Steven's PGA Bets: The Masters

Master’s week is upon us and it feels great to have it back in April this year. A big story line coming into this week is the off-the-course situation with Tiger Woods and his car accident following the Genesis Invitational. It would have been great to see him be able to tee it up this week and compete for another green jacket, but we will have to wait until next year to see him at Augusta again. Jordan Spieth won the Texas Open last week which is the exact form I would like to see him in coming into the Masters where he has had a great, and not so great, history. There are plenty of high caliber golfers in the Tour’s first major of the year. It guarantees to be an exciting week!

Course: Augusta National Golf Club

Length: 7,475yards

Par: 72

Greens: Bentgrass

Defending Champion: Dustin Johnson

Purse: $11.5 Million

FedEx Cup Points: 600 Points to the Winner

Key Stats: SG Approach, SG Around the Green, SG Off-the-Tee, Greens in Regulation, Course History

 

Cam Smith | Outright +5000 (3 Units)

I’ve had an outright future bet on Cam for several months now and will continue to endorse him now. He isn’t exactly popping off the stat model but he has two top five finishes in the last three years and has finished T-17 and T-11 in his last two events which was the Players and the WGC Mexico—both were stacked fields. He loves putting on bentgrass and seems like a great opportunity for him this week.

 

Corey Conners | Outright +8000 (2 Units), Top 10 +400 (2 Units)

Ranking ninth in my model this week is the Canadian, Corey Conners. Ranks top ten in three of the four key statistical categories and had a top ten finish here last year. Recent form? Yeah, he has that, too. T-14 last week at Valero, solo seventh at The Players, and a solo third at the API. Great form, good tournament history, and popping in the stats—check. 80-1 odds seems like a steal here.

 

Other Outright Bet Considerations: Xander Schauffele (+2000), Shane Lowry (+10000), Daniel Berger (+3500), Colin Morikawa (+3300)

 

 

Sergio Garcia | Top 10 +450 (2 Units)

Sergio ranks tenth in my model this week and has won here before. He also been in great recent form playing well at the Match Play but also finish T-9 at The Players. I like the way he has been playing and has been conducting himself fairly well to Sergio-Standards in some frustrating situations that he has found himself in.

 

Justin Thomas | Top 10 +125 (2 Units)

One of the best and hottest players in the world. JT ranks fourth in my model which isn’t surprising. As long as he plays like he has been recently where he won The Players and had a T-15 at WGC Mexico, I don’t see how he doesn’t finish in the Top 10 here this year.

 

Head-to-Head Matchups

Schauffele over Reed -137

Todd over Fritelli +100

Conners over Scott -120

Smith over Casey -110

JT over Rahm +105