Week 4 ATS Confidence Ranks
WEEK 4 ATS CONFIDENCE RANKS
Each week of the NFL season I will assign confidence ranks to all Sunday and Monday games against the spread. When there are 15 games, I will rank each game from 1 to 15. 1 represents my most confident spread selection while 15 represents my least confident. The confidence ranks do not necessarily represent how I am distributing my bets.
Note: These are not my entire handicaps so keep an eye out on twitter and discord to see all my takes. Some of these selections were made earlier in the week and the line posted may no longer be available. Make sure to sign-up for the Bet Karma NFL Premium package to get exclusive access to our market-beating picks, props, and daily fantasy plays delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel! And as always, find me on twitter @PICKSwCLARS24 for all the fun and profit!
Week 3 Recap: In my article last week I predicted Week 3 to be a very challenging week. It definitely lived up to expectation. I am now 22-22-1 on all selections but 11-7 on my top 6 plays each week.
#1 ATS: 1-2
#2 ATS: 1-2
#3 ATS: 1-2
#4 ATS: 3-0
#5 ATS: 2-1
#6 ATS: 3-0
#7 ATS: 1-2
#8 ATS: 0-3
#9 ATS: 1-2
#10 ATS: 2-1
#11 ATS: 2-1
#12 ATS: 2-1
#13 ATS: 1-2
#14 ATS: 1-1-1
#15 ATS: 1-2
Due to some time constraints this week I will be starting with my 2nd ranked game.
2. Miami Dolphins vs Seattle Seahawks
Seattle comes into this game undefeated after wins versus Atlanta, New England, and Dallas. Things are clicking in Seattle and the change of play-calling from a run focused offense to a pass focused offense has paid dividends. And honestly it is to no surprise to a lot of us as they do have Russell Wilson. On the other hand, Miami comes in after losses to New England and Buffalo followed up by a win versus Jacksonville. At 1-2 it seems like the Dolphins are meeting most people’s expectations through 3 games this season. Seattle is trending upward quickly but I think this may be a spot to sell high. Here’s why. Seattle comes into this game at 3-0 but they actually own a negative yards per play margin. Seattle’s offense has been phenomenal averaging 6.5 yards per play but their defense has been even less phenomenal allowing 6.6 yards per play. That’s good for 18th best in the league. Additionally, their defense is ranked 23rd in DVOA and 29th vs the pass. Now I’m not acting like Seattle isn’t good but I am hinting to the fact they may be overvalued in the market place at this point. Especially considering the fact that TWENTY-FIVE players were on their injury report on Wednesday. I do realize a good amount of these players will play but at 100%? Two key players that most likely won’t play are Jamal Adams and Quinton Dunbar. This is only another hit to a pass defense that is already 29th in the league. Now when we look at Miami we see a team that has only beat the Jaguars. But how did they do versus two playoff teams in the Patriots and Bills? Well they traveled to Foxborough Week 1 and actually played New England pretty close if it weren’t for three Fitzpatrick interceptions, one of which was in the end zone in attempt to cover the game late. Then vs Buffalo they actually were winning late in the 4th quarter. Both New England and Buffalo have exceeded expectations to open this season so competitive games by Miami actually look better than they did at the time. And here’s why I think Miami may actually be underrated. One of the things I mentioned preseason was that Miami spent the most money of all time in free agency ($237 million). So what should we expect from Miami as the season progresses? Well obviously improvement as continuity grows and players become more familiar with one another. They now have three games under their belt and I think they’ve honestly improved each of the first three weeks. Could we see even more improvement in Week 4? I think there’s a pretty good chance when you acknowledge the fact they have 10 days to prep for this game. Additionally, Howard and Fejedelem both playing in the secondary with the outside chance of Byron Jones returning is a big bonus when facing Russ. Seattle has to travel cross country for a 10am kick in the Miami heat (upper 80’s on Sunday). Give Fitzmagic close to a touchdown along with Parker finally being healthy and I like them to stay within the number.
#2 ATS PICK: Miami Dolphins +6 (-105) **I highly recommend watching this line up until Sunday. I predict public money will come in on Seattle pushing this line closer to 7. If you wait and I’m wrong it’s not a very big deal dropping from 6 to 5.5 or 5 in this matchup.**
Trubisky is gone and it only took three weeks! I believe Foles is an upgrade for this offense and it already showed last week. If it weren’t for an overturn and a drop then Foles could have had four or five touchdowns in just about a half of football. The coaching staff has acknowledged it also. They said this week that having Foles at quarterback opens up a lot more of their playbook. Does this not give the entire team more confidence? They now will have an offense that is better equipped for any situation the game throws at them. Some people are calling the Bears lucky to be 3-0 and I can’t say I necessarily disagree but I don’t think that is overinflating this line. Despite being 3-0 and exceeding expectations (based solely on record), the Bears have actually stayed exactly the same in my power ratings. Yet, my power ratings still only make this line to be Indianapolis +1. My point is that I am not overreacting to their 3-0 record or the change to Foles. Indianapolis so far this season has faced the Jaguars, Vikings, and Jets. All three teams are in the bottom 8 of my power ratings. This is important because I think this line is being somewhat built on Indianapolis’ impressive stats. Indianapolis ranks 24th this season in yards per rush and 4th in yards per pass. Their passing looks superb but they’ve faced three inexperienced and bad secondaries in Minnesota, NY Jets, and Jacksonville. The Colts have actually faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses and secondaries. How does Chicago’s secondary stack up? Currently their pass defense ranks 4th in the league despite having to face Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford so far this season. Quinn, Johnson, Fuller, Jackson, and Gipson Sr. for Chicago’s secondary are all entirely healthy and will pose a problem for Rivers who will be without two of his top three weapons. He already lost Campbell in Week 2 and will now be without Pittman Jr. This significantly weakens the Colts #1 strength so far this season. I also think the loss of Malik Hooker in the Colts secondary will prove to be a bigger issue as the season progresses. It didn’t really show last week because they were facing the Jets, easily the worst team in the entire NFL. I also found a trend about undefeated teams that are an underdog at home in Week 4. Although the trend has a small sample these teams are 9-1 ATS. This is just a sign of disrespect to a team that has found a way to win their first three weeks. Let’s not forget that the Bears defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano coached 6 years in Indianapolis before getting fired. This is a solid revenge spot with a coordinator who also has some familiarity with the opponent. He faced Rivers twice while in Indy only allowing 19 and 22 points. Looking ahead to Sunday’s weather I see a 40% chance of rain, winds of 10-20 mph and temperatures in the 50’s. Advantage Chicago or advantage to the dome team Indianapolis? Grab the points with Chicago in a game where points will be hard to come by making every half point that much more valuable.
#1 ATS PICK: Chicago Bears +3 (-110) **I don’t mind a ML play here either. Make sure to monitor Khalil Mack’s injury.**
#3 ATS PICK: Atlanta Falcons +7.5 (-110)
#4 ATS PICK: Detroit Lions +4.5 (-110)
#5 ATS PICK: Buffalo Bills -3 (-110)
#6 ATS PICK: Baltimore Ravens -13.5 (-110)
#7 ATS PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-110)
#8 ATS PICK: Arizona Cardinals -3 (-115)
#9 ATS PICK: Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (-110)
#10 ATS PICK: Los Angeles Chargers +7 (-115)
#11 ATS PICK: Philadelphia Eagles +7 (-110)
#12 ATS PICK: Houston Texans -3.5 (-110)
#13 ATS PICK: Cleveland Browns +4.5 (-110)
#14 ATS PICK: New York Giants +13.5 (-110)
Remember to sign-up for the Bet Karma NFL Premium package to get exclusive access to our market-beating, competitor-crushing managed Sportfolio picks 🤑, delivered in real-time and posted in our premium Discord channel! Be sure to also listen to The Sports Trading Desk Podcast 📈 on iTunes and Stitcher each week to hear our most salient handicaps, market insights, and Sportfolio performance breakdowns 📊. Follow Brett (@nonrandomalpha), Zach (@betkarmazach) and Corey (@PICKSwCLARS24) on Twitter 🐦 to catch their latest musings, actionable intel, and sardonic commentaries - you might even find a free premium play or two 🚀🚀