Week 4 ATS Confidence Ranks

WEEK 4 ATS CONFIDENCE RANKS

Each week of the NFL season I will assign confidence ranks to all Sunday and Monday games against the spread. When there are 15 games, I will rank each game from 1 to 15. 1 represents my most confident spread selection while 15 represents my least confident. The confidence ranks do not necessarily represent how I am distributing my bets.

Note: These are not my entire handicaps so keep an eye out on twitter and discord to see all my takes. Some of these selections were made earlier in the week and the line posted may no longer be available. Make sure to sign-up for the Bet Karma NFL Premium package to get exclusive access to our market-beating picks, props, and daily fantasy plays delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel! And as always, find me on twitter @PICKSwCLARS24 for all the fun and profit!

Week 3 Recap: In my article last week I predicted Week 3 to be a very challenging week. It definitely lived up to expectation. I am now 22-22-1 on all selections but 11-7 on my top 6 plays each week.

Season Recap:

#1 ATS: 1-2

#2 ATS: 1-2

#3 ATS: 1-2

#4 ATS: 3-0

#5 ATS: 2-1

#6 ATS: 3-0

#7 ATS: 1-2

#8 ATS: 0-3

#9 ATS: 1-2

#10 ATS: 2-1

#11 ATS: 2-1

#12 ATS: 2-1

#13 ATS: 1-2

#14 ATS: 1-1-1

#15 ATS: 1-2

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Due to some time constraints this week I will be starting with my 2nd ranked game. 

2.            Miami Dolphins vs Seattle Seahawks

Seattle comes into this game undefeated after wins versus Atlanta, New England, and Dallas. Things are clicking in Seattle and the change of play-calling from a run focused offense to a pass focused offense has paid dividends. And honestly it is to no surprise to a lot of us as they do have Russell Wilson. On the other hand, Miami comes in after losses to New England and Buffalo followed up by a win versus Jacksonville. At 1-2 it seems like the Dolphins are meeting most people’s expectations through 3 games this season. Seattle is trending upward quickly but I think this may be a spot to sell high. Here’s why. Seattle comes into this game at 3-0 but they actually own a negative yards per play margin. Seattle’s offense has been phenomenal averaging 6.5 yards per play but their defense has been even less phenomenal allowing 6.6 yards per play. That’s good for 18th best in the league. Additionally, their defense is ranked 23rd in DVOA and 29th vs the pass. Now I’m not acting like Seattle isn’t good but I am hinting to the fact they may be overvalued in the market place at this point. Especially considering the fact that TWENTY-FIVE players were on their injury report on Wednesday. I do realize a good amount of these players will play but at 100%? Two key players that most likely won’t play are Jamal Adams and Quinton Dunbar. This is only another hit to a pass defense that is already 29th in the league. Now when we look at Miami we see a team that has only beat the Jaguars. But how did they do versus two playoff teams in the Patriots and Bills? Well they traveled to Foxborough Week 1 and actually played New England pretty close if it weren’t for three Fitzpatrick interceptions, one of which was in the end zone in attempt to cover the game late. Then vs Buffalo they actually were winning late in the 4th quarter. Both New England and Buffalo have exceeded expectations to open this season so competitive games by Miami actually look better than they did at the time. And here’s why I think Miami may actually be underrated. One of the things I mentioned preseason was that Miami spent the most money of all time in free agency ($237 million). So what should we expect from Miami as the season progresses? Well obviously improvement as continuity grows and players become more familiar with one another. They now have three games under their belt and I think they’ve honestly improved each of the first three weeks. Could we see even more improvement in Week 4? I think there’s a pretty good chance when you acknowledge the fact they have 10 days to prep for this game. Additionally, Howard and Fejedelem both playing in the secondary with the outside chance of Byron Jones returning is a big bonus when facing Russ. Seattle has to travel cross country for a 10am kick in the Miami heat (upper 80’s on Sunday). Give Fitzmagic close to a touchdown along with Parker finally being healthy and I like them to stay within the number.

#2 ATS PICK: Miami Dolphins +6 (-105) **I highly recommend watching this line up until Sunday. I predict public money will come in on Seattle pushing this line closer to 7. If you wait and I’m wrong it’s not a very big deal dropping from 6 to 5.5 or 5 in this matchup.**