizona Cardinals -3 (-115)

&nbsp;

<ol start="9">
	<li>Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots</li>
</ol>

&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; #9 ATS PICK: Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (-110)

&nbsp;

<ol start="10">
	<li>Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Chargers</li>
</ol>

#10 ATS PICK: Los Angeles Chargers +7 (-115)

&nbsp;

<ol start="11">
	<li>San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles</li>
</ol>

#11 ATS PICK: Philadelphia Eagles +7 (-110)

&nbsp;

<ol start="12">
	<li>Houston Texans vs Minnesota Vikings</li>
</ol>

&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; #12 ATS PICK: Houston Texans -3.5 (-110)

&nbsp;

<ol start="13">
	<li>Dallas Cowboys vs Cleveland Browns</li>
</ol>

&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;#13 ATS PICK: Cleveland Browns +4.5 (-110)

&nbsp;

<ol start="14">
	<li>Los Angeles Rams vs New York Giants</li>
</ol>

&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;#14 ATS PICK: New York Giants +13.5 (-110)

&nbsp;

Remember to sign-up for the <a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">Bet Karma NFL Premium package</a> to get exclusive access to our market-beating, competitor-crushing managed Sportfolio picks 🤑, delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel! Be sure to also listen to&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/TradingDeskPod" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">The Sports Trading Desk Podcast</a>&nbsp;📈 on iTunes and Stitcher each week to hear our most salient handicaps, market insights, and Sportfolio performance breakdowns 📊. Follow Brett (<a href="https://twitter.com/nonrandomalpha" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">@nonrandomalpha</a>), Zach (<a href="https://twitter.com/BetKarmaZach" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">@betkarmazach</a>) and Corey (<a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">@PICKSwCLARS24</a>) on Twitter 🐦 to catch their latest musings, actionable intel, and sardonic commentaries - you might even find a free premium play or two 🚀🚀

 WEEK 4 ATS CONFIDENCE RANKSEach week of the NFL season I will assign confidence ranks to all Sunday and Monday games against the spread. When there are 15 games, I will rank each game from 1 to 15. 1 represents my most confident spread selection whi

Week 4 ATS Confidence Ranks

 WEEK 3 ATS CONFIDENCE RANKSEach week of the NFL season I will assign confidence ranks to all Sunday and Monday games against the spread. When there are 15 games, I will rank each game from 1 to 15. 1 represents my most confident spread selection whi

WEEK 3 ATS CONFIDENCE RANKS

WEEK 2 ATS CONFIDENCE RANKS

Each week of the NFL season I will assign confidence ranks to all Sunday and Monday games against the spread. When there are 15 games, I will rank each game from 1 to 15. 1 represents my most confident spread selection while 15 represents my least confident. The confidence ranks do not necessarily represent how I am distributing my bets.

Note: These are only partial handicaps so keep an eye out on twitter and discord to see all my takes. Some of these selections were made earlier in the week and the line posted may no longer be available. Make sure to sign-up for the <a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">Bet Karma NFL Premium package</a> to get exclusive access to our market-beating picks, props, and daily fantasy plays delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel! And as always, find me on twitter&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">@PICKSwCLARS24</a>&nbsp;for all the fun and profit!

Disclaimer: My Week 1 handicaps will be significantly different and generally weaker than my handicaps as the season goes on. I tend to lean to technical handicapping and I see more success as the season progresses and more data and statistical trends become available. Week 1 is better bet prioritizing fundamental handicapping in my opinion. 

&nbsp;

<ol>
	<li>San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals

	<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
		<li>I don&rsquo;t see how San Francisco gets margin in this game. This will be Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury second year together so I expect some positive strides offensively, especially with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins. Even last year they moved the ball and scored 25 and 26 points vs the Niners.</li>
		<li>On the 49ers side of the ball, Garoppolo will most likely be without 2 of his 3 main targets from last season. Sanders went elsewhere and Samuel is injured and isn&rsquo;t practicing. In addition, rookie WR Brandon Aiyuk isn&rsquo;t practicing with a hamstring injury. Kyler Murray&rsquo;s elusiveness and mobility will help neutralize San Francisco&rsquo;s biggest strength, their defensive line.</li>
		<li>Arizona had the 10th and 11th ranked DVOA offensive performances last year out of the entire 512 game regular season vs the Niners. How the Cardinals run their offense schematically works very well vs San Francisco.</li>
		<li>A lack of a preseason and a bizarre offseason could show its teeth in the second half of games early on. I think offenses will see more success than usual due to defensive fatigue and a lack of crowd noise. I really like getting Arizona plus a touchdown in a divisional showdown. Even if Arizona struggles to keep it close, I really like the possibility of a backdoor cover.
		<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
			<li>#1 ATS PICK: Arizona Cardinals +7 (-110) </li>
		</ul>
		</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ol>

&nbsp;

<ol start="2">
	<li>Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

	<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
		<li>The Vikings arguably come into this season with zero positional group improvements. They&rsquo;re weaker on the defensive line after losing starters Griffin and Joseph. They replaced Joseph with Pierce but he ended out deciding to sit out the season due to COVID. Additionally, they&rsquo;ve had to place Danielle Hunter on the IR and they&rsquo;re without all 3 of their starting corners from last season. This cornerback group is young and inexperienced. Pair that with a weaker defensive line and that&rsquo;s not ideal when you&rsquo;re facing Aaron Rodgers.</li>
		<li>Offensively the Vikings lost their OC Kevin Stefanski as well as WR Stefon Diggs. They don&rsquo;t necessarily have a strong replacement so I think this offense could look like a shell of it&rsquo;s previous self.</li>
		<li>With the lessened effects of home field advantage I don&rsquo;t see how the Packers are catching a field goal in this game. Green Bay returns most of their roster from last year as well as their entire coaching staff. I think they might win this game outright.
		<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
			<li>#2 ATS PICK: Green Bay Packers +3 (-115)<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/09/11/3krpduz5xjf6hiq2xeny3fwun4.jpg" style="height:281px; width:500px" /> </li>
		</ul>
		</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ol>

&nbsp;

<ol start="3">
	<li>New York Giants vs Pittsburgh Steelers

	<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
		<li>How good do we think Big Ben is? Six points on the road week 1 for a quarterback who hasn&rsquo;t played competitive football in almost a year? Again, I think the lack of a preseason and the lack of competitive snaps for Big Ben may take a couple weeks for him to knock the rust off. We have to remember that he&rsquo;s 38 years old.</li>
		<li>This line opened around 2.5 and is all the way to 6 now. What has changed over that time? Yes, this line was probably off a point or two but I think the market is overreacting. We have to remember that Pittsburgh had the 32nd ranked offense last season. Big Ben will help improve that but how much in Week 1?</li>
		<li>The Giants revamped secondary is going largely unnoticed. This was by far their biggest weakness last year and I think we will see significant strides this season.</li>
		<li>I leaned to the Giants at +3.5 but at +6 I think you have to give it strong consideration. I realize Daniel Jones is a turnover machine and the Steelers have a stifling defense but that&rsquo;s a lot of points on the road for Roethlisberger&rsquo;s return. We also didn&rsquo;t ever see the Giants offense at full strength last season like we will this week. Who knows, wait it out and you may get a +7 come kickoff.
		<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
			<li>#3 ATS PICK: New York Giants +6 (-110)</li>
		</ul>
		</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ol>

&nbsp;

<ol start="4">
	<li>Washington Football Team vs Philadelphia Eagles

	<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
		<li>The Eagles are already starting off the season with injuries. Starters Hargrave and Barnett are banged up on the defensive line. Offensive starters Reagor, Jeffery, and Sanders are all also injured in addition to Lane Johnson on the line.</li>
		<li>I believe Haskins is better than most people think. He was thrown into a fire last year and was not set up for success. Down the stretch he looked better and I think that may bleed into this season. They are committed to him now. This offense will still look rough but it did manage to keep both games close to Philadelphia last year.</li>
		<li>For how bad Washington is perceived they actually have a strong defense. I make this game closer to Philadelphia -4 but with a banged up Philadelphia offense and a strong Washington defense the +6 becomes but that much more appealing. I think Washington will be a consistent bet on team when they&rsquo;re catching close to a touchdown with totals in the low 40&rsquo;s.
		<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
			<li>#4 ATS PICK: Washington Football Team +6 (-115)<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/09/11/https___wwwsicom_image_mtcymdy3ntc0nta5ndc5mtcx_chase-young-washington.jpg" style="height:281px; width:499px" /></li>
		</ul>
		</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ol>

&nbsp;

<ol start="5">
	<li>Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

	<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
		<li>From a pure power ratings standpoint, I make this game closer to Bills -8.</li>
		<li>The Bills return 88% of their snaps from last season along with their entire coaching staff. Whereas the Jets return only 6 offensive starters and 8 defensive starters. Additionally, they&rsquo;ll be without their two best defenders from a year ago, Adams and Mosley.</li>
		<li>What I&rsquo;ve been hearing out of the Jets training camp and practices has not been positive. Both the offense and defense sound like they still lack playmaking.</li>
		<li>This Bills roster is elite. Outside of Allen, it&rsquo;s easily probably top 5 in the NFL. If he made any offseason improvements and this offense starts clicking then Buffalo could be lethal. Even without Allen potentially improving, I don&rsquo;t think the Jets offense will look good at all vs this defense. They have a make shift offensive line right now and their best WR is Jamison Crowder. The Bills may only need 20 or so points to cover this game.
		<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
			<li>#5 ATS PICK: Buffalo Bills -6.5 (-110)</li>
		</ul>
		</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ol>

&nbsp;

<ol start="6">
	<li>Denver Broncos vs Tennessee Titans

	<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
		<li>This spread was Denver -1 before Von Miller went down. Now we&rsquo;re all the way to +2.5 after the news. Now I do realize Chubb may also be limited and those two are probably their best two defenders but I still think this is an overreaction. After all of this news, I have Tennessee 3 points better than Denver on a neutral field. It&rsquo;s important to acknowledge that power ratings do not take into effect individual matchups.</li>
		<li>I&rsquo;m going to sound like a broken record but with a lack of preseason reps and proper offseason conditioning for some players I think Denver&rsquo;s altitude will play an even larger role early on in the season. And not to mention, this game will be played at 9:20pm CT time for the Titans. Can they stay awake?</li>
		<li>I know both Chubb and Miller may be out but it&rsquo;s important to realize these two edge rushers are not super important when it comes to stopping the run, the Titans biggest strength.</li>
		<li>I am not buying into the hype of Drew Lock but I do believe this offense can do enough to keep this close. The over under on this game is at 41. If you told me this game will be played in the upper teens I&rsquo;ll grab the home team and the points all day. We saw an ugly 16-0 win for the Broncos vs the Titans in week 6 last year and I expect another low scoring affair this year. **Make sure to check Sutton and Chubb&rsquo;s injury statuses before betting this game.**
		<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
			<li>#6 ATS PICK: Denver Broncos +3 (-125)<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/09/11/drew-lock.jpg" style="height:333px; width:500px" /></li>
		</ul>
		</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ol>

&nbsp;

<ol start="7">
	<li>New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

	<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
		<li>The Patriots did not look good at all the second half of last season. I realize Belichick is a genius but I&rsquo;m having my doubts about them this season. They&rsquo;ve had numerous players opt out of the season and they still lack weapons for Newton. A reporter was quoted saying &ldquo;During camp in a limited scheme environment, Newton completed less than 60 percent of his passes, threw five picks, and took several would-be sacks waiting for someone to get open outside of Julian Edelman.&rdquo; I don&rsquo;t read into reports too much but this validates my strongest concern. Do I trust Cam Newton in his first game back with limited weapons to get margin? No I don&rsquo;t.</li>
		<li>My power ratings have this game closer to New England -5. Compared to the market, I&rsquo;m lower on the Patriots than most. We can&rsquo;t forget this is Belichick in Week 1 though.</li>
		<li>Miami has spent a ton of money this offseason in free agency and I honestly believe it was money well spent. This defense will look completely different. In a year where continuity will be important I&#39;d generally be more concerned but almost any change from this 2019 Miami defense is a good one.&nbsp;I see this game being jam packed with turnovers both ways so I&rsquo;ll take Miami and the points.
		<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
			<li>#7 ATS PICK: Miami Dolphins +7 (-115)</li>
		</ul>
		</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ol>

&nbsp;

<ol start="8">
	<li>New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

	<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
		<li>The more I look at Tampa&rsquo;s roster, the more I like it. They have an extremely strong run defense and a slightly above average pass defense. On the offensive side of the ball, they have Brady, a solid offensive line, and probably the best weapons in the NFL. I also like their coaching staff. Will they be clicking Week 1? Now that&rsquo;s the question.</li>
		<li>Sean Payton&rsquo;s Saints are known to struggle in Week 1. I don&rsquo;t have the ATS trends in front of me but they are far from glamorous. Last season they lost to the Bucs at home to open the season 48-40, the year before they lost to the Vikings 29-19, and in 2017 they lost to the Raiders 35-34. The Saints are actually 1-11 ATS and 2-10 SU in Weeks 1-2 the last 6 years. Could we see another slow start?</li>
		<li>My instincts tell me that Tom Brady is coming in extremely focused on this game. He finally has weapons around him and I think Tampa Bay truly feels like this is their season. Will Brees be distracted or anxious from all the offseason anthem talk? I&rsquo;ll take the field goal and a hook on a game I could see going either way. **Make sure to check Mike Evan&rsquo;s status before betting this game. He is probably worth around 1 point to the spread.**
		<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
			<li>#8 ATS PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 (-105)<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/09/11/brady.jpg" style="height:314px; width:500px" /></li>
		</ul>
		</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ol>

&nbsp;

<ol start="9">
	<li>Los Angeles Rams vs Dallas Cowboys

	<ul>
		<li style="list-style-type:none">
		<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
			<li>#9 ATS PICK: Los Angeles Rams +3 (-110)</li>
		</ul>
		</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ol>

&nbsp;

<ol start="10">
	<li>Carolina Panthers vs Oakland Raiders

	<ul>
		<li style="list-style-type:none">
		<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
			<li>#10 ATS PICK: Carolina Panthers +3 (+100)</li>
		</ul>
		</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ol>

&nbsp;

<ol start="11">
	<li>Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

	<ul>
		<li style="list-style-type:none">
		<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
			<li>#11 ATS PICK: Chicago Bears +3 (-120)</li>
		</ul>
		</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ol>

&nbsp;

<ol start="12">
	<li>Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts

	<ul>
		<li style="list-style-type:none">
		<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
			<li>#12 ATS PICK: Indianapolis Colts -8 (-110)</li>
		</ul>
		</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ol>

&nbsp;

<ol start="13">
	<li>Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks

	<ul>
		<li style="list-style-type:none">
		<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
			<li>#13 ATS PICK: Atlanta Falcons +2 (+100)</li>
		</ul>
		</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ol>

&nbsp;

<ol start="14">
	<li>Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers

	<ul>
		<li style="list-style-type:none">
		<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
			<li>#14 ATS PICK: Los Angeles Chargers -3 (-120)</li>
		</ul>
		</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ol>

&nbsp;

<ol start="15">
	<li>Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns

	<ul>
		<li style="list-style-type:none">
		<ul style="list-style-type:disc">
			<li>#15 ATS PICK: Cleveland Browns +8 (-110)</li>
		</ul>
		</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ol>

&nbsp;

Remember to sign-up for the <a href="https://www.betkarma.com/premium" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">Bet Karma NFL Premium package</a> to get exclusive access to our market-beating, competitor-crushing managed Sportfolio picks 🤑, delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel! Be sure to also listen to&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/TradingDeskPod" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">The Sports Trading Desk Podcast</a>&nbsp;📈 on iTunes and Stitcher each week to hear our most salient handicaps, market insights, and Sportfolio performance breakdowns 📊. Follow Brett (<a href="https://twitter.com/nonrandomalpha" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">@nonrandomalpha</a>), Zach (<a href="https://twitter.com/BetKarmaZach" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">@betkarmazach</a>) and Corey (<a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24" style="color:blue; text-decoration:underline">@PICKSwCLARS24</a>) on Twitter 🐦 to catch their latest musings, actionable intel, and sardonic commentaries - you might even find a free premium play or two 🚀🚀

WEEK 1 ATS CONFIDENCE RANKS

<h2>My 3 Favorite 2020 NFL Season Win Totals:</h2>

I want to start this article by saying it&#39;s important to make sure you understand your sportbook&#39;s rules when it comes to the 2020 NFL season. We have seen other professional sports miss games and it&#39;s important you know how your bets will be graded in a shortened/altered season. It may not make sense for you to tie up a lot of your funds in season long bets that potentially may never be settled. I have a book that has allowed me to bet almost all of my NFL futures on credit. This way I won&#39;t lessen my bankroll with bets that have a decent level of uncertainty pertaining to them. With all this&nbsp;being said, I truly believe the NFL will have a full successful season. Find me on twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24">@PICKSwCLARS24</a> for all the fun and profit!

&nbsp;


<h3>Detroit Lions Over 7 Wins (+100)</h3>

<ul>
	<li>This is a team that gets Matthew Stafford back. He&rsquo;s a quarterback who was on pace to be #2 in the league in passing yards and #1 in passing yards per attempt before he got injured. His replacements last season? Driskel and Blough. You can&rsquo;t look at last year&rsquo;s offensive numbers and make too many assumptions. Stafford is surrounded with weapons that suit his and Offensive Coordinator Bevell&rsquo;s style well. Stafford has shown to be a more aggressive QB in the NFL and he has weapons like Golladay, Jones, and Hockenson that all can make plays downfield. In addition, he has a solid possession WR in Amendola and a two headed backfield in Kerryon Johnson and D&rsquo;Andre Swift out of Georgia. If healthy, this looks like a very aggressive and explosive offense.<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/09/08/matthewstafford.jpg" style="height:285px; width:500px" /></li>
	<li>It&rsquo;s easy to look at their 3-12-1 record last season and think 7 wins is about right. Not so fast though, let&rsquo;s look at the 8 games Stafford played in:
	<ul style="list-style-type:circle">
		<li>Week 1: Cardinals &ndash; Tie 27-27 (up 24-6 in the 4th )</li>
		<li>Week 2: Chargers &ndash; Win 13-10</li>
		<li>Week 3: Eagles &ndash; Win 27-24</li>
		<li>Week 4: Chiefs &ndash; Loss 30-34 (up 30-27 in the 4th)</li>
		<li>Week 6: Packers &ndash; Loss 22-23 (up 22-13 in the 4th)</li>
		<li>Week 7: Vikings &ndash; Loss 30-42</li>
		<li>Week 8: Giants &ndash; Win 31-26</li>
		<li>Week 9: Raiders &ndash; Loss 24-31 (tied 24-24 in the 4th)</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ul>

The Lions played a pretty competitive schedule and went 3-4-1 with Stafford. They went 0-8 without him. And take a look at 2 of the games they lost: a competitive game vs the Super Bowl champion Chiefs and a 1 point loss to the Packers in Lambeau that was stolen by the refs. Stafford completely changes the outlook of this team.

<ul>
	<li>We&rsquo;re looking at a down year for the NFC North. The Packers were the most fraudulent 13 win team in NFL history, the Bears still have Trubisky or Foles at quarterback, and the Vikings lost and didn&rsquo;t exactly replace several defensive starters this offseason. On top of an easier division, the Lions have the 9th easiest SOS this season.</li>
	<li>This offseason the Lions focused on their main weakness from last season, their defense. They added Okudah in the draft along with Collins, Williams, Harmon, Shelton, and Trufant through free agency and trades. Several of these players are playmakers and this defense can only see improvement from 2019.</li>
</ul>

&nbsp;

<h3>New York Giants Under 6 Wins (-105)</h3>

<ul>
	<li>Hardest strength of schedule in the entire NFL in 2020. Notable games:
	<ul style="list-style-type:circle">
		<li>Home games: Cowboys, Eagles, Steelers, 49ers, Buccaneers, and Browns.</li>
		<li>Away games: Cowboys, Eagles, Rams, Bears, Seahawks, and Ravens.</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ul>

Underdogs in 13 of their 16 games. Of those 13 games, they are underdogs of 5.5+ points in 7 of those 13. The 3 games they are favored in are small lines too. The Redskins (-4.5), the Bengals (-1), and the Cardinals (-1).

<img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/09/08/daniel-jones-2-1.jpg" style="height:333px; width:500px" />

<ul>
	<li>Return only 66% of their snaps from last season &ndash; 31st in the NFL. They also have a new Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, and Defensive Coordinator. This is a season where continuity will be more important than ever due to a lack of a preseason and such a bizarre offseason.</li>
	<li>Daniel Jones is a turnover machine and easily a bottom 10 starting quarterback. This is a year where offenses might hold a stronger advantage than normal with the lack of crowd noise. I don&rsquo;t think that bodes well for Daniel Jones and the Giants. He was basically the sole reason the Giants had a -17 turnover margin last year in a season where they saw a significantly easier schedule. In addition, all 3 divisional foes arguably got better on defense.</li>
</ul>

&nbsp;

<h3>Minnesota Vikings Under 9 Wins (-105)</h3>

<ul>
	<li>As I mentioned with the Giants, continuity will be more important this season early on. The Vikings return only 68.7% of their overall snaps which ranks 5th worst in the league. Additionally, they have a new Defensive Coordinator and Special Teams Coordinator to get familiar with.</li>
	<li>The Vikings had turnover luck, injury luck, and field goal luck go there way in 2019. They recovered 5.3 more fumbles than expected based on average recovery rates and they were the healthiest team in the NFL. <img alt="" src="https://assets-betkarma.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2020/09/08/jea-2828-vikings-vs-buffalot1-e1537990709730.jpg" style="height:281px; width:501px" /></li>
	<li>The Vikings are a fantastic cover and straight up team at home in their new stadium. Since their new stadium was built, the Vikings have gone 21-9-3 ATS. This advantage the Vikings usually have will be neutralized in a season with limited to no fans.</li>
	<li>The Vikings lost a talented receiver in Diggs to the Bills and I honestly don&rsquo;t see an immediate replacement. They drafted Justin Jefferson out of LSU but early signs point to Bisi Johnson getting the starting role, a 7th round pick who had 31 catches in 2019.</li>
	<li>The Vikings defense will be without 5 starters from their 2019 campaign. They no longer have talented defensive lineman Linval Joseph and Everson Griffin. Additionally, Danielle Hunter has missed 12+ straight practices with an undisclosed injury. Now they did add Yannick Ngakoue but if Danielle Hunter&rsquo;s injury lingers at all they will really struggle on the defensive line. At corner they have even more turnover. They lost all 3 starting corners. Although&nbsp;Rhodes, Alexander, and Waynes didn&rsquo;t have stellar years, they&rsquo;re being replaced with a cornerback rotation that is made up of half rookies.</li>
	<li>I look at the Vikings roster by positional group and I don&rsquo;t see improvement anywhere. And that&rsquo;s coming off a season in which the Vikings were the healthiest team in the league but still only managed 10 wins.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>

&nbsp;

Remember to sign-up for the Bet Karma NFL Premium package to get exclusive access to our market-beating, competitor-crushing managed Sportfolio picks 🤑, delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel! Be sure to also listen to <a href="https://twitter.com/TradingDeskPod">The Sports Trading Desk Podcast</a> 📈 on iTunes and Stitcher each week to hear our most salient handicaps, market insights, and Sportfolio performance breakdowns 📊. Follow Brett (<a href="https://twitter.com/nonrandomalpha">@nonrandomalpha</a>), Zach (<a href="https://twitter.com/BetKarmaZach">@betkarmazach</a>) and Corey (<a href="https://twitter.com/PICKSwCLARS24">@PICKSwCLARS24</a>) on Twitter 🐦 to catch their latest musings, actionable intel, and sardonic commentaries - you might even find a free premium play or two 🚀🚀

 My 3 Favorite 2020 NFL Season Win Totals:I want to start this article by saying it&#39;s important to make sure you understand your sportbook&#39;s rules when it comes to the 2020 NFL season. We have seen other professional sports miss games and it&

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