PGA Expert Picks: Valspar Championship

We are back at it this week after the team event last week at the Zurich Classic. It ended up being an exciting finish with Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen going to a playoff with Cam Smith and Marc Leishman with the latter prevailing victorious. This week is the Valspar in Tampa, Florida. Let’s take a look at some bets for this week.

Valspar Championship

Course: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead)

Length: 7,340 yards

Par: 71

Greens: Bermuda

Defending Champion: Paul Casey

Purse: $6.9 Million

FedEx Cup Points: 500 Points to the Winner

Key Stats: SG Around the Green, SG Approach, Good Drives Gained, SG T2G

 

Corey Conners | Outright +1800 (1 Unit)

I like the value here for Conners that checks all of the boxes here at Innisbrook. He almost went wire-to-wire back in 2018 before falling on Sunday, and finishing T-16. His last six starts have yielded four top ten finishes. Conners ranks fourth in SG T2G, fifth in SG Approach, fourth in SG OTT, and has great course history here as well.

 

Jason Kokrak | Outright +3500 (1 Unit), Top 10 +300 (2 Units)

Kokrak’s most recent performance at the Masters was a bit underwhelming but it was a major with a stronger field. I like Kokrak’s odd even with Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas both teeing it up this week in a weaker field. Kokrak is only a few weeks removed from a top ten finish at The Players and we get him this week at 35-1 odds. He ranks inside the top ten for SG Short Game, and top 20 in SG T2G, BS, and OTT. I like his value this week and will also being laying a couple of units on a top ten finish.

 

Other Outright Bet Considerations: Russell Henley (+3000), Viktor Hovland (+2200), Justin Rose (+3500)

 

Justin Rose | Top 10 +300 (2 Units)

I have rose in my other outright bet considerations. He has been playing well lately with a seventh place finish at The Masters and a T-11 last week at the Zurich Classic. I know that the Zurich is not a great indication of typical stroke play events but he still played well nonetheless and has three Top Ten finishes at Copperhead. His odds seem too good considering some of the caliber of golfers with shorter odds ahead of him.

 

Expert Picks

This week and moving forward I am going to include some of AC’s and Sam’s favorite bets for each tournament. For those of you that missed the action earlier in the tour season, AC hit five outright winners. Between me and AC, we have hit the outright winners in seven events this year. Be sure to join the Premium Golf Discord group for even more bets including matchups, first round leaders, and live bets.

 

AC’s Card

Abraham Ancer +3000

Jason Kokrak +3500

Charley Hoffman +4500

Keegan Bradley +7500

Lucas Glover +8000

 

Sam’s Card

Justin Rose +3500

Sungjae Im +2800