NFL Week 2 - Top 5 Game Bets

Welcome back to “David’s Top 5” Game Bets series!

Each week I'll be bringing you my absolute favorite bets (in order) for the upcoming weekend. 

We’ll be sticking solely to game lines and Over/Unders.

 

The odds expressed in this article come from DraftKings Sportsbook.  Please be aware that lines may vary.  If you are unaware of where to bet please utilize our easy to use site to find other sportsbooks in your state.

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Previously on "David's Top 5"

Week 2 Record: 3-2 / Overall: 3-2

I was throwing a parade for myself starting early Sunday when the Texans (+7) jumped out to a 20-3 lead.  As the Colts stormed back, I remained confident knowing I couldn't lose the bet in OT.  Speaking of the Colts, they may make another appearance in this week's top 5.

At the same time, the Dolphins (-3.5) were handling the Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium, winning my #1 bet, and doing everything I said would happen. 

All good things must come to end as down in the ATL, I was kicking myself watching the Saints (-5.5) flounder as a division rival away favorite.  I should have never fell for that.  (*Spoiler - I'm about to do it again...)

Coming into the 4 PM games I felt great about the Vikings (ML) as STUD WR Justin Jefferson ran roughshod all over the Packers "vaunted" defense.  This game was also crucial for my Vikings over 9 wins and Packers under 11 win total bets I shared preseason. 

Unfortunately for us, the Titans (-5.5) are choke artists and let the Giants hang around all game long.  Even up 13-0, I knew Tennessee was in trouble with their porous red zone offense.  Credit to New York as they woke up and stole this game from the former AFC #1 seed, OUTRIGHT.

We will take a 3-2 Week 1 start and run as it's normally a complete bloodbath.

 

Week 2

5. Washington Commanders AT Detroit Lions (-1.5 -110) - 1 PM - FOX

The Lions are favorites for the first time since November 2020.  Twenty-four (!!!) straight games of being a plucky underdog can drive a fan base insane.  It's time for the Lions to cover that -1.5 spread in front of their faithful. 

Ford Field was electric last week as they fell short to the Eagles by 3 points after coming back from down 38-21 in the 4th quarter.  D'Andre Swift showed how much of a monster he was with 175 total yards from scrimmage and a touchdown.  QB Jared Goff didn't make my jaw drop with his efficiency and did throw a crucial pick 6, but he also had two nice TD passes to Amon-Ra St. Brown and newcomer DJ Chark.  

Commanders QB Carson Wentz had himself a glorious Wentz-like day throwing for 4 TDs and 2 INTs ultimately leading Washington to a thrilling comeback win at home vs. the Jags.  

I think had Washington lost that game I would just stay away here and root quietly for Coach Dan Campbell to bring home the W.  But I really like this opportunity for the Lions.  Lay the 1.5 and celebrate with D-Town as they even up their record at 1-1.

 

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers AT New Orleans Saints (+3 -127) - 1 PM - FOX

The only issue I have with this Saints bet is that it feels like everyone is also on New Orleans.  It's hard not to be.

The Saints have owned the Bucs.

Since December 2018, New Orleans have won 7 straight regular season games vs Tampa Bay.  Some of them not even remotely close including a 38-3 drubbing in 2020 and a 9-0 snooze fest last year.  Both of those games were IN Tampa Bay too.

The Bucs scored one TD last week and their banged up offensive line struggled vs Dallas.  Tampa benefited from great field position all game as the Cowboys couldn't move the ball at all, yet rarely took advantage.  The Saints defense is just as good if not more highly touted than Dallas and their offense certainly appears much better. 

Divisional home underdog, trends are with you, I'm with you.  Take the Saints. 

I may even do a money line sprinkle as well.

 

3. Indianapolis Colts (-3.5 -115) AT Jacksonville Jaguars - 1 PM - CBS

Unlike the Saints pick... and I warned you in my intro...

I'm back on the side of a road divisional favorite just one pick later.  But here me out!

The Colts tied the Houston Texans last week.  Gross.  But look inside the game further and you walk away feeling a little better if you're a Colts fan.  They led the league with 517 total yards of offense and scored 17 straight points in the 4th quarter to force OT.  Indy had 90 plays on offense which was 2nd in the league and 33 first downs which tied for 1st.  If now released Kicker Rodrigo Blankenship would have made a 42 yard kick in OT, they'd be 1-0 today.  

My point is the Colts, and their new QB Matt Ryan, figured it out as the game wore on.  The Jaguars meanwhile blew an 8-point, 4th quarter lead against Washington.  

This game also matches up Jags coach Doug Pederson with his former Offensive Coordinator in Philly, Frank Reich.  These guys know each other very well.  What Pederson wasn't around for however was the Jags ripping the hearts (and a playoff berth) out of Indy in Week 18 last year.  The Colts haven't forgotten and will right that wrong on Sunday at 1 PM.

 

2. Seattle Seahawks AT San Francisco 49ers (-8.5 -110) - 4:05 PM - FOX

This is very simple for me.  

It's a classic "spot" game as they call it.  The Niners could not have looked worse last week (albeit in a Chicago monsoon) and the Seahawks won the most emotional game they've played in years defeating former hero Russell Wilson at home on Monday Night Football.

The Seahawks and Geno Smith deserve all the credit for winning that game in front of the world as 6.5-point home underdogs.  It was an awesome game, and they took it from Denver.  However, people need to chill out on the effectiveness of Geno Smith.  He had 195 yards for goodness’ sake.  Star WR DK Metcalf averaged just over 5 yards per catch.  RB Rashaad Penny had 26 yards on one carry and then 34 yards on the other 11 runs.  

Reality will set in this week for both teams in Santa Clara, CA. 

Kyle Shanahan is too good a coach, it's the home opener, and I don't think its necessarily fair to judge QB Trey Lance in torrential rain.  With that said, you certainly can this week against a defense that just let up 433 yards to the Broncos.  I'm not sure Lance will play lights out, but San Fran won't need that as they handle their rival by 10+ points at home.  

 

1. Miami Dolphins AT Baltimore Ravens (UNDER 44.5 -110) - 1 PM - CBS

I can sense how disgusted you all are that my #1 pick is an Under.

Money doesn't discriminate and as un-enjoyable as rooting for an under is, I absolutely LOVE this bet.

These are two of my favorite defenses to watch.  They both fly around, create confusion, and wreak havoc on opposing offenses.  In fact, the Dolphins defense may be one of the most underrated units in the league.  

I see this game as a pure slugfest with points coming at a premium for both offenses.  I expect to see a lot of kickers Justin Tucker and Jason Sanders as a dejected offense jogs off the field on 4th down.

21-14, 24-17, 28-13.  Those are all wins for us.  

Shift up to the edge of your seat, grit those teeth and root on this under with me.

 

Written by David Costabile

Twitter: @davecostabile