2022 NFL Futures - My Top 7 RB Season Props

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Today we’ll be looking at my favorite Running Backs season long props for 2022.  I love all seven of these bets, but I’ve ranked them from least to most confident for your viewing pleasure.

 

Check out my WR Season Long Props here!

Also, my colleague Ryan Broyles has his favorite RB props which can be found here:

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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7. Cam Akers (Rams) OVER 895.5 rushing yards (-115 on Draftkings Sportsbook)

Akers is a guy I like more than most.  He showed incredible toughness to return for last year’s Super Bowl run after a torn Achilles in July.  He performed well and I expect him to hit the ground running both literally and figuratively this season.  During his rookie year in 2020 he totaled a decent 625 yards on the ground while in a complete share of the backfield with Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown.  It’s clear he’s the best running back on a loaded roster.  I believe his talent will shine with a regular workload of 250 carries or more and he will be a 1,000-yard rusher in 2022.

6. Josh Jacobs (Raiders) UNDER 7.5 rushing TDs (-130 on Draftkings Sportsbook)

I’ve been anti Josh Jacobs for a couple of years now and I think he struggles mightily this season.  His yardage prop is right on the money at 750.5 and for a multi time 1,000-yard rusher I’m not willing to bet that under.  But 7.5 rushing TDs is something I don’t think he sniffs.  With red zone machine Davante Adams now wearing black and silver along with a healthy Darren Waller, I believe the Raiders are going to be throwing much more in goal to go situations.  Hunter Renfrow has proved he is a short yardage master as well which will hurt Jacobs.

The Raiders just cut veteran Kenyan Drake while I was writing this but keep in mind, they drafted Georgia running back Zamir White in the 4th round and through the preseason its clear they love what he brings.  Jacobs always seems to be dinged up, has never played a full season, and struggles against stacked boxes as it is.  Love this under.

5. Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys) UNDER 875.5 rushing yards (-115 on Draftkings Sportsbook)

There is nobody in the league I’m more down on than Zeke Elliott.  No, it’s not because I’m a noted Cowboys hater, its because I have eyeballs.  Over the past few seasons, he has shown true regression in all facets of his game.  He once was a power back who had finesse, a nose for the end zone and receiving ability.  Now, at age 27, he is on the downslope of his career seeing almost a full yard per carry decline since his amazing rookie season in 2016.  Nobody subs himself off the field more than Zeke and you don’t want to be on this over late in the season as he slowly jogs off because he can’t catch his breath.

Another reason I am on this under is because I love Tony Pollard.  I’ll get into that more in my next prop, but he clearly is becoming a better all around back before our very eyes.  The Cowboys will always be a passing oriented offense as long as Dak Prescott is behind center so don’t expect many 100-yard performances by Zeke, if any.

4. Tony Pollard (Cowboys) OVER 3.5 rushing TDs (-130 on Draftkings Sportsbook)

Like I mentioned above, I believe Pollard is establishing himself as the best running back on the Cowboys roster.  Predominantly only a 3rd down back entering the league, he has seen his carries jump by 25+ each of his three seasons.  His yards per carry were a whopping 5.5 last season and the Cowboys absolutely have to get him on the field as much as possible.  Last season you could tell they were giving Pollard full “Series” instead of just “Plays” here and there.  He also has breakout potential on any given carry.  I think he sores over the 3.5 rushing TDs prop easily and finishes with 7 or 8.

3. Devin Singletary (Bills) UNDER 5.5 rushing TDs (-130 on Draftkings Sportsbook)

My colleague Ryan Broyles likes Singletary and his rushing yards over and I could definitely see him topping that 750 number.  What I can’t see is him reaching 6 rushing touchdowns.  There are many factors here starting with competition.  Josh Allen is the best running QB in the league and is an absolute monster in the red zone.  He’ll be good for 6-8 TDs himself on the ground.  Then comes rookie James Cook and beleaguered Zack Moss who are breathing down Singletary’s neck for playing time.  Cook is the most talented in my opinion and could overtake 1st down snaps by Week 7.  Moss has a bit more power and could sneak some goal line carries if he's active.  They also have veteran Duke Johnson which I completely forgot about until today.

My point is, the Bills are LOADED with talent and will undoubtedly spread the scoring around.  Before scoring 7 rushing TDs last season, Singletary's previous high was two.  I feel he will revert back to the median and fall comfortably short of this TD prop.

2. D’Andre Swift (Lions) OVER 6.5 rushing TDs (-115 on Draftkings Sportsbook)

Watch one second of Duce Staley gushing over D’Andre Swift in Hard Knocks and you know this kid is about to explode.  Entering the always crucial 3rd year, Swift is positioned to breakout on an improving Lions offense.  Not many in the league are better in open field than Swift and with 13 rushing TDs in his first two seasons, I don’t see any way he’s held under 9 this year.  The only reason this prop isn’t #1 on my list is because he will certainly score TDs while on the receiving end which won’t convey on this bet.  However, I believe with his elusiveness inside the tackles he will only improve in the red zone and break some long scores as well.

1. Joe Mixon (Bengals) OVER 1,050 rushing yds (-115 on Draftkings Sportsbook)

I’ve been captaining the Mixon train for years now and finally the Bengals are good enough where everyone knows what he’s capable of.  Not only did Cincy ride an incredible wave to the Super Bowl last season, Mixon also tallied up career highs in rush attempts, yardage, and touchdowns.  Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins get a lot of the national love but Mixon is in many ways the heartbeat of their electric offense.  He has totaled over 1,130 yards in 3 of his 4 full seasons and in those early years, the Bengals STUNK.  Now with room to operate I truly believe he could lead the league in rushing and fly past this paltry 1,050 number the oddsmakers have levied on him.

 

Good luck everyone and tune in next time when we go over my favorite Quarterback props for 2022!

 

Written by David Costabile

Twitter: @davecostabile