<h1>Tournament: The Masters</h1>

Course: Augusta National Golf Club

All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook

<h1>Fast Facts</h1>

<ul>
	<li>Par 72, 7475 yards</li>
	<li>Fairways: Bermuda</li>
	<li>Rough: Rye and Bluegrass</li>
	<li>Greens: Bentgrass (Lightning fast; probably 13+ on the stimp or closer to 14)</li>
	<li>Average Green Size: 6500 sq. ft. (about average for the TOUR)</li>
	<li>Water Hazards: 6</li>
	<li>Field: 93 players; Cut is Top 50 and ties</li>
	<li>18 Hole Stroke Average: 73.59 (+1.59 OVER par)</li>
	<li>Average Cutline over the last 10 years: +5</li>
	<li>Par 5 Scoring Key</li>
</ul>

Welcome to The&nbsp;Masters and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as golf is one of the biggest &ldquo;bang for your buck&rdquo; sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few years&nbsp;of golf betting.

It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn&rsquo;t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!

Recap: 2020 (YTD): +133.8 Units

2020-2021 Season: +61.9 Units

<h1>Outrights</h1>

&nbsp;

<h2>Patrick Cantlay &ndash; 28/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

My overall pick to win this tournament. Ranks top 20 or better in every statistical category I&rsquo;m weighting this week, including 2nd in SG: Around-the-Green (ARG), 7th SG: Tee-to-Green (T2G), 11th in SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT), and 12th in SG: Putting on Fast/Bentgrass greens. He finished 9th at Augusta last year, he has great experience on similar courses (former winner at Muirfield), and just won a few weeks ago on TOUR. He&rsquo;s in great form, he fits the criteria for a Masters winner, and has the distance/scrambling/putting ability to win his first major.

&nbsp;

<h2>Hideki Matsuyama &ndash; 30/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

I think many, including myself, have pegged him to win a major a long, long time ago and this major seems to fit him the best. Yes, he will always putt poorly for the most part, but he&rsquo;s one of the most pure ball-strikers in the world, actually has a great SG: ARG game (3rd in the field), ranks 5th SG: T2G, and is 10th in Birdie-or-Better % (BoB) to go along with Top 15 in SG: OTT and GIRs. Comfortable at this course with 5 straight made cuts that includes 2 Top 10s and an 11th/19th in that span.

&nbsp;

<h2>Adam Scott &ndash; 50/1 (0.5 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

Doesn&rsquo;t play nearly as much as others so always difficult to judge his &ldquo;current&rdquo; form but in his 5 starts since post COVID, he has made all 5 cuts, albeit no big finishes, but has gained on SG: APP in 3 of his last 4, SG: Putting in his last 3 straight, and has fantastic course history. Scott has made every cut at Augusta since 2010 with a win in 2013 along with 3 Top 10s and 3 Top 20s in that span. He ranks 6th in this field in BoB and 9th in SG: Putting on Fast/Bentgrass greens.

&nbsp;

<h2>Rickie Fowler &ndash; 70/1 (already bet at 66/1 for 2 units); would recommend 0.5-1 units</h2>

&nbsp;

Purely going down narrative street as Rickie has looked pretty awful with his last Top 10 finish coming at the Amex this past January; however, course history matters and Rickie clearly likes this course and his results show just that with 8/9 cuts made in his career. Of those finishes, three were Top 10s (including a runner up), while 2 more were T12/T11, all in the last 6 years. Rickie is still one of the better putters on TOUR, he excels on Bentgrass greens, and although his all around game/ball-striking have certainly lacked, he does still rank 24th in the field in GIRs and SG: OTT along with 22nd in SG: Putting on Fast/Bentgrass greens&hellip; plus, we&rsquo;ll never get a number on this popular of a player again. One time?

&nbsp;

<h2>Justin Rose &ndash; 80/1 (0.5 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

Rose started out the post COVID portion of the season hot by finishing 3rd in the first event back and followed it up with a 14th the week after, gaining over 6 strokes T2G in both events. Then&hellip; I&rsquo;m not sure what happened but Rose become extremely inconsistent and looked out of sorts with the irons. He hasn&rsquo;t been a COMPLETE disaster as he missed 3 straight cuts and then flourished for a T9 at the PGA Championship. Now to some positives&hellip; he has gained on SG: OTT in 4 of his last 5 tournaments, his best putting surface is Bentgrass, and he does rank 9th in the field in SG: Putting on Fast/Bentgrass greens, 26th in GIRs, 32nd in SG: APP, and 21st in BoB. Nothing groundbreaking in the stats category, but before he MC at Augusta last year, he had 8 straight made cuts with no finish worse than T25 that included 2 runner ups, 2 more Top 10s, and 3 T14s or better in that span&hellip; he knows this course and this is a huge number for a former major winner and one of the best overall Augusta players on TOUR.

Bonus light some money on fire outright (yes, I bet it): Jordan Spieth 66/1 (1.5 units)

<h1>Top 10/Top 20</h1>

&nbsp;

<h2>Lee Westwood Top 10 - +550 (2 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

Per my course history model, he has the best Augusta form of anyone here with no missed cuts between 2007-2017 (hasn&rsquo;t played the last 2 years) that included 2 runner ups, 3 Top 10s, and a couple close calls for one of the best players ever without a major&hellip; tough to see Westwood really contending for a win, but I love the Top 10 upside that he comes with this week.

&nbsp;

<h2>Jordan Spieth Top 10 &ndash; 5/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Needs to find some magic&hellip; probably a suckers bet but hard to argue with his history and although his driver/irons are NOT in form right now, he still ranks 6th in SG: ARG, 13th in BoB, and 2nd in GIRs&hellip; also has never finished worse than T21 in 6 starts at Augusta.

&nbsp;

<h2>Sungjae Im Top 20 - +250 (2 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

Makes me nervous to bet this as Im is a debutant, but he feels a cut above a lot of the other debutants with how consistent he is and as a former winner this year (Honda Classic). Didn&rsquo;t have his best stuff in Houston last week, but had gained on SG: APP in the previous 6 events in a row, gained on SG: OTT in the previous 5 events in a row, and is riding an 8 straight made cuts streak coming into Augusta.

&nbsp;

<h2>Bernd Wiesberger Top 20 - +550 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Mostly plays on the European Tour so we don&rsquo;t have a tremendous sample of reliable stats, but he has made all 4 cuts at Augusta, with 2 of them a T24 and T22, made the cut at both of the majors this year, and we&rsquo;re getting decent value on a guy who&rsquo;s a great putter on the Euro and is the 37th ranked golfer in the world right now.

&nbsp;

<h2>Sebastian Munoz Top 20 - +450 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Another debutant, so like Sungjae, that comes with risk, but Munoz is in great form right now with 8 straight made cuts that includes 3 Top 10s and has gained on SG: APP and SG: T2G in last 4 events in a row. In this loaded field, Munoz ranks 17th in SG: T2G, 3rd in SG: APP, and 8th in SG: ARG. I see Munoz is a very strong T20 value bet as his Vegas have his implied odds in the range of around 18-20% to get in the Top 20 compared to mine of about 27-28%.

&nbsp;

<h1>Miscellaneous Props</h1>

&nbsp;

<h2>Top Oklahoma State Player &ndash; Rickie Fowler (+150); 1 Unit</h2>

&nbsp;

Weird bet here but it&rsquo;s basically Rickie versus Wolff and with Wolff&rsquo;s recent form/driving woes and being a debutant versus Rickie&rsquo;s course history, I really like that we&rsquo;re getting Rickie at + money here.

&nbsp;

<h2>Top Debutant &ndash; Sungjae Im 10/1, Abraham Ancer 11/1, Sebastian Munoz 18/1 (0.5 Units each)</h2>

&nbsp;

<h2>To Miss the Cut &ndash; Matthew Wolff +210 / Bryson DeChambeau +550 / Tommy Fleetwood +240 / Gary Woodland +120 (0.5 Units each)</h2>

&nbsp;

As noted above, I don&rsquo;t like Wolff&rsquo;s form right now and his recent struggles with the driver, which is by far his biggest weapon. Bryson is the co-betting favorite (or close to it) and it sounds counterintuitive, but maybe he does just drive every green and win&hellip; but if he starts to struggle, I think it goes downhill fast and he could easily MC. Fleetwood has looked horrible, at least in the US lately, losing strokes on APP in SIX STRAIGHT events, losing T2G in 4 of his last 5 and just putting extremely well&hellip; if that putter goes cold, he could be in for a hell of a time. Lastly, I love Woodland, but he&rsquo;s admitted he&rsquo;s hurt and probably needs surgery, so I think we&rsquo;re getting great value with his injury and getting a + money bet.

&nbsp;

<h1>Matchups/Tournament Groups</h1>

&nbsp;

<h2>Jordan Spieth &gt; Matthew Wolff +120 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

<h2>Group A Winner (DK Sportsbook) &ndash; Justin Thomas +450 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

This group is loaded, so I think it&rsquo;s worth a unit or so on the best iron player in the world (also ranked #3 in OWGR) to beat a couple of other studs.

&nbsp;

<h2>Group B Winner (DK Sportsbook) &ndash; Patrick Cantlay +400 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

I love Cantlay this week as you&rsquo;ll see in all my content, so I think we&rsquo;re getting decent odds here. I think Hideki would also be a fine bet at +375 but I think Xander/Hatton are overvalued in this group at +250/+350. Brooks is always a threat to storm the field, especially in a major, but he&rsquo;s still coming off of a pretty recent injury (but has looked pretty solid to be fair).

&nbsp;

<h2>Group C Winner (DK Sportsbook) &ndash; Bubba Watson +350 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Tight group here with all 5 guys, Finau/Day/Morikawa/Reed/Bubba between +325 to +350 but I think Bubba is playing some of the best golf in the world right now. Bubba has gained in SG: OTT and SG: T2G in 9 straight events, gained on SG: APP in 6 straight, and has 2 Top 20s and 2 Top 10s in his last 4 starts. Lastly, maybe burying the lead, but Bubba has also won here twice and finished 12th/5th at Augusta in his two most recent starts.

 Tournament: The MastersCourse: Augusta National Golf ClubAll Current Odds are via DK SportsbookFast FactsPar 72, 7475 yardsFairways: BermudaRough: Rye and BluegrassGreens: Bentgrass (Lightning fast; probably 13+ on the stimp or closer to 14)Average 

Sam's PGA Bets - 2020 Masters Tournament

Tournament: U.S. Open

Course: Winged Foot

All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook

<h1>Fast Facts</h1>

<ul>
	<li><a name="_Hlk44487634"></a><a name="_Hlk32930654">Par 70 approx. 7477 yards</a></li>
	<li>Poa/Bentgrass Greens (13+ on the stimp; FAST); 6600 sq. ft. greens on average (LARGE)</li>
	<li>Field: 144 players; Top 60 and Ties make the cut</li>
	<li>Designed by A.W. Tillinghast with Gil Hanse revamp in 2016-2017</li>
	<li>Most recent US Open hosted here was 2006, won by Geoff Ogilvy</li>
	<li>2006 stats: Ogilvy made 9 birdies TOTAL; won at +5</li>
	<li>More 2006 stats: Scoring average of 74.99, Fairways hit at 50%, Greens 52%, Scrambling 40%</li>
	<li>Tight fairways (19-23 yards on avg) with thick rough from 3.5-5 inches</li>
	<li>Corollary Courses: Oakmont, Bethpage Black, Baltusrol, Firestone, Torrey Pines (South Course), TPC Harding Park</li>
	<li>Top 10 Course Fit Targets: Jason Day, Tiger Woods, Charles Howell III, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Keegan Bradley, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed</li>
</ul>

Welcome to the U.S. Open and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest &ldquo;bang for your buck&rdquo; sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.

It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn&rsquo;t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!

Recap: Starts once the 2020-2021 season ramps up! 
2019-2020 Season Recap: +78.9 Units

&nbsp;

<h2>Justin Rose &ndash; 45/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Hasn&rsquo;t had his best stuff since the restart but showed some positive signs at the PGA Championship after a string of missed cuts as he quietly finished T9 at TPC Harding Park. I think this number is too high for a previous US Open winner and when you dive into the stats, yes he&rsquo;s been volatile, but he has still gained strokes Off-The-Tee in every event since the restart except one and has gained strokes on Approach in 3 of his last 4 tournaments. In my course fit ranks, I have Rose at 13th and I will buy into the narrative that he&rsquo;s a veteran that knows how to play at difficult courses and focus on saving par rather than trying to make birdies.

&nbsp;

<h2>Adam Scott &ndash; 55/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

As I mentioned in my DFS preview, it&rsquo;s always tough to gauge how Scott is playing because he plays so few tournaments but in the long term, he hits a lot of fairways, hits a lot of greens, and his putting woes will always be present but with the very speedy greens this week I think the rest of the field will struggle as well. It&rsquo;s worth noting that Poa is his best surface and in his last 6 US Opens he has 2 MC to go along with 3 Top 10s and a T18.

&nbsp;

<h2>Matthew Wolff &ndash; 80/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

One of the only &ldquo;longer&rdquo; shots that I really like this week. Wolff ranks out 7th in SG: T2G, 4th in GIRs, and 2nd in my Driving model to go along with a Top 30 rank in SG: Approach, SG: Around the Green, and Bogey Avoidance&hellip; he&rsquo;s not the best putter but his best surface so far in his short career is Poa and he&rsquo;s gained Off the Tee in 8 of his last 9 tournaments, on Approach in 5 of his last 6, and if he keeps it in the fairway I think he can compete with the big boys this week.

&nbsp;

<h2>Louis Oosthuizen &ndash; 80/1 (1 Unit) and Top 5 &ndash; 12/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

I&rsquo;m such a sucker for Louis and he&rsquo;s probably someone I&rsquo;ve bet on the most in my career&hellip; hasn&rsquo;t worked out. Louis has amazing US Open history as he&rsquo;s made 6 straight cuts and in the last 5 years has a T7, a T2, and 3 finishes of T23 or better. Normally not a stats guru, he has gained strokes on Approach and T2G in 5 straight tournaments and Poa is the only putting surface where he gains strokes on average. I&rsquo;m hoping Louis can get the magic putter this week and save par from everywhere in what should be an over par winner.

&nbsp;

<h2>Corey Conners Top 20 &ndash; 5/1 (2 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

A bit riskier here as I love Conners per his stats, and I think most will see the same, but he hits more greens than anyone on TOUR, hits a ton of fairways, and has been playing well. Now the risk here and why I won&rsquo;t bet him outright is that if he misses the green, he&rsquo;s almost surely not getting up and down, but I think the rest of the field will be in a similar boat as bogeys are inevitable for even the best in the world. For what it&rsquo;s worth, Conners ranks 1st in my Driving Blend, 5th in Bogey Avoidance, 4th T2G, and 10th in GIRs.

&nbsp;

<h2>Erik Van Rooyen Top 20 &ndash; +550 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Van Rooyen is always tough to evaluate since he plays majority of his rounds on the Euro Tour but he ranks Top 20 in this field in T2G, Approach, and GIRs and Ranks Top 10 in my Driving blend for the week as well. He&rsquo;s only played in one US Open (last year) and did make the cut. Going with the Euro narrative, he&rsquo;s used to tougher courses as shown by his T3 finish at WGC Mexico to go along with 2 finishes of T22 or better in his last 5 starts.

&nbsp;

<h2>Webb Simpson over Rory McIlroy - +100 (2 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

It never feels good to be betting against one of the very best in the world like Rory/Rahm/DJ, etc but Webb is having a career season and I think is better suited and in better form than Rory this week. If this were a birdie fest type of track, I would like Webb but would favor Rory; however, currently, Rory has lost the putter, losing strokes in his last 4 of 5 and his Approach game has been more up and down than previous seasons. Yes Webb doesn&rsquo;t hit it as far as the bombers but he hits a ton of fairways which should be more important than distance this week and despite being known as an elite Bermuda putter, he actually gains almost as many on average on Poa greens (0.26 per round on Bermuda and 0.24 per round on Poa).

 Tournament: U.S. OpenCourse: Winged FootAll Current Odds are via DK SportsbookFast FactsPar 70 approx. 7477 yardsPoa/Bentgrass Greens (13+ on the stimp; FAST); 6600 sq. ft. greens on average (LARGE)Field: 144 players; Top 60 and Ties make the cutDes

Sam's PGA Bets - 2020 U.S. Open

Tournament: BMW Championship

Course: Olympia Fields (North Course)

All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook

<h1>Fast Facts</h1>

<ul>
	<li><a name="_Hlk44487634"></a><a name="_Hlk32930654">Par 70 approx. 7366 yards</a></li>
	<li>Bentgrass Greens (12+ on the stimp; FAST); 5800 sq. ft. greens on average (TOUR average)</li>
	<li>Field: 70 players; No cut</li>
	<li>Former tournaments hosted: 2003 US Open (won by Furyk); 2015 US Am. (won by Bryson)</li>
	<li>Avg. green size approx. 5000 sq. ft. (SMALL); bentgrass greens (with mix of Poa)</li>
	<li>Links style</li>
	<li>Corollary Courses: Glen Oaks, Ridgewood, Colonial, Firestone, TPC Harding Park, Old White TPC, Aronimink CC</li>
	<li>Course Fit Targets: Tony Finau, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Tiger Woods, Kevin Na, Jason Day, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama</li>
</ul>

Welcome to the BMW Championship and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest &ldquo;bang for your buck&rdquo; sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.

It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn&rsquo;t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!

Recap: Wow&hellip; what a performance from DJ as he shot a 60 on Friday (only the SECOND lowest round of the day and never looked back, only making 3 bogeys all tournament and finishing at -30. Unfortunately, I saw that DJ number and didn&rsquo;t hit, which in hindsight, would have been nice; however, we cashed both Top 20 bets to have another solid 10+ unit week and bringing us above 70 units for the year! I always stress to our discord members the importance of matchups and Top 10s/Top 20s as even without the winner you can have a very profitable week if these guys lower down the board can have a solid round or two on the weekend. Palmer had an excellent tournament and was consistent throughout while we needed a solid round 4 from Kokrak that he topped with an eagle on his 72nd hole to lock in that Top 20 as well. Hope to get a winner here as it&rsquo;s been a while at the no cut, 2nd event of the FedEx!

&nbsp;

<h3>Wyndham Championship: +14.5 units 
YTD: +74.0 Units</h3>

&nbsp;

<h2>Tony Finau &ndash; 31/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Not sure if I&rsquo;ve ever actually bet Finau outright since I&rsquo;ve said to anyone and everyone how he can&rsquo;t close and has very low win equity week in and week out despite being an elite talent&hellip; I will acknowledge while he still hasn&rsquo;t won anything big, this year he really seems to be locked in most weeks and ranks 1st in my course fit model this week (SG: Total on comp course) and as an elite long iron player on a longer course, this should suit him well. We always get worse odds on Finau than we probably should since he&rsquo;s very popular, but I like his chances this week in a limited field with no cut and the fact that he sits 29th in the FedEx Cup ranks means he needs a solid tournament to get to East Lake.

&nbsp;

<h2>Tiger Woods &ndash; 35/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Similar to Finau, Tiger REALLY needs a good week to get to East Lake as I think a 4th or better will do it, otherwise, he&rsquo;s out. Tiger has continued to make cuts and strike his irons well, now gaining strokes on Approach in all 5 tournaments in 2020 while his putter has shockingly let him down. Maybe it&rsquo;s just because I&rsquo;m a Tiger superfan, but his round this past Sunday looked like the rust was gone and he was laser focused and I expect that to continue here&hellip; he&rsquo;ll be pin seeking as he knows his position and knows he has to take advantage of what should be a tougher test than last week.

&nbsp;

<h2>Hideki Matsuyama &ndash; 40/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

It&rsquo;s hard to believe that Hideki hasn&rsquo;t won since the WGC in 2017 as it feels like week in and week out, he&rsquo;s so elite with his iron game and despite being a horrible putter, has numerous high finishes over the last few seasons. He&rsquo;s been slightly inconsistent the last few weeks, but still has gained T2G in every tournament since February except one and on a week with small greens, Hideki is actually an excellent scrambler, it just matters if he can convert the putts inside 10 feet (normally doesn&rsquo;t). Similar to DJ, when he gets hot, he can storm the field and I think he continues his good form of several Top 25s in a row and contends this week.

&nbsp;

<h2>Adam Scott &ndash; 45/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Always difficult to get a read on Scott as he plays so few tournaments, especially this season, but had it not been for a disastrous Saturday last week where he missed I think 8 putts inside 6 feet (that&rsquo;s amazing), his finish would have been much better. Like Tiger, I was encouraged by his ball striking and despite being hit or miss the last few, he&rsquo;s gained strokes T2G in each tournament and ranks Top 10 in my course fit model for the week. I think this is a great number for an elite talent who just had to shake off some rust after the restart.

&nbsp;

<h2>Joel Dahmen Top 10/Top 20 &ndash; 10/1 and 4/1 (1 Unit each)</h2>

&nbsp;

Dahmen is interesting because he seemingly has random weeks where things just kind of go to hell and he&rsquo;s never in much contention or playing well. He has had a fantastic 2020 with 4 Top 12s or better, a few Top 20s, and a quiet T10 at the PGA Championship a few weeks ago. Besides a random back to back blip at Muirfield where he lost 4000 strokes T2G, he&rsquo;s gained over 4 strokes T2G in 6 of his last 9 tournaments and if he can putt average, he has solid upside. While these numbers aren&rsquo;t tremendous for T10/T20, it&rsquo;s only a 70-man field with no cut so he can shake off a bad day if necessary.

&nbsp;

<h2>Tony Finau over Viktor Hovland &ndash; -106 (2 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

Hovland is a serious talent and everyone saw him with an awesome Sunday at TPC Boston; however, his last 2 tournament finishes have come a LOT from his putting, which has historically been the weakest part of his game. Since the Memorial, he&rsquo;s only gained with his irons in 2 of 4 tournaments and lost Off the Tee in 3 of his last 4. Finau couldn&rsquo;t putt last week but everything else was still on point so I think this is a lot of value we&rsquo;re getting as we want to favor consistent ball strikers over hot putters.

&nbsp;

<h2>Adam Scott over Paul Casey &ndash; -110 (2 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

Casey is so annoying. Randomly pops at the PGA Championship when no one is on him and gains over 7 strokes on APP and then reverts right back to sucking the next to weeks, losing on APP win both with middling T2G and SG: OTT. I think Scott should be able to win this matchup easily as Casey has been all over the place and similar to Scott, when his putter goes bad&hellip; it goes real bad. Take the better long-term ball striker here and a guy who is on the up with less volatility.

 Tournament: BMW ChampionshipCourse: Olympia Fields (North Course)All Current Odds are via DK SportsbookFast FactsPar 70 approx. 7366 yardsBentgrass Greens (12+ on the stimp; FAST); 5800 sq. ft. greens on average (TOUR average)Field: 70 players; No c

Sam's PGA Bets - 2020 BMW Championship

Tournament: THE NORTHERN TRUST

Course: TPC Boston

All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook/Bovada

<h2>Fast Facts</h2>

<ul>
	<li><a name="_Hlk44487634"></a><a name="_Hlk32930654">Par 71 approx. 7342 yards; Arnold Palmer design (Hanse redesign in 2006)</a></li>
	<li>Bentgrass Greens (12+ on the stimp; FAST); 5800 sq. ft. greens on average (TOUR average)</li>
	<li>Field: 125 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut</li>
	<li>Easy to hit fairways and easy to hit greens</li>
	<li>Average winning score around -17 or -18 with average cut around +2</li>
	<li>Corollary Courses: Liberty National, TPC Twin Cities, Ridgewood CC, Colonial CC, Glen Abbey</li>
	<li>Course Fit Targets: Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Brandt Snedker, Matt Kuchar, Patrick Reed, Kevin Na, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matusyama, Bryson DeChambeau, Gary Woodland, Brian Harman</li>
</ul>

Welcome to the NORTHERN TRUST and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest &ldquo;bang for your buck&rdquo; sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.

It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn&rsquo;t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!

Recap: From a viewing perspective, that was quite the end of the tournament as Jim Herman holds off Billy Horschel to win at what I think was around 600/1 pre-tourney odds. I know AC over at BetKerma had a Horschel ticket so I was rooting for him to make that birdie putt on the 72nd hole but it wasn&rsquo;t to be&hellip; congrats to Herman and I can safely say he was not on my radar last week. Annoying week as Rose blew up, Henley came up a few short and although we broke even, Burns and Frittelli missed out on the top 10s by 1 shot which would have been an awesome return without having an outright. Kizzire did Kizzire stuff as he made a ton of birdies but too many triples/doubles to not contend for the Top 20. Brooks missing the cut made the Fleetwood a non-sweat however and despite a meh week I&rsquo;ll always take a breakeven over a losing week. Onto the first leg of the FedEx Cup!

Wyndham Championship: +0.1 units 
YTD: +59.5 Units

&nbsp;

<h2>Patrick Reed &ndash; 28/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Top 20 in this field in SG: Approach, SG: T2G, SG: Off the Tee, and SG: Putting on Bentgrass&hellip; that&rsquo;s a good start. Add to this the fact that he always excels in strong fields, he&rsquo;s a former winner of the NORTHERN TRUST (albeit a different course) and has 3 Top 13 finishes or better in his last 4 starts makes me like this number a lot.

&nbsp;

<h2>Tiger Woods &ndash; 40/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Similar to Brooks but much less of a sample size, Tiger has been ball striking just fine in his 2 events since the restart, he just can&rsquo;t make any putts. He&rsquo;s back to warm weather (SF was cold) and has been gearing up for a packed schedule over the next several weeks. Although it was a long time ago, Tiger has won at this course, is a strong Bentgrass putter, and his misses off the day shouldn&rsquo;t hurt him too badly.

&nbsp;

<h2>Matthew Wolff &ndash; 66/1 (1 Unit)/Top 10 5/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

<h3>note: Has been bet down to 50/1, which I still like</h3>

Stormed the leaderboard at the PGA Champ to finish T4 and has been on fire the last few events gaining strokes T2G and on Approach in his last 4 starts. I tend to shy away from long shots at this event since normally the cream rises to the top in loaded events but Wolff has the extreme birdie/eagle upside that you need to win this event, is very strong Off the Tee, and if he can make a few more putts than he did at the PGA Champ, he is very live to win here.

&nbsp;

<h2>Ryan Palmer Top 20 &ndash; +375 (2 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

Palmer is very hit or miss as he has a 2nd, 8th, 15th, and then a 43rd with 2 missed cuts in his last 6 starts; however, he hits the ball sneaky far for someone who&rsquo;s older and can get very hot when he finds the putter. 5th in the field in SG: T2G, 4th in SG: Approach, and 8th in Opportunities Gained, if Palmer can putt even average he has T20 or better upside as we saw him come runner up at the Memorial (very strong field) and hey! There&rsquo;s hardly any water on the course, which is key for him.

&nbsp;

<h2>Jason Kokrak Top 20 - +550 (2 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

Another guy who is a little streaky and has just as much blow up potential as he does ceiling performance potential, but Kokrak crushes the ball and despite not incredible form, he&rsquo;s gained strokes on Approach and T2G in three straight events. Kokrak should be able to take advantage of these par 5s and get some eagle looks and if he putts even average, we saw his birdie-making ability as last week he had a very strong 1-2 days where he went 7 under or better.

 Tournament: THE NORTHERN TRUSTCourse: TPC BostonAll Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook/BovadaFast FactsPar 71 approx. 7342 yards; Arnold Palmer design (Hanse redesign in 2006)Bentgrass Greens (12+ on the stimp; FAST); 5800 sq. ft. greens on average 

Sam's PGA Bets - 2020 NORTHERN TRUST

Tournament: Wyndham Championship

Course: Sedgefield CC

All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook

<h2>Fast Facts</h2>

<ul>
	<li><a name="_Hlk44487634"></a><a name="_Hlk32930654">Par 70 approx. 7127 yards; Donald Ross design</a></li>
	<li>Bermuda Greens (11-12 on the stimp; average); 6500 sq. ft. greens on average (LARGE)</li>
	<li>Field: 156 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut</li>
	<li>Easy to hit fairways and higher GIR rate than TOUR average (71% here compared to 65% AVG)</li>
	<li>48 bunkers, 13 water hazards</li>
	<li>Birdie fest with non-penal rough and easy ARG game</li>
	<li>Average winning score around -20 with average cut around -2 to -3</li>
	<li>Corollary Courses: East Lake (TOUR Championship), PGA National (Honda Classic), Sea Island Resort (RSM Classic), TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude/WGC), Waialae CC (Sony Open)</li>
	<li>Course Fit Targets: Webb Simpson, Justin Rose, Jim Furyk, Chez Reavie, Sergio Garcia, Charles Howell III, Brooks Koepka, Kevin Kisner, Tommy Fleetwood, Billy Horschel</li>
</ul>

Welcome to the Wyndham Championship and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest &ldquo;bang for your buck&rdquo; sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.

It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn&rsquo;t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!

Recap: Came so close with Day&hellip; just couldn&rsquo;t make enough putts but I&rsquo;m glad it seemed like the process was right. Spieth&hellip; yikes, just continued to not find the fairway, Sergio continued to putt like trash, and Palmer had a weak first few days to not have much of a chance. I did end up betting English Top 10/Top 20 but didn&rsquo;t officially put it in here so I won&rsquo;t count it towards our YTD units. Palmer did end up beating Chez which was good but overall a meh week where a very top heavy/bunched leaderboard made Top 10s/Top 20s tough and all the studs making the cut made that even more difficult. Excited to still be well up for the year and onto the last event before the FedEx Cup playoffs!

WGC FedEx: -4 units 
YTD: +59.4 Units

&nbsp;

<h2>Justin Rose &ndash; 22/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Quietly finished Top 10 last week by gaining over 4 strokes with his irons and putting extremely well which is the prototype for winning this event. When looking at comp courses and other Donald Ross designs, Rose rates out #2 as he has numerous Top 5 finishes at the Sony Open (Waialae), the TOUR Championship (East Lake), and long term is one of the better iron players in the world. We need a guy who can go low to the tune of -20 or lower and on these Bermuda Greens (his best putting surface historically), Rose is just the guy.

&nbsp;

<h2>Russell Henley &ndash; 55/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

If you looked back over the last year or so, you wouldn&rsquo;t believe it but Henley actually used to be an extremely good putter&hellip; Bermuda is by far his best putting surface, historically, and in my stat model for the week he ranks 1st in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green, 2nd in SG: Approach, 1st in Opportunities Gained (stat from FantasyNational.com), and if he could just putt average, he will be right in the&nbsp; mix as he&rsquo;s gained over 4 strokes on APP in each tournament of his last 4.

&nbsp;

<h2>Sam Burns &ndash; 125/1 (0.5 Units), Top 10 11/1 (1 Unit), Top 20 5/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Bermuda Burns! I feel like Burns is another young guy who has a win coming very, very soon and I love him at these odds in this field. He&rsquo;s gained strokes T2G in 4 straight events, gained on Approach in his last 2 events, and has the &ldquo;get hot&rdquo; ability to go uber low and make enough birdies to win this event. There are still some studs up top so while I&rsquo;ll go in on an outright, I love the Top 10/Top 20 numbers as well as if he&rsquo;s not near the top he has the ability to fully backdoor with a strong finish on the weekend.

&nbsp;

<h2>Dylan Frittelli Top 10 &ndash; 6.5/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Maybe it&rsquo;s a narrative only, but Euros have had decent success at this event with prior winners including Stenson, Sergio, Si Woo Kim, and hilariously, Arjun Atwal. Frittelli is a gamer and can make a TON of birdies when he gets hot, similar to when he shot his way up the leaderboard towards the beginning of the restart on Sunday and had the clubhouse lead for a few hours. He ranks 2nd in the field in T2G, 16th in SG: Approach, 1st in Birdies or Better, 20th in Opportunities Gained, and 30th in SG: Putting on Bermuda. I love his upside and I think this is a solid top 10 number (I also like the Top 20 as well).

&nbsp;

<h2>Patton Kizzire Top 20 &ndash; 9/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Has he looked good in a long time? Certainly not; however, he at least is a former winner on tour, ranks 2nd in the entire field in SG: Putting on Bermuda, and in his most recent start gained strokes with his irons. This is definitely a longshot to even finish Top 20 given his form but he has been decent on Comp Courses with an 8th place finish at East Lake 2 years ago, and has a win and 13th at the Sony Open at Waialae in Hawaii. Hopefully Kizzire can find some form back this week and follow his 13th place in this event last year with another one or better!

&nbsp;

<h2>Tommy Fleetwood &gt; Brooks Koepka &ndash; +110 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

I&rsquo;m honestly still surprised Brooks hasn&rsquo;t WD from this event, but I like the value we&rsquo;re getting with Fleetwood here due to his recent form. His irons have been off since the restart, but long term, he&rsquo;s an elite Approach player and now that he&rsquo;s found a rhythm with his putter, I think this is the type of event where he can shine, make a ton of birdies, and finish near the top. I don&rsquo;t see Brooks caring too much at this event (now he&rsquo;s going to win) and I think we&rsquo;re getting a good number on an elite Euro talent.

 Tournament: Wyndham ChampionshipCourse: Sedgefield CCAll Current Odds are via DK SportsbookFast FactsPar 70 approx. 7127 yards; Donald Ross designBermuda Greens (11-12 on the stimp; average); 6500 sq. ft. greens on average (LARGE)Field: 156 players;

Sam's PGA Bets - 2020 Wyndham Championship

Tournament: PGA Championship

Course: TPC Harding Park

All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook

<h2>Fast Facts</h2>

<ul>
	<li><a name="_Hlk44487634"></a><a name="_Hlk32930654">Par 70 approx. 7234 yards</a></li>
	<li>Bentgrass Greens (11-12 on the stimp; average); 7000 sq. ft. greens on average (LARGE)</li>
	<li>Field: 156 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut</li>
	<li>Narrow fairways; 25-30 yards on average</li>
	<li>Thick rough up to 3-4 inches</li>
	<li>Hosted 2015 WGC Match Play, 2009 President&rsquo;s Cup, 2005 WGC</li>
	<li>Corollary Courses: Olympic Club, Torrey Pines, TPC Potomac, Colonial, Riviera, Bethpage Black</li>
	<li>Course Fit Targets: Bubba Watson, Adam Scott, Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau, Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia</li>
</ul>

Welcome to the PGA Championship and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest &ldquo;bang for your buck&rdquo; sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.

It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn&rsquo;t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!

Recap: Blah week for bets as the matchup came through but my flip flopping on whether to put 2 units on Rory or 2 units on JT turned out well&hellip; not great as I chose Rory and he looked off just all 4 days. Sergio and Reed never threatened while Nick Taylor looked solid on Day 1 but ultimately stalled and couldn&rsquo;t get that Top 20. Webb handily beat Bryson though despite a few bad holes that really cost him a higher finish. Onto the FIRST MAJOR OF THE YEAR!

WGC FedEx: -4 units 
YTD: +65.2 Units

&nbsp;

<h2>Jason Day &ndash; 35/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Three top 10s in his last 3 events in which he has gained on both APP and T2G and I think this course sets up quite well for him. Day, despite his back issues, is still a long hitter, ranking Top 30 in the field in Driving Distance, and with the expected tougher play, there are few better around the green and saving par. Day has previous success in California, is a previous PGA Championship winner, and I think he&rsquo;s going to shock people this week by becoming a 2 time major winner.

&nbsp;

<h2>Jordan Spieth &ndash; 70/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

I can&rsquo;t remember the last time I bet Spieth as his off the tee game has made me nervous for some time now, but he&rsquo;s such an elite putter and such a good scrambler, that I think these are more than fair odds for him to capture the elusive grand slam. Spieth has struck the ball fantastic the last 2 tournaments and his normal best asset, the putter, has been rather flat. If he finds the putter this week, mitigates the wayward drives, I think he is very live&hellip;

&nbsp;

<h2>Harris English &ndash; 100/1 (0.5 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

Not really a &ldquo;sexy&rdquo; pick by any measure but I always like to have a few long shots and English surprisingly fits the mold here. He has 3 straight Top 20s, has gained around the green and in SG: Putting in every event since the RSM in November 2019, and has gained on APP and T2G in his last 3 tournaments&hellip; I don&rsquo;t want to write up 100 bets, but I like this number for a guy who excels on Bentgrass and like the Top 10/Top 20 odds as well.

&nbsp;

<h2>Ryan Palmer &ndash; 125/1 (0.5 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

Another guy that I also like the Top 10/Top 20 odds but I think Palmer can actually win if he somehow finds resemblance of a putter this week&hellip; he has 3 top 15 finishes in his last 5 events and in the last 2 events, he&rsquo;s gained 13.1 and 9.7 strokes T2G and 10.9 and 4.2 strokes on APP. Further, he finished 15th last week with elite ball striking but losing over 4 strokes putting&hellip; is it unlikely he wins? Sure, but there is barely any water on the course and that&rsquo;s his ultimate kryptonite.

&nbsp;

<h2>Kevin Streelman Top 20 &ndash; 4/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Streelman has cooled off a little since his back to back Top 7 finishes but has still gained Off the Tee and T2G in 4 straight events and has played well in his career in California, most recently finishing runner up at Pebble in February. His putter and scrambling ability make me a little nervous, but if he continues his ball striking prowess of the last few months I see no reason why he doesn&rsquo;t have Top 20 upside.

&nbsp;

<h2>Corey Conners Top 20 &ndash; 4/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Last event was the first one where Conners lost strokes on APP since the Honda Classic in March while he&rsquo;s gained T2G and Off the Tee in his last 7 straight events while doing his normally losing strokes putting and around the green. The scrambling ability makes me hesitant, but I like how big these greens are so if he continues to hit GIRs at an extremely high clip, I think he can climb this leaderboard.

&nbsp;

<h2>Ryan Palmer &gt; Chez Reavie &ndash; +100 (2 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

I like both of these guys this week, but I think we&rsquo;re getting solid value on Palmer. I think Palmer is more of a grinder while also being an elite ball striker while Chez can get hot, sure, but if things start to go bad, he can really tank and start making big numbers. I think both have winning and/or Top 10 equity, but I like the value we&rsquo;re getting with Palmer here.

&nbsp;

<h2>Tiger Woods &gt; Brooks Koepka &ndash; +130 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

This is probably a homer bet and betting against Brooks in any major is terrifying, but I think we&rsquo;re getting serious value because of it. Tiger doesn&rsquo;t have much form at all but I&rsquo;ll play this based on the fact that Tiger hit it great a few weeks ago but couldn&rsquo;t putt and I expect Brooks to actually struggle a little bit as his fade may hurt him with this rough all being out to the right&hellip; Maybe Brooks storms this field and wins his 3rd straight but I think +130 for the best player of all time is a decent bet&hellip; right?

 Tournament: PGA ChampionshipCourse: TPC Harding ParkAll Current Odds are via DK SportsbookFast FactsPar 70 approx. 7234 yardsBentgrass Greens (11-12 on the stimp; average); 7000 sq. ft. greens on average (LARGE)Field: 156 players; Top 65 and Ties ma

Sam's PGA Bets - 2020 PGA Championship

<h1>Tournament: WGC &ndash; FedEx St. Jude Invitational</h1>

Course: TPC Southwind

All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook

<h2>Fast Facts</h2>

<ul>
	<li><a name="_Hlk44487634"></a><a name="_Hlk32930654">Par 70 approx. 7250 yards</a></li>
	<li>Bermuda Greens (11-12 on the stimp; average); 4300 sq. ft. greens on average (SMALL)</li>
	<li>Field: 78 players; No Cut</li>
	<li>Narrow Zoysia fairways</li>
	<li>Water on 10 holes with a TON of water balls on Holes 12 and 18</li>
	<li>2019 Winning Score (first year as a WGC no cut event): -13 by Brooks Koepka</li>
	<li>Corollary Courses: TPC Sawgrass, Sedgefield, PGA National, East Lake, TPC Scottsdale</li>
	<li>Course Fit Targets: Webb Simpson, Byeong Hun An, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Henrik Stenson, Xander Schaufflele, Paul Casey</li>
</ul>

Welcome to the WGC FedEx and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest &ldquo;bang for your buck&rdquo; sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.

It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn&rsquo;t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!

Recap: Well the outright winning streak for BetKarma discord ended; however, was still able to get a profit with Werenski holding steady and getting that Top 10 (also a Top 5) and the 2 matchup bets easily cashed as Merritt missed the cut and Stallings made it while Richy edged out Gooch on Sunday to win that as well. We had a runner with Homa but he couldn&rsquo;t make enough putts on Sunday along with a weak Friday round. Congrats to Michael Thompson on a long-awaited return to the winner&rsquo;s circle and lets find some more winners this week and next week for the FIRST MAJOR OF 2020.

3M Open: +9.5 units 
YTD: +69.2 Units

Earlier bets in the week:

Dustin Johnson 28/1 (1 Unit)

Sergio 55/1 (1 Unit)

&nbsp;

<h2>Rory McIlroy &ndash; 11.5/1 (2 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

The cream tends to rise to the top in loaded/WGC events and I think another top stud gets it done this week most likely. Not much to say about Rory that people don&rsquo;t know but he&rsquo;s ranked 1st in the field in Birdie or Better, 5th in SG: Off-The-Tee, 13th in T2G, and although the finishes haven&rsquo;t been as high as pre-COVID, he&rsquo;s on his best putting surface Bermuda. If Rory gets out to an early lead, or close to it on Day 1 or 2, I don&rsquo;t see him relinquishing the lead and I think he captures his 4th WGC.

&nbsp;

<h2>Patrick Reed &ndash; 35/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Gets it done in a much different way than Rory but he won the last WGC back in February and it done in a similar fashion to how he wins events: was elite around the green and gained a ton of strokes putting. You need a solid Scrambling game here with how small these greens are (4300 sq. ft. on average) and although you need to make birdies, saving par is equally important. Reed can be up and down but plays well in strong fields, has 2 Top 10s in his last 6 starts, and ranks 10th in Bogey Avoidance, 7th in SG: Off-The-Tee, 11th in Birdie or Better, and 15th in SG: Putting on Bermuda.

&nbsp;

<h2>Sergio Garcia &ndash; 70/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

I never really bet Sergio ever, but it feels like a really long time since he captured a win. Historically a terrible putter, he&rsquo;s actually on the only putting surface that he gains strokes putting, about 0.07 per round, and actually has a very solid around the green game despite poor putting. He&rsquo;s an elite ball striker that ranks 10th in SG: T2G, 23rd in SG: Approach, 11th in Greens in Regulation, and 25th in SG: Off-The-Tee. If he can putt even average, his ball striking can elevate him to a win at very long odds&hellip;

&nbsp;

<h2>Kevin Na Top 10 &ndash; 5/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

From a guy I rarely bet to a guy I definitely never bet, Kevin Na has been playing pretty well and in typical Na fashion, has also had a few WDs. Super volatile player who will do nothing for several events in a row and then catch a hot putter and go nuts&hellip; he&rsquo;s gained on SG: Approach in every event since the restart, has gained over 2 strokes T2G in every event, and if he can limit his wayward shots off the tee, his biggest weakness, in a small field, he can absolutely get up there for a Top 10.

&nbsp;

<h2>Nick Taylor Top 20 &ndash; 4/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Doesn&rsquo;t have a ton of form or stats to go off since he&rsquo;s only played twice since the restart, but in those starts he&rsquo;s gained 4.2 and 2.3 strokes on Approach and struggled with the putter and around the green. Historically, he&rsquo;s not a bad scrambler, can get hot with the putter like he did for his win back in February at Pebble Beach, and in a field much smaller than normal, he definitely has T20 or better upside. 28th in SG: Approach, 31st in GIRs, and if he can limit the mistakes, he has some the potential to cash us a T20.

&nbsp;

<h2>Webb Simpson &gt; Bryson DeChambeau &ndash; +110 (2 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

Webb on Bermuda greens + Webb on a Par 70 track + Webb ranking 1st overall in SG: Total on the comp courses for the week + getting him at plus money makes me love this matchup. Webb has been so elite over the past year with a win and T8 in 2 of his last 3 and while Bryson has a ton of newfound strength and power, he has not yet locked in his irons, as he ranks outside the Top 50 in this field in SG: APP. I think Webb is very live to win this event and we&rsquo;re getting money on our side&hellip; love this bet.

 Tournament: WGC &ndash; FedEx St. Jude InvitationalCourse: TPC SouthwindAll Current Odds are via DK SportsbookFast FactsPar 70 approx. 7250 yardsBermuda Greens (11-12 on the stimp; average); 4300 sq. ft. greens on average (SMALL)Field: 78 players; N

Sam's PGA Bets - WGC FedEx

Tournament: 3M Open

Course: TPC Twin Cities

All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook

<h2>Fast Facts</h2>

<ul>
	<li><a name="_Hlk44487634"></a><a name="_Hlk32930654">Par 71 approx. 7450 yards</a></li>
	<li>Bentgrass Greens (12 on the stimp; average); 6500 sq. ft. greens on average (larger)</li>
	<li>Field: 156 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut</li>
	<li>Second year on TOUR</li>
	<li>Very high GIR% rate (almost 75% compared to TOUR average 63%</li>
	<li>Water on 14 holes (27 hazards total); 72 total bunkers</li>
	<li>2019 Cut: -3</li>
	<li>2019 Winning Score: -21</li>
	<li>Corollary Courses: TPC Boston, Bay Hill, PGA West</li>
	<li>Course Fit Targets: Dustin Johnson, Emiliano Grillo, Paul Casey, Keith Mitchell, Matthew Wolff (2019 winner), Troy Merritt, Lucas Glover, Hudson Swafford, Charley Hoffman, Sam Burns</li>
</ul>

Welcome to the 3M Open and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest &ldquo;bang for your buck&rdquo; sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.

It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn&rsquo;t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!

Recap: Finally got back on the horse as we hit Rahm for our 6th winner since the swing season and packed on some more winnings with the English Top 20 (very close to the T10 as well) and an easy matchup win of Cantlay over Bryson. I knew Rahm was close to a win and despite his massive lead, I was nervous on Sunday with the extreme conditions and his propensity to get in his head&hellip; he held steady and despite that complete BS penalty after the round won comfortably and reached #1 in the world. I&rsquo;m glad my sucker bet of Ryan Moore continued to fail as he looked solid on Day 1 and then just fell apart worse and worse through the weekend to finish in the range of T40 or worse. Still, great tournament to get those overall units back up as we&rsquo;re up just shy of 60 on the season! Onto a very, very weak field&hellip;

Memorial Tournament: +23.7 units 
YTD: +58.7 Units

Earlier bets in the week:

Erik Van Rooyen 45/1 (1 Unit)

Max Homa 60/1 (1 Unit)

Harris English 35/1 (1 Unit)

&nbsp;

<h3>Sam Burns &ndash; 45/1 (1 Unit)</h3>

&nbsp;

This bet doesn&rsquo;t feel as good because similar to EVR, it seems like everyone and their mother is betting this and just based on narrative, how often does a massive Twitter community bet work out? Burns I think has been close to a win for a long time and has the massive birdie and eagle upside that we&rsquo;re looking for at TPC Twin Cities. He ranks 2nd in Opportunities Gained (stat per FantasyNational.com that tracks approaches to 15 feet or less), 20th in SG: Off-The-Tee, 10th in Birdie-or-Better and Eagles Gained, and 17th in SG: Ball Striking. He has all the tools to compete, has been playing well as he ranks 7th in SG: Total over the last 6 events and can storm the field if he finds the putter.

&nbsp;

<h3>Sam Ryder &ndash; 90/1 (0.5 Units)</h3>

&nbsp;

I&rsquo;ve always been a fan of Ryder and while he isn&rsquo;t a household name and doesn&rsquo;t hold the pedigree of some guys who are a few years off the Korn Ferry, he does have massive birdie upside. Ryder ranks 13th in SG: BS, 26th in SG: Approach, 22nd in SG: OTT, 25th in BoB/Eagles, and 10th in SG: Putting on Bentgrass. Ryder has gained with his irons in the last 2 events and quietly finished T7 at the Workday Charity Open 2 weeks ago in what I think could be a similar scoring fest. Love the value here as Ryder looks to capture his 1st win on TOUR.

&nbsp;

<h3>Adam Schenk Top 10 and Top 20 &ndash; 9/1 and 4/1 (1 Unit Each)</h3>

&nbsp;

I don&rsquo;t think I&rsquo;ve ever written up, or bet, Adam Schenk until this week but in a weak field we have to find some value guys somewhere. Schenk has gained in SG: OTT in his last 6 tournaments, ranks #1 in the field in that category, and is coming off of 2 Top 40 finishes in much strong fields. He has gained on APP and T2G and normally an above average putter, he lost strokes putting in both events. He tends to get very hot or very cold so we&rsquo;ll know early on, but I like these odds when factoring in my probability for his T10 and T20 finish.

&nbsp;

<h3>Richy Werenski Top 10 &ndash; 9/1 (1 Unit)</h3>

&nbsp;

Another name I never thought I would write up, but Werenski gained 6.3 strokes on APP at the workday, 6.2 T2G and in an event that doesn&rsquo;t have a loaded field up top, Werenski can definitely ball strike his way into the Top 10. His preferred putting surface is Bent and when looking at his average strokes gained on different course types, he excels much better in birdie fests compared to conditions like last week where you need to grind out pars. 18th in SG: APP, 13th in BoB/Eagles, and 16th in SG: Putting on Bent gives me some confidence in this number.

&nbsp;

<h3>Chase Seiffert Top 20 &ndash; +450 (1 Unit)</h3>

&nbsp;

We&rsquo;re dealing with a much smaller sample size with Seiffert, but his irons since the swing season have been LIGHTS OUT, as he gained on APP in every single week since the RSM and T2G in every event except one. He has the ability to get hot with the putter, his best surface is Bentgrass and if he can hit the driver at least average, he has at least Top 20 or better upside.

&nbsp;

<h3>Scott Stallings &gt; Troy Merritt &ndash; +105 (1 Unit)</h3>

&nbsp;

I think we&rsquo;re getting some value on Stallings here as he rates out better than Merritt in every category except putting on Bent and I think Stallings is in better overall form. Stallings ranks 11th in both SG: BS and SG: APP, 18th in Opportunities Gained, and 6th in BoB/Eagles. Further, I like the consistency as Stallings has made all 4 cuts since the restart compared to Merritt who has missed two.

&nbsp;

<h3>Richy Werenski &gt; Talor Gooch &ndash; -106 (1 Unit)</h3>

&nbsp;

I like Talor Gooch this week but when looking at these 2 guys, Werenski has made 4/4 cuts with a T21 and Gooch has a 17th, 43rd, a WD, and 3 MCs. Gooch has a great OTT game but has only gained on APP in 1 of his last 5 starts so while I think Gooch is a solid DFS play, I give an edge to Weresnki here.

 Tournament: 3M OpenCourse: TPC Twin CitiesAll Current Odds are via DK SportsbookFast FactsPar 71 approx. 7450 yardsBentgrass Greens (12 on the stimp; average); 6500 sq. ft. greens on average (larger)Field: 156 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cutSe

Sam's PGA Bets - 2020 3M Open

Tournament: The Memorial Tournament

Course: Muirfield Village

All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook

<h2>Fast Facts</h2>

<ul>
	<li><a name="_Hlk44487634"></a><a name="_Hlk32930654">Par 72 approx. 7450 yards</a></li>
	<li>Fast Bentgrass/Poa Greens approx. 5000 sq. ft. (approx. TOUR average)</li>
	<li>Field: 133 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut</li>
	<li>Average Cut: +2</li>
	<li>Average Winning Score: -14</li>
	<li>Corollary Courses: Augusta National, Bay Hill, Firestone, PGA National</li>
	<li>Course Fit Targets: Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Dustin Johnson, Matt Kuchar, Patrick Cantlay, Tiger Woods, Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, Paul Casey, Sungjae Im, Lucas Glover</li>
</ul>

Welcome to the Memorial Tournament and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest &ldquo;bang for your buck&rdquo; sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.

It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn&rsquo;t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!

Recap: Not a great tournament from a betting perspective as I managed to stay cold but the tournament in general was a spectacular one to watch and amazing to see the grit from Morikawa to come up clutch in the end against arguably the best or 2nd best player in the world right now. Hideki lost his putter per usual, Hadwin never got it going, Homa managed to miss the cut on the number for what seems like the nth week in a row, and Rose&hellip; well Rose was an unreal disaster. I&rsquo;m ready to get back on the horse and get those YTD units above 50 in the most loaded field on the PGA TOUR in over 8 years I believe&hellip;

Workday Charity Open: -11 units 
YTD: +36.8 Units

Earlier bets in the week:

Tiger 25/1&hellip; always (2 Units)

Justin Rose 55/1 (0.5 Units)

Byeong Hun An 100/1 (0.5 Units)

Brendan Steele 200/1 (0.2 Units)

&nbsp;

<h3>Jon Rahm &ndash; 20/1 (1 Unit)</h3>

&nbsp;

I wish I had gotten in earlier on Rahm as he opened 25 or 26/1 in some places, but he FINALLY looked like the beast that he is last Sunday as he shot a 64 to go from nearly DFL to Top 30. Rahm has gained strokes T2G in every tournament but one since May 2019 and has gained SG: OTT in every tournament he&rsquo;s played in 2020. After gaining 4 strokes on APP last week at Muirfield I think Rahm has locked in his game again and has the ability to storm this field and win in this loaded field.

&nbsp;

<h3>Abraham Ancer &ndash; 50/1 (1 Unit)</h3>

&nbsp;

I think since the PGA restart besides maybe Hovland and Bryson, Ancer has been one of the most elite ball strikers on TOUR. He ranks 4th in this field in SG: BS, 2nd in SG: APP from 150+ yards, and 9th in Birdie or Better. He is so close to a win and despite being a short hitter, has gained SG: OTT in every event since January. If he continues his extremely high GIR% and doesn&rsquo;t have to scramble TOO often (not his strong suit), he can ball strike his way to a long-awaited victory.

&nbsp;

<h3>Joaquin Niemann &ndash; 70/1 (0.5 Units)</h3>

&nbsp;

Niemann is basically Hideki light&hellip; since the restart, his SG: APP numbers: 2.4/7.4/1.9/4.1 and T2G has gone 1.4/11.2/3.6/4.1 while only gaining over 2 strokes putting once. Niemann held the lead 2 years ago in one of his very first tournaments as a pro before faltering on Sunday so I like that he knows how to compete at this course and if he can just putt average, he is very live to win as one of the few longer shots this week.

&nbsp;

<h3>Harris English Top 10/Top 20 &ndash; 8/1 and 4/1 (1 Unit each)</h3>

&nbsp;

For some reason Harris was DFS chalk in the first week back in April, missed the cut, and has now taken a few weeks off after a follow up Top 20 at the RBC Heritage. Quietly, English is one of the better ball strikers on TOUR and has a strong short game with Bent being his ideal putting surface and having gained strokes around the green in his last 8 events. He hasn&rsquo;t played this tournament in many years but I think this is good odds on a guy who should be solid odds to make the cut with Top 10 or better upside.

&nbsp;

<h3>Ryan Moore Top 20 &ndash; +450 (2 Units)</h3>

&nbsp;

I&rsquo;ll continue to die on the Moore Top 20 bet until it hits for me but despite having missed a few cuts in a row he has gained in SG: OTT in his last 5 tournaments, gained almost 2 strokes on APP at the Travelers and normally a long term above average putter, he&rsquo;s lost on the greens in 3 of his last 4. He&rsquo;s on his best putting surface (kind of) as Poa is his strong suit, then Bent and in terms of course history, he&rsquo;s made 8 of 9 cuts at Memorial with 4 Top 20 finishes in that span. I think he finds some form this week.

&nbsp;

<h3>Patrick Cantlay &gt; Bryson DeChambeau &ndash; +120 (1 Units)</h3>

&nbsp;

Bryson is an absolute machine and can get unreal hot at any time; however, I think we&rsquo;re getting some value with Cantlay who looked unconscious last Sunday ratting off what I think was 7 or 8 birdies and an eagle and coming off a win last year at Memorial and a 4th the year before. Bryson has been crushing the ball, but I think due to his newfound distance hasn&rsquo;t locked in his wedges quite yet as he ranks 61st in APP from 150+ and 68th in Opportunities Gained (stat from FantasyNational.com; approaches to 15 feet or less). I like Cantlay to keep his consistent form and edge out Bryson at what I think is great value.

 Tournament: The Memorial TournamentCourse: Muirfield VillageAll Current Odds are via DK SportsbookFast FactsPar 72 approx. 7450 yardsFast Bentgrass/Poa Greens approx. 5000 sq. ft. (approx. TOUR average)Field: 133 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cu

Sam's PGA Bets - 2020 Memorial Tournament

Tournament: Workday Charity Open

Course: Muirfield Village

All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook

<h2>Fast Facts</h2>

<ul>
	<li><a name="_Hlk44487634"></a><a name="_Hlk32930654">Par 72 approx. 7450 yards</a></li>
	<li>Fast Bentgrass/Poa Greens approx. 5000 sq. ft. (approx. TOUR average)</li>
	<li>First of 2 back to back events here with this week&rsquo;s version featuring a few longer holes, shorter rough, slower greens, and a drivable 14th hole on the weekend</li>
	<li>Field: 157 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut</li>
	<li>Average Cut (Memorial Tournament): +2</li>
	<li>Average Winning Score (Memorial Tournament): -14</li>
	<li>Corollary Courses: Augusta National, Bay Hill, Glen Abbey, TPC Boston</li>
	<li>Course Fit Targets: Rickie Fowler, Marc Leishman, Justin Rose, Byeong Hun An, Matt Kuchar, Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day</li>
</ul>

Welcome to the Workday Charity Open and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest &ldquo;bang for your buck&rdquo; sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.

It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn&rsquo;t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!

Recap: Terrible week from a betting perspective as Kevin Na WD in round 2 (classic Kevin Na), Sned had a horrific putting performance on his Thursday front nine (as well as a 4 putt on a par 5 on Friday) to take himself out of it early, and Duncan faltered on the weekend after a strong showing on Thu/Fri. The one that hurt bad though was Cam Davis needing to par his final hole on Friday to make the cut after a solid day but instead hit a terrible chip to bogey and miss it by 1. So it goes, and although we&rsquo;re still way up on the year it&rsquo;s time to get those units back up above 50 in aggregate.

RBC Heritage: -5.5 units 
YTD: +48.3 Units

&nbsp;

<h3>Hideki Matsuyama &ndash; 17/1 (1.5 Units)</h3>

&nbsp;

Looked like he shook off the rust last week after a piss-poor performance in his return 2 weeks ago and is now at a track he&rsquo;s had great success in the past with a win, 2 Top 6s, and a 13th in 6 attempts. Always an elite ball striker, Hideki is one of the best in the world on approaches, paramount to succeed here, and despite being a horrific putter he&rsquo;s decent in SG: Around the Green&hellip; I think he ends his drought.

&nbsp;

<h3>Adam Hadwin &ndash; 50/1 (1 Unit)</h3>

&nbsp;

This seems too low for a guy like Hadwin but he&rsquo;s consistently a great putter, has gained on SG: APP in all 3 events since the restart, and is on his best putting surfaces (Bent/Poa). If he keeps his consistent putter and avoids the thick rough off the fairways, he can make enough birdies to get to the -18 or -20 range that I expect the winner to be on Sunday.

&nbsp;

<h3>Bud Cauley Top 10 &ndash; 8/1 (1 Unit)</h3>

&nbsp;

Bud is never a very exciting play as at times it seems like he&rsquo;s just saving par and not scoring, at least on DraftKings. I like his Top 10 upside as he finished runner up here in 2019 and ranks 4th in the field in Scrambling when he does miss the green. His stats won&rsquo;t pop as he has limited rounds in the last few tournaments including a forced WD with a cautionary COVID case, but he did gain almost 3 strokes on APP at the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago but couldn&rsquo;t putt very well.

&nbsp;

<h3>Adam Long Top 10 &ndash; 16/1 (1 Unit)</h3>

&nbsp;

Extremely volatile player as he seemingly has a good 3 days or so out of 4 or just starts off poorly and misses the cut by 1000 shots. However, Long does rank 1st in this field in Scrambling, 15th in Par 4s from 450-500 (6 of them this week) and has the ability to get hot and make a run of birdies. His most recent start he finished 24th at the Travelers, gaining on APP all 4 days.

&nbsp;

<h3>Max Homa Top 20 &ndash; 4/1 (2 Units)</h3>

&nbsp;

I keep betting Homa and playing him in DFS waiting for him to pop and return to the fire form he had before the COVID break and hoping it comes here. Homa has 3 Top 10s in 2020, 3 Top 25s and has gained strokes on APP in every tournament since the Farmers with the exception of his first tournament back at the Charles Schwab. His around the green game can be shaky but if he continues his strong APP/T2G play, I see no reason he doesn&rsquo;t have at least Top 20 upside or better&hellip;

&nbsp;

<h3>Henrik Norlander Top 20 &ndash; +550 (2 Units)</h3>

&nbsp;

He&rsquo;s about to be chalk on DraftKings which could be the ultimate chalk bomb, but he led the field in T2G last week and is riding some solid, solid form/stats. He has gained 3.6/0.8/8.3 strokes on APP in each of the 3 tournaments he&rsquo;s played and gained 4.5/2.4/8.6 T2G on top of it. The main concern is that he&rsquo;s a terrible putter, but if he can putt even average (i.e. Hideki/Benny An every week), he can absolute storm up the leaderboard with his elite iron play.

&nbsp;

<h3>Maverick McNealy Top 10/20 &ndash; 11/1 and 5/1 (0.5 Units on each)</h3>

&nbsp;

McNealy was in awesome form prior COVID and after 2 kind of blah tournaments, he looked great at the Rocket Mortgage, gaining 1.5 strokes on APP and finishing T8. His best putting surfaces in his short career by far are Bent and Poa so if he can continue his consistency there and build off last weeks performance, I like him going back to back top 10s or at minimum, a Top 20 finish.

&nbsp;

<h3>Justin Rose &gt; Brooks Koepka &ndash; +110 (2 Units)</h3>

&nbsp;

I like Rose as an outright, but I missed a solid number, so I&rsquo;ll take his matchup against Brooks instead. Rose had a horrific Friday 2 weeks ago to miss the cut and burn a lot of people, but ever since he came back and switched off of those Honma irons, he&rsquo;s gained in 7/10 rounds on APP all while having a somewhat cold putter (save a few days). In his career at Muirfield, he has a win, 2nd, 6th, 2 Top 8s, and a 13th, clearly showing some comfortability here. I know Brooks can pop and win any tournament, but his irons haven&rsquo;t looked great and I think there&rsquo;s solid value with Rose here.

 Tournament: Workday Charity OpenCourse: Muirfield VillageAll Current Odds are via DK SportsbookFast FactsPar 72 approx. 7450 yardsFast Bentgrass/Poa Greens approx. 5000 sq. ft. (approx. TOUR average)First of 2 back to back events here with this week

Sam's PGA Bets - 2020 Workday Charity Open

Tournament: Rocket Mortgage Classic

Course: Detroit Golf Club

All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook

<h2>Fast Facts</h2>

<ul>
	<li><a name="_Hlk32930654">Par 72 approx. 7400 yards</a></li>
	<li>Medium Fast Bentgrass/Poa Greens approx. 5200 sq. ft. (approx. TOUR average)</li>
	<li>Easy to hit fairways (almost 70%) with a premium on Approach from 125-175/GIRs</li>
	<li>Field: 156 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut</li>
	<li>2019 Cut: -5</li>
	<li>2019 Winning Score: -25</li>
	<li>Corollary Courses: Riviera, Silverado Country Club, Sedgefield CC, East Lake GC</li>
	<li>Course Fit Targets: Bubba Watson, Tony Finau, Kevin Na, Hideki Matsuyama, Bryson Dechambeau, Webb Simpson, J.T. Poston, Brandt Snedeker</li>
</ul>

Welcome to the Rocket Mortgage Classic and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest &ldquo;bang for your buck&rdquo; sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.

It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn&rsquo;t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!

Recap: Bad week for me in DFS and bad week on the bets; I really had confidence in that Scheffler number for a Top 20 but he missed the cut on the number after bogeying both Par 5s on Friday (gross) and just could never find the putter. The Leishman bet looked very live after Friday but I&rsquo;m not quite sure what happened on the weekend&hellip; anyone? We technically got 1 unit back as Scheffler beat out Conners despite both missing the cut but a down week&hellip; but hey, we have hit several winners so if you&rsquo;ve been tailing we are still WAY WAY up but lets get some more live sweats this week at the Rocket Mortgage!

RBC Heritage: -4 units 
YTD: +53.8 Units

&nbsp;

<h2>Kevin Na &ndash; 40/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Well I don&rsquo;t like Kevin Na and I don&rsquo;t like betting Kevin Na&hellip; but you can&rsquo;t let biases curb your betting or DFS play. Last week Na looked healthy (I THINK/HOPE?) and struck it well, gaining 4.7 T2G, 2.2 on APP, and 5.6 Putting to ultimately finish T5. At the Charles Schwab, he gained 2.5 T2G, 2 on APP, and lost strokes putting, but I like how he&rsquo;s striking his irons for a course whereas we saw last year you need to stick everything from 125-175 and grab a hot putter. He didn&rsquo;t play this course last year, but I don&rsquo;t think history will be overly important; this number has dropped to 35/1 on DK Sportsbook but if you shop, I&rsquo;m sure you can find 35 to 40/1 in most places.

&nbsp;

<h2>Brandt Snedeker &ndash; 45/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Excellent Donald Ross player? Check. Ranks #1 in the field on Poa/Bent mix? Check. Looked atrocious last week with his irons? Check. I&rsquo;m not going to weight his performance last week TOO much despite it not looking good as long term Sneds ranks 11th in the field in Par 4 BoB %, 27th in BoB/Eagles and has been known in his career to excel on Donald Ross designs. As mentioned above with Na, you need to get your irons going, grab a hot-fire putter, and you can compete&hellip; which I think Sneds has all the tools to do so and compete in a weaker field than the last few.

&nbsp;

<h2>Tyler Duncan &ndash; 125/1 (1 Unit) to Win and +450 Top 20 (1.5 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

I&rsquo;m all over Tyler Duncan this week in both outright bets and DFS. He has struck the ball fantastic the first few tournaments back, making all 3 cuts and gaining strokes on APP and T2G in all 3 as well. He is not a great putter, but in a weaker field, similar (somewhat) to the field he won at the RSM back in November, if he can grab a hot putter and continue his iron play, I love this longshot number.

&nbsp;

<h2>Cameron Davis Top 20 &ndash; +550 (1 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

Hasn&rsquo;t looked as good as some other guys since the break, but I believe in Davis&rsquo; long term talent and he excels on Par 5s; with 4 this week, I wanted to look at more than what I believe is a flawed stat in &ldquo;Par 5 scoring.&rdquo; Davis is first in this field in &ldquo;Going for the Green in 2&rdquo; %, going for it at nearly an 80% clip, and with 3 of the 4 being reachable for most of the field, I think that could be a differentiator here. Per his longer-term stats, Davis ranks 13th in SG:BS, 14th in Opportunities Gained (FantasyNational stat), 19th in Par 4 BoB, and 12th in overall BoB/Eagles. I like this value for a Top 20 and hope he can find the putter on what is his best surface (Bent).

 Tournament: Rocket Mortgage ClassicCourse: Detroit Golf ClubAll Current Odds are via DK SportsbookFast FactsPar 72 approx. 7400 yardsMedium Fast Bentgrass/Poa Greens approx. 5200 sq. ft. (approx. TOUR average)Easy to hit fairways (almost 70%) with a

Sam's Par 5 - PGA Bets

Tournament: Travelers Championship

Course: TPC River Highlands

All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook

<h2>Fast Facts</h2>

<ul>
	<li><a name="_Hlk32930654">Par 70 approx. 6800 yards</a></li>
	<li>Medium Fast Bentgrass/Poa Greens approx. 5000 sq. ft. (SMALLER than TOUR average)</li>
	<li>Easy to hit fairways (almost 70%) with a premium on Approach from 125-175/GIRs</li>
	<li>Field: 156 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut</li>
	<li>Average cut around Even</li>
	<li>Average winning score around -15 (last 10 years)</li>
	<li>Corollary Courses: Pebble Beach, TPC Boston, Riviera CC, Torrey Pines</li>
	<li>Course Fit Targets: Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Gary Woodland, Patrick Cantlay, Jason Day, Vaughn Taylor, Paul Casey, Bryson DeChambeau, Jim Furyk, Matthew Fitzpatrick</li>
</ul>

Welcome to the Travelers Championship and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest &ldquo;bang for your buck&rdquo; sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.

It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn&rsquo;t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!

Recap: Well I picked Webb in my OAD (one and done) pool but didn&rsquo;t bet him&hellip; SMART! Overall down week as Kisner never really got it going, including missing a couple short putts to not even make the cut, while DJ had a few bad holes himself (triple on day 1), to never really be in contention. Hindsight is always 20/20, but if I had known we would get a winning score at -20 or better, I probably wouldn&rsquo;t have bit on Hadwin as I like him to win in somewhat weaker fields where yes he can go low, but probably not that low against some of the best players in the world. We did get some money back with the H2H as Varner missed the cut, but ultimately a disappointing week and we will move on to ANOTHER loaded field at TPC River Highlands!

RBC Heritage: -2.5 units 
YTD: +57.8 Units

&nbsp;

<h2>Marc Leishman &ndash; 55/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

We have a little less to go on since he didn&rsquo;t play last week, but I think this is a great price for someone who has excelled at comparable courses and actually looked much better than his MC 2 weeks ago. Leishman had a horrific triple on his first hole and never really got it back, but he gained 3.9 strokes on APP over 2 days but lost 2.7 Around the Green and another 2.1 putting to take himself out of it. I said in my DFS article, as well as above in quick facts, that comp courses I like are Riviera, Torrey Pines, and Pebble Beach&hellip; Leish won Farmers (Torrey Pines) back in January. Further, he&rsquo;s had solid success at TPC River Highlands with a win back in 2012 as well as finishes of 21st/17th/9th/11th over the last 8 attempts.

Gary Woodland &ndash; 55/1 (1 Unit)

I always favor Gary on any shorter course because it takes the driver out of his hands and he can just hit the fairway with that stinger all day long. He keeps having 1 or 2 holes per round that just blows him up, but the ball striking is there as he ranks 1st in Approach in the field and over the last 2 tournaments has gained 8.8 and 2.7 strokes on Approach and is actually in the midst of a strong putting streak. Further, Woodland ranks 25th in SG: Ball Striking, 5th in Opportunities Gained (FantasyNational.com stat), 9th in GIRs Gained, and 4th in Par 4 Birdies or Better. Love the value we&rsquo;re getting here.

&nbsp;

<h2>Max Homa &ndash; 125/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

In the past year, Homa has finished 9th at the Farmers (Torrey Pines) and 5th at Riviera and has continued his good ball striking post-COVID. Last week he gained over 6 strokes on APP, over 6 T2G, and lost a combined 6.4 strokes Around the Green and putting&hellip; He doesn&rsquo;t have any history to speak of here, but I think this is a solid value for a guy who&rsquo;s hitting it well and has shown his propensity to win in strong fields (Wells Fargo in 2019).

&nbsp;

<h2>Scottie Scheffler &ndash; +250 (2 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

I don&rsquo;t normally like dipping this low for Top 20, but I like Scheffler a ton this week with how good of a ball striker he is and his ability to go low (maybe even make eagles on these 2 Par 5s). He ranks 20th in the field in Ball Striking, and despite his lackluster finish at Charles Schwab (T55), he gained 3 strokes on Approach and 2 strokes T2G while losing over 6 strokes (similar to Homa) around the green and putting. I think he&rsquo;s one of the best young talents on TOUR right now and I expect a high finish this week.

&nbsp;

<h2>Tournament Match Up &ndash; Scottie Scheffler (Even) Over Corey Conners (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Hate to bet against one of my favorite guys, but I think this is great value for Scheffler. Conners is an elite ball striker but looked a little shaky the last 2 days of the RBC Heritage. If he doesn&rsquo;t hit the greens, he has a very weak short game that can get him into trouble. I like Scheffler&rsquo;s ability to Scramble a little better (albeit not an amazing putter either) as well as Scheffler&rsquo;s go low ability over Conners.

 Tournament: Travelers ChampionshipCourse: TPC River HighlandsAll Current Odds are via DK SportsbookFast FactsPar 70 approx. 6800 yardsMedium Fast Bentgrass/Poa Greens approx. 5000 sq. ft. (SMALLER than TOUR average)Easy to hit fairways (almost 70%) 

<h1>Tournament: RBC Heritage</h1>

Course: Harbour Town GL

All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook

<h3>Fast Facts</h3>

<ul>
	<li><a id="_Hlk32930654" name="_Hlk32930654">Par 71 approx. 7000 yards</a></li>
	<li>Fast Bermuda Greens approx. 3700 sq. ft. (MUCH SMALLER than TOUR average)</li>
	<li>Driving Accuracy is key; only about 55% of fairways are hit</li>
	<li>Field: 154 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut</li>
	<li>Average cut around +2</li>
	<li>Average winning score around -12</li>
	<li>Corollary Courses (Pete Dye tracks): Colonial CC, Copperhead, TPC Potomac, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Southwind, Waialae CC</li>
	<li>Course Fit Targets: Matt Kuchar, Webb Simpson, Justin Rose, Dustin Johnson, Charles Howell III, Patrick Reed, Kevin Kisner, Sungjae Im, Jim Furyk, Russell Knox</li>
</ul>

Welcome to the RBC Heritage and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest &ldquo;bang for your buck&rdquo; sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.

It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn&rsquo;t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!

Recap: Returns next week 
YTD: +60.3 Units

<h2>Dustin Johnson &ndash; 45/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Has DJ looked very strong at the gimmick matchup a few weeks ago or last week? No. This is a bet on the long term talent and just a crazy number to see when last year, albeit a weaker field and he was in much better form, I think DJ opened at something like 5/1 to win&hellip; putting is extremely variant as it is and it feels like DJ just has not putted remotely well in a very long time (hasn&rsquo;t gained more than 2 strokes since Tournament of Champions in January and before that was last year&rsquo;s PGA Championship); again, this is a bet on long-term form and the fact that we probably won&rsquo;t see odds this high again

&nbsp;

<h2>Kevin Kisner &ndash; 55/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

I feel like I&rsquo;ve seen a lot of people get on the Kisner train this week and it makes a ton of sense&hellip; he showed some rust last week but still gained over 1 stroke on APP and 5.4 strokes T2G. Interestingly, he lost strokes putting for the first time since January and when it comes to Pete Dye courses, Kisner is one of the best. In his last 6 appearances at Harbour Town, Kisner has made all 6 cuts and had finishes of 11th/7th/2nd. He has come runner up at the PLAYERS (Pete Dye) and excels in 2 of the key stats this week: Fairways Gained (17th in the field) and Scrambling (10th in the field).

&nbsp;

<h2>Adam Hadwin &ndash; 125/1 (0.5 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

Longer shot, but I thought Hadwin looked solid last week and has the course fit that I&rsquo;m looking for at a Pete Dye track: hits fairways, solid short game, and excels from that 125-175 range on approaches. He gained 2.6 on APP last week but didn&rsquo;t finish high on the leaderboard due to a few doubles; however, I like to see that he gained in ball striking 3 of 4 rounds combined with the fact that he&rsquo;s won at one of the comp courses I&rsquo;m using this week, Copperhead (Valspar Championship). If Hadwin can capture a hot putter, he could find himself in contention come Sunday.

&nbsp;

<h2>Ryan Moore &ndash; Top 20 +450 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

I don&rsquo;t like going against form normally, but since there isn&rsquo;t much to speak of, I think this is a solid price for a Top 20 from a guy who used to be decently consistent. Moore isn&rsquo;t a long hitter but hits a ton of fairways (10th in the field), is solid on approaches from 125-175 (30th in the field) and is my 5th ranked player in Strokes Gained on Pete Dye Courses. He has had some success at Valspar with 2 Top 5s and finished 18th here at the Heritage 2 years ago. If he putts well, I think a Top 20 is fully in the cards.

&nbsp;

<h2>Tournament Match Up &ndash; Adam Hadwin (-110) Over Harold Varner III (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Varner looked like a stud the first few days before falling short on the weekend, in which he gained 0.4 strokes on APP on Saturday and 0.5 strokes on Sunday after gaining over 5 the first 2 days. Further, he showed a weak short game on the weekend which I think will hurt him here as you are forced to scramble a lot with the small greens. I think Hadwin beats out Varner in putting ability on top of the fact that Varner&rsquo;s worst putting surface by far is Bermuda. Both players rank near the same in Fairways Gained and Approach play but with Hadwin taking the clear edge in Scrambling and Pete Dye history, I&rsquo;ll take him here to beat Varner in the full tournament matchup.

 Tournament: RBC HeritageCourse: Harbour Town GLAll Current Odds are via DK SportsbookFast FactsPar 71 approx. 7000 yardsFast Bermuda Greens approx. 3700 sq. ft. (MUCH SMALLER than TOUR average)Driving Accuracy is key; only about 55% of fairways are 

Tournament: The PLAYERS Championship

Course: TPC Sawgrass

All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook

Fast Facts

<ul>
	<li>Par 72 approx. 7200 yards</li>
	<li>Fast Bermuda Greens approx. 5000 sq. ft. (SMALLER than TOUR average/13 on stimp)</li>
	<li>Water Hazards on 14/18 holes with many bunkers scattered throughout (88)</li>
	<li>Average winning score around -13 to -14</li>
	<li>Being played in March for the 2nd year after a big switch which makes rough easier/cooler temps</li>
	<li>Corollary Courses (Pete Dye tracks): Harbour Town GL, TPC Louisiana, TPC River Highlands, Whistling Straits, Kiawah Island Resort Course</li>
</ul>

Welcome to the PLAYERS Championship and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest &ldquo;bang for your buck&rdquo; sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.

It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn&rsquo;t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!

Brief Arnold Palmer Invitational Recap: Never really had any runners as the brutal conditions caused for one of the lower winning scores in a non-major in several years with guys grinding out pars rather than racking up birdies. Homa had a decent finish but was never in contention and Ancer barely made the cut for us. McNealy missed the cut on the number after bogeying the last hole on Friday while Champ was just an utter disaster. One bright spot is that Poulter squeaked out a matchup win against Kevin Na on the last day to bring back 1 unit and limit the losses. Still up BIG for the year so let&rsquo;s keep it going in one of the biggest tournaments of the year!

&nbsp;

<big>API: -2 Units 
YTD: +51.8 Units</big>

&nbsp;

<h2>Hideki Matsuyama &ndash; 25/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Strongest field of the year warrants some bets on the top players in the world, logically. I think Hideki has gone far too long without a victory and he remains one of, if not the best ball-striker on TOUR. He&rsquo;s 4th in the field in SG: Ball-Striking, 10th in SG: Approach, 2nd in Birdie-or-Better, and 16th in GIRs. Everyone knows he has putting woes but with these faster greens, I think it levels the playing field a little bit. While this course can definitely breed very different, and somewhat random, winners, winners don&rsquo;t come in with bad form and taking out very windy/tough conditions last week, Hideki has made several cuts in a row with a 6th/5th/16th/12th in 4 of his last 6 starts along with 2 Top 10s at this event.

&nbsp;

<h2>Gary Woodland &ndash; 50/1 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

This is a great number on someone who hits a ton of greens, is very accurate off the tee, and is riding solid form as well. Gary comes in with 3 Top 10s and a 12th in 4 of his last 6 starts. Per his stats, Woodland is Top 10 in SG: Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, SG: Par 5s and Top 15 in Bogey Avoidance and GIRs. He has all the stats/form to contend but it will come down if he can catch a hot putting week. I like this set up for him despite his mixed history as he&rsquo;s a bomber who won&rsquo;t need driver and get hit stingers with an iron or fairway wood to put himself in good positions to score.

&nbsp;

<h2>Jimmy Walker &ndash; Top 20 +800 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Former major winner who got struck with Lyme Disease a few years ago that really hindered his health and PGA TOUR career. He has since gotten form back and has played well at TPC Sawgrass in the past with 10+ years of experience with a 2nd, 6th, and 15th to his name. Walker comes in with 2 straight Top 25s and he gained over 6 strokes Tee-to-Green and on APP last week at the Arnold Palmer. While he may not have a ton of win equity, I can definitely see a Top 20 and that&rsquo;s great price.

&nbsp;

<h2>Russell Henley &ndash; Top 20 +500 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Definitely not the sexiest name out there, but Henley has regained some form as of late after what seems like a year or two of inconsistency. He has an 8th/17th in his last 2 starts, the latter (Honda) in which he gained over 10 strokes on Approach but just couldn&rsquo;t find the putter. His course history is mixed but instead of high finishes at Sawgrass I just like to see course experience in which he&rsquo;s played 7 times and holds 2 Top 25s but has missed 3 cuts. Henley is on by far his best putting surface (Bermuda) and ranks 25th in the field in SG: Ball-Striking, 11th in SG: Approach, 4th in Bogey Avoidance, and 19th in GIRs. Like Walker, he may not win, but I love him to finish Top 20 or higher.

&nbsp;

<h2>Tournament Match Up &ndash; Max Homa (-110) Over Corey Conners (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

As has been the theme of this article, I&rsquo;m taking form over stats/course history this week and Homa is in arguably some of the best form of anyone with several made cuts in a row that includes 3 Top 10s and 3 Top 25s in his last 7 starts. On the other hand, normally a green-hitting machine, Conners has been off lately, missing 3 of his last 4 cuts and finishing 50th in Mexico. Conners is an incredibly weak scrambler and therefore putter and in terms of finding your game/getting back into form, Sawgrass is definitely not the place to do it with so many bunkers and water hazards. I will take Homa&rsquo;s elite form and stats (Top 25 in all 6 stat categories I&rsquo;m weighing) over Conners who is struggling a little bit.

 Tournament: The PLAYERS ChampionshipCourse: TPC SawgrassAll Current Odds are via DK SportsbookFast FactsPar 72 approx. 7200 yardsFast Bermuda Greens approx. 5000 sq. ft. (SMALLER than TOUR average/13 on stimp)Water Hazards on 14/18 holes with many b

Tournament: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge

All Current Odds are via DK Sportsbook

Fast Facts

<ul>
	<li>Par 72 approx. 7400 yards</li>
	<li>Bermuda Greens approx. 7500 sq. ft. (larger than TOUR average)</li>
	<li>Water Hazards on 8/18 holes with many bunkers scattered throughout</li>
	<li>Average winning score around -12 or -13</li>
	<li>Corollary Courses: TPC Sawgrass, Copperhead, TPC Boston (s/o to Jeff Bergerson for this one)</li>
</ul>

Welcome to the Arnold Palmer Invitational and welcome to my weekly betting piece. I focus a lot of time on the DFS side of things for Golf but I have actively bet outrights/props/Top 5s, 10s, and 20s for many years as well as Golf is one of the biggest &ldquo;bang for your buck&rdquo; sports to bet on in the world. Albeit not as likely, each year it seems we see either a 300/1 or even 500/1 winner on the PGA Tour and hitting just one of those can pay for your next few YEARS of golf betting.

It is a different strategy than most sports and managing your bankroll and understanding reasonable ROI is key. What do I mean by that? Most weeks I will be placing outright bets on guys who might be 25/1 at the lowest or up to 150/1, or higher. Picking 1 golfer out of the normal field of 156 to win is extremely difficult in itself so we have to temper our expectations and while we want to hit winners and do our due diligence every week, hitting a winner weekly just isn&rsquo;t going to happen. However, when we do hit, it will pay for weeks, months, or even a year of profitability which makes the sport so fruitful. By playing a few units per week we can go from down 10 units to up 60 (net) with one golfer. Please let me know if you have anything in specific you want to see in this article moving forward but my plan is to give out a lower number, or two, outright bet and follow up with a few Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 bets that I like as well. Hit me up in our BetKarma discord at any time if you want to pick my brain about anything!

Brief Honda Classic Recap: Bang! 2nd winner in 3 weeks as Sungjae gets what I believe is a win that was a long time coming with a great Sunday round to outlast a charging Mackenzie Hughes as well as Tommy Fleetwood. Feels good to be up a ton as we now have some safety for several weeks as we look to continue the hot streak but can also take some volatility. Further, Harris English snuck into the Top 20 for us at 3/1 and Dufner was close&hellip; a bad Sunday kept him out of there and Byeong Hun An had a fantastic Friday-Sunday to actually backdoor a Top 5 and beat Shane Lowry handedly. Still, a positive +31-unit week as we move to up well over 50 units for the year!

Honda Classic: +31 Units 
YTD: +53.8 Units

&nbsp;

<h2>Abraham Ancer &ndash; 55/1 (0.5&nbsp;Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

The above number is, as noted above, per DK Sportsbook but I would recommend line shopping as I found an 80/1 and there are many 66/1 or 70/1 numbers out there. Ancer will be popular in the DFS world this week and for good reason as he&rsquo;s gained on SG: Approach in his last 5 measure events, SG: Off-The-Tee in his last 3 events and has finishes of 2nd/43rd/12th in his last 3 starts. You need to have a stellar SG: OTT game to compete here, which Ancer ranks Top 20 in the field, and he&rsquo;s a different player then he was when he MC last year; he&rsquo;s now 29th in the world and full of confidence. Like him here.

&nbsp;

<h2>Max Homa &ndash; 90/1 (0.5 Units)</h2>

&nbsp;

Homa has really been on a tear his last several tournaments with a 5th at the Genesis (major-like field), 14th, 6th, and 9th in his last 4 starts. The keys to this course are SG: Off-The-Tee, where Homa ranks 21st in the field, approaches from 200+, where Homa ranks 4th in his last 50 rounds (c/o of FantasyNational.com). He ranks 14th in Birdies or Better Gained, and Top 30 in both overall SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green so I love this number for Homa to continue his hot form and capture his 2nd win on TOUR.

&nbsp;

<h2>Cameron Champ &ndash; Top 20 +500 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

Not necessarily a Champ fan by any means as I feel he&rsquo;s overrated, but on a course where I&rsquo;ve said now twice above how important SG: OTT, Champ ranks #1 in the field. He also ranks 9th in BoB Gained, 7th in Opportunities Gained (shots that hit the green and are &lt;15 feet from the pin) and is Top 25 in SG: T2G. I&rsquo;ve seen tournaments before, albeit not as strong, where Champ is a 30/1 or less outright to win so I think we&rsquo;re getting value here with someone who if they putt well can easily make a run.

&nbsp;

<h2>Maverick McNealy &ndash; Top 20 +450 (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

McNealy is still quite new to the TOUR but has come in with a bang as he&rsquo;s made 11 straight cuts, which includes 3 Top 15s or better in 3 of his last 4, one of which was an 11th at the very tough PGA National last week. He ranks 19th in the field in SG: T2G, 12th in Opps. Gained, 33rd in SG: OTT, and 32nd in SG: APP/ Approaches from 200+ yards. With a smaller field I think like Champ we&rsquo;re getting great value here.

&nbsp;

<h2>Tournament Match Up &ndash; Ian Poulter (+105) over Kevin Na (1 Unit)</h2>

&nbsp;

DK Sportsbook is giving great value here with the +105 and with Poulter&rsquo;s outstanding course history here I&rsquo;ll take that all day. He has made every cut at Bay Hill since 2009 and with the expected windy conditions this weekend, I expect him to handle those better than Na. Neither player is a very long hitter, but Poulter has the advantage in both Par 4 and Par 5 scoring as well as approaches from 200+.

 Tournament: Arnold Palmer InvitationalCourse: Bay Hill Club and LodgeAll Current Odds are via DK SportsbookFast FactsPar 72 approx. 7400 yardsBermuda Greens approx. 7500 sq. ft. (larger than TOUR average)Water Hazards on 8/18 holes with many bunkers

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