Joey's MLB Pitching Prop Bets Thursday 09/30/21
What is up Karma Nation! Welcome back to another edition of my MLB Pitching Props Article. Last week we had success attacking Shane Bieber under 5.5 Ks at even odds against the Chicago White Sox. This was Bieber’s first game back from injury and was not expected to pitch more than three innings. He needed to be way too efficient and coming of injury that was a prop I loved. As always, I start my research out by checking the FREE Projections Portal on DFSkarma.com. This is one of the best FREE tools on the market to help with not only DFS but player props as well. Although, if you are looking for ease of mind to have us compare the books to our projections check out our premium tools. Tonight’s prop will be targeting a pitcher in his final regular season start as the Tigers take on the Twins on the road. This will be a battle between Tarik Skubal and Dylan Cease.
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Skubal will be making his final regular-season appearance at the mound tonight as the Tigers take on the Twins in Minnesota. Skubal has seen his pitch count limited over the course of September. Before these last four starts, he consistently saw five or more innings. Between the months of May and August, he pitched for more than 15 outs in all but one outing where he pitched for 14 outs.
Outside of his decreased pitch count, Skubal has been extremely successful at the mound this season. Prior to his last two games, he has pitched for four or more strikeouts in 22 straight games. The Tigers have managed his workload over the last month because they are out of playoff contention but expect the young 24-year-old to give it all he’s got against another team that is out of playoff contention; the Minnesota Twins.
Skubal will most likely see another 3-4 innings tonight that means he potentially needs to pitch at a rate of a K or more an inning. He has a 26.6% k% on the season. He is striking out righties at a rate of 27.3% and lefties at a little less 24.3%. On the season, he is averaging 1.1 Ks per inning which is 10 k/9 since that is the more popular way to introduce that stat. That puts him right on pace for the over if he can keep that season rate. Over the last four games, he is an even 13 Ks to 13 innings pitched this including two hard matchups where he went for two Ks and one K.
The matchup against the Twins tonight is much easier. The Twins feature seven righties and two lefties which is a plus for Skubal as he has a higher k% against righties compared to lefties. The lineup for the Twins has five batters with a k% above 25% against lefties. As well as two of the four batters with a K% lower than 25% at the bottom of the order, this includes the two lefties where I wasn’t expecting him to strike them out.
For plus money, I am willing to take the risk on Skubal’s over against a bad-hitting team for his last start of the season. Detroit will often limit their younger players at the end of seasons.
Tarik Skubal Over 3.5 Strikeouts +130 1.00 units to win 1.30 unit: