Steven's Weekly PGA Bets: The Players
Well, we weren’t able to hit on an outright bet for the first time in three weeks. We did hit a Will Zalatoris top-20 finish at +150 as he finished T-10, as well as hitting on 3 of 4 head-to-head matchups.
This week the Tour will play the unofficial fifth major as TPC Sawgrass plays host to the Players Championship. The infamous Pete Dye Course is highlighted by the challenging 17th and 18th holes and will challenge the top golfers in the world as 49 of the Top 50 will be participating this week.
Course: TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course)
Length: 7,200 yards
Defending Champion: Rory Mcllroy
Purse: $15 Million
FedEx Cup Points: 600 Points to the Winner
Key Stats: SG Approach, Birdie-or-Better, SG Ball Striking, Scrambling (some emphasis on Good Drives Gained and Par 4 Scoring)
Justin Thomas | Outright +2000 (2 Units)
It feels like we have gone a little too long without JT having been in the mix on Sunday or winning a tournament. He has three top 15 finishes in his four starts thus far in 2021. However, he also has eight Top 15 finishes in his last nine starts dating back to last year including four Top 10s. He also ranks 1st in my model this week including ranking inside the Top 10 of three of the four key stats.
Russell Henley | Outright +12500 (1 Unit), Top 20 +400 (1 Unit)
Ranking 2nd in my model this week is Russell Henley ranking in the Top 7 in three of the four key stats. He hasn’t had much success in the past here at TPC Sawgrass but his stats and odds are too much to overlook. If Henley sticks to his game by keeping the drives in play and his approach shots on the green then there’s no reason he can’t be in the mix on Sunday.
Other Outright Bet Considerations: Xander Schauffele (+2000), Hidkei Matsuyama (+4000)
Hideki Matsuyama | Top 10 +450 (1 Unit)
Hidkei has a great all-around game that can make him competitive at any course. He was the first round leader last year after shooting an opening round 63 before COVID led tournament officials to cancel the rest of the tournament. He has finished in the Top 20 in his last two starts and is starting to warm up. He also has two Top 10 finishes at the Players—I expect to see the same here this week.
Will Zalatoris | Top 20 +600 (2 Units)
I hit this bet last week and I am doubling down this week. He has eight Top 20 finishes dating back to the US Open last September. More recently, he has Top 20 finishes in four of his six starts this year. He also ranks 14th in my model this week and is killing it SG Approach and Ball Striking over his last 50 rounds.
Other Top Finish Considerations: Abraham Ancer Top 5 (+1400), Cameron Tringale Top 20 (+500), Tony Finau Top 5 (+400)
Finau over Berger -120
Spieth over Morikawa +140
Cantlay over DeChambeau -103
Zalatoris over Im +105
Todd over Kirk -114