American Athletic Conference 2023 Win Total Picks

We are back with my Third Win Total Conference predictions. I am looking at the American Athletic Conference today which has seen a lot of movement in and out of the conference. Make sure if you haven’t already to check out my two other conference previews so far of the MAC and MWC conferences. Let’s get into which teams will perform over their win total and which teams will disappoint under their win total.

 

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1. Tulane Green Wave- OV/UN 9.5 wins:

                        The Green Wave of Tulane looks to get back to the promised land of the AAC. Tulane was one of the great stories of the college football season last year, highlighted by their incredible upset win over USC. Green Wave will have to replace running back Tyjae Spears who left for the NFL. With quarterback Michael Pratt back Tulane will once again be the clear favorite in the AAC. The schedule is absolutely brutal out of conference however playing South Alabama, Ole Miss, and Southern Miss. I think the Under is free money because they also go to a very talented Memphis team as well as pesky road tests at FAU and ECU.

The play: Under 9.5

2. FAU Owls- OV/UN 7.5 wins:

               The FAU Owls are my sleeper team to reach the title game in the AAC. Head coach Tom Herman enters his first year in Boca Raton which should be an improvement from 2022. I know this will sound crazy but I like FAU’s under-in wins despite playing for a conference crown. I see FAU going 6-2 and having the head-to-head tiebreaker over UTSA. The Owls will lose to Ohio, Clemson, and Illinois out of conference for the under to hit exactly seven wins. It will take about a month but FAU will be good come October. 

The play: Under 7.5

3. UTSA Roadrunners- OV/UN 7.5 wins: 

                UTSA is one of the most fun teams to watch in all of college football. The Roadrunners return 16 starters from last year’s squad including star quarterback Frank Harris. I am extremely high on UTSA this season and primed for big things. The non-conference schedule has tough tests at Houston, vs Army, and at Tennessee. I think at worst they go 2-1 in those games and think they are primed for at least six conference wins. UTSA avoids two other top AAC teams which are key in Memphis and SMU. I love this over even at the price tag.

The play: Over 7.5

4. SMU Mustangs- OV/UN 8 wins:

                 The SMU Mustangs have a very favorable schedule in 2023. Mustangs avoid conference favorites Tulane, FAU, and UTSA! SMU will score a lot of points but the defense is a major concern. The out-of-conference schedule is difficult with rival TCU and Oklahoma both on the road. Assuming they lose both of those games I see SMU pushing this total. I think they will win the head-to-head against Memphis and keep them at 6-2 in the AAC. SMU will be a fun 8-4 squad with quarterback Preston Stone a must-watch week in and week out.

The play: None/Push

5. Memphis Tigers- OV/UN 8.5 wins:

                  Head coach Ryan Silverfield has a lot to look forward to in 2023. The Memphis Tigers did wonders in the portal picking many key pieces who will be focal points on both sides of the ball. Many of these top teams can score with just about anyone and Memphis is no different. The schedule offers a great opportunity for the Tigers to eclipse this win total. Tulane, Boise State, and SMU all come to Memphis and Missouri is at a neutral site. I think the Tigers are poised for a 9-3 season and losing on tiebreakers in a crowded top part of the AAC.

The play: Over 8.5 

6. Navy Midshipmen- OV/UN 6 wins:

                    I love my country and I love some Navy football. This is the year the Midshipmen turn it around and finish in the top half of the AAC. Keep in mind however this schedule is absolutely brutal out of conference. Playing both service academies as well as playing Notre Dame in Ireland. In conference, they do avoid UTSA, Tulane, and FAU. This could be another push at six wins total but I do think the over is the smarter play. I think the Navy can win five conference games and in the worst case beat Wagner.

The play: Over/Push 6

7. East Carolina Pirates- OV/UN 5.5 wins:

                    The Pirates of East Carolina are coming off an incredible 2022 campaign going 8-5 respectively. As you can see by their Vegas line they took a major hit in the offseason. ECU loses their quarterback, running back, and two receivers, and only returns one guy on the offensive line. For a team that scored 32.5 points last year that is a huge problem. Looking at their non-conference schedule it’s daunting. Road dates at Michigan, App State, and hosting Marshall. Now looking at their AAC schedule they also have to travel to FAU, Navy, and UTSA. They also play every single team listed above them in this article. Multiple units play on the under and buy the price tag.

The play: Under 5.5

8. North Texas Mean Green- OV/UN 6 wins:

                       The North Texas Mean Green is going through a lot of turnover on the staff. They have taken the smart approach to hiring Texas-grown minds and I think that will help them in 2023. The process will take time however and given the mass departures this won’t be easy. I think the Mean Green will go bowling and in the worst case, you will likely push this total.

The play: Over/Push 6

9. UAB Blazers- OV/UN 5 wins:

                        UAB Blazers take the step up into the AAC. Conference USA is a lot easier than the AAC and time will tell how hard the transition will be. New Head coach Trent Dilfer has about 99 problems and easy wins aren’t one of them. I think this is a no-brainer under. The Blazers play nine projected bowl-eligible teams and five of them are away from Birmingham. This will be a big play for me and in the worst case you would push at 5 wins. Oh and did I mention they go to Athens to face Georgia… good luck.

The play: Under 5

10. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes- OV/UN 4.5 wins:

                         Tulsa is still very much a work in progress heading into the 2023 football season. The Golden Hurricanes need the offensive line to finally step up and help their playmakers on offense. The schedule is very hard especially early on in the season. Tulsa has brutal road dates at Washington, at Oklahoma, at NIU, at FAU, at SMU, and at Tulane… Gulp that was hard to even write. I think Tulsa will flirt with this total but with that schedule I see them going under and only winning four games.

The play: Under 4.5

11. Temple Owls- OV/UN 5.5 wins: 

                          Temple will be slightly improved in 2022. With the return of seven starters on defense, the Owls will take a step in the right direction. The question becomes is it enough to surpass the 5.5 win total? In my eyes it still is not and see the Owls winning five games, coming up just short of going bowling. Dates against Rutgers, Miami, UTSA, Navy, SMU, and Memphis are too much for Temple to overcome.

The play: Under 5.5

12. Rice Owls- OV/UN 4.5 wins:

                          One rule in college football is don’t lose to food. The Rice Owls will be looking to break that rule several times throughout the 2023 season to eclipse this win total. The bottom part of the AAC is really bad. It is extremely hard for me to find ways to bet some of these teams overs. If their is one though I would side with Rice. The Owls have enough winnable games to get to five wins. With JT Daniels anything is possible on the offensive end. I think they can take advantage at home against Houston and UConn to find a way over.

The play: Over 4.5 wins 

13. USF Bulls- OV/UN 4.5 wins:

                           USF is going through drastic transformation within the program. The Bulls only won 1 game last year and were arguably the worst division 1 team in the country. Now some how their win total is at 4.5 I don’t buy the “hype” in South Florida and think this schedule is too challenging. Not only does USF play Alabama but every road game is against a team that has aspirations to make a bowl game. 

The play: Under 4.5

14. Charlotte 49ers- OV/UN 3 wins:

                           Last but not least we have the Charlotte 49ers to round out the AAC. Another team that has many questions regarding their offense. Also worth mentioning the 49ers defense allowed almost 40 points per game in 2022. Charlotte will look to beat South Carolina State in their season opener to amend last years loss to FCS William & Mary. Personally I can’t see this team winning four games and think the safer pick is to ride the under. At worst case you should push at 3, nonetheless hammer Charlotte overs all season long.

The play: Under/Push 3

Conference Championship Exact Matchup: Tulane vs FAU (+1000)

Conference Champion Winner Future: (+165)

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