Steven's PGA Bets: The Arnold Palmer Invitational

Make that two weeks in a row that we have hit on the outright winner! Last week Colin Morikawa was our first outright bet suggested at 46-1 odds and he prevailed over the field relatively easy compared to Max Homa’s win two weeks ago that we also alerted in BetKarma. We also hit three of the four head-to-head matchups.

 

This week the Tour moves to historic Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The field is not as strong as it has been in the past since the Players Championship is next week. Should still be an exciting tournament with plenty of good golfers in the field.

 

 

Arnold Palmer Invitational

Course: Bay Hill

Length: 7,454 yards

Par: 72

Greens: Bermuda

Defending Champion: Tyrell Hatton

Purse: $9.3 Million

FedEx Cup Points: 550 Points to the winner

Key Stats: SG Approach, Opportunities Gained, Birdie-or-Better, Proximity 200+, SG Par 5

 

Cam Davis | Outright +8000 (1 Unit), Top 20 +300 (2 Units)

 

Admittedly, I am not too familiar with Cam Davis. However, my model ranks him first and he ranks inside the Top 10 of all but one key stat including first in BoB Percentage and third in SG Par 5. From my research, I do not see that he has ever competed at Bay Hill but his stats and odds are hard to over look at 80-1. Especially in a field where maybe some of the top golfers are already looking forward to the Player next week. I’ll put a wager on an outright as well as a Top 20 finish.

 

Sam Burns | Outright +4500 (1 Unit)

 

AC has been on this guy since last week in the Premium Golf Discord chat and for good reason. Burns has made the cut in his last four starts including a solo 3rd place finish at the Genesis in his most recent start. He ranks second in my model by ranking first in Opportunities gained, second in SG Par 5s, and fifth in Birdie-or-Better percentage. He has made the cut here in his last three appearances but hasn’t finished better than T-36 last year. However, the field is a little weaker this week and Burns is playing at a higher level than he has in quite some time.

 

Viktor Hovland | Outright +1200 (1 Unit), Top 5 +275 (1 Unit)

 

When I look for value bets I tend to stay away from the guys at the top just because of the odds that you typically get at that level. But Hovland could have won the tournament last week if it wasn’t for a quadruple bogey and a few other bad holes. He has been playing at an elite level and ranks third in my model while ranking in the top 20 in all key stat categories. At 12/1 in this field, I will have a wager on Hovland this week.

 

Other Outright Bets: Cameron Tringale (+9000) and Sungjae Im (+2500)

 

Henrik Stenson | Top 20 +500 (1 Unit)

 

Hasn’t been a popular guy to bet on in recent history but he has elite course history at Bay Hill. He has a five Top 10s, seven Top 25s, and only missed the cut twice in eleven starts. He hasn’t played on the tour in a while but, for what it’s worth, he is ranking first in my model in SG Approach and is inside the Top 50 overall in my model. At these odds to finish Top 20, I’ll take it.

 

Will Zalatoris | Top 20 +150 (1 Unit)

 

Going back to the well on this one. Barely missed a Top 20 finish last week but I think he gets it done this week. Ranks inside the Top 10 in SG Approach and Proximity and can take advantage of all four of the Par 5s. He has made the cut in his last five starts including three Top 20 finishes and just barely missing the Top 20 last week when he finished T-22.

 

Head-to-Head Matchups

 

Grace over Howell +100

Zalatoris over Molinari -120

Spieth over Rose -117

Hoffman over Bezuidenhout -112