PGA Expert Picks: AT&T Byron Nelson
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PGA Expert Picks: AT&T Byron Nelson

Steven
05-11-2021

This week is the Byron Nelson. It's right up the road and north from where I live in McKinney, Texas at TPC Craig Ranch. This is the first year that the event will be played at Craig Ranch, so course history will not be as important or have as much weight this week. I may not have even broken 90 when I played here last summer so my input having played the course won’t help either. Although it is a new course, I still expect birdies and low scoring to be crucial. Historically, the scores have been low here even after the tournament changes venues a few years ago.

 

TPC Craig Ranch (@tpccraigranch) | Twitter

Course: TPC Craig Ranch

Length: 7,470 yards

Par: 72

Greens: Bentgrass

Defending Champion: Sung Kang

Purse: $7.9 Million

FedEx Cup Points: 500 Points to the Winner

Key Stats: SG Approach, Proximity, Par 4 Scoring, BoB Percentage

 

**Dustin Johnson has Withdrawn**

                                       

                                                                               


Outright Bets & Odds

Steven: Matthew Fitzpatrick +2100

Sam: Talor Gooch +8000


Top 10 Finish Bets & Odds

Steven: Erik Van Rooyen +700

Sam: Tom Hoge +900


Longshot Outright Bets and Odds

Steven: Doug Ghim +7000

Sam: Brandt Snedeker +7500


AC’s Outright Card

Scottie Scheffler +2000

Will Zalatoris +2800

Sergio Garcia +4000

Aaron Wise +6000

Keith Mitchell +6600


Matthew Fitzpatrick | Outright +2100 (1 Unit)

Fitz ranks 12th in my model and I like him this week as an outright bet. It seems like he has been close in recent weeks and competing on Sunday afternoons. Since January, he has finished inside the top 15 in five of seven tournaments that he has competed in with a T-18 at the Match Play. His worst finish is a T-34 at the Masters. He dominates on Par-4s and ranks inside the top 15 in BoB percentage. He is going to win sooner rather than later.

 

Tom Hoge | Top 10 +900 (1 Unit)

Sam is on Tom Hoge this week, and for good reason. Hoge ranks 10th in my model and is one of the leaders this week in SG Approach and Proximity. He has a T-25 and T-12 at RBC Heritage and the Valero Texas Open, respectively. No reason he can’t post a top ten finish this week and cash out some Bet Karma tickets. He has made the cut at the Byron Nelson the past three years.


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