Another week, another playoff. But this time, BetKarma was all over the winner as Sam had Cam Davis as his longshot outright winner at 150-1 odds! I also posted a two-unit bet in the BetKarma Premium Discord prior to the tournament on Jason Kokrak to finish 28th or better which also cashed out nicely for our premium users. We are looking to go back-to-back and have another profitable week as the Tour heads to Illinois for the John Deere Classic.
The course this week is TPC Deere Run and the tournament is the John Deere Classic which is notorious for sporting one of the weakest fields of the Tour season. Personally, my bank roll will be cut back a little this week but this is still a fun tournament where you can hit a few longshot placement bets. The course is not going to be overly demanding and birdie opportunities will be plentiful. Deere Run requires you to stick approach shots close after hitting the wide-open fairways. This will negate the requirement for having distance off the tee. Since it is a relatively short course, many of the approach shots will be hit from inside 150 yards were these pros will be spinning the ball to inside ten feet. The winning score could easily exceed -20 under par. In 2018, Michael Kim won by shooting 27 under par. Since 2014, the highest winning score was -18 by Bryson DeChambeau in 2017. Ability to score on Par 4s with the Par 71 setup is crucial this week and will be weighed heavily in my picks.
Course: TPC Deere Run—Silvis, Illinois
Length: 7,270 yards
Defending Champion: Dylan Frittelli
Purse: $6.2 Million
FedEx Cup Points: 500 Points to the Winner
Key Stats: SG Approach, Par 4 Scoring 400-450, Proximity 125-150, Opportunities Gained, SG Putting
Steven: Patton Kizzire +5000
Sam: Pat Perez +5000
Top 10 Finish
Steven: Doc Redman +750
Sam: C.T. Pan +700
Top 20 Finish
Steven: Satoshi Kodaira +700
Sam: Wes Roach +800
Steven: Satoshi Kodaira +15000
Sam: Keith Mitchell +10000
Russell Henley +1800
Seamus Power +3300
Aaron Wise +3500
Maverick McNealy +4500
Longshot Outright Dart Bets
Kyle Stanley +5000
Hank Lebioda +5500
Patton Kizzire | Outright +5000 (1 Unit)
Kizzire was a guy I was thinking of leading into this tournament and my statistical model backs up the premonition. He ranks third in my model and this just seems like the kind of tournament that a guy like Kizzire could win. I do wish his recent form was a little better coming in but he did post a T-25 last week after missing three straight cuts so he may be getting back on track. He also had a third place finish at the Charles Schwab challenge a few weeks ago in a similar strength field—this tournament will actually be a much weaker field that he can take advantage of.
Satoshi Kodaira | Top 20 +700 (2 Units), Outright +15000 (.5 Unit)
You may have noticed that Kodaira is my favorite Top 20 pick as well as my favorite long shot bet. This course sets up way too well for him to be at these kind of odds. I will be placing two units on him to finish inside the top 20 and may also be laying a Top 10 or Top 5 bet as well. This course sets up well for him and he has been playing well lately with a T-19 to his name at the Palmetto Championship a few weeks ago. While a few of the key stats could be better, he does rank inside the Top 17 in the field in proximity and strokes gained putting—I love those stats for this week.