NFL Week 1 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome to my weekly NFL Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my Top 5 (in order) game bets for the upcoming weekend.  I will be sticking to game lines and Over/Unders during this series.  

After waiting 207 LONG days for the NFL to return to our lives, I know how tempting it is to "bet the board".  However, I'm going to keep my plays small (at least at first) and provide my absolute favorite game bets.  The beginning of the season can come at you real fast if you start off poorly both for the NFL teams and what’s really important here... US the Gamblers!  

 

Become a member of Bet Karma Premium today!  Our Premium services are incredible and a true MUST HAVE for any gambler.  From Props to Futures to Daily Fantasy, we'll guide you through everything you need start to finish.  Get started for under $1 a day right now!

We truly have so many amazing features from our Live Betting Trends to our SPF Predictor to help you pad your bankroll.  Don't wait another minute!

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

 

Some of the keys for me early in the season is to attack inexperienced QBs, lean on superior Line play, and target a home underdog who is getting undervalued. 

Our road to the best betting season ever starts... NOW!

 

5. Indianapolis Colts AT Houston Texans (+7 -110) - 1 PM – CBS

There are three games this weekend that will showcase a home underdog of 7 points.  The Jets (vs. Ravens), the Bears (vs. 49ers) and the Texans.  I must pick one based purely on principle, especially in week 1.  For me, that choice is easily Houston. 

The Colts come into 2022 with QB Matt Ryan entering his 16th season but first with Indy.  Houston was atrocious last season finishing 4-13 as they were completely encompassed by the black cloud hovering over the city, Deshaun Watson.  The feeling in the Texans building must be incredible as they have cleansed themselves of the drama and can finally go back to trying to be a decent football team.

They’ll come out and try and make a statement in their home opener vs a division rival they know very well.  Which is another factor I hold in high regard.  Divisional game with a massive home dog makes my ears perk up like a pup hearing the word “treat”.

They have a few exciting weapons (WR Brandin Cooks, WR Nico Collins, RB Dameon Pierce) and seem to have a ton of faith in 2nd year QB Davis Mills.  This is going to be a much closer game than the oddsmakers think.  Take the Texans.

 

4. New York Giants AT Tennessee Titans (-5.5 -110) - 4:25 PM – FOX

The Giants were so bad last year finishing with a paltry record of 4-13.  The Titans were 12-5 and the AFC’s #1 seed.  Why is this line only 5.5 IN Nashville? 

Many pundits like the Giants’ internal adjustments from the end of last year till now.  New coach Brian Daboll could prove to be a great hire, they have beefed up an always horrible offensive line, and do have some skill players who will strike measured fear into opposing defenses.

But this bet is simple for me.  Don’t overthink something that appears obvious at first glance.  The Titans are a veteran team who have experienced great in season success.  Coach Mike Vrabel is a top 5-7 coach in the league.  Derrick Henry is going to toss Giants defenders around.  A still underrated Titans defense will force QB Daniel Jones into a plethora of mistakes.

The Titans will win by a touchdown or more.

 

3. New Orleans Saints (-5.5 -110) AT Atlanta Falcons - 1 PM – FOX

Here’s a game I’d normally avoid.  Divisional game with two teams who truly hate each other with the underdog being at home.  However, if you’ve read my win total articles, you know I think the Falcons may have the worst roster in the NFL.

The Saints defense could be special this season with playmakers at all three levels.  There isn’t an aspect to this game where the Falcons have the advantage other than being at home and we know all they care about in Georgia is the UGA Bulldogs. 

QB Jameis Winston was playing borderline lights out when he got hurt last season and this is a great opportunity for him to pick up where he left off.  Pro bowlers Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas are back, healthy, and shockingly not suspended in Kamara’s case. 

Look for Atlanta journeyman QB Marcus Mariota to be under duress all game and make crucial mistakes as the Saints take care of their rivals comfortably.

 

2. Green Bay Packers AT Minnesota Vikings (ML +100) - 4:25 PM – FOX

We're all in on the Vikings and all OUT on the Packers in 2022.

There has been very little movement on this line opening at GB -1 and settling in at -1.5 at the time of this article.  The Packers are undoubtedly going to get the public love based on their regular season dominance the last several years. 

**Check out our Live Trends Tool!**

The Vikings have the look of a team nudging themselves over the hump.  QB Kirk Cousins has been a yardage machine and finished last season with an incredibly impressive 33 TD to only 7 INTs.  The running game is lethal behind superstar Dalvin Cook.  WR Justin Jefferson is arguably a top 3 wide receiver in the world.  Adam Thielen, Irv Smith, KJ Osborn, etc.  This team is loaded with talent. 

The Packers reign of terror on the NFC is coming to an end and it starts Sunday afternoon.  Take the Vikings money line at even money now before the sharps come in!

 

1. New England Patriots AT Miami Dolphins (-3.5 -110) - 1:10 PM - CBS

Here’s a stat that almost made me spit my coffee out today.

The Patriots have lost 7 of their last 8 games in Miami since the beginning of the 2013 season.  Five of those losses with the greatest QB of all time at the helm!  They’re 0-2 since Brady departed.  My point is, Hard Rock Stadium is a house of horrors for New England whether they’re a top team in the league or in a borderline rebuild.

The Dolphins are looking playoffs after an off-season where they brought in innovative head coach Mike McDaniel, RB Chase Edmonds, RB Raheem Mostert, OT Terron Armstead, and WR Cedric Wilson Jr.  But the ultimate coup was trading for three-time All Pro WR Tyreek Hill.  There are absolutely zero excuses for the young QB Tua Tagovailoa with the weapons they have surrounded him with.

If the Dolphins want to put their stamp on a team that will challenge the Bills for the division and ultimately play in the post season, this is a game the Phins can’t afford to lose. 

The 3.5-point line is scary for some.  The oddsmakers are begging us to take the Patriots at that number.  Don’t fall for it.  Dolphins over Pats in Miami is as tradition as turkey on Thanksgiving. 

 

Written by David Costabile

Twitter: @davecostabile