Each week of the NFL season I will assign confidence ranks to all Sunday and Monday games against the spread. When there are 15 games, I will rank each game from 1 to 15. 1 represents my most confident spread selection while 15 represents my least confident. The confidence ranks do not necessarily represent how I am distributing my bets.

Note: These are not my entire handicaps so keep an eye out on twitter and discord to see all my takes. Some of these selections were made earlier in the week and the line posted may no longer be available. Make sure to sign-up for the Bet Karma NFL Premium package to get exclusive access to our market-beating picks, props, and daily fantasy plays delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel! And as always, find me on twitter @PICKSwCLARS24 for all the fun and profit!

 

Season Recap:

#1 ATS: 2-2

#2 ATS: 1-3

#3 ATS: 2-2

#4 ATS: 3-1

#5 ATS: 3-1

#6 ATS: 4-0

#7 ATS: 2-2

#8 ATS: 1-3

#9 ATS: 1-3

#10 ATS: 3-1

#11 ATS: 2-2

#12 ATS: 3-1

#13 ATS: 2-2

#14 ATS: 2-1-1

#15 ATS: 1-2

 

I will be starting with my 3nd ranked game. Check out the Bet Karma NFL Premium package to read my TOP 2 plays and more!

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3. Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals

Down goes Dak and here comes Andy. The lookahead line on this game was Cowboys -3. After both teams played their games on Sunday this line opened back up at Cowboys +3 and has since been bet down to Cowboys +1.5. Is this an overreaction to losing Dak? Maybe. Dak has been on an absolute tear this year but Andy Dalton is the best backup QB in the league in my opinion. I definitely don’t think the adjustment from Prescott to Dalton is worth 6 points but it may be worth 4.5. Besides that, I still see some significant matchup edges in favor of the Cowboys at the current line.

The Cardinals come into this game on a back to back to back road trip. This is a pretty unique scheduling spot that most teams never see over the course of a season. The Cardinals not only have to deal with traveling three straight weeks but they additionally have to deal with all the covid distractions. Not only are road trips tiring but add on top of that all the precautionary steps teams are making and it only becomes that much more exhausting to travel.  

Does the transition from Dak to Dalton actually boost the defense? I’d like to argue it might. I think the loss of Dak will create urgency for Dallas’ defense. They no longer can rely on their star quarterback to just outscore what they allow defensively. The defense has been terrible so far this season but I think they’ll realize their performance is more correlated to the team’s success now that they’ll be weaker offensively. Somebody has to step up and I’d like to think it may be the defense. There should be no lack of motivation from this team as they still sit atop of the NFC East with a record of 2-3.

The Cardinals will also be without their best defensive player this week, Chandler Jones. He is now out for the season which is a massive blow to Arizona’s pass rush. Chandler Jones has an NFL high 97 sacks since he entered the league in 2012. He is both a leader and a valuable playmaker for this defense and the loss of his presence will be felt a lot more vs Dallas’ offense than it was vs the Jets.

Arizona’s scores this season may be somewhat fraudulent due to extreme red zone fortune both offensively and defensively.

Offensive Red Zone Attempts Per Game: 3.2 – 10th WORST in the NFL

Offensive Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 81.25% - 3rd BEST in the NFL

Arizona’s offense is creating little scoring opportunities but scoring at an extremely high rate. The league red zone touchdown percentage average is 61.45%. Arizona’s offensive output is not sustainable if their red zone attempts per game don’t improve.

Defensive Red Zone Attempts Allowed Per Game: 4.2 – 3rd WORST in the NFL

Defensive Red Zone Touchdown Allowed Percentage: 42.86% - 2nd BEST in the NFL

Arizona’s defense is allowing a lot of scoring opportunities but opposing offenses are struggling to score touchdowns. Again, this is not sustainable and their red zone touchdown percentage will only increase. All of these red zone statistics only make me think our overall perception of Arizona may be too high.

The last thing I’ve noticed about Kyler Murray is his performance when playing good defensive lines compared to bad. Murray is not a strong pocket passer yet and actually performs better when he is forced to make quick decisions or scramble. Here is his week by week performances.

Week 1: San Francisco. Great defensive line that was completely intact at the time. Kyler scrambled 13 times. 230 yards passing. 91 yards rushing. Cardinals impressive W.

Week 2: Washington. One of the best defensive lines in the league. Kyler scrambled 8 times. 286 yards passing. 67 yards rushing. An easy W.

Week 3: Detroit. Weak defensive line ranking bottom 10 vs both the pass and run. Kyler scrambled 5 times. 29 yards rushing. 3 interceptions. Lions only win so far this season. Cardinals L.

Week 4: Carolina. Another bad defensive line ranking bottom 10 vs both the pass and run. Kyler scrambled 6 times. 133 yards passing. Never a game, L.

Week 5: New York Jets. Dare I say it, an above average defensive line (probably the only thing above average about the Jets). Kyler scrambled 9 times. 380 yards passing. Easy W.

Kyler vs good D-lines: 3-0, averaged 10 carries per game.

Kyler vs bad D-lines: 0-2, averaged 5.5 carries per game.

Dallas is definitely a below average defensive line. Take that as you will.

I believe this game could look a lot like the Cardinals week 4 game vs the Panthers. Cardinals small favorites, a terrible opposing defense and a strong opposing offense. I think the Cardinals may be a little overrated in the marketplace so I’ll take the Cowboys in primetime.

#3 ATS Selection: Dallas Cowboys +2 (I also don't mind Dallas moneyline as well as Dallas in a 6 point teaser to +8).