WEEK 3 ATS CONFIDENCE RANKS

WEEK 3 ATS CONFIDENCE RANKS

Each week of the NFL season I will assign confidence ranks to all Sunday and Monday games against the spread. When there are 15 games, I will rank each game from 1 to 15. 1 represents my most confident spread selection while 15 represents my least confident. The confidence ranks do not necessarily represent how I am distributing my bets.

Note: These are not my entire handicaps so keep an eye out on twitter and discord to see all my takes. Some of these selections were made earlier in the week and the line posted may no longer be available. Make sure to sign-up for the Bet Karma NFL Premium package to get exclusive access to our market-beating picks, props, and daily fantasy plays delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel! And as always, find me on twitter @PICKSwCLARS24 for all the fun and profit!

 

I’m finding Week 3 to be the hardest week of the season to handicap so far. I will always prioritize quality over quantity so this week there will be fewer write-ups then most. Good thing is if you purchased the Bet Karma NFL Premium package then you already cashed Miami +3 on Thursday!

Week 2 Recap: We had another very profitable week in which we 5-2 on our top 7 plays! Check out below how each confidence level is doing so far this season!

Season Recap:

#1 ATS: 1-1

#2 ATS: 1-1

#3 ATS: 1-1

#4 ATS: 2-0

#5 ATS: 2-0

#6 ATS: 2-0

#7 ATS: 1-1

#8 ATS: 0-2

#9 ATS: 1-1

#10 ATS: 1-1

#11 ATS: 1-1

#12 ATS: 1-1

#13 ATS: 0-2

#14 ATS: 1-0-1

#15 ATS: 0-2

 

This week I will be starting with my 3rd ranked game. Check out the Bet Karma NFL Premium package to read my top 2 plays and more.

 

3.            Seattle Seahawks vs Dallas Cowboys

                Well I can tell you one thing, I expect a lot of points in this game. This game features two top 5 offenses along with two defenses who have struggled to get stops. Seattle is averaging 36.5 points per game while allowing 27.5 points per game. On the other hand, Dallas is averaging 28.5 points per game while allowing 29.5 points per game. Now let’s dig into the numbers a little. Yards per play (YPP) is one of my favorite statistics to monitor as the season progresses. Despite Seattle allowing less points than Dallas this season, Seattle owns the 4th worst opponent’s yards per play and Dallas actually owns the better YPP margin between the teams this season. Seattle is allowing 6.6 yards per play. This is comparable to Detroit (6.5), Las Vegas (6.7), Atlanta (6.9), and Miami (7.2). They are creating minimal resistance for opposing offenses. And where is Dallas elite? On offense. I know Dallas will get their points so this game will largely come down to if Dallas’ D can slow Russell Wilson. It’s not looking good when Dallas allowed 39 points vs Atlanta last week but not so fast. Dallas lost 3 fumbles and failed not one, but two fake punts in their own territory. Baffling. Having 3 lost fumbles and failing 2 fake punts in the same game is just crazy. Yet, Dallas still found a way to win despite almost nothing going there way (besides that onside kick ????). Dallas had 5 significant occasions where things didn’t go there way. Atlanta had 1 or 2. Now guess who played Atlanta in Week 1? Seattle. We have a common opponent in Atlanta. The difference in Week 1 was Seattle had everything go there way while Dallas almost had the exact opposite in Week 2. In Week 1, Atlanta was -2 in the turnover battle and they went 0 for 4 on 4th downs while Seattle scored a touchdown on their only 4th down attempt of the game. My point in all of this is that the betting market’s general perception of Seattle is probably higher than it should be and the perception of Dallas is probably lower than it should be. This creates value and we see that with the lookahead line at -3, the opening line at -4, and this line being bet up to it’s current number of -5. The market is on Seattle. After the first 2 weeks of play and injuries, I’ve seen a 3 point swing in my power ratings in favor of Seattle. Yet, I still only make this line around Seattle -3.25. Despite Dallas starting slow out of the gate, I think they’ll keep this game close with Seattle. They have the offensive power to go punch for punch and I don’t really trust either defense to get stops. I’ll happily grab the points in a spot where the backdoor will be wide open if we need it. 

#3 ATS PICK: Dallas Cowboys +5 (-105)