2022 NFL Futures - My Top 10 QB Season Props

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Today we’ll be looking at my favorite Quarterback season long props for 2022.  I love all ten of these bets, but I’ve ranked them from least to most confident for your viewing pleasure.

 

Check out my WR Season Long Props here!

Check out my RB Season Long Props here!

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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10. Trey Lance (49ers) OVER 500.5 rushing yards (-150 on Draftkings Sportsbook)

We start off in San Francisco with exciting first year starter Trey Lance and his legs.  I just don’t see how in the world he falls under this rushing total number.  I think the oddsmakers are going to move it up 25-50 yards before the season starts but I would like it there as well. 

His game, the small sample size in college and the NFL, has been predicated on the danger he possesses on the ground.  He has the speed to turn the corner and the build to get physical with linebackers if need be.  The 49ers have one of my absolute favorites and one of the league’s most creative offensive coaches in Kyle Shanahan who I’m positive will maximize his strengths in the RPO sets.  Look for Lance to have Lamar Jackson like 100-yard rushing games and cruise over this number by early December.  

9./8. Jalen Hurts (Eagles) OVER 22.5 passing TDs (-115 on Draftkings Sportsbook) and UNDER 725.5 rushing yards (-130)

These two props go hand in hand when it comes to Jalen Hurts in 2022.  He was sensational on the ground last season, his first as a full-time starter in Philly.  Hurts carried the ball 139 times to the tune of 784 rushing yards. 

This was out of necessity.  The Eagles started off terribly and were able to right the ship when they remembered they have the best offensive line and running game in football. 

The team has had a tremendous offseason shaping their offense in a more complete way.  The addition of AJ Brown, the growth of DeVonta Smith, and the ‘prime to break out’ Dallas Goedert provides Hurts with weapons he hasn’t had before.  I believe Coach Nick Sirianni will run a much more balanced attack this season which should see Hurts’ passing TDs grow while his rushing numbers take a small dip. 

7. Carson Wentz (Commanders) OVER 23.5 passing TDs (-105 on Draftkings Sportsbook)

As always, Wentz and Hurts are mentioned in subsequent breaths. 

I have been through the gambit like most football fans with Carson Wentz.  One game he appears elite, possessing arm skill not seen by many in the league.  The next, he’s flailing in the pocket turning the ball over in crucial game situations.  One thing is for sure, he is certainly not boring. 

He knows this is his last chance to be an entrenched starter in the NFL after stays in Philadelphia and Indianapolis came to abrupt ends.  I believe he is going to answer the call this season and top his passing TDs number of 23.5.  People seem to forget that he threw for 27 TDs last year with efficient numbers because the Colts blew their playoff spot late in the year.

The Commanders have some really nice weapons in Terry McLaurin, rookie Jahan Dotson, returning tight end staple Logan Thomas, and one of the better pass catching backs in Antonio Gibson.  I think its safe to assume Carson can find a nice chunk of TDs with this group.

6. Jared Goff (Lions) OVER 3,700.5 passing yards (+105 on Draftkings Sportsbook)

When scaling the props for this article, I scrolled past Jared Goff twice before I really sat down and thought about it.  In every season with the Rams, he posted over 3,800 yards.  I get it, he isn’t in LA anymore with one of the best offensive minds ever Sean McVay.  However, there is a special feel about the Lions entering this season.

I’ve already discussed how much I love Amon-Ra St. Brown as a their #1 WR.  They also added DJ Chark from Jacksonville, drafted Alabama star Jameson Williams (who will start the season on the PUP list), have a perennial top 7 receiving tight end in TJ Hockenson, and a healthy D’Andre Swift who has shown how dangerous he can be in the passing game. 

I believe there is just too many ways Goff can claw his way back towards his Rams’ numbers in his second season as a Lion.

5. Mac Jones (Patriots) UNDER 3,950.5 passing yards (-110 on Draftkings Sportsbook)

I like Mac Jones.  I think he could easily end up as one of the more efficient QBs in the league in terms of accuracy.  Jones played all 17 games last season and finished with just over 3,800 yards.  So, in theory, he should improve in year two.  I just don’t know what to make of the Patriots offensively entering 2022.

They have been their typical cryptic selves in terms of who is going to call the plays now that longtime coordinator Josh McDaniels is in Las Vegas.  It sounds like it will be a mix of Joe Judge, Matt Patricia and of course Bill Belichick.  This is borderline unheard of in the NFL where there is normally one coach who does the play calling. 

Personnel wise, they did improve on paper with the addition of DaVante Parker on the outside.  However, all time scat back and receiving threat James White retired.  I just don’t see the Patriots striking much fear into opposing defensive backfields with Parker, Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne.  I also am high on the Damien Harris/Rhamondre Stevenson running tandem and feel they may lean on the run game more than airing it out with Jones. 

Only 10 QBs threw for 4,000 yards last year and even with a 17-game season, it remains a healthy amount to climb above.  I think there is too many question marks in New England to think Jones will eclipse this prop number. 

4. Kyler Murray (Cardinals) UNDER 4,050.5 passing yards (-110 on Draftkings Sportsbook)

Kyler Murray was dominant over the first half of last season.  The Cardinals started 7-0 and 10-2 before limping towards the finish and a first-round exit.  During that start, Murray was the odds-on favorite to win the MVP.  Unfortunately for him, after playing every game in his first two seasons, Murray got dinged up and missed all of November.

In terms of passing yardage, he was on pace for 4,598.5 yards.  So why am I taking the under? 

I think the Cardinals, head coach Kliff Kingsbury, and Murray were “figured out” at the end of last year.  Murray only eclipsed 300+ yards once after September and the Cards struggled to move the ball through the air consistently.  RB James Conner was fantastic in the pass game last year, but I believe he takes a step back this season.  All Pro WR Deandre Hopkins is suspended for the first six games of the year.  Murray’s former college roommate Marquise Brown has been added and will be a welcome target, but I do believe he will struggle as the #1 until Hopkins returns.

I think the only way to look at season long props is to assume every player you’re on will play a full season but that doesn’t mean its not floating in the back of mind that Kyler may miss a game or two.  I’m on the under.

3. Derek Carr (Raiders) OVER 29.5 passing TDs (-120 on Draftkings Sportsbook)

I absolutely LOVE the final three bets here. 

What’s always shocked me with Derek Carr is that he’s seen his yardage jump each of the last four seasons, but the TD numbers remain low.  Why is that? 

Other than Darren Waller, who have the Raiders had in terms of redzone threats?  As is well documented, the Raiders organization has been obsessed with speed since they created the logo.  Sure, Quarterbacks are going to hit on big TD’s but to win props like over 29.5 we need some easy red zone conversions. 

In comes one of the best WRs in the league and Carr’s old buddy from Fresno St., Davante Adams (73 career TDs).  I truly believe this is the biggest addition to any offense this off-season.  I think Carr will fly past his previous career high of 32 passing TDs and sneak up towards 40 in what will be an all fireworks, all the time division.

2. Russell Wilson (Broncos) OVER 31.5 passing TDs (-110 on Draftkings Sportsbook)

Russell Wilson’s first year in Denver is one of the most intriguing storylines for me in the NFL.  As strange as it will be to not see that angry looking hawk on his helmet, I think there may be no better fit for Russ. 

The Broncos have a great rushing attack with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon.  Unfortunately, steady slot WR Tim Patrick was lost for the season in camp but they still have exciting young wide outs Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and KJ Hamler on the roster.  A QB of Wilson’s caliber was the major missing ingredient and he is as motivated as ever to prove he’s still one of the league’s best signal callers. 

Before last season’s paltry 25 TDs over 14 games in Seattle, Wilson had four seasons in a row over 30.  Also of note, he peaked just 2 short years ago in 2020 with a career high 40 TDs through the air.  He is certainly still a weapon with his legs, but Russ has hung in the pocket more and more over recent years.  His 100+ rush attempts seasons appear to be gone for good. 

I think his passing numbers could be enormous in 2022.  I also have a bet on him to win MVP so I’m all in on DangeRUSS (man that's a bad nickname…)

1. Kirk Cousins (Vikings) OVER 4,200.5 passing yards (-110 on Draftkings Sportsbook)

Kirk Cousins over yardage at #1!?  If you would have told me when I started this season long prop series that I wouldn’t be able to shake Kirk from my brain, I’d have said you’re crazy.

But I must admit, “I LIKE THAT!”

Cousins is quietly one of the most quantitative QBs in football each year.  In his six full NFL seasons, the WORST yardage total he’s posted was 4,093 in his final year in Washington.  Now, entering year five in Minnesota, he has the best offensive firepower of his career. 

Justin Jefferson is one of the very best wide receivers in the league in each category.  Yardage wise, he was only behind Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp totaling over 1,600 yards.  He is capable of taking any play in space to the end zone which will only help our Cousins over.  On the other side is dependable veteran Adam Thielen and in the slot is the exciting former Miami Hurricane KJ Osborn.  Receiving centric tight end Irv Smith Jr. will finally be returning in 2022 and running backs Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison both can put up big receiving numbers as well.

Clearly, I’m ALL IN on the Vikings this year and a major reason why is the man behind center.  Take Kirk Cousins in fantasy, take his over in yardage and watch the Vikings rip the division from Green Bay.

 

Good luck everyone!

 

Written by David Costabile

Twitter: @davecostabile