Sun Belt Conference 2023 Win Total Picks

Welcome back to College Football Win Totals in 2023. So far I have covered the MAC, MWC, and AAC so go check those out if you haven’t already! Today I am going to be attacking the always intriguing Sun Belt Conference. This year might be the most stacked in its league history with eyes on a NY6 Bowl. Let’s dive into which teams hit their win totals and which squads suffer from falling below their number.

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East Division:

1. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers- OV/UN 7.5 wins:

                            Three-time Sun Belt player of the year Grayson Mcall is back at quarterback in 2023. He battled injuries that derailed his performance and the team 3 game season ending losing streak. I expect bigger and better things this season as they will come out victorious in a brutal East Division. I love this over because they avoid the two best teams in the conference in Troy and South Alabama. The non-con is difficult with a season opener at UCLA as well as traveling to Army. If Coastal can handle their business at home they will go over this win total as well as fight for a conference crown. 

The play: Over 7.5

2. Appalachian State Mountaineers- OV/UN 6.5 wins:

                              Appalachian State was one of the most confusing college football teams to figure out last season. Not only did they beat Troy and Texas A&M they also lost to Texas State and Georgia Southern. This year I expect them to finish around the same with a 7-win season. I think there is enough on offense to make up for a struggling defense. Given the Fun Belt schedule it plays into App State. Non-conference games at UNC and at Wyoming will provide challenges for the Mountaineers. I am going to side with the over and think they finish in a four-way tie at second in the East Division.

The play: Over 6.5

3. Marshall Thundering Herd- OV/UN 7 wins:

                               Marshall is looking to build off an impressive 2022 campaign finishing 9-4. 2022 was highlighted by the massive upset at Notre Dame as the Thundering Herd will once again be a major threat in the Sun Belt. The key to Marshall trying to win the East Division will be their stout defensive front. If they can limit their opponents in an offensive-heavy league they have a chance to do damage. Looking at their win total it is hard for me to have an official play. Playing at ECU, vs VA Tech, and at NC State could go a lot of different directions. I will say they push but hit the over if you need action.

The play: Push/OV 7 

4. James Madison Dukes- OV/UN 8.5 wins:

                              The Dukes made a splash in their first year of Division 1 Football. They won eight games including winning the East Crown in their first year competing in the conference. They will once again be a player in this loaded East Division. Similar to Marshall another team that will rely heavily on their defense throughout the season. They return a decent chunk and think they will finish in a four-way tie for second. In my opinion, this is the best under on the board, and most likely why it is heavily juiced right now. Out-of-conference games at Virginia and at Utah State will be huge challenges. Throw in the fact they face the other heavyweights in the West Division in Troy and South Alabama. The Dukes will not get more than eight wins in 2023.

The play: Under 8.5

5. Georgia Southern Eagles- OV/UN 6.5 wins:

                                 The Eagles were a great story in 2022 led under the direction of Head Coach Todd Helton. In 2023 I have major concerns with the departure of quarterback Kyle Vantrease. Another issue was the Eagles' defense in 2022 and with not much added help this season I don’t foresee a huge change. With that being said I do think their win total is attainable based on the schedule. The Eagles avoid playing South Alabama, and Troy as well as getting all the bottom-tier Sun Belt teams at home. If Georgia Southern can take care of business early in the season against UAB they will sneak over and reach seven.

The play: Over 6.5

6. Georgia State Panthers- OV/UN 5.5 wins:

                                 The Panthers face challenges after finishing 2022 4-8. They saw a lot of turnovers, especially on defense in the offseason. While the Panthers do pose a major threat on offense I am unsure if they will be able to stop the teams listed above. Looking at their non-conference schedule it’s extremely easy except for the November buy game at LSU. I think this Panther team is primed for another season without a bowl game. I am slamming this under 5.5 with the Panthers. 

The play: Under 5.5

7. Old Dominion Monarchs- OV/UN 3.5 wins:

                                  Old Dominion is easily the worst team in the East Division. Major rebuild mode is officially on at Old Dominion as the Monarchs completely revamp their squad from a year ago. New offensive coordinator Kevin Decker will have his work cut out for him after their top three playmakers all transferred. I think this is free money as the Monarchs have an absolute gauntlet. In the non-conference, ODU has to play VA Tech and Wake also has to travel to Conference USA powerhouse Liberty. This total screams under and should be stress-free.

The play: Under 3.

West Divison:

                                            1. Troy Trojans- OV/UN 8.5 wins:  The Trojans of Troy are winning the West Division and playing for a Sun Belt crown. Troy has the most explosive defensive unit in the conference and they return a heavy chunk of production from last season. People forget just how great Troy was in 2022 going 12-2 and winning this conference. The win total is going to be awfully close given a brutal schedule. I think Troy will squeak over the nine wins and is worth taking the plus money on the over. Troy will once again be one of the best group of five teams in all of college football.

                           The play: Over 8.5

                                            2. South Alabama Jaguars- OV/UN 8 wins: The Jaguars of South Alabama will battle tooth and nail with Troy trying to win the West. South Alabama returns most of their squad that saw them win 10 games last season. They also will look to avenge a 10-6 defeat to Troy that determined the West Division. Similar to last year I see Troy squeaking out a win. I love this over with the Jags because at worst I can’t see this talented of a group winning anything less than eight games. Other than a road date at Kansas State every game is winnable and with most of the 2022 group back I see big things for South Alabama in 2023.

The play: Over 8

3. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns- OV/UN 7.5 wins: Louisiana saw a major rebuild take place in 2022 finishing 6-7, the first losing record since 2017. Expect the Ragin Cajuns to improve in 2023 and their schedule is impactful in doing so. Louisiana's two games from the East are against bottom league opponents in Georgia State and Old Dominion. The only power conference opponent is a road date at Minnesota. The schedule is very winnable to surpass the 7.5 number and cash this ticket. 

The play: Over 7.5

4. Southern Miss Golden Eagles- OV/UN 5.5 wins:

                                            Southern Miss Golden Eagles will be one of the most pleasant surprises you see in all of college football. Running back Frank Gore Jr. is back and is primed to set the tone for a fun offense. The non-conference schedule is the hardest of any Sun Belt team, however. The Golden Eagles visit Florida State and Mississippi State while hosting Tulane. I am buying a flyer on Southern Miss and taking a plus money win total over. 

The play: Over 5.5

5. Arkansas State Red Wolves- OV/UN 4.5 wins:                           

                                               To say it lightly Arkansas State has been a mess under Head Coach Butch Jones. Going into his third season he brings in a 5-19 record and only has seven returning starters. I expect another rough year for the Red Wolves as they will have to match up against the best built Sun Belt I have ever seen. Playing at Oklahoma, vs Memphis, at Troy, at South Alabama, vs Coastal, and at Marshall is way too difficult to think about not slamming the under. I think this will be a sweat but at the end of the day Arkansas State will go 4-8 at best.

The play: Under 4.5

    6. Texas State Bobcats- OV/UN 4 wins:         

                                             Texas State is seeing arguably the most turnover of any Sun Belt team in 2023. New Head Coach G.J. Kinne will look to take his in-state success from UIW and implement it in San Marcos. Given all the new faces and challenging schedules, I can’t buy back into this program yet. I think this is free and in the worst case, you will push. By the time this roster figures it out, it will be too late as they look ahead to 2024.

The play: Under 4                         

7. UL Monroe Warhawks- OV/UN 3.5 wins:

                                               This has been one of the hardest jobs to produce a winner in college football. Given the lack of resources and recruiting nightmare, the Warhawks have consistently been at the bottom of the Sun Belt. With only four starters back on a bad defense in 2023 it will be nearly impossible for ULM to keep up with bowl eligible teams. Their schedule provides nine of their 12 games in that such case which is way too many to bet an over. I love this under 3.5 and I trust the depth of the Sun Belt to beat up on ULM.

 The play: Under 3.5

Conference Championship Exact Matchup:   Coastal Carolina vs Troy (+275)
Conference Champion Winner Future:    Troy (+310) 

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